Ethiopia, Eritrea may go to war 'in weeks'

[Baashi]

Taa xal uma hayo boowe. Waxan diidanahay qoloda jifada hoose ah ee tidhi is miidaamin baan Somalia ku xoreyneynaa. Waxaan kaloo diidanahay kuwa buka ee eeda reer gaara huwiyay oo ka weecweecanaya halka xaalku ka qurunsan yahay.

 

War heedhe innagu isku bog beynu akhrinaa malaha. Haatan waxan ku leeyahay shidada inta la iska daayo sidii dirrinta la isugu imaan lahaa ha la doon doono. Inta reerayoowga kale ee BBCda dhegaysanyaa bal qoloda Benadir ku adkaatay jeego jeegona u hurdaan hadde in Xabashku saaxibadii guusha u hoyinayo ma war baa ka taagan.

 

Widaay annigu reer hoose oo la gumaadayo oo dubuhu si gaar ah ugu dhacayo baan arkaa. Waxan kaloo arkaa ciyaalka xaafada oo leh sidaa ku wada oo laateega ku kabanaya qurbaha oo biidh kale aan u tarayn. War toloow colka jooja oo heshiiska iyo nabada adaa ku nool ee taa ha la raadiyo uun baan leeyahay.

 

Allow ma irri!

 

PS: Awoowe qaansada ma adaa ku dhaca oo jebin kara? Ma waxaad wadaa Dhagoolkii yiri sac baa seeri ka ciyay! Dhagaheedba ma leh ee muu innaka daayo weeye warku.

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by Faarax-Brawn:

War & victory over Ethiopia is the answer to a stable Somalia. To see a vibrant,strong and viable Somali state,then we must defeat(or distablize),the country that is solely responsible for our woes.

 

The thing is,co existing peacefully with a

stronger

Ethiopia wont work; We have been at war for centuries. Either we accept to be dominated(which is not a Somali trait) or we must have a have a long term vision to be stronger than Ethiopia. If that means starting a war in Ethiopia,and break it down into tribal fiefdoms,to be at par with Somalia,then so be it.

^^Caawa raggu waa shaah adeer! Being sujuwi (war waxa sidee loo qoraa ), somali, american all in one comes handy!

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by Baashi:

Awoowe qaansada ma adaa ku dhaca oo jebin kara? Ma waxaad wadaa Dhagoolkii yiri sac baa seeri ka ciyay!

Dhagaheedba ma leh ee muu innaka daayo weeye warku.

^^

Rag tashaday cirkuu toli karaa taako labadeede'e !

 

Talo ayey u baahantahay Baashow! One can vandalize if one so desires, and you know it Baashi!

[Paragon]

Any plan that involves the defeat of Ethiopia would do for me, Xiinow. I like yours. More details please .

[ElPunto]

War Xiin - solution-ka aad watid - waa Burn, Burn, Burn! Sorta reminds me of Condoleeza Rice during the Israeli destruction of Lebanon in 2006 - 'the birth pangs of a new Middle East'

[xiinfaniin]

^^Or perhaps something along my previous slash-n-burn theory lines! But this time I am armed with new diagnosis; the root cause is no longer tribalism, it’s a failure of Somali leadership collectively. The theatre of slashing-n-burning should no longer be Somalia--- I have marked Ethiopia to be our great exercise.

 

Those two should compensate the earlier anomalies in my previous plan!

 

What say you yaa Pointka? Tuuji maskaxdaada, your canadian edcuation must yeild something, no?

[ElPunto]

^Seems to me that the Gub-Gub Theory is the one that requires minimal maskax tuujis

 

I haven't quite got the connectionb between the failure of Somali leadership(which I agree with) and Burn, Baby, Burn remedy. Enlighten me there please.

[xiinfaniin]

^^I drop you from my list, waad dhaga adagtahay!

 

Where's Xubeero?

[ElPunto]

^Xikmaad dhagahaygu waa u furanyiheen.

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by GJ:

If there was don't be surpirsed if mysterious jets bomb the living daylight out of Eitrea's military and political insitutions.

quote:Ethiopia(America?) also has been building up its air force and jamming Eritrean radar, according to a U.S. government source, who speculated that Ethiopia may strike by air in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, hoping to topple the government there.

[Che -Guevara]

By Tsegaye Tadesse

 

ADDIS ABABA, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Ethiopia on Tuesday said it had no plans to go to war with rival Eritrea over their disputed border, and again urged Asmara to pull its troops back and begin dialogue over marking the frontier.

 

Ethiopia's comments came a day after the watchdog International Crisis Group (ICG) warned the two Horn of Africa nations could easily slide into a repeat of their 1998-2000 border war which killed 70,000 people.

 

"Ethiopia has no desire to go to war with Eritrea. Its expectation is to try and resolve the crisis in a peaceful and legal manner," Foreign Ministry spokesman Wahade Belay said.

 

Wahade said Ethiopia wanted Eritrea to pull its soldiers out of a 25 km (15 mile) buffer zone on the Eritrean side and stop restrictions it has placed on 1,700 peacekeepers from the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE).

 

"For the crisis to end, Eritrea has to pull out its troops ... restore the right of UNMEE to patrol the border," he said.

 

The Eritrean government had no immediate comment.

 

The two countries have been deadlocked over demarcation of the 1,000 km (620 mile) border since an independent commission awarded the town of Badme to Eritrea in 2002, under terms of a peace deal signed at the end of the war in 2000.

 

The commission, frustrated by the intransigence of both parties, has given the two countries until Nov. 30 to demarcate the border or else it will let it stand as it decided.

 

Last week, Eritrea thrice accused Ethiopia of planning to invade, an allegation Addis Ababa has dismissed as fabrication.

 

ICG warned that war may break out in a matter of weeks unless the international community puts pressure on both sides to halt any belligerent actions.

 

Ethiopia has 100,000 troops on the border, and Eritrea has 4,000 inside the buffer zone with 120,000 nearby, ICG said.

 

As Washington's top ally in the region, Ethiopia is seen as having a fairly free hand against Eritrea, ICG said.

 

Eritrea on the other hand has such poor relations that the United States is considering putting it on a list of state sponsors of terrorism for its backing of militant Somali Islamists to frustrate Ethiopia, allied with interim Somali government. (Writing by Bryson Hull, editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Mary Gabriel)

 

SOURCE: Reuters, November 6, 2007

[RedSea]

If they do, I hope Eritrea wins.

[Liqaye]

When Hannibal was laying waste to the roman hinterland army after army was sent against him, the romans trained their armies better, they were

fighting for their land and consequently morale was high, eminent citizens were sent against Hannibal, generals of repute failed, novel tactics were deployed and hitherto never seen weapons of war failed against what was qualitatively an inferior army made up of a hodgepodge of mercenaries and myriad nationalities.Pound for pound Hannibal was the better strategist where the troops under his command fought with the

determined frenzy of men far from home and won every single battle against the romans.

This was the status quo until one man decided to look at the problem from a different angle Scipio Africanus realised the only way to defeat Hannibal and bring the war of attrition being fought in roman lands to a definite end was to attack what in strategic terms is refered to the center of gravity of the enemy, first elucidated by Von clausewitz the idea was to attack the center of gravity of the enemy.

This how ever did not only entail the attacking of the enemies headquarters or some other simplicity the center of gravity of the enemy that most integral part of their makeup could mean alot of things, in the case of Hannibal Africanus set sail and attacked carthage, carthage provided the money, and the trickle of manpower that Hannibal could use to make good his losses and continue with his adventures in roman lands while failing to be desicive enough to force and end to an issue.

Hannibal for the first time had to REACT to the play put in place by Africanus rather than set the agenda, he was forced to return to carthage and lead the defence of the motherland of carthage [around present day Tunis] at the battle of Zama Africanus having learnt the lessons of carthagian warfare used mercenary numidan horsemen to strike the desicive blow that defeated the great Hannibal.

The scenario Xiin is putting forth is just a variation of the same strategy with in the somali context.

Among the right channels my arguments have been exactly the same.

Right now somalia is dismembered and is shaded by the umbrella of pax ethiopica, in somaliland riyaale holds sway and after the election what ever ideas that might be held by some in somaliland, the reality that a tyranny or dictatorship shall never end it self will become obvious, in puntland venality is the norm and before the galvanizing actions of somaliland in las canood puntland was breaking apart at the seems under the weight of a minuscule elite's trepidations on the treasury and body politics of that particular bantustan. In somalia proper a cabal of warlords parlay as the mortar shells go off every night.

The common denominator is that the present "leadership" of the Somali people derive their legitimacy from the intervention of Ethiopia.

[a case in point is Abdullah yusuf and the saga of puntland, I do not wish to enter into the irrelevancies of local politics but the bottom line is that he was restored to his position at the barrel of an ethiopian gun cest tous].

 

Now there are some of you who feel that this situation is desirable, these are the people who believe right is might always, what they fail to understand is that might changes and what is right today will be wrong tommorow.

 

So how would a weak or to all purposes non-existent Ethiopia mean for the other Somalis who are not enamored in the Stockholm syndrom represented by the Ethiopian military and financial underpinning of the current Somali reality.

 

Somalis could make their own decisions, in Somalia as a whole it would be the final extinguishing, the drying up of the source, the ending of the support for the warlords, for the war profiteers, and for those that ignore the voices of the people for a phone call from addis ababa

 

Regardless if you are a somalilander a puntlander or a somaliweyn exponent, I feel that this change of climate would be conducive to the sort of real attainment of political goals, and the creation of administrations based on the will of the people.

 

That is one criteria that Baashi has failed to fulfill in his mental walk abouts on fadhiku heeshis, Baashi has and I have seen this in all his posts where he talks about a meeting of minds across the negotiating table that will ultimately lead to a Somalia that is left to build its own institutions with out foreign interference, failed to illustrate the dynamics of negotiation, namely one never gives up an advantage to reach a goal, this means that ethiopia will not give up its direct interference in somalia, and its goal in the end is a weak somalia.

To think that honest and nationalistic discourse and resolution of issues will occur under the glowering visage of ethiopia is to be utopian in your thoughts and rubbish to the extreme.

Here Baashi you make the same mistake that the chicken hawks or keyboard waranles make, this mistake has nothing to do with distance from the action on the ground Baashi but the following of a line of thought mercilessly to its logical conclusion, if you had you would recognize drivel and empty rhetoric for what it is,in somali and english and delete some of your threads.

 

 

But I digress

 

Let us look at Xiin's objectives, and determine their possibility and reasonableness

 

-Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords.

-Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords.

2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived.

2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived.

3-After five years of a bloody civil war between them, the Tigrinya and Amhara tribes must be given a hand to produce dominant warlords that get orders from Asmara.

4- ****** must be reunited with the Somali republic.

5- Somalia must bring eastern Ethiopia in its sphere of influence after incorporating ****** region.

6- after about 20 years of creating new reality in Abyssinia, Somalia and Eritrea must come into agreement to share Ethiopia’s human resources to.

-Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords.

 

Firstly what we must all realise is the existential threat that the ideas of somalia and ethiopia are to each other.

The notion of somalia, muslim, united under one language, culture and religion legitimised by the popular support of the consulted masses is the polar opposite of the idea of ethiopia as a multicultural melding of 70 million disparate entities under the absolute domination of one or the other tribal elite.

As if this was not enough to create cool relations between the two entities, the gerrymanding of colonial masters led to 30% of the land mass of Somalia being outside it in the hands of ethiopians and through the gerrymanding of god, ethiopia's 70m people are for ever faced with the reality of no access to the sea.

 

The TPLF goverment if defeated will fight for the ethnic balkanization of Ethiopia any body who has a smidgen of knowledge of the Ethiopian governments development and political record will realize the mentality of the TPLF is dedicated not to the a united Ethiopia but one that is finely balanced on the lines ethnic intreasts and not one based on a universal unifying and justifiable national ethos.

It is safe to say that thetendencyof Ethiopian politics in the case of defeat by eriteria or through internal attrition will to the same as in Somalia although the attempts of the west to halt the decline of their client state will be immense and will make their attempts in somalia look like the resolving of a little local difficulites.

So not only is xiin justified in asking for the defeat of ethiopia and it break up in to mini enclaves, I would inform him that in the case of a defeat that would happen anyway.

2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived.

 

Who could argue with this, the somalilanders would have a chance to negotiate with a legitimate goverment in a govermental framework involving the U.N that could bring their dreams of independence to reality, the federalists such as puntland could dictate the creation of a federal dispensation with in somalia that safeguards their rights, the islamists would be free to affect their agenda with out the direct interference of the ethiopians all with in the then possible dirrin format, with out the interference of our next door neighbour.

3-After five years of a bloody civil war between them, the Tigrinya and Amhara tribes must be given a hand to produce dominant warlords that get orders from Asmara.

 

You forget the oromos and the Sountern ethnic groups like the sidama, as well as the direct intreast of the sudan in the gambella and other border regions of ethiopia.

 

What are the arguments against what xiin has said?

 

The moral argument

 

I refered earlier to the idea of the existential struggle going on in the horn, Ethiopia has a strategy it has nothing to do with meles or mengistu or selassie indeed the different political milieus of the a forenamed individuals still lead to a common strategy for somalia namely keep it weak.

A weak Somalia is a complacent Somalia, what few people here realize is the C.U.D's support of the strategy being used against Somalis while deploring the tactics of the TPLF regime in mogadishu.

If this is the case then the zero sum game being played out in somalia can as easily occur in ethiopia indeed even more easily with even worse results.

If this makes some of us squeamish, while not condemning you I ask which moral framework do espouse which will prevent the present tactical actions of Ethiopia in Somalia as well as its strategic plans for Somalia?

 

Ethiopia's involvement in somalia has meant the proping up of illigitimate groups and warlords, and the suffocation at birth of any movement that wished to counteract the actions of this cancer on the somali body politic, the TNG was frustrated and the ICU cornered all the while ethiopias agents in somalia have brought the country to its knees.

 

One cannot hold something down with out holding down the adjoining

 

By retarding Somalia, how can Ethiopia hope to prosper? I do not mean this in terms of revenge or what ever but does Ethiopia exist in a vacuum? Is it immune to what infects its neighbors? the Ethiopian elite do not think so they keep Somalia and Sudan weak recognizing the threat that emanates from this entities, but what do these entities have as a plan for Ethiopia??

 

Mark my words it will be futile for all of those that wish for a democratic and strong somalia, to think of these issues in terms of somalia alone, I have to congratulate both Che and Xiin for getting the missing part of the map, Somalia and ethiopia are in a deadly embrace.

Xiin has articulated what he feels the strategy vis a vis ethiopia is.

 

What is yours?

 

 

P.S

To ngonge

 

Brother you are walking a fine line, the politics section is full of wish full thinkers but some times people attempt to articulate ideas that with in contain the kernels of a paradigm shift, would it surprise you that the ONLF and OLF as well as the SDMO are starting to come around to the same ideas espoused by xiin?

What if this organisations met with the A.R.S and had broadly painted out this very scenario in asmara?

Would that not be a concrete application of xiins theories??

But ngonge you moving from being the guy with the insights and the intreasting tidbits to that annoying kid who says and then? and then? and then? and construes the silence of his seniors as the winning of an argument?

perhaps ngonge your persona as the resident cynic is fraying at the collar, people recognize the futility of life where as the cynic discovers this fact every day.

Let us just say I am getting bored of you realising the futility of things on SOL on every thread with less and less of a humurous riposte.

With out humor the cynic is no longer engaging he just becomes a little kid screaming and then and then and then.

[AYOUB]

Originally posted by Faarax-Brawn:

War & victory over Ethiopia is the answer to a stable Somalia. To see a vibrant,strong and viable Somali state,then we must defeat(or distablize),the country that is solely responsible for our woes.

That was Gen. Barre's intent when he armed several anti Mengistu movements including Meles' TPLF. I think it is fair to say Gen. Barre's investments were not total success. What guarantees your Ethio chickens won't come "home" to roost in the future?

[Liqaye]

There are no guarantees for anything Ayoub, this would not be a movie, who could have believed in 1997 that within a few short months the "brotherly" regimes of eriteria and ethiopia would be at war?

 

In 1991 the E.P.L.F gifted its cadres and waponry to the T.P.L.F enabling it to be the predominant armed force with in ethiopia, if Siad Barres regime was still marginally strong as in pre-1988 he might have taken the opportunity of the fall of mengistu's regime to back other players in ethiopia, there by denying the fait accompli the T.P.L.F had gained with E.P.L.F support.