AU Road Map for Peace in Somalia

[Armchair Politician]

Please inform us then, Baashi, how these few thousand peacekeepers are going to, as you so aptly put it "get rid of the war itself"?

 

If they could do such a thing, they would be called peacemakers, not peacekeepers.

[Som@li]

People don’t seem to understand reconciliation, it can’t happen over night, and all grievances you talking about; cannot be address if there is no peace. How about if there is no platform for reconciliation, I think peace-keeping forces are MUST. They have to clear the way for reconciliation.

[Baashi]

Originally posted by Armchair Politician:

Please inform us then, Baashi, how these few thousand peacekeepers are going to, as you so aptly put it "get rid of the war itself"?

 

If they could do such a thing, they would be called peacemakers, not peacekeepers.

You are making a big leap there. I wasn't talking about that. I have been making the case for reconciliation for quite sometimes now. The topic is about reconciliation. I am for it. Others are against it.

 

The issue of peacekeepers should come up after the conflict is addressed. As of today that hasn't happened yet. It won't happen, can't happen unless the very core of the conflict is addressed. The best venue to tackle such undertaking is, in my opinion, on dirrin - a euphasim for reconciliation process.

 

Gotta it?

[Fabregas]

It won't work because the agenda of the African Union is decided in Adiss Ababa, by Jenday Frazer( she's a mecenary too) and the US ambassador.Ugandans came on top of war on terror equipment provided by Yanks and then took charge of Muqdisho Prisons were thousands of Somalis were imprisoned by Ethiopians. They also provided political, military and diplomatic cover for an outright Ethiopian Intervention in Somalia. In fact IGAD and AU were the channels used for violating Somalia's sovereignity through her neighbouring states even before I.C.U came to power. You can't streghten political reconcialition by arming and protecting one side against another. Thus Ugandans and Burundians in SOmalia never came to Somalia for peacekeeping; they came to propel, safeguard and protect the security interests of the T.F.G warlords, which as I said have been decided from Adiss via video link to Washington D.C. They can be considered as mecenaries in the War on Terror.

 

 

I mean who exactly are the Ugandans guarding? the presidential palace, not SOmali civilians against any attacks, violations or war. They are constantly liasing and coordinating and working side by side (although in a covert manner) with the General Gabre himself. So much for the fancy drawn up list and plans to reconcile Somalis.

[Xoogsade]

The ICU brought peace to warring clans without foreign help. Their success was due to their credibility with the people. It is not difficult to convince somalis the importance of peace and for them to lay down the weapons if they are dealing with men whom they can trust with their lives. Question is: A- Who has credibility with somalis for them to come to the darin and discuss peace, justice and reconciliation?

 

All foreigners should stay out of somalia and somali issues. Their role should be confined to humantarian work only. Honest somali person will not require the presence of a foreigner to sit with another somali to reconcile and make peace.

[Baashi]

Camel boy, you are off topic. Stick to the topic fella. True there are interest groups making things difficult for all of us. Those include Uncle Sam and AU.

 

Point taken.

 

At issue is RECONCILIATION? Do Somalis need it now, berrito, saad dambe, saakuun, at all! I mean regardless who did what or who is supporting whom are we better off solving thsi sh*t by ourselves under acacia tree somewhere in the san dunes?

 

Xoogsade,

 

Yes bro. That's true then and still true. As I said let bygones be bygones. Inna Yey is here. His hordes are here. Somaliland is here to stay. So is Puntland. UIC is not going away. Al-shabaab are determined and have time on their hands.

 

I couldn't care less really. I'm sipping my latte down here. All and I mean all of my relatives are outta there. They have the benefit of education and government services.

 

However some Somalis are paying the price of this conflict. It is unwinnable one. Right or wrong, Ethiopia sees its backyard as an existential threat if left unchecked or untamed. Uncle Sam sees this is as too close to the energy reserves and a hub if taken by undesirable elements that can be used to disrupt world trade.

 

See ya next Monday fellas (won't work 2morrow). I’m done for the day.

[Xoogsade]

Baashi, the way I see it, damned if you do, damned if you don't. It is depressing.

[AYOUB]

Xiin and Baashi

You talk the reconciliation talk but can you guys walk it? What are you guys bringing to the so called dirrin ? Talk is cheap brothers. Road map, peace process, reconciliation durrin and other buzzwords aside, what else? Are you, for example, prepared to hand back Kismaayo to the rightful (and almost ethnic-cleansed owners?) It's easy for one to claim to be a "peace-maker" and "for reconciliation" but what's there to show that you are genuinely prepared to address others' "clan grievances"? The conflict is just one aspect that needs addressing, there are unarmed people who suffered decades if not centuries of injustices that are not involved in it. I know what we have here are cyber "peace-makers" with little - if any - impact on events back home, but the least you can do is show what you have to offer and prepared to "sacrifice" for the sake of the illusive peace.

[Fabregas]

quote:Camel boy, you are off topic. Stick to the topic fella. True there are interest groups making things difficult for all of us. Those include Uncle Sam and AU.

 

The topic is to do with AU saxiib and their role in reconciling Somalis as they put it in their own fancy drawn up list. The poster of the topic asked if they can be successful in reconciling Somalis and perhaps meeting their other objectives. Thus I am saying they can't reconcile or make peace between Somalis because they are taking one side and are essentially American mecenaries.

 

 

quote:Do Somalis need it now, berrito, saad dambe, saakuun, at all! I mean regardless who did what or who is supporting whom are we better off solving thsi sh*t by ourselves under acacia tree somewhere in the san dunes?

 

The answer is Somalis need reconciliation today, tommorow and saad dambe.However, reconcialition has demands and everybody will come to the table with a set of principles or policy objectives for Somalia. So it's not an issue of Somalis sitting under a tree under making love(not in that way), because all Somali groups have vested interests and foreign backers. Somalia is not at a Civil war like the 1990s and there is no proxy clan war as some would have us believe. This is a different war that has roots of religion, ideology, clanishness, international wars and many other elements. This isn't a traditional Somali conflict by any means. Thus one will not solve the issue in Somalia by collecting Somali clan elders with fat bellies and walking sticks who are only after money. If this is what some mean by reconcialition, then we saw it fail in Muqdisho last year and we have seen it fail for 17 years.

 

 

Truth be said, reconciliation( to an extent) is at the hands of America, Ethiopians and the fellow warlords they brought to power. The other side has always been open to negotiation, dialogue and compromise with them, but clearly the demands they are making are totally unacceptable. Marka, everybody believes in negotiation and reconcialition, nobody has a monopoly on these phrases. Even Abdullahi Yusuf also firmly believes in reconcialition( when it suits him). Here are the demands that He(Yusuf) would bring to the table:

 

1. I.C.U should firstly disarm and recognise T.F.G before coming to the table.

 

2. Americans demand certain men in the ranks of the I.C.U and Alshabaab should be handed over. Furthermore, Ethiopians look likely to be in Somalia so long as those men are around.

 

3. T.F.G insist that Ethiopians are helping the the recognised Somali government and have a right to be in Somalia.

 

4. I.C.U in return demand removal of all Ethiopian troops from Somalia( something they wont accept).

 

So on what grounds should I.C.U reconcile, negotiate and compromise on those demands? Should the I.C.U disarm, recognise Ethiopian occupation and come to a qhudac tree? How can the I.C.U hand over wanted men who are armed and have their own militias? How can the I.C.U recognise that Ethiopians have a right to be in Somalia, when it is this very principle that brought them to war in the first place? Marka, there is negotiation and compromise; and there is also handing Somalia over to Ethiopia on a plate with lots of kethcup(Somali blood). Of course SOmalis can hold grand reconciliation meetings, but I doubt the T.F.G officials will make peace with their rivals and go hom to General Gabre to instruct him, " your time is up bro,we Somalis made peace under a qhudac tree, time to go home Gabre". Know that they( Ethiopians) will send their Somali henchmen with a list of their own demands. If you were brought to power by them; guarded by them; and politicall supported for advancing Ethiopians interests, then is most likely would one have to show a certain amount og loyalty to Meles Zenawi.

 

 

Marka, those are the issues that are causing a stalemate in Somalia. If one can break those points, ie assure I.C.U and other Somalis Ethiopian will leave and secondly assure them(Ethiopians) if they leave T.F.G wont be attacked, you have a chance of at least starting a reconcialition process. Issues concerning Somaliland, Puntland, clan grievances and reconciling Somali clan elders must are of less importance than those key sticking issues.

 

 

One can't runaway from the reality in Somalia and pretend that Ethiopia's role in minimal whilst Somali clan elders/leaders hold the key to expelling them from a qhudac tree. No point sitting under a tree when some young Somalis are going to toe toe with Ethiopian tanks, when both couldn't be bothered about the outcome of any qhudac tree meeting.

 

 

So what to compromise and negotiate on exactly? What if those demands are unacceptable to both parties? Who comes to the Qhduac tree

:

 

Abu Mansur, Adan Ceyrow, Hassan Turki, Dahir Aweys? Will Americans allow T.F.G to meet with those wanted men and vice versa? Will Gabre Dilla come to the Qhudac tree or will he listen in from a listening device? Should I.C.U allow some presence of EThiopian troops or should they still stick to their original demands of all removal? Should resistance stop for the time being? Should their be resistance at all? Will Ahmad Diriye be allowed to come and are warlords willing to give up their newly found power,extortion, checkpoints and looting? Once one answers those questions, then it will tell you something about the chances of a peace process in Somalia!

 

anyone?

[N.O.R.F]

^^Any negotiation should firstly deal with the Ethiopian presence. An agreed time table for a phased withdrawal is of priority. Anything short of that or any pre-conditions (as you stated) will not work. The pre-conditions have been there and there are no signs of a change to them.

[Juje]

GJ, labo walala ah oo is diriraya hadi aad aragtiid maxad ku dirireysan lama yirah, ileen dhaxal aya ka dhaxeyee.

Hence, Soomaali weligeed ayey is diriri jirtey ee hada waxa balayada keeney kuwa Axmarada so watey. Marka Aw-Muxsin, Aw-Mansoor, Aw-Kuuku, iyo Aw-jini wa qasab in ay wada hadlaan , waayo ayaga ayey wax ka dhaxeyaan - dib uu heshisiin ayaga ka baxsaan oo ay cid kale ku weheliso wa bar kama so qaad. Hadiba ay dhacdo in dirinta ay ciid kale oo aan aheyn kuwa dhaxalka iskaleh dhinac kaso fadhistan wax xal ah oo la garaya maleh.

Halkey arrintu ka quruntey wa mahaas, jer toos logu hagaagow xalinteeda - jah warerkaan ayan ku jireyna. Horey aya waxaa lo yiri 'ayaadi alif wax maleh ka halowda Al-Baqra kama toosto.

[Che -Guevara]

Originally posted by Baashi:

[No kidding! I’m sure you are aware of the existence of the ragging conflict in Somalia. That much is given I guess. What is not clear to me is if you can really list the names of the warring factions. I know it is stretch but if you would can you say why or even, generally speaking, what are the root causes of the conflict

[/QB]

I'm completely oblivious to the situation back home,and forget about who's fighting who .

 

I do know one thing though, the Somali masses are very indiffirent to their own plight. Shacabka aan iska naxeen cid ka naxeesa ma jidho. Bringing the socalled Somali leaders are not the key to solving Somalia's problems

[Fabregas]

Juje, negotiation and reconciliation are two different things. There has to be negotiation to facilitate a process for reconcialition. The warrning factions should "negotiate

" with each other to try to create a room for withdrawl of foreign troops and to also coordinate some sort of ceasefire. Hezbollah negotiates with Israel but Hezbollah can never reconcile with Israel. Thus any grand reconciliation meeting( like the one that happened in Muqdisho) which pretends that there is a conflict between clans in Somalia and parades old men hugging each other will not make peace in Somalia let alone reconcile them. True reconciliation will happen once all foreign troops leave Somalia and Somalis agree to this formula( ceasfire, withdrawl, talks etc...). Though one must be dreaming to believe that SOmalis will sit at a tree and agree to tell the Ethiopians to go home. This is nothing short of a dream, considering that one group has said the Ethiopians are their brothers and protectors( politics is about loyalty and interests).

[xiinfaniin]

^^Geeljire, you made progress there. You can call whatever you like but Somalis must sit down and discuss about where to go from here. Ethiopia ha baxdo is a beautiful slogan. But practically as long Somalis are divided Ethiopia will have an unparallel influence on our affairs. The way to challenge her is not to just fight and die rather the means of defeating Ethiopia, at least symbolically, is to negotiate and ultimately reconcile our differences. The choices for Somalis are distinctly clear:

1- fight unprepared, lose, flee and seek better life in distance lands

2- wise up, understand the root cause of your enemy’s triumph, compromise to each other, and reconcile your differences. Then…

 

Now I am not sure if this African Union road map has the stamina behind it to succeed. I am inclined to say it would not work. Adeer somalida aan anigu arkay dagaal ma yaqaanaan, dawladna ma yaqaanaan, waana dad in la caymiyo u baahan. Our ills are many laakiin waxba waxbay dhammaannee bal dadka yaan la qaxin oo cadowga raba inuu dalkooda dhaxlo lasiinin all the reasons to exact death and destruction on the innocent masses. And in that verse, and by any angle you look at, Baashi's call for reconciliation (a noble impulse in its own merit) is impregnable. There has to be an element of honest here.

 

Ayoub , Kismayo (as painful as its current experience is) is a minor issue in comparison to the big picture that’s failed Somalia. Criminal gangs that hold it do so not because they hate certain groups but because that’s the only way they came to know during civil war years to survive. The reconciliation we are talking about here would have far greater impact on Somalia as a whole not only on Kismayo. If it succeeds it would do away Ethiopian presence in the south, it would bring your region into the fold, and it would create an environment where individual clans would not find necessary to organize their own militia to defend their perceived clannish interest!

[Juje]

GJ, we probably might have the same intention but different approach. But let me ask you this, if the presence of the Ethiopian occupation is used as a tool by one of the stake holding groups in Somali reconciliation to safeguard their interest and role in the process - how would you go around solving this obstacle - since you prioritized their (occupation forces) utter and immediate withdrawal as paramount to the initiation of any reconciliation conference.