THE ROADMAP TO A LASTING NATIONAL SOLUTION

[Sophist]

THE ROADMAP TO A LASTING NATIONAL SOLUTION

 

MAHAMED ABDULLAHI

3 DECEMBER 2004

Nairobi, Kenya

 

I. INTRODUCTION

 

Somali nation is at a critical historical juncture. The former proud nation has dawn the new millennium in despair and as an embodiment of failed state. The country has been ravaged by anarchy for over a decade, which is mainly a self-inflicted tragedy with the ever-present foreign hands larking on the background. Somali people have suffered so much for so long from continuing senseless violence and turmoil. We are facing as a nation a colossal national catastrophe endangering our future existence as an independent nation united under one flag with one people and one cultural heritage.

 

If we do not act and act now, no one shall act on our behalf. For all of these years, the solution to this tragedy has been searched in foreign capitals where fruitless thirteen (13) national reconciliation conferences were convened to no avail. At present, a 14th national reconciliation conference was concluded after two years of negotiations in the neighboring Kenya. Like its countless predecessors, the latest peace conference and its new political dispensation would again fail the hope of Somali people for a lasting peace, unity and development. Somali people should look the solution to this national catastrophe within themselves for only a Somali owned and driven solution can lead to a lasting national solution. It is not in the interest of the nation to continue holding peace conferences in foreign lands on the basis of clan system to reconcile irreconcilable murderous warlords who have no at heart the people’s interest. How long is it morally and practically justifiable to continue with this failed path to peace? More damning is to await solution from foreign nations who have conflicting vital strategic interests in Somalia.

 

It is high time that patriotic Somalis respond to this national catastrophe with new purpose and direction. Patriotic national forces must cease lamenting about our sad state of affairs on the sidelines and respond by directly entering the national political scene equipped with a bold alternative roadmap. The new approach must work for revolutionary change, action-oriented long-term objectives and be based on nationalistic and people centered principles.

 

To this end, I put forward in this paper the struggle of national salvation and revival as the roadmap to a lasting national solution. The struggle is a national, politico-military and people based protracted struggle of national salvation and revival. The paper covers four correlated themes. First, it outlines the state of the nation and extent of the Somali problem. Second, it gives lengthy account and analysis of the treacherous 14th national reconciliation conference or Mbagathi process that has just concluded in the neighboring Kenya. Third, it discusses in detail the struggle of national salvation and revival as the only remaining viable option to bring realistic end to the irrational anarchy, thwart dangers facing the nation and as well establish a New Somalia. Finally, it identifies the fundamental principles of the revolutionary struggle of national salvation and revival.

II. THE STATE OF THE NATION

 

The state of the nation is grim and at a historical crossroad. Nature of Somali conflict has underwent huge transformation from the beginning of the total clan warfare in 1991. It went from one of clearly defined belligerents of opposition forces of whatever nature against the military government of the day to a multi-array of chauvinistic clan based forces biding each other for total annihilation. Over the years, these forces due to their initial clan character rather than national led the people to total destruction and divided the country into clan fiefdoms. One such fiefdom in the Northwest openly declared secession from the republic mainly citing colonial arguments and abuses of the former military regime. Northwestern and Northeastern regions of the country have escaped brunt of the anarchy and maintained commendable local stability and nominal governance. For more than a decade, there has been no effective and widely recognized national government forcing Somalia to be absent from international arena. This has opened the door for both direct political and military interventions from other countries especially those of the region chief among them the archrival Ethiopia.

 

Somalia is in essence a failed state. The civil war and the daily political disintegration of the existing armed and political groups are spreading uncontrollably proving so far the Somali conflict to be one of the world’s forgotten and endless quagmires. For survival, the bankrupt political establishment constantly fuels the division of the people and sows mistruth between them. No single Somali group stands for a national goal. The warlords’ irreconcilable clan or interest based agendas and direct foreign interference makes it impossible for them to form any sort of a united position towards national issues. The warlords couldn’t agree on a national solution in the past thirteen (13) peace conferences.

 

The just ended national reconciliation conference, the 14th foreign held, has diminished the remaining hope of a lasting national solution for the Somali conflict. The latest attempt at peace was launched on 15 October 2002 under the auspices of Horn of Africa regional organization, the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which Somalia is a founding member. IGAD Partners Forum (IPF) plays the role of international observer and is the main financial backer of the talks. This conference has only succeeded at trampling over the national unity, political independence, cultural identity and dignity of the Somali nation. In this political state, a permanent vacuum is established. The hope for a lasting peaceful national settlement has diminished and legitimization of permanent division of the country into clan-based fiefdoms rises with time engineered by both internal and external forces. In other words, current Somali political establishment is morally and politically bankrupt to deliver the nation from this national catastrophe.

 

No reconciliation conference of national level was ever held within the Somali territory. For the foreseeable future this would not be possible since no single group is in position politically, financially and security-wise to host such kind of conference. The few reconciliation conferences held within the country were only limited to regional or clan level. Domestic peace processes have better chance of success more particularly in the Somali case for it limits foreign interference and the reconciliation process could be conducted on national terms and cultural realities.

 

It can be said, the one and only road to internally held national reconciliation is through Hargeisa. The stable Northwestern regions of the self-declared “Republic of Somaliland†would be in best position to hold national reconciliation conference. It would be possible if it totally renounces its secessionist policy and seizes this historic leadership in reconstituting the Somali State. Incentive for them to accept this different direction could be the post of President of the new government is reserved for Northerners and Hargeisa to act as the temporary capital city until Mogadishu is completely pacified. The Southern political establishment and civil groups are required to collectively urge Northerners to take this new direction. It needs the international community especially the United Nations and African Union to clearly spell out for the leaders of the secessionists that their aim is futile and their interest rests with a New Somalia. The secessionists would have an ample opportunity to take part in the institution of a New Somalia that represents the interests of all Somalis through this new direction.

 

Unlike previous conferences, this domestic process should first address core issues of the Somali conflict like root causes of the civil war, the gross injustices and war crimes and achieve a genuine reconciliation before it moves to the final stage of power-sharing. In other words, it should be a classic reconciliation process and as well utilize the renowned Somali peacemaking traditions. With this, the only road to national peaceful resolution of the Somali civil war could develop into reality. The role of foreigners should be strictly limited to observer status and if the need arises help with funds. This new direction is in the interest of the whole Somali nation from Zeila to Ras Kiamboni. The hope for this becoming reality is very slim. The destructive secessionist leaders and Southern warlords are not in a position to recognize such a historic judgment, which is in the interest of our long-suffering people and country.

 

On top of this sorry political state of affairs, the country is in shambles in very conceivable manner from the economic to the socio-cultural sphere. Vital economic activities have collapsed whereas the public and private properties were widely looted placing the country out of the world’s economic map. The little economic activity that is functioning revolves around the shadowy trade with far-flung areas as the Far East countries. Armed factions and criminal business groups are engaged in illegal activities for example licensing foreign pirates to illegally fish on Somali waters with harmful effects and misappropriation of public properties like ports and airports. Many other illicit trades are carried out in the country such as drug trade. This constitutes as a war economy and it is major factor fueling the civil war for this long.

 

Our human resource, our people, is at total waste. Since the start of the bloodshed it is estimated over half a million Somalis have died. The life of a Somali has become worthless where scores die daily from hunger, easily curable diseases or pointless killings. Millions of Somalis have scattered to all corners of the world or are internally displaced leaving in precarious life and indignity. Somali has become a byword for anarchy, destruction and failed state. Majority of the people rely for their daily survival on handouts from aid organizations and the support from relatives in the Diaspora. A whole generation has grown up in darkness without knowing national authority, law and order, education and health services in place. Those in the Diaspora are growing under alien cultural heritage endangering their identity. Socially, the morals and the fabric of the society have weakened after enduring such a lengthy period of state of anarchy.

 

Worst of it, this unsheltered environment has made possible many sorts of threats to infiltrate into the country. Alien faiths and cultures in many disguises have been proliferated into our homogenous nation united by a single faith, culture, language and way of life. It is well known that some international aid agencies in the country are propagating Christianity through the humanitarian services they offer. The Somali cultural heritage and language is facing huge pressures from these onslaughts endangering its future integrity. Also, with internal and external accomplices, we have become dumping ground for many sorts of hazardous materials including nuclear wastes. Our natural resources have been stripped bare without regard from activities like extensive charcoal burning for export to the Gulf region and over fishing by large foreign pirate ships on our coast. This would mean for the country long-term environmental damage, depletion of resources and health risks. Overall, the state of the nation’s outlook is very gloomy in every aspect and every day the conflict is becoming more senseless putting into question the future integrity, functioning and development of our society.

 

III. PAST NATIONAL RECONCILIATION PROCESSES

 

Since 1991, fourteen (14) national reconciliation conferences were held for Somalia under the auspices of different African and Arab countries in order to bring back normalcy and governance to this failed state of ours. None has to date propelled Somalia to an era of peace and effective governance. This section analyzes the manner in which these talks were conducted which would shade light into the obstacles to peace discussed in the subsequent section. We can identify three different methods that were utilized in these attempts to restore peace and reconstitute the Somali State.

 

A. Warlord centered approach

 

The first method was warlord centered approach and was used in the national reconciliation conferences held from 1991 to 1997. Within this period, twelve (12) national peace conferences were convened. Most notable of them were held in Djibouti (1991), Ethiopia (1993, 1994, 1996) and in Egypt (1997). This approach focuses on rebuilding Somalia from top-down thus instituting a strong central government. Top-down method of rebuilding Somali governance structures is strongly supported by the Arab League foremost of them Djibouti, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Political and civil associations were not acknowledged in these processes. Armed groups led by the warlords were assumed are the key political and military actors on the ground. The clans lined up behind the warlords, the central actors of this approach. When it came to power sharing certainly the clan equation was considered. The number of warlords participating in each subsequent conference multiplied in which twenty-eight (28) warlords and their minions attended the last conference of this kind in Cairo, Egypt. The goal was to reconcile the warlords and after that reconciliation they were to form National Transitional Government among themselves.

 

In all this attempts, the warlords failed to produce the necessary consensus. The warlords proved incapable on personal and political levels to lead their people out of misery and as well had no incentive for peace as agents of destruction benefiting directly from the chaos. They were all aware that they couldn’t survive in an environment of peace, laws and democratic governance. Each warlord was adamant to hold on to his fiefdom or gain the top seat, the Presidency, in order to legitimize his clannish and predatory politics. For years, the fate of millions of people rested on a zero-sum game played by the warlords. To date, they still continue to demonstrate this lack of vision and political will to genuinely end the long running civil war for the sake of their destroyed nation.

 

B. “Building blocks†approach

 

The second method employed in national reconstitution from 1998 was the bottom-up approach and better known as the “building blocks†approach. It entertains the notion that clan rivalry is the core of the Somali problem and the only means to resuscitate Somalia is to take into account this clan phenomenon. The de facto clan fiefdoms established during the civil war would be encouraged to develop local administrations thus becoming the federal basis for national reconstitution. It is a concept strongly supported by the warlords, Ethiopia and international aid agencies. Ethiopia, the principal advocate of this concept succeeded to persuade some of the international community particularly African Union and IGAD to adopt this approach. As a result, Ethiopia was given the sole mandate to spearhead the Somali peace process along this concept. Ethiopia advocates this approach for short time security necessity to achieve some sort of stability on its borders and for reasons of long-term strategic interests aimed at Somalia’s political dissolution via clan balkanization.

 

In this process “Puntland State of Somalia†was established at Garowe Conference of 1998 where the four related sub-clans of this Northeastern region came together. The only earlier examples of this kind of localized grassroots peace processes in the country were Burco and Boramo conferences of Northwestern regions in 1991 and 1993 respectively. Even though these two conferences led to the secession of the Northwestern regions (“Somalilandâ€) but they succeeded in bringing some sort of stability and local governance to these areas. The idea was for the United Nations development agencies, donor countries and international aid agencies to entice with peace dividend the chaotic Southern regions in developing “Puntland†style governance. All this would be done at clan level and the emerging States would be based on related sub-clans. Then the new States across the country are to be reconciled to form National Federal Government. Banadir State, Hiiraan State, Southwest State and Jubbaland State etc were attempted on different levels but nothing came of them thus proving “building blocks†approach is not applicable nationally. Southern regions are different politically, diverse clan-wise, many warlords/militias exist and are bitterly contested for economic gains unlike the Northwestern and Northeastern regions of Somalia.

 

“Building blocks†approach embraces minimalist view discounting the political, economical and external dimensions of the Somali conflict. Its advocates still preach its worthiness for rebuilding the Somali State but the facts on the ground show a dismal failure. The “Somaliland†and “Puntland†experiment only yielded a resemblance of public administration and relative peace. High degree of clan consciousness and institutionalization of the clan, large and inefficient government structures, corruption, unaccountability and personalization of public power by the “Presidents†characterize these renegade administrations. This is hardly the right way to restore national unity and consciousness, the rule of law and foster viable democratic governance. As clearly put by Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar of the University of Minnesota, “in essence this clan-based system has produced a poor Somali version of the infamous South African “Bantustansâ€.†Further, the much-hailed prototype of this process in the South, “Puntlandâ€, was in turmoil since 2001. Its leader Colonel Abdullahi Yussuf Ahmed at the official end of his three-year term in July 2001 refused to relinquish power leading to major armed confrontations with the newly elected “President†Jama Ali Jama. He continued to rule “Puntland†by the barrel of the gun until his election as the Somali president at Mbagathi conference in October 2004. This proves again, the warlords, cannot be tamed into leaders who are willing to abide the law, work for peace, accept democratic governance and put the interests of the people before their wicked ambitions.

 

C. Clan centered approach

 

The third method attempted was clan-centered approach epitomized in the 4.5 clan formula. It was first adopted at the national reconciliation conference held in Arta, Djibouti from May to August 2000. The conference was a timely gift from the president, government and people of Djibouti in a period Somalia was forgotten by the world to repay for the support tendered by the Somali Republic during Djibouti’s independence struggle. The 4.5 clan formula breaks down the Somali nation into four major clans and the so-called fifth or “others†clan, a cordial alliance of minority clans. This process centered on a top-down method to rebuild Somalia’s national institutions. There was no room for armed groups in this grassroots process of clans, civil society and Diaspora where over three thousand (3000) delegates .......

[NASSIR]

Our human resource, our people, is at total waste. Since the start of the bloodshed it is estimated over half a million Somalis have died. The life of a Somali has become worthless where scores die daily from hunger, easily curable diseases or pointless killings. Millions of Somalis have scattered to all corners of the world or are internally displaced leaving in precarious life and indignity. Somali has become a byword for anarchy, destruction and failed state. Majority of the people rely for their daily survival on handouts from aid organizations and the support from relatives in the Diaspora. A whole generation has grown up in darkness without knowing national authority, law and order, education and health services in place. Those in the Diaspora are growing under alien cultural heritage endangering their identity. Socially, the morals and the fabric of the society have weakened after enduring such a lengthy period of state of anarchy.

 

 

Excellent point. I liked this paragraph.