some old predictions i made two years ago

[Paragon]

And not the only one. This forum is littered with others that have come to pass. It feels strange.

 

The other side of the coin, I believe, is unmistakably 'sensibility'. While sentiment is crucial in uniting and emotionally motivating the entire populace to concerted action against injustice, without the guidance of sensibility on the part of leaders, sentiment is prone to short-sightedness, which would certainly lead us into pitfalls. Thus, what is currently needed is a presence of 'vision' in a leadership that sensibly plans for the country's long-term, strategic goals. There is absolutely nothing to be gained from sentimentally, which, although good in its own way, is insufficient in the face of many practical difficulties that hinder or reduce the effectiveness of the war for re-liberation. I believe these practical problems have been evolving for a long time, and not overcoming them means ineffectiveness and failure. What we must consider is that:

 

 

• In historic terms, we currently live in a period of time in which we have been severely weakened by a twenty year old civil, making us the most vulnerable nation of today's world. And Ethiopia, as a state that has always followed and monitored our general social conditions for centuries, waiting for the right opportunity to invade, has used our self-inflicted vulnerability and occupied us. Additionally, our long-standing clan hatred and antagonisms have given Ethiopia the golden opportunity to territorially dismantle our country into fiefdoms. Thus, fighting Ethiopia, while the country is in this dire state, becomes that much more difficult and even the sentiment of 99% of our people now seems to be in vein. And it is for this reason that we must now critically plan for an alternative route to re-liberation.
   
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• The other difficulty that also faces us is in nature global, in that were we to hope that global sentiment would be sympathetic to our cause for we are the wronged party, that doesn't seems to be the case. If anything, global sentiment appears to be working in our disadvantage. Why? Because the United States and Ethiopia have made sure of that.
   
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The third obstacle we must contend with is internal to us as Somalis, in that there already exist many irreparable splits within the movement of the re-liberation front. As brother Thierry has already touched on in one of his posts, there are multiple fronts in the re-liberation movement, some of which (Khalid Bin Walid) coming into existence as recent as three weeks ago. These fronts now total 10, and we are still counting. The older fronts include the different wings of Al-Shabaab (Mogadishu and the Jubbas group), the former UIC (Asmara and Djibouti group), The Jubba Islamic Brotherhood Movement, various Nationalist groupings and so on and so forth. And what is now common knowledge is that these groups or wings follow very different and conflicting approaches in their fight for re-liberation. The main religious wings, such as the UIC and Al-Shabaab, see each other as sworn enemies, let alone their views towards other non-religious and nationalist fronts. These religious wings are increasingly becoming hostile to each other, and further splits or division within them cannot be ruled out. A case in point is the recent creation of Khalid Bin Walid group, whose very aim of formation is said to be a rejection of Al-Shabaab's unilateral closure of Mogadishu Airport. The Khalid Bin Walid group have recently declared that their main objective is to fight, not against Ethiopian occupiers, but to counter Al-Shabaab's monopoly on command and, possibly, violence. So, if that is all it takes another group or front to form, then I must ask you, isn't the situation becoming so chaotic as to expect more catastrophic wars all over again? I hope not.

 

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Another equally serious problem is related to the above point (3), and concerns the future consequences of ever increasing fronts making impossible the joint agreement to table alternative rule of law in post-occupation Somalia. If Ethiopia is successfully defeated and driven out of the country, then the question is, what awaits Somalia that will find itself under multiple factional controls within compartmentalized territories? Another bout of twenty or fourty year old ideological civil way? Such a future is what worries me most, even more than the current TFG and Ethiopian occupiers. Now, at the present time, what we must start planning for is the sort of structural frameworks for stability and governance will be in place in post-occupation Somalia. I strong hold the view that it was our failure to plan ahead is what has led us into civil war, before even Siad Bare was ousted from power. And surely, that mistake has precipitated current Ethiopian occupation. Do we wish to repeat the same mistake? I hope not. As someone who has put a great deal of thought and effort into gaining some insight into our current condition, and the prospects of the future that awaits our nation, my advice is this: be visionary, think beyond today in order to catch a glimpse of the bigger picture while still paying attention to history.

 

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Another dangerous precedent that flows from our previous failures or mistakes of thinking ahead, concerns what I would call the 'lost generation of the war'. this means, the thousands of youths that were born in Somalia during the years of 1991 to the present, who, their short lifetimes, have not known only war and its strife. This generation, which has no tangible social knowledge or social school and semblance of governance structures, have previously fallen prey to warlords and we used to fan the flame of clan-based war. The fact that this generation was a major factor in the continuation of the civil war is not their fault; the fault lies elsewhere I believe. However, during the rise of the UIC and, subsequently, the Al-Shabaab, the radical indoctrination of these youths has dramatically increased, taking a different religious orientation. Thus, this marks the advent of mass radicalization in the fight ( previously) against the warlords, (and now) the TFG and Ethiopian occupiers. Personally, I don't see such radicalization as a problem, if these youths will at later times be institutionalized and absorbed into a future post-occupation state apparatus. But such an institutionalization can not altogether be guaranteed, as there exist future strategic plans to do so. Thus, if such plans are not quickly put in place, then in post-occupation Somalia, we will certainly be in for the continuation of civil. What makes that likely is that it is presently observable that some religiously radicalized youths, and their minders, seem apprehensive toward comprise in reconciling with their fellow freedom fighters, even when peace may solely depend on reconciliation. So, what if these youths and their minders insist that, having sacrificed life and limp in liberating Somalia, they will not share the victory with the rest of the re-liberation movements? Should we then expect another face-off between what before use to be 'freedom fighters' at the expense of an already weary nation?

 

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Last but not least, granted that we overcome all the difficulties I touched on in the above five points, will there a future post-occupation Somalia that is able to survive, for long, the overtures of and interventions of neighbouring countries, and the international community (especially the US)? I hope that we survive and prosper into strong and promising Somalia, amen. But then again, what if it doesn't? Will it not be wise to complete ways to make sure Somalia outlives all its enemies? Think about it. Certainly this is why I and brother Thierry are proposing the acceptance of the Djibouti Reconciliations.

source here

Just a reminder.

[Paragon]

Here's another made in 2003

 

Secondly, this war, in essence, is much older than us or even our fathers, its echoes are symbolised by the Ethiopian emperor, Menelik II's plea to his Euro-Christian brothers in 1891, utterring "Ethiopia has been for fourteen centuries a Christian island in a sea of pagans". Funily, by then he didn't categorize Somalis into clans and regions, but for him all Somalis were "Pagans". However, the same emperor's descendants are the ones whom we look upto and hope mercy from, what a pity. Let me not drag you into that area right now but the fact is once a snake always a snake, and the ethios haven't forgotten about old enmities and grudges, they dwell on the hatred they hold against us.

 

Ethiopia had pursued her on goals inside Somalia and will continue to finish what emperor Haile Sallase described as "The Unfinished Business" that still continues to dominate Ethiopia's strategies, just as it use to be in the days of "Scramble for Africa". Interestingly, when the Europeans scrambled for the rest of Africa, Ethiopia in turn had scrambled for Somalia and her dream to enlarge Abbyssinian empire become true with the help of her christian brothers.

 

What a shame to this day we fail to see this union between Ethios and Europeans, while calling europeans to mediate between us. Either way, what we've read from history books or heard from our parents will be nothing compared to what Ethiopia intends for Somalia. Below is alittle touch of reality and possibilities...

 

Ethiopia's geo-political strategy - Elimi-Nation of Somalis and Somalia from history

 

There is a surety, and all of you have noticed that Somalia has now been divided into fiefdoms, and all these divisions are DIRECTLY or INDIRECTLY supported by the Ethiopian regime. Their strategy is to help Somalis seek autonomy from Somalia and form small, militarily ineffective regional governments that adhere to Ethiopian political and cultural ideology, whilst at the same time infiltrating our traditional values with an imposition of Ethiopian models of livelihood. This way the substance of the culture would be undermind by the strong ethio-influences, germinating from several places such as media and presence of a state that is client to Ethiopia. The outcome is deadly, or may i say THE END OF SOMALINESS. When a war of this level is waged against an entire de-centralised society, the result is erosion of basic principles that enforce law and order.

 

The foundation is already being set for this kind of war. Statistically, many households in the provinces that neighbour Ethiopia, there is an employment of many ETHIOPIAN housemaids, who are likely to influence the mental growth of our offsprings; making them familiar with ethiopian values. So far, this is the most worrying factor, it is a war for the hearts and minds of the local Somalis. And as globalization spreads, ethiopia is likey to be successful in spreading her war in ways we wont be able to notice. It is not a wonderment to see a decline of patrioticism within Somalis because we're being systematically targetted by not only Ethiopia but by also the christian world. Insofar, it hasn't been dificult to figure out why so many Somalis are being shipped out of refugee camps in kenya and other neibouring countries.

 

The reasons of shipments of such a large number of Somalis only constitute what some call "a historical ideological war", which as a result would make more Somalis become adaptive to western values, and it is more likely that we would see many Somalis relating to western (christian)values, which creates a possible increase of ethio-sympathetics in Somalia. By the time many of us go back to Somalia, there surely would be a clash of ideology. What threats Ethiopia poses cannot be comprehended by one or two writtings, but hopefully I wish you see things from my my angle once.

source here

[NASSIR]

Great Prediction, but you are wasting the very gifted side of yours to an ungrateful, ignorant society. Better channel that energy into at home where charity is said to originate and sanctioned. Then and there, Somalia shall emerge from its self-inflicted wounds.

[Meiji]

Originally posted by NASSIR:

Great Prediction, but you are wasting the very gifted side of yours to an ungrateful, ignorant society. Better channel that energy into at home where charity is said to originate and sanctioned. Then and there, Somalia shall emerge from its self-inflicted wounds.

And that ungrateful and ignorant society is?

[xiinfaniin]

^^Aduu kuu jeedaa, Mejiyow, ee ninka threadka kale u furo oo iga garbax dheh