Ethiopia, Eritrea may go to war 'in weeks'

[NGONGE]

LIQAYE,

 

How in the world could I present a positive position on something I've already branded as impractical, saaxib?

 

Still, from your post I sort of understand your argument there to be something along the lines of: stop crushing our ideas and show us what you have, if you think you're clever enough! For purposes of civility and because we have not locked horns in the past, I shall refrain from stating the obvious here. We have plenty of time for falling out and resorting to sarcasm or condescension. So, I am going to try to be as clear as I could possibly can and as upbeat as this discussion would allow (don't expect miracles). But before I shed my eternal caution and dare to dream, let me throw some questions (and a few answers that I've gleaned from the arguments here) into the ring.

 

 

What is our goal here?

 

Can we agree on it being: A free, peaceful, independent and united (at least against Ethiopian interference) Somalia.

 

How will that goal be achieved?

 

By destroying, disrupting, or unsettling Ethiopia!

 

Can Ethiopia be destroyed, disrupted or even unsettled long enough to allow Somalia to get back on its feet?

 

Yes. There are many divisions and cracks in Ethiopian society and the Meles dictatorship is only keeping it all intact through means of tyranny and oppression! There are also many resistance fronts fighting against Ethiopia and working towards unsettling it. If Eritrea starts a war with Ethiopia the possibility of toppling that country will inch closer to becoming a certainty!

 

Why would these groups agree to work together and why have they not done it before?

 

!!!

 

Do all these groups agree on the need to unsettle or even destroy Ethiopia? Aren't some of them Ethiopians themselves?

 

!!!

 

Does Eritrea's quarrel with Ethiopia extend beyond fighting for anything more than some disputed borders?

 

!!!

 

Do the ONLF boys want a union with Somalia?

 

!!!

 

Do Somaliland and Puntland consider it in their interests to sit by and watch these attempts at toppling Ethiopia?

 

!!!

 

How and why will the rest of Somalia get itself involved in something they clearly consider to be a southern problem (through their inaction if not their words)?

 

!!!

 

Is the goal really the resurrection of Somalia or is it the destruction of Ethiopia?

 

!!!

 

To follow on from the last question: what guarantees are there that those fighting will not obsesses with the idea of destroying Ethiopia (like what happened to the Barre government in the past) and they'll forget about saving Somalia (like what happened to the Barre government in the past)? In other words, when the Ethiopian elephant is brought down what is there to stop the vultures from returning to fight amongst themselves again?

 

!!!

 

 

-------------------------------------------------

 

 

Now that I got this off my chest I can happily indulge myself and join Xiin in his speculation. I don't think I would ever find it practical of course but I suppose I'll have to focus all my positive energy on the point of it not being impossible. Watch this space.

 

Ps

If I appear sarcastic to you, rest assured that it's not intentional. I'm just naturally smug.

 

Pps

Kindly note that I've got a bleeding lip from biting it so hard in order to stop myself from scoffing at the film reference in your last post. I expect some credit for this mighty effort.

[Jamster]

Classic

[Liqaye]

Ngonge said:

 

LIQAYE,

 

How in the world could I present a positive position on something I've already branded as impractical, saaxib? [Frown]

 

Still, from your post I sort of understand your argument there to be something along the lines of: stop crushing our ideas and show us what you have, if you think you're clever enough! For purposes of civility and because we have not locked horns in the past, I shall refrain from stating the obvious here.

Ngonge you know full well what I mean, we have not locked horns because I do not attempt to get into arguments with cyber entities, if there is an argument of ideas going on then I participate, if it is a witty comeback affair then I keep my tape measure in my pocket as I suggest you do.

I appreciate that you have shown me the civility not to start with the sarcasm of the cynic but my previous post was not only directed at you but to the gallery as well.

 

When I ask you to make some sort of positive statement I expected you enumerate how you think xiin's ideas would not work, to brand them impractical with out explaining why creates a non sequituir.

 

So to keep the discussion on track I shall answer the questions you are asking [again do you notice the questions part in all your posts?]

 

What is our goal here?

 

free, peaceful, independent and united (at least against Ethiopian interference) Somalia.

we agree here

 

How will that goal be achieved?

 

By destroying, disrupting, or unsettling Ethiopia!

Not soley brother as you might have gleaned in my posts, but the neutering, destablisation, debilitation of ethiopia as things stand presently is a prerequsite in this case, a rape victim cannot be maligned for gouging out the eyes of their tormenter is it not so?

 

Can Ethiopia be destroyed, disrupted or even unsettled long enough to allow Somalia to get back on its feet?

 

Yes and please do not widen the scope of the argument unnecessarily, somalia would be afforded the chance to get on its feet rather than be held down on the ground.

 

Why would these groups agree to work together and why have they not done it before?

 

The groups would agree to work with each other not out of altruism but because each feels frustrated at the individual failures of each particular alphabet soup, they would work together because for the first time there is a real chance of prying meles from power, they would work together temporarily because they feel that they are best placed to benefit from the fall out, and finally because for the first time these groups have a state patron that is paramount in any geurilla movement [Eriteria].

 

Do all these groups agree on the need to unsettle or even destroy Ethiopia? Aren't some of them Ethiopians themselves?

 

They agree on the need for a revolution and the usurption of power through the gun... does it not follow that this strategy will lead to the destabilisation of ethiopia fullfiling in the short and long term the needs of the strategy outlined by Xiin? Many darfuris are fighting for better representation and autonomy feeling that this will strengthen sudan but does the revolt not weaken sudan even as the dafuris proclaim their aims for a united democratic sudan?

 

Does Eritrea's quarrel with Ethiopia extend beyond fighting for anything more than some disputed borders?

 

Well how will eriteria maintain its gains among the disputed borders if it is to face a united Ethiopia every couple of years, indeed how can eriteria afford to maintain a cold war against any Ethiopian entity along the same lines?

If then eriteria recognizes the need for a weak and compliant Ethiopia more intrested in eritria as a friend than an enemy then logically, Xiins strategy and that of erteria coalesce how ever selfishly?

 

Do the ONLF boys want a union with Somalia?

 

The question is who asked them, it is on a open secret that the reason why the ONLF is limited in its actions is because of the unfortunate clan dynamics being played out in the ONLF and somalia galbeed in general, in the event that the ONLF canvasess for independence the 60% of the somali population the is not Og*den will not accept the assurances of an organisation that failed woefully in the early 1990's to create a broad based goverment in somalia galbeed? Obviously in the event of a fight the ONLF will be at the forefront, but in the event of a referndum brother those who think like you that Og*denia will be an independent nation are not referring to the reality on the ground, this is real politik brother not a cake walk.

 

Do Somaliland and Puntland consider it in their interests to sit by and watch these attempts at toppling Ethiopia?

 

Here you assume that somaliland and puntland are themselves merely spectators on the contrary, as was amply seen by the actions of the governing kleptrocracies in rounding up what even looked like an ICU supporter, these entities are not immune to the infection that is being outlined.

Also I think you err in assuming that both somaliland and puntland will do more than commit rendition to addis of suspects.

Finally in which way do you think that somaliland and punt land can bring real mass to the side of the Ethiopians, can punt land garrison and supply a police station in beledweyne? then how can they help Ethiopia except by providing a fifth column, an eventuality that has already occurred and will obviously be factored in any planning?

 

How and why will the rest of Somalia get itself involved in something they clearly consider to be a southern problem (through their inaction if not their words)?

 

Escalation, brother escalation, what has happened in Bossaso and Hargeisa is a modus operandi not a reality set in stone.

 

Think about it in terms of the terrorist's thinking a failure to understand a persons strategy is the supreme failure presaging actual failure on the ground.

When a terrorist bombs a hotel or military installation he does not do so out of the belief that this solitary action will bring about the collapse of the government or the failure of the U.S, what he is doing is shaking up the status quo that does not favor him.

The status quo as you have pointed out is clear but that this inactivity and univolvement would continue in the face of upheaval through out hte horn including with in somaliland, puntland and other regions is not to see what can change on the ground.

The failure then would not be to adopt xiin's ideas but to believe that insurrection should be limited to benadiir, even if this is the area where initially the most effectiveness will be had!

 

Is the goal really the resurrection of Somalia or is it the destruction of Ethiopia?

 

The question IS the resurrection of Somalia by allowing Somalis to reach their own conclusions, now what YOU HAVE TO ANSWERis if you beleive that this shall occur in a full and fair manner with Ethiopian interference, that is not merely the policy of meles, seyoum mesfin, or the T.P.L.F but the policy and strategy of the entire ethiopian elite, and out of fear of hyperbole I shall not attempt to claim since Abyssinia but at least since Selassie.

 

To follow on from the last question: what guarantees are there that those fighting will not obsesses with the idea of destroying Ethiopia (like what happened to the Barre government in the past) and they'll forget about saving Somalia (like what happened to the Barre government in the past)? In other words, when the Ethiopian elephant is brought down what is there to stop the vultures from returning to fight amongst themselves again?

 

Well if as you have wrongly charecterised xiin's strategy as merely the destruction and weakening of Ethiopia, will the scenario that you paint not be a fulfillment of xiin's strategy?

If ethiopia gets mired in a civil war who would be to blame proponents of xiin's strategy or the T.P.L.F's failure to grasp a chance in history for ethiopia to trully become an island of stability with the horn of africa rather than Against it.

Do not misconstrue the above statement to be an attempt to clothe my arguments with moral arguments because I personally could not care less.

 

Pps

Kindly note that I've got a bleeding lip from biting it so hard in order to stop myself from scoffing at the film reference in your last post. I expect some credit for this mighty effort. [big Grin]

again I apologize if it seemed that I was being sarcastic or trying to put you down, consider it as a musing rather than a description of your bold "Socratic" method.

 

Now ngonge I do not wish for you to feel like I am harrasing you, but I have elucidated and pondered and answered every single question.

 

But more questions with out any contribution on your part will lead me to two conclusions, first that the annoying child has finally won out in the battle for your psyche, or that at 4008 posts you still feel uncomfortable in taking up a position.

[Baashi]

Several glaring facts:

 

1. Tigre regime is sleeplessly watchful.

2. They’ve equated the uprising in the east to terrorism and got a nodding approval from Washington. They have the will, tools, and cover to commit genocide. Collective punishment, torture of the leading figures the junta knows the drill.

3. Amhara are not interested in destroying Ethiopia. Quite to the contrary they want to reverse the regional autonomy (very popular among historically oppressed ethnic groups) Tigre constituted. Right there you have a substantial divergence in direction, conflict of interests and goals.

4. Oromo’s Christian vs. Muslim division is not only ground for exploitation but a concern of ethnic war from within.

5. Somali vs. Oromo territorial dispute over Diredoba, Jigjiga, and Harrar frontier is an easy hot button waiting to be pushed and will be pushed in the event Tigre’s survival comes to fore.

6. Within Somalis, there are divisions - coalition of clans are satisfied with the killinka style autonomy all the while the ONLF wants to secede

 

All these facts (pitfalls) not withstanding, the opposition lacks basis to cook its plans. Somalia is the perfect ground for proxy activities - something ONLF lacks and Eritrea wishes to have. Ethiopia made its moves long time ago and has covered all the basis. Today it has three regimes to count on: SL, PL, and TFG. Absent of relatively strong and politically stable and independent Somali state destroying Ethiopia is a wishful thinking.

 

In my trade we define scope of work first and foremost before spilling ink on the board. Second we define and analyze hazards. The scope of work as it stands now is not manageable. The consequences of messing up eighty million nation is up there in monumental proportions. Anarchy, starvation, and foreign interference (biased toward Ethiopia) are some of the immediate consequences.

 

Out of frustration Xiin suggested to take the fight to the enemy. Why? He said they meaning the junta there are killing us out there in our own backyard. The reason he want to harm Addis regime is merely to distract them and have them get defensive. That way the multivariable equation is reduced one degree.

 

Now if one is willing to commit to such undertaking/challenge as to bringing down 80 million nation to its knees one ought to have what it takes to pull such stunt. Who will do it and how? How you overcome the obvious pitfalls? And what mitigating plans are in place to fend off the fallout?

 

Granted Ethiopia is composed of ethnic collections (nations) full of grievances and the tyrannical junta gives them every reason to rise up and change the status quo. The thing though is that each nation or ethnic group has its own divisions and the junta with all of the state’s trappings at its disposal knows how to exploit them. It is a two way street.

 

It escapes me why would one go that far and commit one’s self to a project with such scope and consequences and avoid ending conflict through reconciliation process however difficult that proves to be.

 

Again look before you leap. Get things right at home first before you day dream ways and means of pulling the rug under the Tigre regime.

[Liqaye]

Brother Baashi thank you for adding your two cents to this debate.

 

If you please I shall address each of the facts that you have raised in a meaningful manner.

 

1. Tigre regime is sleeplessly watchful.

 

Undoubtedly this is true, but no where in the strategy broadly outlined has this fact been ignored, this coalition will obviously be created and shall exist and operate under the watchful eye The consequences of messing up eighty million nation is up there in monumental proportions. Anarchy, starvation, and foreign interference (biased toward Ethiopia) are some of the immediate consequences. of the tigray regime, and within the strategy tactical attention should be given to this fact.

 

2. They’ve equated the uprising in the east to terrorism and got a nodding approval from Washington. They have the will, tools, and cover to commit genocide. Collective punishment, torture of the leading figures the junta knows the drill.

 

The first part of this fact is not quite right although the tigre regime did indeed attempt to paint the ONLF as a terrorist organization, it has failed spectacularly in this regard, this is due to several reasons first and foremost being the secular nature of the ONLF's demands and manifesto.

The Tigre government has failed to force the U.S to include the ONLF in list of terrorist organizations, and failed to secure a congress condemnation on the acts of the ONLF in Ethiopia.

 

3. Amhara are not interested in destroying Ethiopia. Quite to the contrary they want to reverse the regional autonomy (very popular among historically oppressed ethnic groups) Tigre constituted. Right there you have a substantial divergence in direction, conflict of interests and goals.

 

I had not implied that the amhara were for the disintegration of Ethiopia, indeed the A.R.S in Asmara is not parlaying with any amhara based group, and when solicited the rebel groups I have named are the ONLF, the OLF, and the SDMO of the southern nationalities region of Ethiopia.

The other element of your fact that you state namely that the amhara do not want the disintigration of ethiopia has a flip side as well, I think you can discern the reality that amhara claims to a united Ethiopia with them at the helm, would lead to a situation of strenuous opposition, in ignoring the aspirations of ethnic groups like the oromo to autonomy or succession would percipitate the destruction of their version of ethiopia, the same version that suborns the rights of the somali population at the present time.

 

4. Oromo’s Christian vs. Muslim division is not only ground for exploitation but a concern of ethnic war from within.

 

Yes, I do not understand the implication of this fact, the muslim christian divide is a clear and present danger in Ethiopia, that must be exploited as a corollary of xiin's strategy, although if you read over my posts again you will see that I have been carefull to state that any political association should present a secular face so as to avoid the pat assumptions of the western world in the face of anything islamic, this policy has succesfully been followed by the ONLF setting a clear precedent to be followed.

 

5. Somali vs. Oromo territorial dispute over Diredoba, Jigjiga, and Harrar frontier is an easy hot button waiting to be pushed and will be pushed in the event Tigre’s survival comes to fore.

 

No strategy occurs in isolation, this among other issues would be exploited by the desperation of the tigre government, but that would imply that the issue is on the table, the OLF is fighting for power or succession the ONLF for power or succession the SDMO for power or succession, the other alphabet soup organizations that might form it is safe to say would be fighting for power or succession.

There fore the initial and primary aim of all this organisation would be the toppling of the T.P.L.F and not any cartographic issues there of those would be solved after the first instance occurs.

But perhaps xiin's strategy was not clear, the issue was not the incorporation of Somalia galbeed into Somalia proper, but the fundamental destablisation of ethiopia at least initially.

 

6. Within Somalis, there are divisions - coalition of clans are satisfied with the killinka style autonomy all the while the ONLF wants to secede

 

Firstly the kilinka has no autonomy.

But the aim of this strategy is the collecting of like minded organizations into a front, since the ONLF is a natural partner, they shall be amember of the front, those that have neither the inclination, temerity or imagination to join the front would be outside it? admittedly the urge to clan division must be completely stymied, the fact is as has been epitomised by the history of all guerrilla movements no guerrilla movement starts as a broad based movement, but rather starts as a vanguard of committed indivduals ending up as a broad based movement.

 

Today it has three regimes to count on: SL, PL, and TFG. Absent of relatively strong and politically stable and independent Somali state destroying Ethiopia is a wishful thinking.

 

I have already outlined what I believe the contribution of somaliland, puntland and the TFG would be, what would be apropos of you is to explain what you believe would be their contribution not forgeting that I had already outlined that puntland and somaliland would just as well be targeted with in this strategic campaign, morally, financialy if not militarily.

 

The consequences of messing up eighty million nation is up there in monumental proportions. Anarchy, starvation, and foreign interference (biased toward Ethiopia) are some of the immediate consequences.

 

Arncachy is not the consequence of the strategy but rather the aim of xiin's strategy, and I believe I had already stated what I feel will be the extenet of foreign intervention in ethiopia, while clearly coignizant of the fact that it shall be pro T.P.L.F which if you have not noticed is not the same as being pro-ethiopia.

If you feel that my analysis of the fundamentals of foreign intervention is not right I invite you to state how.

 

Granted Ethiopia is composed of ethnic collections (nations) full of grievances and the tyrannical junta gives them every reason to rise up and change the status quo. The thing though is that each nation or ethnic group has its own divisions and the junta with all of the state’s trappings at its disposal knows how to exploit them. It is a two way street.

 

Yes, the T.P.L.F regime has its own STRATEGY for retarding and defeating any revolt, what you are suggesting is that consequently any planned revolt is bound to failure, unless you as I and xiin have outlined a STRATEGY of how a revolt could succeed.

 

It escapes me why would one go that far and commit one’s self to a project with such scope and consequences and avoid ending conflict through reconciliation process however difficult that proves to be.

Again look before you leap. Get things right at home first before you day dream ways and means of pulling the rug under the Tigre regime.

 

There have been several points raised by those who feel xiin's plans are unworkable, firstly that it is impossible and impractical.

Here it has been accepted to be possible, while explanations of how it can be practical has been given.

The other is that reconciliation is better than more destabilization.

 

My contention is simple and I would like your answer of my contention....

 

There shall be not nationalistic, participative, genuine, scincere and long lasting somali reconciliation on the ground with the interference of Ethiopia, either in the actual reconciliation process such as ethiopian manipulation of the embagathi process, or ethiopian inteference in somalia proper such as it sponsorship of the sodere group to first encircle and then extinguish the TNG goverment formed at Arta under the aegis of a country other than ethiopia. Under those conditions genuine reconciliation is not only difficult as you understated it baashi but IMPOSSIBLE.

 

The other accusation held against the strategy I have elucidated involves hoots of wishful thinking or day dreaming, my response is simple if the SOL admin insisted that only posters who made absolute practical sense and concrete plans for far reaching visions could post in the politics section, for a month, no one would post in the politics section for that month.

 

Unfortunately people do not realize that the ETHIOPIANS do not plan for the propping up of the TFG but the eventual incorporation of Somalia in to Ethiopia, I believe this deeply and that that reality is not clear for some is something I work towards changing.

[Liqaye]

P.S If you still beleive that tings are impossible I refer you to this extract:

 

"While it was arming the fighters on the ground, Eritrea was also busy playing host to a number of Somali dissidents, including deposed TFG parliamentary speaker Shaykh Sharif Hasan Adan; former government minister Husayn Mohamed Farah, a.k.a., "Aydiid Jr.," a renegade former U.S. Marine who is the son of the General Mohamed Farah Aydiid of Black Hawk Down infamy; Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmad, the fugitive chairman of the ICU; and Shaykh Yusuf Mohamed Siyad, a.k.a. "Indha'Adde," the defense chief during the ICU rule. Voice of America (VOA) correspondent Alisha Ryu has reported that Eritrean President Isaias convened a "unity meeting" in early June to form a coalition against the TFG and Ethiopia that would include not only the ICU and former members of the TFG, but also two Ethiopian rebel groups, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the ethnic-Somali ****** National Liberation Front (ONLF). Other sources report that the ICU's Shaykh Sharif will be the chairman of the yet-to-be-named front, while the ONLF's leader, Mohamed Omar Osman, will be its military commander.

 

Diplomatic, military, and intelligence officials confirm that, in addition to the four factions just mentioned, as part of his mad strategy of playing regional spoiler Eritrea's Isaias supports nearly a dozen other armed groups, mostly ethnic-based, with the aim of destabilizing his neighbors. Those targeted at undermining the Ethiopian government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi included:

 

* the Afar National Democratic Front (ANDF), which in March abducted five British citizens traveling in the northern Afar region (the Britons were subsequently released);

 

 

* the Ethiopian People's Patriotic Front (EPPF), an Amhara group which fought a pitched battle near Gondor with government forces after infiltrating from Sudan (23 rebels were killed, 18 were captured, and 112 surrendered voluntarily);

 

 

* the Gambella People's Liberation Force (GPLF), an group representing the Anuak minority of Ethiopia and Sudan that has been accused of attacking that has in the past attacked government and economic development workers as well as the occasional UN vehicle (to be fair, the lowland Anuak have admittedly been long marginalized by the highland Amhara and Tigrayan rulers of Ethiopia);

 

 

* the Southern Ethiopia Peoples' Front for Justice and Equality (SEFJE), which joined with the Tigray People's Democratic Front (below) to launch a March attack against the Ethiopian Army's 31st Division at Adi Geshu in the Karsa Humera district of western Tigray;

 

 

* and the Tigray People's Democratic Movement (TPDM), which claims to have killed 127 government soldiers in a May battle in the Tigrayan heartland in northwestern Ethiopia (a video clip, purportedly of the fight, was even posted on YouTube).

 

The strategy comes together.

[Fabregas]

lol, Badii Muqdisho iyo Kismaayo baa la maraya...and some people are calling for the overthrow or destabilisation of the Ethiopian state....

[Castro]

Voice of America (VOA) correspondent Alisha Ryu has reported that Eritrean President Isaias convened a "unity meeting" in early June to form a coalition against the TFG and Ethiopia that would include not only the ICU and former members of the TFG, but also two Ethiopian rebel groups, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the ethnic-Somali ****** National Liberation Front (ONLF). Other sources report that the ICU's Shaykh Sharif will be the chairman of the yet-to-be-named front, while the ONLF's leader, Mohamed Omar Osman, will be its military commander.

Xiin must have gotten a subscription to World Defense Review.

[NGONGE]

LIQYE,

 

I have thought long and hard about sharing my views here and attempting to present them in a positive spirit, but I just couldn’t bring myself to doing so.

 

I looked at the scenario you put forward and my head was almost turned by it. But, the more I thought about each point the more the questions kept on appearing! You see, when I ask these questions I don’t do so to halt your argument or to expose your weaknesses for my own delight. I do because they’re the questions that present themselves to me as I chomp on your contentions!

 

I could indeed write a whole essay on the subject and not include one single question in the entire thing. However, I would not know if I were on the right track unless I understood the positions of the person(s) I am debating with first. For that, I need to ask questions. If your argument is strong and watertight, I benefit! If it is weak and not well thought out, you (assuming you’re being sincere) benefit.

 

Now, since you cut me off from my lifeline and banned the asking of questions in this discussion (I’m of course grateful for the exceptions you made to my previous post), I am left with no other option but to speculate and share my own reasons why I believe this to be an impractical option (based on my understanding of what you are trying to flog here). Here goes:

 

It looks like I’ll have to bring my virtual weighing machine out again and see if this argument is solid enough to win the day.

 

 

Those opposing Ethiopia (in the context of our discussion) have some things going for them. For a start, as your last post shows, there are several such groups. They all fought their own fights in the past but are now being brought together by the Eritrean president who is no lover of Ethiopia himself. By fighting all these groups in all fronts, Ethiopia is naturally weakening itself, which presumably will mean it will have less time to interfere in Somali affairs (or so the argument goes)!

 

On the other hand, Ethiopia had had to deal with these opposition groups for a long time now (save for the ICU/Somalis in Asmara or whatever they’re called today). It acquitted itself well and is still (allegedly) the most powerful nation in the Horn. It has the support of the sole super power in the world and the indifference of all the other international big players (as is proved by the first’s actions and the latter’s inaction). It managed to entice various turncoats and their significant followings (not just in Somalia but in many of its own problematic regions). The only major and proper foe it has is Eritrea (a country of a mere five million people).

 

The above is the summarised position of affairs.

 

Now, I don’t believe that it is impossible to topple, destabilise or unsettle Ethiopia seeing that it has that many opposition groups and that these groups are fighting from a morally superior position. I merely believe it to be improbable, impractical and implausible.

 

Improbable because Ethiopia has managed to hold off the bulk of these groups for a long time now and seeing that they have not succeeded in rocking the administration of Zenawi, one can only conclude that Ethiopia has been winning, is winning and shall continue to win these skirmishes against its logistically, financially and politically weaker opposition.

 

Improbable because the coming together of these groups is not some sort of spontaneous revolution that would take Ethiopia by surprise! In fact, it is not even an open secret, ergo it allows Ethiopia the time to formulate its own plans to repulse any future attempts to destabilise it.

 

 

Impractical, because it assumes that all these groups will be bosom buddies and see this thing through! If one looks at the case of the ICU and how it fell out with the Shabab because of ideological differences, even though they both have the same goal of ejecting Ethiopia from Somalia, would it be wrong to assume that similar cracks may also appear in the ranks of all the other opposition groups (if they have not already)!

 

Still, my biggest concern here is in the huge leap that Xiin makes when he suggests that only by weakening Ethiopia will Somalia be able to finally sort itself out. His argument of course (and possibly rightly) is based on the opinion (or rather unproven fact) that Ethiopia is the driving force behind the Somali conflict. This concerns me because it does not take into account the centuries old doubt, mistrust and uncertainty that exists between Somalis themselves. It also underestimates the level of greed, selfishness and egotism that is inherent in most the current Somali leaders and agenda setters (including the ICU). Xiin’s (and your) analysis, at first glance, succeeds in accentuating the positive and underplaying the negative, which is not a problem if this was merely some sort of feel-good discussion. But, it is not, is it? It is an actual analysis (on your part at least, if not Xiin’s) of the way forward for Somalis!

 

Baashe on the other hand is saying ‘let us sit down and talk’! His too is a wish but it does not come across as an impossible wish. You see when people refuse to talk, one wonders what is it they worry they might lose by sitting down and talking. Various Somali groups have had meetings and talks in the past seventeen years (in several African Capitals). The talks hardly ever made much of a difference but they also (for the most part) hardly resulted in any substantial losses for any of the participants.

 

Now you argue that such talks can NOT take place whilst the Ethiopian occupier is casting its ugly shadow on proceedings. But other than reasons of pride, face or ego I really can’t see what difference the presence of Ethiopia would make to talks that aim to result in a cessation of hostilities between Somalis themselves. It’s my turn to give a historical reference: Lebanon! That country suffered from a bloody and (seemingly) unsolvable civil war for years. It had factions, militias and warlords who were much more deadly and strategically superior to any of the humdrum thugs Somalia produced. They had several ICU’s (i.e. religious groups: Sunni, Shia, Muslim, Drooz and TWO Christian factions)! They were invaded by two neighbouring countries (Syria and Israel) and occupied for years. But despite their glaring differences, they sat and talked! Not did they only talk, they agreed on peace. Yet, the country is still plagued by differences, it still has many turncoats loyal to either Syria or Israel and even one warlord (the Hezbollah leader) still can freely run his own army in a supposedly independent and sovereign country!

 

Here comes my point now: I wager anyone to argue that Somalia is in a better position to that of Lebanon. The Lebanese still hate and mistrust each other but all sides have made it clear that the last thing they want or need is another war amongst themselves. They always seem to choose compromise over war. The Somalis don’t have such goals. It is not peace they want; it is peace on their own terms. When you give me such a farfetched plan of action whilst knowing how finicky and difficult Somalis can be are you surprised that I would consider it an impractical dream?

 

One can’t be positive in the face of nonsense, saaxib. The idea itself is a dream. A possible dream, a realistic one too but, more importantly, it’s one that is impractical today. Now sitting down and talking on the other hand.......

 

 

The other accusation held against the strategy I have elucidated involves hoots of wishful thinking or day dreaming, my response is simple if the SOL admin insisted that only posters who made absolute practical sense and concrete plans for far reaching visions could post in the politics section, for a month, no one would post in the politics section for that month.

The admin does not have to insist (the admin is a dreamer himself by the way). I am not sure if you got the hang of the idea of discussion, saaxib. It may be upsetting when people mock fanciful ideas or suggestions but it’s the way of the world, saaxib.

 

Cheer up and sing with me:

 

They all laughed at Christopher Columbus when he said the world was round

They all laughed when Edison recorded sound

They all laughed at Wilbur and his brother when they said that man could fly

They told Marconi wireless was a phony, it's the same old cry

They laughed at me wanting you, said I was reaching for the moon

But oh, you came through, now they'll have to change their tune

They all said we never could be happy, they laughed at us and how!

But ho, ho, ho! Who's got the last laugh now?

[Liqaye]

I shall respond in due time, as for your inability dear ngonge to respond in a positive or meaningfull manner no apology is needed for one who is aware of that particular shortcoming of yours.

[xiinfaniin]

Maashaa Allaah what a great discussion!

 

Thank you Liqaye for offering the intellectual gown my initial thoughts of destabilizing Ethiopia needed! I don’t, at the moment, have the time needed to participate in this thread in a meaningful manner, as I would like. But suffice to say that everyone in this discussion in one way or another acknowledged that Ethiopia in the context of the Somali civil war is a major problem that needs overcoming. Of course ideas as to how to tackle this problem differ, and that’s not bad at all! I am really impressed by how genuinely ideas are put forth, issues weighed in, and alternatives to this ambitious strategy are suggested and considered.

 

As I said before I do agree with Baashi on the political and the moral necessity of reconciling Somalis. There are no guarantees that it will work or produce any tangible results. But I don’t see any harm in trying it as long the agenda of such talks encompasses all the hot button issues, including the question of Ethiopia’s political influence and military intervention. If the resistance does not have such diplomatic wing to talk to Somalis whose current political tendency is the cause of Ethiopian triumph over us, I do believe it’s missing one of the biggest ingredient of success for if they only fight and fight to defeat Ethiopia in Xamar without having broad strategy (and a peaceful one at that) to deal with other Somalis the dabodhilifs if you will then it’s apparent to me resistance’s wins would not transcend beyond the small victories they are fated to be!

Reconciling Somalis or the majority of them should be one of the milestones in the struggle to remove this extensional threat that Ethiopia in its current form and strategy represents. There is nothing to lose in talking to other Somalis. Period. Those who are currently in the Ethiopian column politically should be the one refusing this offer, and not the resistance leaders.

 

Any meaningful strategy whose aim is to revive the Somali republic must consider how to deal with Ethiopia. In my mind there two options out there for us to consider. One option would be to listen to Ethiopia’s concerns, both economic and political concerns, and a give a serious consideration to reasonably address them in a manner that alleviates her fears of us. And that’s to say to our selves lets not beat around the bush here and face the harsh reality that’s before us, lets give Ethiopia what it wants and desires. Give up the claim on the Somali region in Ethiopia. Sign a peace pact with Ethiopia. Provide her an easy access to our harbors and ports. And accept the junior role in the horn affairs such arrangements entail. In my mind we still have too viable a economic and intellectual resource, still able to muster regional and global alliances, and have a non-dying nationalistic and religious surge to build on to accept such a humiliating position as it regards our relationship with Ethiopia.

 

The second option is to be creative in defeating Ethiopia and take advantage of its ethnic composition. There are set of facts on the ground that could help us to realize that goal as Liqaye aptly enumerated. But adopting this strategy starts with the acknowledgment that the fuel of our civil war is the Ethiopia’s negative influence on our affairs. We must see our people as victims of a grand scheme orchestrated by an incompetent leadership that is particularly bred to collaborate with Ethiopia in exacerbating our differences to deepen our conflict. If we really see it that way then our anger would be directed not at clan fulaan or dabodhilif fulaan but at the real perpetrators, namely Ethiopia!

 

Excuse my digression yaa Jamacaah! Other than clarifying my positon on the peace talks I am with Liqaye on this.

[xiinfaniin]

NG wrote:

Still, my biggest concern here is in the huge leap that Xiin makes when he suggests that only by weakening Ethiopia will Somalia be able to finally sort itself out. His argument of course (and possibly rightly) is based on the opinion (or rather unproven fact) that Ethiopia is the driving force behind the Somali conflict. This concerns me because it does not take into account the centuries old doubt, mistrust and uncertainty that exists between Somalis themselves. It also underestimates the level of greed, selfishness and egotism that is inherent in most the current Somali leaders and agenda setters (including the ICU). Xiin’s (and your) analysis, at first glance, succeeds in accentuating the positive and underplaying the negative, which is not a problem if this was merely some sort of feel-good discussion. But, it is not, is it? It is an actual analysis (on your part at least, if not Xiin’s) of the way forward for Somalis!

^^One sees smoke and infers fire saaxiib! Asserting that Ethiopia is the driving force behind our civil wars does not imply that there are no animosity between the Somali people for the enemy to cultivate or historical grievances to build onto! Somali people since time immemorial have been fighting over (amongst many) grazing rights, access to wells and camels. After some of them gained impendence from European imperialists Somalis, as humans often do quite naturally, disagreed over mundane political and economic matters, and some segments of them even revolted against their countries highest authority. When the Somali republic prematurely collapsed, they killed each other and had a very torturous civil war between them! The long civil war, which still continues mind you, had sewed a deep mistrust between them! It is significant, and one can’t sensibly neglect it. There are Somalilanders who are naturally suspicious any thing southern, and are determined to resist any union with the south as they knew it. There are Puntlanders who remember the atrocities committed against their fellow clansmen and women when General Aydids’ usc captured Xamar, and whose elites are determined to keep their historical influence on Somali politics by any means. You have the people of Bay and Bakool who reasonably concluded absence of a just and fair government, and with armed Somalis left alone and to their own devices, their survival is at sake, and consequently accepted Ethiopia as a necessary measure to preserve their rights in a chaos south! And then you have the Benadir people whose region epitomized the injustices, the instability, and all the qualities of civil war! As you can imagine their grievance is real and deep! I know all of that saaxiib! But so does Ethiopia! Unfortunately! And it seems to me Ethiopia is putting more efforts and energy to get a permanent foothold in Somali affairs to the degree where it would be impossible for Somalis to even talk to each let alone resolve their problems.

 

Let me give you an example, and you might have seen me cite this before! Take the Somaliland and Puntland political and territorial quarrel. As you know each entity has open channels with Ethiopia. Each boasts about the business trips their leaders take to secure this economic pact or that military and security understanding with Ethiopia. Despite the history, the religion, the culture, the language, and the land they share none of these entities leaders ever met, at least publicly. No leaders from SL ever traveled to PL and vise versa! Why these seemingly intelligent people cant recognize the obvious fact that they could indeed talk to each other and resolve their matters in a brotherly manner without bringing Ethiopia into the picture? Why is that do you reckon yaa NGONGE?

 

I don’t think one can explain this in light of animosity between Puntland and Somaliland. There is a far greater animosity between Ethiopia and Somalis. Apparently Ethiopia has a grip on these entities! There are other examples where you can easily and clearly see that Ethiopia’s hand in Somalia is deep and negative. To address it and find ways to remove her influence from the Somali affairs is a must, I believe. Even those Somalis in those entities that are in Ethiopia’s not-so-indirect captivity don’t know why things are the way they are. And it reminds me the story about a generation of monkeys borne in a life of captivity, told by a manager of mine in a bid to describe the inherent problems that come with legacy systems and the users that only know how to use a particular function but not why! They were particularly obedient (these monkeys were) to the rules of the monkey catcher that held them in confinement for many years. The irony of their dimmed intelligence was made manifest to any observer by their determined abstinence from climbing up [edited] ladders! Why, you may wonder, wouldn’t a monkey climb up a ladder when given the opportunity to do so! From a pure animalistic instinct, wouldn’t that itself represent an opportunity for escape?

 

 

This is because, explains the monkey catcher, the first monkey caught was put through a harsh process to forgo any opportunity for escape, especially when the means is a ladder. Whenever it tries to climb up the ladder that’s put before him, a bone freezing, cold water would be poured on it (the monkey), and the flow of the cold discharge would force monkey to retreat to a safe corner in its confined cage! This would be repeated any time a monkey tries to escape and climb up the ladder! And so the wild monkey adapted to the rules of his catcher, and learnt to live with it. Any subsequent monkey that gets caught by the monkey catcher would be put through the same process to restrain it from escaping, climbing up the ladder. The funny thing is, overtime, these monkeys become so conscious about ladders, whenever one of their offspring tries to escape or even out of a mere playfulness attempts to climb up the ladder, they would snatch it right away before the cold water even start to pour out. Grapping to prevent other monkeys from climbing up the ladder become the default reaction among later generation monkeys, and as the old generations died away, the reason of doing it was no longer in the domain of these monkeys’ knowledge for they never had the opportunity to even see the consequence of climbing up the ladder! No monkey in this generation had ever tasted the numbness of the cold water, or weighty thrust of its velocity, that would’ve poured on it had it disobeyed catcher’s rules and gone out to climb up the ladder! Yet the catcher has the luxury of having his orders met without exacting any punishments or spelling out the consequences if they are not met! The monkeys are amazingly bred into a culture of conformity to the norms as they come to know them! You see, that’s how things are! That was how other monkeys, the older ones, always did it! And apparently, this is how things will be absence of any reasoning as to why they should be that way!

 

Analogous to that short story is the Somali politician’s relationship with Ethiopia! As you can see I am proposing not only can these monkeys break the rules and climb up the damn ladder but they can indeed also kill the catcher and escape singing victory songs… .

[NGONGE]

^^ So it was monkey business after all?

I am not disagreeing with you on the whole. I just feel that we're choosing to look at the problem from different angles (whilst acknowledging the importance of each other's stances of course). I am convinced that, in time, I'll bring you to my side of the fence. I wonder if this belief makes me an optimistic cynic? I bet some are thinking "THAT'S AN OXYMORON"! Many others will probably nod in agreement but only with the word that followed Oxy!

 

Anyway, it's one in the morning and I don't feel like getting too serious just yet. Bonne nuit.

[xiinfaniin]

lol@the word that followed Oxy!

 

Waa markaad soo toosto hadaba xaaji!

 

Castro wrote:

 

Xiin must have gotten a subscription to World Defense Review

Waryee Castro you should credit Don Bros Coffee instead .

 

actually i have not seen this report. I am familiar with its author though, and i despise him very much!

[NASSIR]

Any meaningful strategy whose aim is to revive the Somali republic must consider how to deal with Ethiopia. In my mind there two options out there for us to consider. One option would be to listen to Ethiopia’s concerns, both economic and political concerns, and a give a serious consideration to reasonably address them in a manner that alleviates her fears of us. And that’s to say to our selves lets not beat around the bush here and face the harsh reality that’s before us, lets give Ethiopia what it wants and desires. Give up the claim on the Somali region in Ethiopia. Sign a peace pact with Ethiopia. Provide her an easy access to our harbors and ports. And accept the junior role in the horn affairs such arrangements entail. In my mind we still have too viable a economic and intellectual resource, still able to muster regional and global alliances, and have a non-dying nationalistic and religious surge to build on to accept such a humiliating position as it regards our relationship with Ethiopia.

I agree with this option in terms of dealing with this geo-political issues and finding practical solutions. This is the same strategy the TFG seeks to bring Somalia back to its then normality. It also sees internal obstacles on her way. We can follow the same model as the Nile Basin Countries. For instance, the Blue Nile originates from Ethiopia and 98% of Egypt's water resources comes from the Nile River. Ethiopia is thus subject to the 1929 Naile Basin Treaty and the revised 1959 , which effectively ensures Egypt's right to its access and that neither Sudan nor Ethiopia can reduce the volume of this water. The effect of this politically is still visible and profound, but countries have still pursued a resolution policies that would benefit them.

 

So Xiin, your first option is viable and we should work out other options to mitigate our regional crisis. Ethiopia still suffers at the hands of both Sudan and Egypt's dominance over the water resources. Although these issues still stand and might trigger a major conflict in the region, riparian states periodically hold conferences to discuss possible solutions for the effective and fair distribution of the water resources.