Is the UN going the way of the League of Nations?

[Xudeedi]

Is the UN going the way of the League of Nations?

An illegal occupation and a silent world can only enhance Somalia’s Devolution

 

By Ali H. Abdulla

July 26 2007

 

With indifference, the world watches Somalia’s ongoing catastrophic slide towards a devastating civil war, and turns deaf ears to the cries of millions of Somalis as they cling precariously to dear life and anxiously wait for world attention while living in squalor under trees for whose shelter they often have to pay. Thousands more risk their lives in wooden boats to escape the inferno engulfing their country.

 

The actual winners in the recent illegal and brutal Ethiopian invasion of Somalia are the warlords who have been presented to the world as a legitimate transitional government. The reality is that these same warlords have systematically and brutally destroyed Somalia and rendered it hell on earth for the past 15 years. The illegal invasion rewards them handsomely instead of prosecuting them for the war crimes that they had committed against their own people and country.

 

Since the collapse of the Somali State, Ethiopia has consistently armed Somalia’s warlords in order to sustain and prolong Somalia’s civil war. Through it all, the killing and torture of innocent civilians, rape of women, starvation of children and the total chaos in Somalia have continued unabated.

 

Ethiopia’s illegal invasion of Somalia is a gross violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and opens a new and ugly chapter for the United Nations and the African Union. Under the occupation, Somalia is bound to remain unstable, and her people unable to reconcile. The presence of Ethiopian troops on Somali soil is cause for aggravated resentment and hostility among the Somali people against their Ethiopian neighbors.

 

It is in fact hard to fathom the silence of the International Community and their inability to condemn the invasion, which to Somalis is equivalent to the invasion of Ethiopia by Fascist Italy in 1935. The reaction of the UN and AU to the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia is similar to the reaction of the League of Nations to the Italian invasion. The acrimonious and bloody history between Somalia and Ethiopia alone should make it clear to all concerned that this invasion can only lead to a sharp escalation of Somalia’s plight and to the worsening of future relations between the two countries.

 

Ethiopia’s historical role

 

By arming the different warlords and using them to divide Somalia into fiefdoms that pose no threat to its expansionist policies, Ethiopia played a major role in bringing chaos and anarchy to Somalia during the reign of Mengistu and a bigger role in sustaining the anarchy during the reign of Zenawi. Even well before the current invasion, Ethiopia constantly violated the territorial integrity of Somalia by sending its troops across the border to hunt for suspected opponents of Znawi's dictatorial rule and to punish Somali villagers for allegedly giving sanctuary to these opponents.

 

The atrocities committed in many Somali villages across the border from Ethiopia in the years of 1996 and 1997 attest to these illegal and brutal incursions.

 

In geopolitical terms, landlocked Ethiopia has always perceived Somalia as a potential outlet to the sea. Imam Ahmad Gurey’s heroic campaigns of the early 16th century were an attempt to defend Somali territories and frustrate Abyssinian designs.

 

In the late 19th century, Ethiopia collaborated with European powers to divide Somali territory, a process that continued through the mid 20th century and culminated in the illegal British handover of the Somali Hawd and Reserved Area to Ethiopia. For a few decades, it seemed that Ethiopia’s annexation of Eritrea and with it the major Red Sea ports of Assab and Massawa had put its eastward expansion into Somalia on hold. But Eritrea’s independence was nothing short of a disastrous blow to Ethiopia and its quest for dominance in the Horn of Africa.

 

What was a blessing for Eritrea, however, was indirectly a misfortune for Somalia, for the bully of the Horn could only turn east, where collapsed Somalia lay ripe for the taking.

 

Zenawi probably wants to rectify the shortsightedness portrayed by his predecessor Menleik when the latter rejected the British offer of exchanging the port of Zeila for the Hawd and Reserved area. This would have given Ethiopia direct access to the sea and allowed it to play an even bigger role in the affairs of the region. What Menelik could not achieve in his lifetime with British collaboration, Zenawi covets with military might and the collaboration of Somali puppets.

 

Future ramification of the invasion and occupation

 

A sovereign nation’s invasion by its neighbor has a far reaching ramification for both the invaded and the invading country. A current and clear example is the murky relationship between Syria and Lebanon as a result of Syrian intervention in the Lebanese crisis with the blessing of the Arab League. The consequences of that supposedly benign intervention became more visible with the 2005 forced eviction of Syria from the Lebanon. The Lebanese society has become polarized into pro-Syria and anti-Syria camps, which threatens the very fabric of the Lebanese society. Because of that polarization, Lebanon today is on the brink of a devastating civil war. In a similar fashion, Somali nationalists who oppose the Ethiopian invasion will always clash with those loyal to Ethiopia, leading to more bloodshed and more anarchy in Somalia.

 

Making things even worse, Ethiopia will have in its satellite enclaves inside Somalia, which remain more devoted to Ethiopia than to Somalia, a sure weapon to keep Somalia weak, fragmented, and above all in bloody turmoil. Nothing serves Ethiopia better than a feeble Somalia dependent upon the good graces of Ethiopia for survival. The counter argument that Ethiopia is just too destitute and too stretched to effectively dominate Somalia misses the point given the fact that a superpower has opted to bankroll its misadventures.

 

In the final analysis, the latest chapter in the saga of the Somali tragedy is a concurrence of an age-old Ethiopian interest in Somali territories and a misguided use of American might, which can only make Ethiopian dominance over Somalia a dreadful reality unless its people unite and stand-up to the aggressors.

 

The Transitional Federal Government (TFG)

 

As for the TFG and its role in this debacle, the verdict should not be in doubt. After its shameful collaboration with Somalia’s historical enemy, the Karzi style government has no credibility and lacks the support of the Somali people. The TFG which condoned the bombing of the very same people it is supposed to protect does not deserve to stay in power, and cannot be expected to bring back stability to Somalia.

 

Legitimate questions must be raised as to its role in the cold blooded murder of the many innocent young Somalis and herdsmen by US jets that violated Somali Airspace. The cold blooded murder of innocent Somalis for the sake of a few wanted phantom radicals did not justify the crime. Both the TFG president and his Prime Minister are clients of the Ethiopian government and cannot be expected to be loyal to the Somali people. The TFG lacked legitimacy even before entering Mogadishu in Ethiopian tanks since half of the country opted to stay away from the Warlord dominated body.

 

Those of us who see the TFG as the only solution should revise their stand and look with open eyes at the current situation. Warlords control the most important posts in the city of Mogadishu: office of the mayor, chief of the police and many other sensitive posts. A festering wound cannot be healed with an infected bandage. These individuals carry a dangerous virus that can only devour Somalia in the end.

 

At the same time, there are elements in the Somali society who benefit from the continuous chaos in the country and spoil any attempts to form a viable government. Ordinary Somalis are caught in the middle of these spoilers and the Ethiopian backed warlords both of which are detrimental to their existence and progress.

 

The role of the International Community

 

The International community cannot afford to watch with indifference as Somalia slides into an unpredictable future that can only add instability to the region and exasperate a bad situation. Recent events in the southern port city of Kismayo and the resurgence of Piracy along Somali shores are testaments to the inability of the TFG and its Ethiopian backers to pacify Somalia. The AU, the UN and the Arab League have to play their proper role in Somalia and fulfill their obligations towards a member state.

 

Some of the actions that they can undertake are:

 

The speedy deployment of acceptable neutral peace-keepers after consultation with all the stakeholders regarding the composition and mandate of these forces.

The immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somali after the deployment of the neutral forces.

The convening of an all-inclusive reconciliation conference that is free from the interference and influence of regional countries such as Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Kenya. The conference should be held inside Somalia’s more stable cities such as Hargeisa and Garowe.

The establishment of a Government of National Unity to prepare the country for free and fair elections.

The establishment of an international tribunal to investigate the atrocities committed by the Ethiopian military, US special forces and the TFG soldiers against Innocent civilians

The ongoing National Reconciliation Conference has been boycotted by the opposition and runs the risk of failing to achieve its purported goal. The conference can be salvaged by moving its venue to a location that is not under the occupation of Ethiopian forces. The perfect venue for the conference, in my humble opinion, is the city of Hargeisa, capital of Northern Somalia. It is not under the direct control of Ethiopia and can be safe for those opposing the TFG. Hargeisa was the first Somali city to raise the blue flag and many of its sons fought and died in the battles of Godey and karamardha in the 1977 war between Somalia and Ethiopia. It can most probably replay its historical role in uniting Somalia again and help its people get rid of the Warlords and their Ethiopian backers.

 

Will the secessionist minded Somaliland politicians rise up to the occasion and safe Somalia like their ancestors did or continue to collaborate with Ethiopia indirectly to divide Somalia and its people?

 

Ali H. Abdulla

aliegeh@gmail.com

 

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