Will Djibouti be the First ?

[Jacaylbaro]

Hargeisa (Observer). For 17 good years, the world has followed a policy that some scholars dubbed the “after you please”. Many countries have quietly indicated that they were pleased with the progress that Somaliland has made, but would prefer if another country recognized Somaliland first. Countries outside of Africa also were reluctant to move ahead of Africa and the African Union.

 

 

 

Over the past month and a half the Government of Djibouti has broken new ground. The President of Djibouti made several speeches in which he indicated that Somaliland’s ability to rebuild its economy and create stability deserved recognition. Djibouti has been dealing quietly with Somaliland although this relationship suffered a number of low intensity frictions on several occasions.

 

 

 

Last week, for the first time, the Government of Djibouti sent a high level delegation lead by the Minister of Finance to Somaliland. A senior adviser to the President Mr. Hashi Abdillahi accompanied the Minister. Somaliland has been courting Djibouti for many years and successive Somaliland presidents and many ministers have visited Djibouti, but this was the first time a Djibouti minister visited Somaliland.

 

 

 

After the October 29 terrorist attacks in Hargeisa, Djibouti took another admirable stand. In addition to expressing sympathy, many of the wounded were ferried to military hospitals in Djibouti. Many of them have thankfully returned to their homes.

 

 

 

The Djibouti delegation in Somaliland made unequivocal remarks that Djibouti is now considering recognizing Somaliland. Moreover, Djibouti diplomats in France have quietly signaled that Djibouti is now looking carefully at new ways of dealing with Somaliland.

 

 

 

Many observers believe that this is really not a change of heart. Djibouti and Somaliland share so many ties that a cordial relationship between them is all but inevitable. The problem, the analysts say, was that Djibouti, like many other countries, did not want to be seen as “breaking up” Somalia. The Government of Djibouti has also invested heavily in and gave priority to the Somalia reconciliation process. The reconciliation process appears to be all but dead. Col. Abdillahi Yusuf and his Prime Minister are at loggerheads, while militant opposition groups predominated by Islamist radicals are marching toward Baidoa and Mogadishu. Abdillahi Yusuf has also strangely bolted out of the Djibouti Accords sabotaging and putting the 4-year old UN-backed and internationally-endorsed reconciliation program into tailspin. He is now advocating that Libya’s Qadaafi start a new process. IGAD has already threatened sanctions against him if he does not abide by the agreements his TFG signed in Djibouti.

 

 

 

Djibouti must not be alone in taking another look at Somaliland. The recent terrorist attacks in Somaliland make it abundantly clear that the world community has tied Somaliland down for the benefit of an illusive and unworkable Union with Somalia. After 17 years, Somalia remains in a quagmire and the only tangible outcome of this strategy was that Somaliland was forced to remain vulnerable and fragile. Somaliland’s vulnerability now poses a new risk for the entire region. If Somaliland is radically destabilized other countries in the Horn and in deed the Gulf of Aden will become more vulnerable.

 

 

 

Djibouti should now take the next step and accord full diplomatic recognition to their brothers in Somaliland. Yes, politicians in Somaliland sometimes mismanaged Somaliland’s policy towards Djibouti. It is, however, high time that the two countries go beyond few past missteps and start a full-fledged a relationship. In spite of all our best efforts and intentions, it may take Somalia a long time to put its house in order and neither Djibouti nor any other country can now be blamed for breaking it up.