Blame this on UIC

[Gabbal]

The notion that everything hinges on the ICU sitting down with the TFG strikes me as naive. Hasn't the ICU sat down with the TFG before? What came as a result? Better yet, has it relevence? Ragow wax badan soo tuura, waad is indha-tiraysaane!

 

There are extreme differences between the ICU and the TFG that will not be bridged anytime soon particularly that those have been stipulated by their respective supporters (highlighted of course by our esteemed and quite blunt Hassan Turki), but unlike the majority of you, I believe an agreement on those differences has no relevence!

 

I do agree with Baashi that Ethiopia has surely gotten the upper hand in the current power-struggle. So much that Ethiopia has virtually discarded with the TFG and called the fight out for what it is; its own. Today I read an interesting press release by one Abdirahman Diinaari, the personal spokesman of the president. According to Diinaari, Ethiopia has a right to defend itself and "they", persumably the TFG, support the decision by the Ethiopian parliament to support its Prime Minister.

 

Intelligent men do not need any more information on deciding whether anything, rather then everything, rests on the TFG and ICU sitting down face to face!

[General Duke]

I fully agree with Baashe there and believe that the Courts’ only way to victory is to sit down with the TFG and make temporary concessions. Because looking at it from all angles and considering all possible outcomes of the political manoeuvrings so far I really can’t see any way out for the Courts. They’ve well and truly walked into this trap (a trap of their own making).

I agree with this last point here. The lifting of the arms embargo presents many political problems. This resoloution also support the TFG, giving it certain garauntees, against any attempt to over throw it by any group. This is what the Courts were hoping to do, to replace the government whole sale by force.

 

The Clan Courts have given the TFG what it never had, international support.

[QabiilDiid]

I totally disagree with Baashe. UIC has done and is doing the right thing. With their limited resources be it professionals that can handle day to day government operations or material wealth, I believe that they have made decisions in the interest of the Somalia and her people.

 

Unless the puppet government comes to Mogadisho after it cleanses and purifies herself from Tgrean dirty and I do not see how they can do it (how an unarmed can get rid of his gangster bodyguard, oo maro ku dhag buu kugu noqonayaa eh), the UIC and the Somali people has no other option but to defend their country, religion and people. The Somalis can not avoid putting their political destiny in the hands of Mr. Mele Zenawi unless they are willing to be second citizens in their own country. Negotiating with TFG is accepting the condition set by Addis regime. The only thing that can disprove my statements is if the Tigrean militia withdraws from the Somali soil and A/Y and company come to Mogadishu in good faith and with no pre-conditions.

 

I think the Somali people are not given any other option but to fight. Waxa aan u malaynayaa in daagaalka khayr ku jiro. No more Kharduum.

[Somali_Friend]

Originally posted by HornAfrique:

(highlighted of course by our esteemed and quite blunt Hassan Turki), but unlike the majority of you, I believe an agreement on those differences has no relevence!

Horn,

But sometimes even Shiek Hassan Tahir seemed to contradict Hassan Turki. The one problem for them is they do not seem to define who they are, except Hassan Turki, no body has spoken that they are the government for Somalia or they want to be one.

 

They really have fallen into a trap. In the beginning they were afraid of other states, so they recognized the federal government. Once they did that its all finished, that means they are government of a region, state or province. Thats all.

 

In regards to Ethiopia and the resolution. about 7 political parties have consulted religious authorities and Immams including from other countries if there is anything the government of ethiopia has done that can be considered remotely against Islam. The answer was a resounding NO. Thus the Jihad from SICU becomes illegal, illegitimate and unislamic. Actually one of the Shieks called it Blasphemous and the SICU (shiek hassan tahir) an imposter.

[Gabbal]

Somali-Friend-

 

Sheikh Dahir Aweys could have contradicted Sheikh Hassan Turki on his asserting that they planned to militarily take both Somaliland and Puntland but not on highlighting the fundamental differences between the TFG and the ICU. In fact, what Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys did was to contradict Turki on the earlier while never even bringing up the latter.

 

What are two of the main fundamental differences that stops any decision from being reached (other then the TFG do the compromising and accepting the ICU demands)?

 

1. There is no such thing as a constitution except the Holy Qur'an.

 

2. The law of the land shall be based on Sharia (and infact this has always followed "we are inviting the president to Mogadishu" by adding "provided he will rule by Sharia Law").

 

As you can see, the problem does not disappear when and if the TFG and the ICU sit face to face again, as some have already led themselves to believe. It is the TFG that will do any major comprising and I do not see how that is particularly possible with the number and weight of foreign hands in the mix.

[Somali_Friend]

Originally posted by HornAfrique:

It is the TFG that will do any major comprising and I do not see how that is particularly possible with the number and weight of foreign hands in the mix.

Before you go to foreign hands, do you think the majority of somalia is ready to throw away the federal arrangement and accept ICU as the supreme ruler and have government as the supreme leader who is now shiek hassan tahir wants it and allows it?

 

To my knowledge foreigners in any country have never invented something that is not already there. Ethiopia is a poor third world country to create something in Somalia out of thin air. On the contrary Somalia has a lot of levers on Ethiopia.

If Somalia wants ports are the best lever

If Somalia wants peace is the best lever

 

The arrangement and recognition by both somalia and ethiopia that they both live in glass houses and both should take care of the glass walls is best arrangement some seems to have worked with Sudan for 10 years now and going strong.

Both Sudan and Ethiopia share people, water, border, religion, cultures..etc. It can be used for steering trouble or for peace and friendship. They both used it in the past to create trouble on each other, and now they are using it to establish good neighborly relations, friendship and trade.

 

My point is that, its better to look in Somalia first and then look what the foreigners will or are doing with somalia. Otherwise it will be one sided and never get a solution.

 

For example:

Eritreans are 500 meters away from Ethiopians in the North with both Afar and Tigray states that the Eritreans seem to hate the most. Why would they come all the way to Mugadishu? And if Mugadishu allows its house to be used for hosting terrorists against ethiopia or its dignitaries (attempted assasination of Hosni Mubarek in Addis Ababa) then it should not complain with the response in kind. Its simple. One will be treated the way he/she treats others.

 

Only Somalis can determine and choose how others treat Somalia, but if they say Arabs are welcome to destroy ethiopia, well then ethiopians will also say somebody is welcome to at least prevent this.

[xiinfaniin]

I hear you loud and clear yaa Baashi! Laakiin weli far baa ii taagan awoowe! Before I get in to this let me announce my ignorance about Egypt’s reported disappointment in Courts politicking! That I simply don’t know.

 

First lets revisit how it all started: Qanyare and co declared a war on all Islamists and formed a terror fighting (with America’s finance) coalition. Sahwa leaders like Aweys and Turkey secretly appealed their brothers around the country (and abroad) to help them fight this war. In a few weeks time, excited shabaabs from almost every region and clan flocked to Mogadishu and undertook one of the most interesting military operations in Somalia’s recent history. Mogadishu warlords, unorganized and unaware of this newly mechanized army of shabaabs, were handily defeated and driven out of the city. The masses, impressed by these shabaabs’s superb fighting ability and attracted by the appeal of the religious slogans employed by Mogadishu’s preachers, totally embraced and welcomed the winners. Aweys and co accepted, I dare say enjoyed, this newly found power and made policy pronouncements—you can’t really blame them, or can you? Who wouldn’t like the power authority brings? Needlessly to say it was easy to see Allah’s hand in all of this as yesterday’s hunted became victorious in a matter of weeks! At times faithful's share of emotional eruptions is more difficult to control than perceived!

 

As you can see the ^^whole thing was an accidental win. This is not a resistance army who, after fighting many years in the jungle, finally overrun the national seat. If that were the case you would at least have an entity with an agenda and a leadership structure that’s ready to assume headship and accept the responsibility that comes with it. What you had here instead is a hastily formed movement to compensate anomalies built-in in the initial planning! Simply put yaa Baashi this is (the Court is) an ad hoc organization that suffer from a great inadequacy of both managerial capacity and military foresight. Neither its leaders nor their informed supporters deny this. Yet I hope you would agree they generally represent a positive development in the current Somali politics. Because of them, as you correctly noted, the Somali equation has fewer variables to solve today than it had before Court’s emergence. Because of them the culture of looting and robbery is gone, and arguably the expulsion of warlords from the capital will remain their chief contribution to take Somalia closer to its nationhood again. I perfectly know that you know all of these but I have revisited them to put things in a context. When we are talking Mogadishu courts we need to keep in mind how young this movement is and how numerous its enemies are. A user who knows, if I hazard to draw an analogy, the history and the development of the system he uses is less prone for disappointment. Some times high expectations yaa Baashe are the cause of the failure itself as a great and functional system go unused because it doesn’t somehow meet user’s benchmarks! I know that you are not suggesting forgoing the whole movement. By blaming them for the lack of progress and the current political stagnation, you are echoing, I hope, Jamil ibnu Mucamar’s verses to his beloved Buthayna: law kaana fii qalbii ka qadri qulaamatin lighayriki, ma atatki rasaa’ilii! You would have never received my love letters, he wrote to her, had I been consumed by another affair!

 

Given that little background lets see what the courts did or did not do to advance their interest. Recognizing that this is an accidental victory they invited scholars all over the country and sought their counsel and advice. From Burco to Boosaaso to Jigjiga scholars came to Mogadishu and gave their advice and suggestions. Courts didn’t invite these scholars to stir trouble in their respective regions as northern entities attempted to depict but they invited them to seek their genuine advice as to how to proceed and take the next step. The consensus has been to not intervene in the two northern regions namely Puntlnad and Somaliland, to never compromise on warlords bid to return to power but to negotiate with the TFG on clear terms. In the first meeting with TFG at Khartoum, negotiations quickly hit impasse as TFG showed no interest in reaching a genuine deal with the Courts. Surprisingly the issue was not about shariicah implementation as you would have suspected but about the foreign troops. Courts future role in the government was also a contentious issue as well. What happened good Baashe was Courts conceded to TFG by announcing that they recognize it as a legitimate entity and accepted its top two leaders but TFG refused to move one inch and gave no ground to these wadaads. To add insult to the injury, TFG welcomed and at times rearmed defeated warlords to continue the fight against Courts. These two issues are very important to the courts. As far as Courts are concerned the notion of foreign troops is an idea whose time has expired. For them (and I agree with them whole heartedly on this) the issue in the south is no longer a one of law and order. They have effectively taken care of that one. The issue for them in the south is about arriving a political understanding that could lead to a negotiated settlement between them and the TFG. They think they have removed roadblocks and opened Mogadishu’s airport and harbor. TFG has no legitimate reason, it stands to reason, to waste donor’s money on foreign troops! On the second contentious issue, Courts made clear that they would like having a proportionate say and influence on the members from the regions under their authority. In other words politicians and former warlords who came to power as the result of clan based distribution from regions (read: clan) that currently fall under Courts direct authority would risk loosing their current positions. This includes big names like Geedi and Aydid. Again TFG dismissed the whole notion and insisted that they won’t revisit agreed political arrangements in Nairobi! Now what yaa Baashe? Would you still suggest Courts meekly submit and practice TFG’s courtesy in light of this unrealistic and admittedly hostile attitude? If the TFG decided to reduce Courts to no more than a clan courts who replaced their clan’s warlords then you cant reasonably blame Courts to proof them wrong and show that they are indeed different in both composition and conviction. And so Hasan Turk captured Kismayo and Buurhakabo fell under Courts influence. And so the spiral continues!

 

In principle I agree with you that any responsible political entity in Somalia should strive to avoid war. But avoiding war should not come at the expense of reversing positive changes made during last few months and it shouldn’t force the hands of these courts to accept inherently unfair and unreasonable formula that’s proposed by the TFG and it’s regional backers. Granted Ethiopia has an organized and standing army that could march and invade by the mere orders of its superiors, but in the final analysis one fights with whatever army it has and the lack of organizational capacity from courts side should never cause them to give in for Ethiopia’s unreasonable demands.

 

Mintad fara yar mirihii battaa kama macaashaane

Mar hadday mashiinadu qarxaan mawdka loo simane'e .

[Baashi]

Awoowe xiinoow maanta oo kale waa maalintii ishaafalato iyo qunyarsocodku guulaysan jiray. ICU looks more to me as ultra-nationalists itching for a war they neither have the resources nor the man power to win. When one section of this political divide is in collusion with the enemy you want to boot out of Somali soil, it is apparent that this kinda war is unwinnable.

 

The only sure outcome is humongous loss of lives and defastation of one volnureble Somali region - interrevierine if that is a word.

 

Awoowe since you are in the mood of fighting and kicking ethio's behind (the latter is a cause I sincerely support but would like to employ different tac) I suggest you put urself in the shoes of folks in Saakoow, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere...the families who have only their little jibaal to farm and don't wish to flee to despicable Kenyan camps. From their prespective UIC's jingiosim is a non-issue at this moment of time in history.

 

Awoowe don't have time to take up the subject but let me say this:

 

What is happening now on the ground is a civil war with monumental implication in the region. I dare say this is unnecessary, untimely, and uncalled for.

 

I have been hard on the old man and my posts speak to that point loud and clear. However the other side, despite their superior moral and political aspirations have let Somalis down. They concentrated more on securing control over the southern corner of the country. They haven't given a serious consideration to the peace process.

 

Since you cited poems to amke a point, let me end this rampling with this one:

 

Waqtigii yimaadaba xilligu waayo soo curiye,

Walbahaarku waa ii egyahay inaan walaacaaye,

Kol hadaan wabigaa fatahay, waabin kari heynin,

Oo aan waaxyaha kabeyn cududahaa wiiqmey,

Nafta waxaan ku maaweeliyaa samirkii taag waaye,

Mar haduu wadajirkeedii lumoo, wacadkii beenoobey,

Oo geedka kii waab la yidhi, weel ku kala qeybshay,

Wadaantaan nin-tooxsiga ah, iyo waa kumaa darane,

Waji baa far lagu meyrayaa, beesha wadi meyso!

[Peacenow]

This analysis is interesting. But I don't really look much into the Arabs when Somalia is mentioned. Firstly, the issue of Somalia and wht happens in the horn of Africa, is not that much of a focus for them. in other words, Somalia is not important enough to warrant high level attention from their policy makers.

There is though a very strong desire on the part of Somalis that is inside them, and this comes back to my idea of how much we have become Arabized as a people, to long for the Arabs to want them.

 

Only ourselves can make our people, important in the wider region. If we have oil, how can we use it and affect the Arabs, if there is war. In war nothing happens, there is no state, so how can we affect them.

[xiinfaniin]

lol@Waji baa far lagu meyrayaa, beesha wadi meyso!

 

^^Thats very wise and true yaa Baashi! Awoowe kaama fogi laakiin amxaaarada iyo wixii wataan nebcahay! ICU has its shortcomings and i do share w/your assesment that they could have done many things differently to get better results.

[Alle-ubaahne]

Walee odaygii Baashi ahaa meesha waaku banjaray oo wuxuu ka bixi waayay "gaalo ayaa naga adag ee aan is dhiibno" lol

 

Waxaan maqli jiray falaari gigilasho kaagama harto. War meesha ka kac oo diintaada iyo dalkaaga difaac, waleeysan jirin maanta cid ka maqan kacdoonkaan oo soomaali u dhalatay.

 

Waxaan is weydiinlahaa talow hadii maanta ay ahaan laheyd dagaalkii Badar ee gaalada lagu warjeefay iyagoo hub iyo tiro isku darsaday, Oday baashi muxuu ku talin lahaa? Ma wuxuu dhihi lahaa hala cararo, sida haatan ka muuqata, mise wuxuu ku adkeysan lahaa "Allaa weyn ninkii aaminaa awood leh."

 

Xiinow mahadsanid saaxiib for the amazing articulations you presented on this issue. I really admired your foresight and great wisdoms.

[Kamalu Diin]

Baashi and Peace now thumps up. Good work.

[Baashi]

Alle u Baahane,

 

Awoowe seef la bood baad noqotay. Hadaan kuu dhaba galayna ninyahow waxaad tahay nin kafad yara oo miisaan ah like tii maankaalka Kismaayo lagu miisi jiray wata. Oo waxa uu arkaba inta yara saaro xukun aan loo meel dayin iska ridaya.

 

Awoowe war aad seegtay baa jira ee bal i dhagayso. Heedhe horta laaqin ma aha hadal wax garadna ma aha kufaarul Makka iyo niman Muslimiin ah oo qiraya shaadada oo salaada tukunaya in la simo. Waxa kale oo aan meesha ku jirin in dab la huriyo oo beelo dhan la gubo. Oo laba dhinac oo waloolo ah oo diin iyo diirba ka dhaxeeyo in la isku cariyo oo la isku laayo. Waxgarad waxa uu isku dayi lahaa in lakala reebo Amxaarka iyo Somalida oo laga soo reebto tolka xabashka.

 

Waddada nabadaynta Somali iyo xoojinta ama taageerida dawlad Islami ah oo inoo curata iyo qaabka loo abaaray boowe waa qodob laga doodi karo. Intaan horta ma garaysan tahay. Jawaabtu haday haa tahay boowe fadlan takfiirka aashaada oo raggu ha kalaamo.

 

Wiilkan Uways ah iyo nimanka uu hor boodayo iyagga waannu taageeraynaa haday Islam mabda' ku salaysan ay doonayaan in wadanka lagu dhaqo. Taageeradu waa in ay noqotaa mabda' iyo manhajka diiniga ee aynaan ku salaysnaan hebelo. Boowe ma ila socotaa mise sidaadii baad xukun cusub anniga qudhayda igu ridi doontaa waabad yeeliye .

 

Sadex qodob baa laga doonayaa Maxkamadaha:

 

1. Nimanka Islamka u hiilinaya waxa laga doonayaa in ay garaystaan in cadaw badan ay leeyihiin ummadana laga kaxaysanayo oo cilado jira lagu beer dulucsanayo. Sidee xeego loo xagtaa ilkona u nabad galaan inay ka fikiraan baa looga fadhiyaa.

 

2. Nabada oo xujo lagu xiro iyo kooxaha ay is hayaan oo la takfiiriyo waddadii midnimada iyo nabada aannu wada dhowraynay lagu gaari lahaa ma aha. Halkaas hadal baa ka soo laabtay ee waa in laga noqdaa.

 

3. Ethiopia iyo xulufadeeda shidada ay nagu hayaan iyo faragelinta ba'an ee ay noola bareereen waxa keenay xal bay u baahan tahay ee nimanku ha gareysteen. Xalkuna niqaash iyo fadhi baa looga gacan buuxsadaa e ha ogalaadeen in miis rag leeyahay lagu xaajoodo.

 

Midka aad tiri see buu Baashi yeeli lahaa haddii dagaalkii Bedar qabsado, awoowe dagaal haduu ku qabsado hadde waa allay baday oo in aad dirrirtaa ka fursan mayso. Hadde awoowe waxay taladeydu noqon laheyd:

 

Lix halkaad ku joogtaan dagaal laabta ka ogaada,

Haddii luqunta laydin jaro, lugaha meermeersha.

 

Waxaadse gareysataa in nabigu Kufaar Makka la fariistay oo la xaajooday oo uu al Xudaybiya heshiiskii ahaa la galay oo waliba dhowray heshiiskaa oo uu dhaqan galiya jeer ay jabiyeen. Kolkuu xoogaystay oo uu helay taageeridii qabaa'iil badana oo uu kolkaa dagaalamay (after the fact though) waa markii Kufaaru Makka jabiyeen heshiiska.

 

Awoowe car oo car ka dhabee torog torogta aad la joogta SOL oo waxaad yeeshaa inta isa sii taagtid beledkii Somaliya oo tooray iyo AK iyo waxii kale oo saanad ah ee aad heli kadho inta qaadatid ku jihaad Somalida Muslimiinta aha ee gaalada dugaashanaya .

[Baashi]

Oh boy! I was right on the money.

 

Where we go from here? Anyone?

[N.O.R.F]

Since you were the originator of this thread i think its only fitting to hear your take first ya Bashi.

 

What will happen next? Have the ICU left an example for the warlord govnt to follow ie peace, law and order or will old scores be settled on the streets of xamar once the cameras have left by the end of the week?