Thoughts on Somalia!.

[xiinfaniin]

These are nothing but my own raw thoughts on the present state of our beloved country, and the prospect of war.

 

As you are well aware of the Somali conflict seems to have entered into a new phase. Arms, it sadly now seems, will decide the contest. What is at stake is not only the future of Somali people in the south but also the affairs of all Somali people in the republic are to be decided. Peaceful regions like Somaliland and Puntland who prospered and lived on the peripheries of Somali civil war are now about to be swallowed by this new conflict. All indications are that Arabs have found new methods to influence the goings in Somalia to tip the matters to their liking. Initially, America assured them (it was assumed) that their interest in the region will be preserved and Ethiopia is just a convenient tool to settle matters and create a favorable environment for the tfg. As the world has seen last week, Mogadishu has erupted with anger and that, as sad an event as it was, marked the seedtime for all the parties concerned.Here are the glaring facts that stared at the world in the face: Mogadishu is far from being pacified; Ethiopia is in a political/military limbo; America has run out of ideas; and sadly Somalia is plunging deep into the civil war. But this time the Somali civil war will have a far reaching consequences for both the Somali people and for the region as a whole.

 

The multiplicity of our political variables is noted. Although all danced for the same tune during the so-called Somali Contact Group meeting at Cairo, the differences between the participants about the most fundamental questions of Somali conflict were hard to ignore. While America insisted that tfg must be supported and Ethiopian must be commanded for its effort to just do that, others ranted and expressed their deeply held mistrust about Ethiopia’s role in Somalia. So by and large, and despite what the meeting’s final communiqué said, the lyrics were much better as it were than the music. Arabs, it seems, have now understood the Somali game. America will be put in very hard place, as it does not want to anger its friends on an issue as insignificant to them as Somali matter definitely is. All eyes are on the postponed reconciliation conference. Who is going to attend it and under what protection, what issues are open for discussion and what’s off the table, and other hot items are being ironed out and are not going to be left for tfg to decide as the initial impressions gave.

 

Even with that shoot of hope, it’s still very difficult to avoid war, as it requires wise leadership from both sides of the conflict, which it current lacks. Further more, those who are external to our conflict seem to have dominated us and want to decide our destiny. Ethiopia’s intervention into our internal affairs, and that of America as well, are solely from their own interest and not out of especial attachment to us. The enemies they want to fight are our kin, and they fight on their account, and not on ours. Those who ally themselves with them can’t stop them hence they participate in a fight, which they know will ultimately fail us all and destroy the nation they claim that they want to rebuild. So that reduces them to a mere tools utilized in achieving goals that would allegedly benefit other nation’s security and stability, not them or their country. They need to be confronted and stopped. For if they succeed with such a plan (the one they have articulated so far) it will make Somalia worse, and not better. Foreign armies who have their own agenda, an agenda that’s contrary to ours, are using them.

 

 

The war would be a welcome change (relatively speaking, of course!) if it takes an ideological form, and not a tribal one. It would be most effective if it’s sponsored and financed by states, and not fought under the guidance of clan leaders and run by the mere finances of deep-pocketed individuals with narrow agendas. It would be of a greater worth if it aims, as an objective, to unite Somalis and rebel Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. It would be forever engraved in our history books if it succeeds to demolish our tribal boundaries, and, with it, destroys, or reforms, the political divide that’s breathed by useless entities that are supported by our regional foe for its own interests.

 

^^That's just a wish! Of course there's a more realistic wish, peace. Peace will always remain a cherished commodity for us, and it’s my deepest wish that Somalis will someday attain it with Allah’s help!

[AYOUB]

Would it make the Ethios rethink if certain targets inside Ethiopia were hit? Just a thought.

[bambo]

Xiinfan

 

very good point indeed ,

 

when /how / where will somalis find a group/party /faction that have same common ideological , goals , plan , vision to liberat somalia from turmoil that we are in today , without being labeld as qabil motive .

 

 

removing the Ethopian troops will be easy if first somali people unite and establish administration.

 

somalis are holding themself hostage for the purpose of greed and pride .

[me]

Originally posted by AYOUB:

Would it make the Ethios rethink if certain targets inside Ethiopia were hit? Just a thought.

No u ***** it would make things worse, it would give the Ethios an excuse and it would rally its people behind their dictator, its better to think of ways of dividing them. Go back to the drawing board.

 

If any targets should be hit it should be military targets.

[Khalaf]

Questions:

 

Scenario 1: If the Ethiopian backed TFG succeeds? (TFG supporters?)

 

1. What does Somalia look like, what does the future hold for Somalia as a whole? What will be the place/role of Ethiopia inside somalia, since it paid dearly for this conflict?

 

2. What about any somali army?

 

3. Will the Ethiopian soldiers (how many are there now?), withdraw? What about peacekeepers? Will Somalia be like a Kosovo?

 

4.Either way in this scenario, wouldn’t Somalia as a nation be weak and at the mercy of Ethiopia and outsiders?

 

 

Scenario 2:

1. Who exactly makes up this opposition at this moment in time? Why does it look, talk, smell like qabil thing? How large are they? Where are the shababs? What are their weapons, connections, strategy, their ultimate objective? Is it to kick the ethios (which means end of TFG) out of Mogadishu or all of Somalia? If they were to succeed what would be the likely relationship between somali regions?

 

 

The way it looks if this conflict takes a more serious turn (stronger Ethiopian offensive) is that Somalia has 3 choices:

 

1.Let the Ethiopian offensive succeed, and that means Somalia may have peace and stablity laakin will be at the mercy of Ethiopia for long time to come, politically, economically, and most important militarily.

 

2.Have guerilla war mainly in xamar and surrounding areas against the Ethiopians. You can’t kick out the Ethiopians this way....can hurt them, and they will hurt u worse and destroy the country, but will not defeat them because u have no unity in Somalia.

 

3.The current opposition against the Ethiopians: changes strategy. Seeks unity, calls to unity, recruits public *religious** figures in particular from PL/SL, ulma to speak out, do propaganda tactics across clans, and educate the masses about what will happen if Ethiopian offensive shall succeed. Change this terrible current strategy that looks qablish! Use the media wisely!

 

4.If that fails-most likely it will, and no unity is achieved inside Somalia. There is no way u can hurt the Ethiopians inside Somalia w/out unity (still dont know seriousness of ethiopians and how large they are)....the opposition (if they are serious about defeating Ethiopia) needs to change strategy: take a look at this map, ie Number 8/9 ...........take the fight to them. To do this u need an ally, supplies, network ect how/who? I don’t know but for Ethiopia more prolong war=more US dollars.

 

 

Either way, Somalia will be screwed regardless of the outcome of the conflict....unless they unite as Bambo said, or at least a talk between this TFG and this opposition and reach an argemeent between somalis which is highly unlikely........

[Captain Xalane]

Originally posted by Khalaf:

Questions:

 

 

1. What does Somalia look like, what does the future hold for Somalia as a whole? What will be the place/role of Ethiopia inside somalia, since it paid dearly for this conflict?

Ethiopia will and must go back to its borders and so are the peace keeping troops in general after their work is done.The somalian army aided by the police will take over the security measures

 

2. What about any somali army?

We will have our own somalian national troops.However,their size might not be more than 3 or 4 divisions.It means the army will be weak and will develop with time.

 

3. Will the Ethiopian soldiers (how many are there now?), withdraw? What about peacekeepers? Will Somalia be like a Kosovo?

The Ethiopians in somalia are said to be around 25,000 troops and among them are;

One battalion armed with Artillery types;

Howitzer D-30,heavy mortars such as 82mm and 120mm mortars,Towed M-198 and 122 artillery,BM 21 and BM 11.Another tank and armored battalion armed with tanks and BTR,BRDM personnel carriers.Its a whole Brigade aided by at least two or one dispatched unit.

 

Either way in this scenario, wouldn’t Somalia as a nation be weak and at the mercy of Ethiopia and outsiders?

We will be weak.

 

What are their weapons, connections, strategy, their ultimate objective?

Mainly Assault AKM's klashnikov and M16's,others include general purpose machines guns such as the PK and PKM.They also have 50mm mounted on vehicles aka technicals.They also have some heavy machine guns such as the DSHK 12.77 mm and is Russian made.

 

Their strategy;

 

1.Fight in over populated areas.(use the populace as human shields)-

 

2.Adopt insurgency like techniques.

 

3.Use the death of the civilians to pressure the government.

 

4.Adopt Qabiil based claims.

 

5.Ultimate objective is to refuse or reject any Government at all costs no matter what.

 

Conclusion;

 

Ethiopia is poor and has its own military challenges in its own homeland.This operation was not a long term campaign at its onset and thus the mere moment the involved militias are disarmed they should go back to their country.Secondly,this Government will function if force is used and thirdly no sort of negotiations will ever work in somalia,Diplomacy had 16 years and it failed and thus lets give the military solution a chance.

[ansaar17]

To believe that the Ethiopians will risk their lives and money to help this TFG and get nothing in return is hallucanation.

 

You are using the same arguments reer amerika uses saying they only invaded iraq to bring "peace&freedom."

 

as they say "its too good to be true."

[Paragon]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us, Xiin. The Somali nation and the tfg is hostage to Ethiopia and American dollars. The sooner the tfg crew recognise that they're to Ethiopia and America a means to an end, the better -for them. For the rest of us Somalis, however, we know our enemies. The tfg supporters aren't really our enemies but the accomplice of the vampire we are trying to get rid of.

[JJ_MAHAD]

TFG will hang on to power in the comming two years, thanks to:

 

1. Resistant that sends confused messages combined with lack of clear objectives and political leadership.

 

2. A ruthless Ethiopian army that will not hesitate to burn the whole city.

 

3. AU forces (currently buying sometime) with a mission to help tfg govern the already pacified

(burnt down) ereas by Ethios.

 

4.And most importantly American Dollars & Diplomatic cover.

 

The situation is much different than the last 16 years. Desperate situations needs desperate methods.

[JJ_MAHAD]

Xiin,

dont put any high hopes on the Arabs, they are part of the American plan. Amar Muse's last statement says it all.