Ethiopia, Eritrea may go to war 'in weeks'

[Faarax-Brawn]

Originally posted by AYOUB:

quote:

Originally posted by Faarax-Brawn:

War & victory over Ethiopia is the answer to a stable Somalia. To see a vibrant,strong and viable Somali state,then we must defeat(or distablize),the country that is solely responsible for our woes.

That was

Gen. Barre's intent when he armed several anti Mengistu movements including Meles' TPLF. I think it is fair to say Gen. Barre's investments were not a total success. What are guarantees your Ethio chickens won't come "home" to roost in the future?

Well,that actually did work somewhat. Mengistu was defeated & disposed.(Right around the time of the collapse of Siads govt). Technically speaking,had the Somali republic been intact,well at least if Gen.Barre was in power,then we had a chance of actually manipulating Meles's Ethiopia,NO?

 

Thats all water under the bridge now, the way forward is to counter Ethiopia's powers. What to do? I am willing to hear other suggestions. Do you fight like a man ? Plan a come back some decades later? or Just throw yours hands up in the air(& wave them like you dont care ) and let the Ethiopians reign supreme?

 

You gotta have a plan you know, what do you say yaa Ayoub?

[xiinfaniin]

Liqaye, you are an old soul indeed! There is ideological, territorial, historic, and economic quarrel between Ethiopia and us! Our interests are diametrically opposed! That much is clear. What is not so clear however is if our people the Somalis or the privileged educated few or even the religious elites for that matter will ever think beyond the qurac trees, see Ethiopia and the threat she posses, forget about their differences, and come up with an strategy to defeat it! Wars in Somalia will only strengthen Ethiopia’s hand. We need to think over this one seriously. I will come back latter IA.

 

Ayoubow, do you see the Ethiopia's existential threat to us somalis or you think it’s a southern problem adeer !

[Xudeedi]

Originally posted by Baashi:

Taa xal uma hayo boowe. Waxan diidanahay qoloda jifada hoose ah ee tidhi is miidaamin baan Somalia ku xoreyneynaa. Waxaan kaloo diidanahay kuwa buka ee eeda reer gaara huwiyay oo ka weecweecanaya halka xaalku ka qurunsan yahay.

 

Waa qalad weyn in reer gaar ah eeda dusha laga saaro. Waxa Somali kala diley waa waxaas oo miiran iyagoo og dhabta iyo xaqiiqda loo kala qaybsan yahey.

[NGONGE]

Laqiye,

 

Point taken though I can't promise that I could stop myself at times.

[AYOUB]

^^#4000!

 

Faarax Brawn

The long term objective should be peace in the Horn of Africa not hostilities. Some of the views expressed here can alienate many including the staunchest anti-Meles Ethiopians out there. Not all Ethiopians (especially the millions and millions of Muslims) are responsible for what's happening in Somalia. I know Meles' boys have to be kicked out of all occupied lands, but will there an end to the hostility after that? How? If and when Somalis make peace within themselves they'll be safe. (Not the traitorous Mbagathi kind of peace.) Somalis will be safer if they follow this by making peace with the neighbouring people.

 

Xiin

Care to remind me who the jihaad down south is being waged against.

[Castro]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

There is ideological, territorial, historic, and economic quarrel between Ethiopia and us! Our interests are diametrically opposed! That much is clear. What is not so clear however is if our people the Somalis or the privileged educated few or even the religious elites for that matter will ever think beyond the qurac trees, see Ethiopia and the threat she posses, forget about their differences, and come up with an strategy to defeat it! Wars in Somalia will only strengthen Ethiopia’s hand. We need to think over this one seriously. I will come back latter IA.

While you're away, chew on this: how can a failed state subvert a non-failed state?

 

The United States, arguably the mightiest nation of the 20th century and the most prolific subverter of other states has often failed in its goal only to invade those nations outright. Clearly, we are decades away from invading Ethiopia but even subversion requires meticulous planning, large funds, and at the very least an agreement among those who engage in the subversion.

 

It may be easier to climb mount Everest barefoot.

[Abwaan]

I saw some somalia guys discussing this in a cafe the other day. One TFG supporter was saying "No there won't no war and dadkaasna isku baabi'i maayaan oo waa heshiinayaan" It looked to me as if that is what he was hoping for. What suprised me was as I listened to his debate with those guys he was defending Ethiopia's intervention to Somali business and civilian lives lost in Somalia due to this. Marka waxaa ii muuqatay in ninkaan odayga ah uu dhib ku hayo dagaalka Itoobiya ay Eriteriya la gelayso balse shacab Soomaaliyeed oo xasuuq lagu hayana uu jideynayo oo aysan xaggiisa wax dhib ah ku hayn.

[Liqaye]

Castro while xiin is formulating his ideas I would like for you to get a clearer grasp of somethings you have raised.

Ethiopia is a failed state, undoubtedly in no ways is it any where near the level of Somalia, it still has a veneer of statehood and governmental control epitomised by the 200,000 man conscript army fodder it maintains, but the state of failure of Ethiopia is even more insidious for that very reason.

The T.P.L.F regime has on a constant basis neglected the other arms of government that make a country, og*denia is lawless, the southern peoples region is almost lawless, oromia is restive and the amhara plot and plan for their glorious new reich after the tigrayan intergenum is overcome.

Amidst the economic problems of feeding 70 m people the T.P.L.F regime has created a mafia like organization the commands almost the ENTIRE economy, in times of politicial disturbance the T.P.L.F has choosen to underpin the authority of the state solely on military might.

Ethiopia is not the colossus some people erroneously think it is, fundamentally the Ethiopian elite realize this and are actively distabilising their neighbors before the same sort of attention is afforded to them!

 

you also raise the issue of american subversion and the failures it often meets in the process, a proper reading of the history of american subversion will lead you to understand that the american often failed where they attempt to create scenarios and divisions that do not exist. Where there perfidy has followed and widened the fissures that were already there there subversive tactics almost always worked. You can say that America succeds when they sponsor an Idea whose time has come.

 

In ethiopia the room for subversion is immense because the issues are already there and T.P.L.F arrogance has allowed them to fester for many years, poverty, discrimination, economic selectivism and genocidal actions visited upon swathes of the populace, all occuring within the backdrop of truly zero sum game politics, and the lack of any democratic institutions or history,

[Ethiopia has never ever been a democracy and it is not even a part of the culture, an element of traditional guurti consultation or figurehead garaads, ugaases or suldaans is missing]means the opportunity for subversion and strategy is there.

 

But I know that any individual reading my words might think that Ethiopia is more powerful and a fact is a fact.

This only shows that a proper understanding of power is lacking, we all know about Gandhi and his concept of moral power, it worked in India and in south africa, this is a power that did not have the benefit of guns tanks or fighter jets but in the end it won.

We might know the dictum of guerrilla movements articulated by mao where power was the support of the populace and not the number of guns and tanks possessed leading to the counter intuitive maxim of Kissinger where he said guerrilla movements seldom win wars but governments always lose them, through attrition or insurrection entire nations with unifying ethos and population homogeneity have changed hands due this very truism.

Undoubtedly Ethiopia has the military might as well as the financial wherewithal while somalia is in chaos.

But this Chaos is a source of power, Somalia's population have nothing to lose, Mogadishu is in rubble and has been bombed in to the stone age, they have nothing to lose, while the chaos in Somalia has finally drawn in uniformed Ethiopian troops, the stranglehold of the T.P.L.F on Ethiopia has already become slightly tenuous the O.L.F and the O.N.L.F have grasped this reality the S.D.M.O is coming around to it, while in Asmara there are considerable elements of the A.R.S who insist that the T.F.G should not be the target of violence and subversion but Ethiopia it self, for the first time the O.L.F, O.N.L.F, the S.D.M.O and other liberation groups are sitting down around the table to reach some sort of modus operandi within Ethiopia.

A war with Eriteria would speed up the process.

As for finances, you would be surprised how many countries would be willing to bank roll this adventure.

 

Ayoub Said:

 

Faarax Brawn

The long term objective should be peace in the Horn of Africa not hostilities. Some of the views expressed here can alienate many including the staunchest anti-Meles Ethiopians out there. Not all Ethiopians (especially the millions and millions of Muslims) are responsible for what's happening in Somalia. I know Meles' boys have to be kicked out of all occupied lands, but will there an end to the hostility after that? How? If and when Somalis make peace within themselves they'll be safe. (Not the traitorous Mbagathi kind of peace.) Somalis will be safer if they follow this by making peace with the neighbouring people.

This strategy would not alienate Ethiopians, the Oromos would be free the declare independence, autonomy, or create another junta ala the T.P.L.F, the southern nationalities would have the power they crave for, somalia galbeed would return to the motherland, the only malcontents would be the amhara tigray duopoly, and they brother wish, plan and strategize for domination, a failure to recognize this fact frightens me more than any of their machinations brother.

You say that if Somalis make peace between themselves they will be safe undoubtedly that is true, destablising Ethiopia I do not suggest as an alternative for genuine inter-somali reconciliation, but I merely make clear that with ethiopia in the picture that shallNever happen.

[Liqaye]

D/P

[Castro]

You say that if Somalis make peace between themselves they will be safe undoubtedly that is true, destablising Ethiopia I do not suggest as an alternative for genuine inter-somali reconciliation, but I merely make clear that with ethiopia in the picture that shallNever happen.

That is the central argument of the Asmara group (and mine). I didn't know you were a fan.

 

Ok, so I didn't have the clarity of mind to see Ethiopia for what it is: a mole hill not a mountain. Is the ARS capable of doing this? ONLF? OLF? All of them combined?

 

Here's the $64,000 question: how?

 

Originally posted by NGONGE:

Practical solutions, my dear Castro, practical solutions.

 

Ps

I know Xiin was only presenting a hypothetical scenario;

Still think it's impractical?

[Liqaye]

Castro said:

 

that is the central argument of the Asmara group (and mine). I didn't know you were a fan. [big Grin]

 

Allah, the smugness

 

Brother read through my posts for as far back as you can get them, on the failure of the I.C.U's strategy and the T.F.G's caputure of mogadishu I thought that even the most malevolent individuals would start about building up even the modicum of an administration even a kleptrocracy to keep them in power for ever.

Unfortunately even this fundamental human drive for domination escapes the cabal in baidoa that fails in every thing.

But I had forseen that with out a nation wide mandate and a nation wide view of this struggle the insurgency would be confined to the benadiir hinterland, but I feel this is a failure of tactics rather than the prescient insight baashi seems to think it is.

My argument was to subvert the T.F.G from the inside but a husk such as this dowlaad isku sheeg has no inside and should just be toppled over.

The alliance of the A.R.S, O.L.F, O.N.L.F, S.D.M.O and islamic groupings need not win the war Castro, but their active coordination with in ethiopia would provide a counter point that will make ethiopian meddling in somalia to expensive in terms of finances manpower and prestige.

With in Ethiopia the T.P.L.F would revert to the heavy handed genocidal tendencies that it has always used to maintain its strangle hold on power, this will only further motivate the disenchanted masses to revolt, in 1988 the S.N.M did the same exact thing it knew that militarily it simply could not hold the metroplis' of the north, but correctly identifying the tendencies of the Barre regime to mass punishment, its actions precipitated the short and murderous actions of the Barre regime in the long run the population was radicalized in to supporting the S.N.M turning men in to "mujahidin" where before that they were mere dead-enders.

The same reality is all that needs to play out in Ethiopia and the end result if well managed will be the same!

 

Remember the aim is not to win the battles but the over all strategic war.

[NGONGE]

Originally posted by Castro:

quote:

---

Originally posted by NGONGE:

Practical solutions, my dear Castro, practical solutions.

 

Ps

I know Xiin was only presenting a hypothetical scenario;

Still think it's impractical?

Yes. What Xiin did was post a wish list of things he hoped would happen. Liqye followed it through with a very articulate and detailed explanation (though somewhat erroneous) on how he thinks this will be achieved. Still, sift through the nice turns of phrases, historical lessons and supposed cracks in Ethiopian politics and you'll find that there is really little substance there. Don't let me put you off with my customary sneering though. The ideas presented here are original and the analysis is tempting. Yet, whilst Liqye easily brushes aside Baashe's lets talk contention, he himself stands guilty of ignoring the million and one reasons that make this dreamy discussion of yours impractical. Tell you what, how about we make a list of known FACTS and hoped for WISHES first! Separate the two, agree on them and then let us see if your position and ideas are tenable.

 

I am trying to take this whole discussion as earnestly as my temperament would allow. I hope we don't go down the route of arguing that black is white and white is black; because if we did, I'll only adopt a Socratic posture and keep asking you 'and then? And then? And then?' You already know Liqye does not like that.

[Liqaye]

Waar niyoow ngonge dont allow my ripeness to become a source of friction, things happened ages ago.

 

Ngonge allow me to ask ever so nicely for us to change the focus for a moment I would like to do something with you and that is to force you off the negative which regardless of your new parameters of your post this thread will generate to the very thing you fear.

It is always easier to argue from the negative side--criticizing other people's actions, dissecting their motives, etc. And that is why most people will opt for this. If they had to describe a positive vision of what they want in the world, or how they would accomplish a particular task, this would open them up to all kinds of attacks and criticisms. It takes effort and thought to establish a positive position. It takes less effort to work on what other people have done, and poke endless holes. It also makes you look tough and insightful, because people delight in hearing someone tear an idea apart, which is a major reason why most of what passes for discussion in SOL is merely shouting matches.

Facing these negative-mongers in a debate or argument is infuriating. They can come at you from all angles. Hit you with sarcasm and snide comments, weave all kinds of abstractions that can make you look bad. If you lower yourself to their position, you end up like a boxer throwing punches into thin air. These opponents give you nothing to hit.

Recently, I watched Michael Moore face off with a Dr. Gupta on CNN concerning the veracity of the statistics in his new film Sicko. It was an infuriating argument from Doctor Gupta. He was merely quibbling with a few figures. The implication was--we cannot trust this movie because Moore fudged some statistics; the director has an agenda and therefore he does not present a rational argument. Gupta met Moore's reasonable defenses with little snide comments and looks that implied the director is not forthright. This is very common with journalists who make a profession out of finding little things to attack, making it look like they are in the Woodward/Bernstein tradition of uncovering...something. Anything.

 

So brother Ngonge how about you take up a positive position, on why this mutual lovefest is impractical then Myself and others can respond.

[Castro]

The alliance of the A.R.S, O.L.F, O.N.L.F, S.D.M.O and islamic groupings need not win the war Castro, but their active coordination with in ethiopia would provide a counter point that will make ethiopian meddling in somalia to expensive in terms of finances manpower and prestige.

With in Ethiopia the T.P.L.F would revert to the heavy handed genocidal tendencies that it has always used to maintain its strangle hold on power, this will only further motivate the disenchanted masses to revolt, in 1988 the S.N.M did the same exact thing it knew that militarily it simply could not hold the metroplis' of the north, but correctly identifying the tendencies of the Barre regime to mass punishment, its actions precipitated the short and murderous actions of the Barre regime in the long run the population was radicalized in to supporting the S.N.M turning men in to "mujahidin" where before that they were mere dead-enders.

You forget about the West and their interests. Propping up failed, genocidal regimes is their favorite pass time. How will this all play out with alphabet soup of competing interests we have here?

 

NGONGE, I would start with Socod Badne's list (in some other thread) concerning Ethiopia v. Eriteria as a list of facts.

[Liqaye]

Yes Castro the west is a variable in the equation but it is not an unknown variable, the history and pattern of western interference is predictable and sequential.

 

Initially as the internal insurgency takes hold the west will choose to back the T.P.L.F regime, not only is this junta ruthless it is media friendly and know how to lobby in a sophisticated manner.

But one cannot teach an old dog new tricks especially when the history of the old dog is as repetitive as that of Ethiopia, the T.P.L.F will punish the populace, the community, the region rather than carry out a targeted war COIN [counter insurgency] campaign, if any one doubts this look at the response of the T.P.L.F in oga*denia recently.

Indeed the effort to blockade an entire region was unsuccessful in Oga@denia, poor, backward region on Ethiopia's backyard, it would work much less in the oromo highlands or in gurage.

As the response of the government becomes more and more heavy handed, the moral authority of western involvement starts falling away assorted do - gooders, bored congressmen, media agencies with in search of the next darfur as that particular conflict die-down harp on the injustices and realities of T.P.L.F interaction with the west.

 

As the cacophony of criticism becomes to loud and direct threats are made against the life blood of all tyrannies, namely aid and donor money, the government will attempt to negotiate its way out of the impasse, make the concessions that become more concessions, that eventually confer legitimacy to the rebel movement disproportionate to its numbers or actual ability.

In the end the rot would have reached terminal stage as negotiation means one thing no despotism negotiates its self out of power.

 

At this stage Ethiopian involvement in Somalia has already started to become haphazard, but overt in other ways such as the recognition of somaliland , but this will fundamentally merely create another friendly entity in the horn, as the need for the extreme fellatio the leadership of somaliland performs on all things ethiopian will no longer exist, and in the end the population of somaliland would be behind the struggles of their brothers in the rest of somali inhabited lands.

 

But for the broad strokes I have outlined in the above post the rebel movement has to focus on some things to succeed, the foremost to try as much as possible to show a secular face, as well as atleast initially focus on the toppling of the goverment and not the dismemberment of the ethiopian nation.

 

In the full on dependence on the west is the sign of an extremely weak position of the government.