Blame this on UIC

[Baashi]

Blame this on UIC

By Dheg-dheer ina Hawo

Waxa-la-Yiri low down

 

Arab brothers tried their best to convince the UIC leadership to support a dialogue with TFG. Arab League led by Egypt understood very well that if they don’t reign in the UIC, it will lose influence on Somali question in the US administration power halls.

 

Egypt has played a crucial role in preventing Washington to support Ethiopia’s security plans which envisaged an unrestricted border crossing a la preemptive doctrine, a doctrine Bush so fervently promoted. Losing influence on the regions policy-making in Bush White House meant Egypt will lose the geopolitical tug of war to the regional power Ethiopia.

 

This was a lapse of judgment on UIC’s leadership part. Drunk with victory and overwhelmed with the popular support they received from all Somalis regardless of their clan affiliation blinded them to see the need to drop the conditions they set for the meeting: Ethiopian withdrawal from all Somalia territories. Ironically, Ethiopia was “invited” to the Somali soil by the Transitional Government, an entity UIC has already endorsed! What Egypt has asked UIC to do was to “negotiate” a reasonable settlement that can prevent all out civil war.

 

The UIC have no institutional capacity to manage a costly war with Ethiopia supported by the African Union and the West. Eritrea can help so is Sudan but they won’t do that openly. The UIC doesn’t posses logistical armaments that can withstand aerial bombardment. Yet they declared a “holly” Jihad on a sovereign state. In a way they provided perfect pretext for Ethiopia to “defend” its borders and not wait for UIC until it acquires the means to harm Ethiopia.

 

Ethiopia should not be meddling with the Somalia’s internal affairs. But that’s exactly what it is doing. And it will continue doing so until the opposing political camps reach fair and desirable resolution on core Somali problems. Once the forces fighting over control of the government get on the same page, Ethiopian influence will diminish to tolerable level. UIC got this equation backwards and shunned the only means to hammer out such understanding. The very reason Ethiopia managed to play such a crucial role in Somali politics is the fact that we have yet to resolve the core issues. Having only two players narrows the field and makes the task lil bit manageable.

 

All objective and informed people know that Ethiopia’s aim is to install a satellite or “friendly” regime that would respect its sovereignty particularly over the eastern regions. That much is known. What is expected of UIC was to put an end to this practice by luring the TFG to a dignified exit which is having Benadir under its auspices. In return TFG agrees to share power, revises the constitution, and prepares the country through the transitional period for real and permanent government elected by the public.

 

The most important victory in all of this chess game is that Islamists will have become a part and parcel of Somali politicking, secure a lasting seat at the table, and enjoy a popular support from the citizens. They will also have time to teach the populace about Islam and what it entails before applying the full force of the law to uneducated masses who don’t know how to cross the t and dot the i.

 

The emotional wing of the Islamic movement, however, mixed our aspirations to have Islamic Republic with an uncalled and untimely nationalism and jingoism. As it stands today, TFG seems to have secured UN, US, IGAD, and AU support. The Chinese have already thrown its support to TFG coffins. That means diplomatic support at regional and international levels.

 

It also means material support and even military support to TFG. Not to mention financial support it will receive to bid the wish of Ethiopian and Americans to rid off the region of any perceived Islamic influence on the Somali politics. I put the blame on UIC's door for they didn't see eye to eye to what Egypt was trying to do which was preventing an international consensus to form and throw its support behind the TFG.

 

The other dangerous thing is the clan perception in all of this political maneuvering performed by both sides. The majority of the UIC foot soldiers are from one single tribe. If and when regional and international forces gang up on this group with the help of “Puntlanders” and other coalition tribes, it will evoke clannish emotions that might translate to a full blown tribal wars which now linger just below the surface.

 

The real losers will of course be the farming communities in the area who produce the little we Somalis produce. Not to mention the ripple effect it will have on other provinces of the country. Starvation, displacements of local residents, renewed and deepening mistrust and animosity between clans, the list of setbacks this nationalistic fervor entails is long. All of this, for what?

 

Some of us have already given up the TFG. Our hopes and longing to have stable, just, and functioning government was pinned on the UIC success to end the conflict without compromising their core principles - a doable task considering where the TFG was at couple of months ago: divided house that lacked outside support. It looks like the UIC leadership blew it! Another sad prospect is waiting for the poor residents in the south who thought they have finally arrived. What a disappointment!

 

Still, all is not lost. In principle, UIC has a good vision. In practice, some of its benevolent rule has come to fruition. Mogadishu is peaceful. Lower Shabelle is gradually handing back properties to their right owners, Lower Juba has gotten rid off the "Coalition of Convienace" and today the locals have a say over the port income and how that gets distributed. Sure they had their down moments but who doesn’t have one! What the UIC need to realize is that weary and poor Somalis deserve a break from wars. They need time to rest. What they also need to realize is the TFG is weak and will strike a deal if given a dignified way out and not cornered or humiliated.

 

It is also high time to underscore the residual tribalism within UIC ranks. Indhacade is a tainted man who has blood on his hand. Most of Somalis remember the days when he fought alongside the warlords. If he has repented, more power to him. However he does not deserve a leadership position. Getting rid off him enhances UIC credibility and dispels doubts about the intentions of the UIC. All of this requires competent and credible leadership who are in a position to tackle the real issues. Leadership that has the forseight to look around the corners before they leap forward…

 

To be continued….

[N.O.R.F]

Good analysis but who is Dheg-dheer ina Hawo?

[Baashi]

Inna Hawo is a famous man and I'm surprised that you, all of nomads, don't know this highly regarded man.

 

Degdheer is a just a nick...testament to his talent. He hears the whishpers of closed door gatherings especially the political gatherings. His ever presence in the tea sipping sessions where the latest news of nomad account of Somali politiking is dissected, is unmistakenably large and dominating...

 

In short the man is the epitome of fadhi-ku-dirrir or more accurately cyber-ku-dirrir and SOL politics section is a natural home to his likes.

 

Now you have all the clues I expect you good Notherner to figure him out and give him a deserving nick...

 

Where would we be without Oodweyne, OLOL, Il Generale, and the company. Inna Hawo is their distant cousin to all of them

[General Duke]

Another great read from brother Bashi, your contribution has been missed of late.

The Clan Courts, the name is due to the fact that I have become more convinced over time that in fact they are not a true Islamic movement in any sense. In fact in my opinion the Clan Courts movement, from the outset has been nothing more than a whole sale clan reaction to the political failures of their “leaders” since 2004. Their many documented actions and their denial of the core issues of the south has proven beyond doubt that this group has no real agenda other than to derail the TFG.

 

Domestically over the past six months, corruption, clan centric politics and the use of fear as a tool to keep the public in check has been the driving force behind this movement. Scratch beneath the service and one sees the same faces occupying the same poor , hapless folks, but now sporting a beard and trimmed moustache. Over time many sympathetic souls have lost hope with the movement and their daily “Jihads” against phantom Ethiopia troops which happen to be at every corner in every engagement.

 

Internationally, Bashi, touched upon their dilemma, their isolation and the fact that they do not listen to anyone and thus play in the hands of their enemies, real or otherwise.

 

I would go as far as to suggest that the Clan Courts have only touched the tip of an Ice berg that in fact, they do not have the support of the majority of Somali people aside from their clan regions. That once the tide begins to turn, the majority who have no voice, website or radio/TV outlets will begin to speak out against them.

 

Two points, it is unlikely there will be any major war, as some predict, also there will be no insurgency after the fall of the Clan Courts. For both you need man power and money, they lack both. Also aside from little Djibouti and isolated Eritrea, no other nation has stuck out its neck for the Clan Courts, thus compounding the situation even further.

[Somali_Friend]

Originally posted by Baashi:

Blame this on UIC

By Dheg-dheer ina Hawo

Waxa-la-Yiri

low down

 

Arab brothers tried their best to convince the UIC leadership to support the dialogue with TFG. Arab League led by Egypt understood very well that if they don’t reign in the UIC, it will lose influence on Somali question in the US administration power halls.

Its more than Washington that Egypt loses in this mistake. Wether its TFG side and in some cases like Somaliland which is not TFG side, Egypt has lost a great deal already. Djibuti now has no need of Egypt. It can go directly to Washington or Paris or Berlin and London as its doing.

 

Egypt's life long need in Somalia is to have somebody there that can torment ethiopia and if needed through wars keep ethiopia occupied, poor and underdeveloped just not to use its waters.

 

Egypt has already lost a lot to ethiopia. Ethiopia is already building dams that can generate 2.2 GW some of them are near completion already. For the first time in history egypt was left with no option, but to agree to WB and IMF to finance ethiopian water works, because Sudan has already agreed with Ethiopia (benefit to sudan is peace along the whole border with ethiopia and ethiopia to help with south sudan).

 

Egypt is so much in a hurry now to change direction and come to the TFG camp. Of all places its getting the Chinese to reconcile Egypt with TFG.

America has seen this move and is running to be first to come to TFG side before Russia and compete with the Chinese.

For Ethiopia it has already made its choice long ago, its on TFG side and if its US or China, it doesn't make a big difference for ethiopia. They actually can benefit from the competition as TFG is benefitting.

When all this is said and done, the people of Somalia will thank Yemen for standing up with them against the Arabs or US that has been working so hard to derail Federalist Somalia.

[NASSIR]

Great analysis by Baashi.

 

"It also means material support and even military support to TFG. Not to mention financial support it will receive to bid the wish of Ethiopian and Americans to rid off the region of any perceived Islamic influence on the Somali politics. I put the blame on UIC's door for they didn't see eye to eye to what Egypt was trying to do which was preventing an international consensus to form and throw its support behind the TFG.

 

The other dangerous thing is the clan perception in all of this political maneuvering performed by both sides. The majority of the UIC foot soldiers are from one single tribe. If and when regional and international forces gang up on this group with the help of “Puntlanders” and other coalition tribes, it will evoke clannish emotions that might translate to a full blown tribal wars which now linger just below the surface."

 

 

I hope not, tribal war is far-fetched as Somalia has moved from that stage of clan war into an ideaological war, of course composition of clans is a factor but insignificant since the clan equation dwindles both nationwide and international support. The agenda of PKO will only strengthen the government so that both groups can be forced into a compromise. One group, particularly the Islamist has been reluctant on key issues because of its perception of strength and influence over a large portion of Somalia. Upon the liberation of Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba with the support of the locals can we then bring both groups into the table of discussion. It will take the political empowerment of the local clans of the occupied regions to slacken the negotiating position of the Islamic courts.

[king_450]

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/scp_v3/viewer/index.php?pid=16598&rn=49750&cl=92883&ch=87581&src=

[NASSIR]

^What is he saying?

[king_450]

That was the point am confused too.

[NASSIR]

Little Offtopic:

 

King, In the Hot Zone, the Shadow Company, a military-for-hire organization was intriguing to watch its history and scope of military activities. As the documentary says, it was founded after Rhodesia that is when Zimbabwe took independence. They then joined the SA defense forces and after Mandela became the president, they formed this Shadow Company with Executive Outcomes. Their first success was in Sierra Leone, when rebel forces Revolutionary United Front took over that country through force.

 

What is interesting about it was the ousted president's resolve to calling for help of the Executive Outcome plan. It says, "Over a period of 18 months, Executive Outcomes forced a 15000 strong rebel force to the bargaining table", thus achieving their limited objective. They are also involved in the Iraq war.

[NGONGE]

Couldn’t agree more, Baashe.

Let us hope the UIC quickly get the hint and tone down their war cries. In the end the good guys will be those that avoid conflict at all costs (including tolerating one or two Ethiopian soldiers on Somali soil).

[xiinfaniin]

Good analysis Baashe! I would blame it on them if you could explain these facts for us:

 

ICU’s positive gestures toward the TFG:

• 1- ICU recognized current top leadership, including the president and the speaker.

• 2- ICU invited TFG to come and operate in Mogadishu.

TFG’s hostile pronouncements/actions against ICU:

• 1- Labeled them a terrorist and sought financial/logistical support from abroad based on that premise

• 2- Actively supported and armed defeated warlords to wage a proxy war against ICU

• 3- Refused to compromise on the issue of foreign troops.

Baashow nimanka waa la xaday! The irrationality of Ina Yey’s TFG and its blind supporters is beyond absurdity wallaahi. Nimanka Ethiopia bay kaga dhegtay! Bal car ka fuji adigu. Today Galkacyo is besieged for no apparent reason other than its residents refused to wage a war on behalf of Ina Qaybdiid !

 

There is a gap of perception of what Ethiopia is and what it can do. For some it’s a regional power and an uncontested kingmaker whose regional policies can’t be questioned, much less resisted. For others however Ethiopia is no more than a poor foe who took advantage of our power vacuum, and erected puppets everywhere to advance its interest. One mistake these courts committed is that they didn't talk directly to their enemy, Ethiopia, and pay pass TFG. I honestly think Ethiopia is not ready for a major conflict for they perfectly know the outcome of it. Any war would negatively impact on the two regions in the north, namely Puntland and Somaliland. Their internal implosion is beginning to show now. The courts in the south, on the other hand, would be strengthened and their stature would be enhanced as they truly enter a jihadi war against Ethiopia. Ethiopia knows that and they will be very cautions and wary about entering an open conflict with ICU though they will still put a brave face on it.

 

 

One last thing, I hope that you know that the Bandiiradley conflict is a farce and that there is no danger coming from ICU for Puntland. And that Ethiopia’s envision of Gaalkacyo is a desperate measure for some confused folks whose politics hit a bottom rock as it were.

[Baashi]

Awoowe iyaggaan la hayaa e nimanku waa i qalbi jabiyeen .

 

Xiinoow awoowe UIC’s stated objective is what? To see united Somalia under the Shari'a law and governed by enlightened Islamists. Is it not? That’s all good. I'm all for it. I'm not just sure if the current course is the way to go. To get the finishing line, as you are well aware of, they have to overcome many challenges that lay await in the way. Are they up to the task?

 

You have TFG as a challenger. The leadership in recovery zones up in the North have already felt the heat and are back to the drwaing board in order to find a way to exploit the clan sensibilities of the communities they preside. Ethiopia sees Islamists as a security nightmare and a lethal threat as well to its survival as a multi-ethnic federal state.

 

And then you have paranoid Uncle Sam who finds empowered Islamists in the Horn as undesirable outcome and threat to his interests in the region. Preoccupied with Iraq, Uncle Sam doesn’t mind today if Ethiopia does the dirty work of getting rid off this emerging problem in the region. Finally, they got the pretext they’ve been waiting for. So much so they are confident enough to declare their readiness for “defensive” war.

 

The top of all that you have suspicious Somalis - a community cultured in the tribal politics whereby the slightest perceived bias can shift their allegiance to the opposite side.

 

Given the current situation and the prospect of devastating civil war that might draw regional players on the TFG side, the onus is on the UIC leadership to diffuse the situation.

 

The last thing UIC would want to do in this predicament is to isolate itself. You would think they would divide their enemies by talking to TFG, by assuring Ethiopia that they respect its borders, by convincing the recovering zones' leadership that they are not going to destablize their domain, by empowering its friends like Egypt by listening its advice or taking part the conferences it organizes. Such political moves have the potential of tying the hands of its enemies. Playing the game this way might have convinced both EU and US that encouraging dialogue between the parties is the way to go as Arab League has been arguing.

 

As Ngonge implied sometimes tolerating undesirable events like TFG having their knights in an isolated city is acceptable casualty considering the alternative which is all out civil war that might render the bread basket of the country a proxy war theatre. Allah forbid, can you fathom what that means to the weary and tired Somalis in the area?

 

Awoowe remember retreat doesn’t mean defeat if forces (political) against you are numerous. Tactically, it is part of the war to change your posture. Tactical maneuvering…that’s all am asking. Hek I’m all for running if that’s what is required to reach our ultimate objective. Bob Marley’s “He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day” wisdom is in order!

 

True UIC recognized TFG and invited to the national seat: Mogadishu. How do you work out the details though if the parties in dispute are not talking to each other? The very reason Arab League invited the two sides to the table is to hammer out the mechanism that would spell out how to integrate militias, share power, and define a grace period in which Inna Yussuf’s security would have been guaranteed by Yemenese or other Arab nation or perhaps Ugandan security forces as trust building gesture. Remember behind the doors, UIC has gaven their word to the Arab mediators that they would negotiate with TFG.

 

Arabs in turn held the fort and assured EU and US that deal is in the pipe. Unpredictable Hassan Dahir pulled the rug under Egypt. What a let down awoowe!! The result? Ethiopia scored big time. Not only they scored big but its war will be financed by the powers that be not to mention the diplomatic covers they will got for their blatant aggression. A great equalizer has been lost and now balance is tilted to our neighbor big time.

 

In the history of warfare, contestants have always played their enemies against each other, when and if opportunity present itself, so they would remain strong enough to defeat them one by one. What is this “me against the world” attitude the UIC is adopting?

 

Don’t get me started awoowe. Somalia has been thrown to the wolves! And UIC has played a big role in this. By now you've noticed I guess that I’m not blaming TFG for they are in a pitiful position so much so that all those forces who don’t wish to see Islamic republic in the region are scrambling to its assistance trying to pass resolution they so adamantly opposed few months back. Had UIC exercized the foresight to understand what the clever Egyptians were trying to do which was Somalis to own the process, the agenda of the other side would not have succeeded so easily.

 

As to people making out Ethiopia something it ain’t! At least you would agree that Ethiopia, unlike UIC, is an organized polity with hierarchical order and discipline that can move battalions of its military and air force with single order no question asked!!! Not to mention logistical support in the way of makeshift hospitals, fuel, armaments, transportation, etc. For crying out loud they defeated Somalia at its pinnacle waabe ayadoo is cunaysa oo is gacan bidixeynaysa. Don't tell me Soviets and Cubans cuz in time of war anything is a fair game and what matters at the end is the final outcome.

 

UIC is not there yet. They need to publish a declared political platform that addresses the core issues. They also need to build institutional capacity sxb. To do that you need a break from the costly wars that suck the energy and resource out of any nation that undertakes such a task. Absence of unity of Somalis and the fresh animosity that’s brewing beneath the skin plus the recent memories of violent tribal wars, UIC waging Jihad on its Somali opponents and its Ethiopian kingmakers and backers can back fire. Therefore it stands to reason that UIC is better off to buy time and strike deal with TFG and convince the recovery zones that they are not for destabilizing Somalia and hence deny Ethiopia an opportunity to exploit political differences of Somali factions and assure Islamists a chance to shape Somalia’s future in the crucial post-conflict era.

[Somali_Friend]

Baashi,

Few questions:

 

1. Do you think there is someone in SICU who wants to be the next imposter Mahdi like it has happened in almost all countries at different times?

The rea son for my question is that Shiek Hassan Tahir has stated elections by the people, democracy, charter...is all unislamic and democracy is anti-islam. Any system where the people tell the government how to run things is unislamic.

I have never heard this from Iranians or Saudis to take the two sides that are very far apart. The saudis just started municipal and they are going to raise it to provincial soon. Iranians have elections to the top of the government.

 

 

2. Is there someone in SICU who believes that the majority of somali states or provinces will accept them as government of all somalia?

Reason is that, they seem to want to negotiate as equals to TFG sometimes, especially after they announce that they have captured a village there a town here. Other times they come back and declare that they have accepted the TFG as government for all somalia, but they don't spell out what their place is. Are they state government just like Puntland or Bay and Bakool or they are 2 state government all in one?

 

3. Do they accept that somalia will be ruled by a Federal system?

Reason is that there is at least one state, Puntland, which will not accept to lose its autonomy. That means all other states will want the same. If somalis have anything to offer Somaliland even for negotiation, autonomy will be the minimum everything else is a non-starter. Ethiopia was in the exact same situation in 1991-94/95. For many, especially the somali (as mentioned in the debate about resolution vs. ICU in the parliament) autonomy was the minimum to start talking about federal system. If the federal system was not successful somali region would have had automatic autonomy.

[NGONGE]

It’s also very likely that the United Nations Security Council, in it’s deliberations to lift the arms embargo from Somalia, will order Ethiopia not interfere in Somalia politics. If this should take place, and at first glance, it would be a viewed by some as a sort of victory for Courts. However, the idea of using AU peace forces in Somalia is still unlikely to be ditched. Indeed, some are still arguing for the deployment of Ugandan forces in Somalia! I wonder how the Courts will behave should such a resolution is reached! Will they start ranting about the Ugandan’s being unbelievers too and the necessity of Jihad against them? Could they guarantee that the public at large will not be suffering from propaganda fatigue by then?

 

I fully agree with Baashe there and believe that the Courts’ only way to victory is to sit down with the TFG and make temporary concessions. Because looking at it from all angles and considering all possible outcomes of the political manoeuvrings so far I really can’t see any way out for the Courts. They’ve well and truly walked into this trap (a trap of their own making).