Islamist insurgency grows in Somalia

[Abwaan]

Xan Rice, East Africa correspondent

Monday November 19, 2007

The Guardian

 

 

The Islamist-led resistance in Somalia is growing in scale and aggression, with insurgents openly taking on Ethiopian troops and African Union peacekeepers in the capital Mogadishu, in fighting that has killed dozens, possibly hundreds, in the past three weeks.

Early on Saturday two groups of rebels fired grenades at Ugandan peacekeepers and briefly entered their post before being repelled. The attack, which coincided with an internet call by a Somali Islamist extremist, Adan Hashi Ayro, for peacekeepers to be targeted, came after two weeks of fighting and reprisals between insurgents and the allied Ethiopian and government troops that caused a massive exodus from Mogadishu.

 

 

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The UN estimates that 173,000 people have fled the city since October 27, adding to the 330,000 already displaced from the capital this year. Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of civilians were killed, as both sides fired shells indiscriminately into residential neighbourhoods.

Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah, the UN secretary general's special representative for Somalia, said last week that the huge displacement, coupled with high child malnutrition rates and extreme difficulty in delivering aid, had made this Africa's worst humanitarian crisis.

 

Few people believe that the situation is about to get better. Several experts interviewed by the Guardian say that the insurgents are becoming more powerful. A military analyst and a western diplomat to Somalia, neither of whom wished to be named, warned that the angry mood and conditions that allowed an Islamist movement to defeat a gang of warlords and take power in Mogadishu last year were returning. "We are on a merry-go-round and it's back to 2006," said the analyst. "The insurgents are gaining not only in physical strength, but in moral strength too."

 

African Union commanders told diplomats last week that the insurgents were actively fighting in 70% of Mogadishu's neighbourhoods. There are also signs that the resistance has spread beyond the capital. Islamic courts are reported to have taken control of two towns in the far south, while Hassan Al-Turki, a radical Islamist on the US terror list, is understood to be expanding his influence up the coast from his base near the Kenyan border.

 

Analysts say that the situation reflects a chronic miscalculation by the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi, who sent his troops into Somalia late last year, and by the US, which backed that decision. The goal was to rout the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), which had brought a measure of calm to Mogadishu for the first time in more than a decade, but which was accused by Washington and Addis Ababa of close links to al-Qaida.

 

Ethiopian troops easily swept through the Islamist fighters and installed the weak and unpopular Somali government in Mogadishu. The calm did not last long. Remnants of the SCIC's military wing, the Shabaab, launched a low-scale insurgency, using hit-and-run tactics and remote-controlled bombs to target Ethiopian and government troops. Many ordinary Somalis also resented the presence of tens of thousands of troops from Ethiopia. Soon warlords, clan leaders and businessmen were aiding the resistance with money, arms and their own militias.

[Baashi]

With the stroke of the pen, Ethiopian aggression can be terminated. You save thousands of civilians, end the conflict, thwart Melez's "wag the dog" strategy, and inaugurate a new dawn.

 

It is doable and Allah is my witness. This can be done. It takes a man to swallow his pride and make necessary compromises. The time has come.

 

This conflict has many variables and I'm taken back by the simpletons in this site who sees things as if they are black and white with null grey area. Far from it. It is very complicated conflict. It has class, land, clan, personal ambition, historical rivalaries, and religious component to it.

 

Suicidal missions carried out by few brave individuals backed by one segment of the Somali society will not end the conflict. Take it from me fellas.

 

Adduun

[ElPunto]

^War amus. Alugu jihaado kufaarta Xamar jooga. I tell ya - Dheeg is the solution. That's the new motto. Get with it

[Juje]

Originally posted by Baashi:

It is doable and Allah is my witness. This can be done. It takes a man to swallow his pride and make necessary compromises. The time has come.

Could you expand on that awoowe, very interesting indeed.

[ElPunto]

I wonder why neither 'expert' wished to be named. Seems one would want to take credit for accurate prognostications. Go figure.

[Faarax-Brawn]

Originally posted by ThePoint:

I wonder why neither 'expert' wished to be named. Seems one would want to take credit for accurate prognostications. Go figure.

I am guessing then,all is well in Hamar,yaa Point?

 

Go figure indeed!

[ElPunto]

^Adeer - leaps of logic are clearly quite easy for you but not for me. Reread to get the point

[Baashi]

With pleasure Juje.

 

Awoowe I don't pretend to know much bu I do make use of my noodles. Here is the alphabet of the Somali civil war, Ethiopian aggression, so called war against terror, and lineal segmentation based negative tribalism. Bear with me...

 

Awoowe this civil war is so complex it is beyond the ability of the nomad mind to comprehend all of its variables. When these forces I mentioned above converge ending the conflict becomes uphill battle. But not untenable. There are two options:

 

One is Lix halkaad ku joogtaan, dagaal laabta ka ogaada. Haddii luqunta laydin jarro lugaha meermeersha.. With no grass root support and popular backing that transcends across the divide , they are reduced to wage an urban war in the civilian neighborhoods. They hit. They run. Tigre forces hits back. They don't advance an inch. Innocent civilians pay the ultimate price. And both sides start their spin campaign. This is not how you win wars.

 

The other option is to start believing in a world where there are winners take all crap. You compromise. You talk to the enemy. You negotiate. Build coalitions. Form alliances. Mend fences. That is khidca.

 

There was a song penned by a man by the name of Abdiwali Kilwe Cawaale in which he spills this wisdom:

 

Boqol aan u turihayn,

Kan beegsada ma geesaa?

Kan begsada ma fuleybaa?

 

Boholyoow ma ciilbaa?

Ninka baadi kaa maqan?

Beylahshaa ma gacal baa?

 

I don't expect you to grasp the underline thesis in the song in its totality but I expect you at least to understand the first three lines.

 

Look there is no TFG to talk about anymore because most of the players in the original officers club are either defected, demoted, rendered irrelevant, or go awol in disgrace. However the king makers are still there and desperate for a way out. Give them a dignified exit as a starting point in the long road of ending the conflict.

[Kashafa]

Give them a

dignified exit

as a starting point in the long road of ending the conflict.

Finally, a nugget of straight talk. A dignified exit for Abdullahi Yusuf and the TFG is what you wanted and were calling for all along. A way for them to save face, right ? A way for them to cling on to power and govern a country that they have decimated over the past 17 years, both with their own hands and with Tigray armour ? In effect, a way for them to be rewarded for their decades of bloodwashed service, eh ?

 

See, abti, Aniga I'm also with you in calling for an for an exit, but it isn't really dignified. It basically involves drilling holes in the faces of dhabo-dhilif leadership and their supporters. I say that with no rancour. Just a matter of fact analysis. You want the TFG to stay(in one form or the other) while I, and millions of Somalis on the ground and in the Diaspora, want to excise the cancer that has turned Somalia into a festering playground for your Tigray friends.

 

Perhaps you can hold a posthumous interview with your comrade Faarax Aglal and ask whether his exit was dignified and whether his dhabo-dhalifnimo finally paid off. Yacni, was it all worth it in the end, na'mean. His answer could prove to be very illuminating to those who are contemplating dhabo-dhilif'nimo as a career move.

 

The other option is to start believing in a world where there are winners take all crap. You compromise. You talk to the enemy. You negotiate. Build coalitions. Form alliances. Mend fences. That is khidca.

^^ Alliance. Compromise. Synergy. Win-Win. Holistic relationships. Green living ? Yoga ? Athiga you're taking this new-agey baloney too seriously, abti. Somalia is NOT your local office where you have to beg(to get a extra day vacation), bargain(to switch shifts with ur co-worker), or form alliances(to scheme on who gets the next promotion). Lol, that quote cracked me up. Reminded me of The Office

 

Now lemme correct you on that 'khidca' word you slipped in there. The Xadeeth reads: "Al-Xarbu Khidca". Khidca literally translates into deceit but in the context of the hadeeth means stratagem of war, ie doing whatever it takes, including lying, deceiving, and all sorts of Machiavellian tactics when one is at war with the enemy. With me so far ? Good. Now what you are calling for is not khidca. It's not strategy. It has no long-term strategic vision to win back Somalia from the TFG vultures. It offers no way to heal our country from the clan divisions that plauge.

 

It's plain ol' surrender dressed up in the guise of the dirin(remember that ?), is what it is. You are in effect asking the thorougbreds of the Noble Muqaawama to lay down their arms and trust in the (non-existent)benevolence and (non-existent)judiciousness of the same malaaciin who have prostituted themselves as Ethiopian shoe-carriers since their youth, who mercilessly shelled and bombarded the capital city of Somalia to break the will(scorched earth tactics) of it's courageous people, who have done the worst form of national betrayal by accepting for a few dollars, to bury nuclear waste in Somali soil. These are the type of men you want to rule Somalia. These are the men you want us to cede power to. And finally, these are the men you want to give a 'dignified exit' too. Can you now see why one would be inclined to think you're a lil bit qac?

 

For argument's sake, let's say the Muqaawama stops sending Dhabodhilifs and Tigrays to Hell. Let's say they come to the dirin(sham and fake as it is). What then ? What terms will the dhabo-dhilifs offer ? I take that back. What terms will Meles Zenawi offer ? You think that he'll simply withdraw his armies because it's the right thing to do ? Even if there is a 'power-sharing' agreement, you think that he won't leave a few battalions behind for 'security purposes' ? Be realistic. Don't give me no inspirational mumbo-jumbo about hearts coming together over hilib geel and maraq. You know what time it is.

 

Saaxib, we get it. You deeply believe in the TFG. Genocide, occupation, ethnic cleansing, and untold horrors will all be excused away in your warped mentality since it's the price of bringing back 'dawladnimo'(and by now, we all know what that means, right ?) You have also shown a great comfort level with the Ethiopian occupation and it's presence of it's armies in Somalia. Anytime a person choses to pontificate about what happened in 1969, or 1884, or 1200 as opposed to what's going on today is a clear sign of desperate person gasping for air. That 'complexity' argument you constantly tote is a dead giveaway. There's nothing 'complex' about occupation. There's nothing 'complex' about genocide. There's nothing complex about Abdullahi Yusuf and the TFG. And there is no complexity to Resistance, a time-honoured obligation of principled men and women.

[Baashi]

Super. Where does "Hudeibiyah Approach" fit in all of this khidca thing? Like striking a deal with Kufaarul Makka huh! I mean they even refused to sign the dotted line on the grounds of the prophet being given a divine title. They wanted the son of Abdullahi Ibnu Mudhalib, one of Qureysh equal mansab with other Qureysh.

 

And yet the prophet pbuh obliged to meet their demands. Have you ever pondered over the wisdom in striking a favorable deal with your enemy if that allows you to recover, recuperate, mend fences with neutral elements of the mix, build alliances, or what have you whatever it takes to have the upper hand at the end.

 

Without burst of emotions tell me exactly why is it so terrible to give the other side an dignified exit if that brings about what we are all after: peace and getting a chance to planting seeds that empower this fractured movement of Islamists so that they will be able to capture the golden cup?

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by Baashi:

With the stroke of the pen, Ethiopian aggression can be terminated. You save thousands of civilians, end the conflict, thwart Melez's "wag the dog" strategy, and inaugurate a new dawn.

 

 

Baashi, with all due respect you have been saying this for a long time, but you are yet to provide us any with any real ways this can be done.Adeer things are easier said to done, you should know this especially from Somali politics. Note that I am not against your ideals, rather how easy and logical you make seem, ie to thwart Meles Zenawi and Somalia gains peace just like that "with a drop of a pen".

[Castro]

^^^^^ It's not the drop of a pen but the drop of the pants, he speaks. He just forgot the step that comes after that: the bending over.

 

Let the old man be. He's overdue for a vacation.

[Faarax-Brawn]

It is doable and Allah is my witness. This can be done. It takes a man to swallow his pride and make necessary compromises. The time has come

Baashi,wax lais weydiyo maxumee, Which men should swallow their pride?

 

Those who thought(think)that the only way to bring a government to Xamar is to invade it or those who are fighting and defending their land against an invading army?

 

Wa qaaluuu....

[NGONGE]

Heh@Baashi! You walked into that one.

 

Look, it’s very very simple. There is the TFG on one side and then there is the Resistance. Tribes, clans, sides, opportunists, fake-mullahs, good-mullahs, looters, killers, innocent people, murderers or liars don’t count here. There are only TWO sides. The fight is to the DEATH (mostly of women, children, old men and animals). It’s a war and as such it is pointless to attempt to apply logic or rational to it (not unless it’s used for propaganda purposes). Therefore, you have to dig deep into your inner soul and decide what side you’ll be on.

 

Will your strong sense of self-preservation compel you to tag along behind an Ethiopian tank (whilst running the trifling hazard of stepping on a roadside bomb)! Could you be dreaming of fighting me for that ambassadorship of Peru? Could you see yourself chanting the words "dear Amxara welcome welcome, UIC folks are yalam yalam”?

 

Or maybe, after some thought and contemplation you may decide that the Resistance boys are your ciyaal xaafad! Can you see yourself crouching in street corners with your weapon on your shoulder and dreams of liberty in your heart? Could you see yourself as the hero of the hour? The champion of your clan, ideology, chosen side and land? Could you resist the exclusive Somali compulsion to kill all Amxara in sight? Can you picture yourself chanting "to die, to live, to die or live; I must slay me a dhabo-dhalif”?

 

Keep your justifications, understanding and logical deductions to yourself, matey. All you have to do is make a simple choice.

[Baashi]

And I refuse to make that simple choice. It is a false choice. There is a third way.

 

Castro that's over the top buddy. Frustrated?

 

Camel Boy gotta run to a meeting I'll be back Insha'Allah.