Ethiopia, Eritrea may go to war 'in weeks'

[Che -Guevara]

By Andrew Cawthorne

 

Nairobi - Horn of Africa enemies Ethiopia and Eritrea may return to war about their disputed border in a matter of weeks if there is no major international push to halt them, an influential think-tank warned on Monday.

 

A 1998 to 2000 war on the boundary killed 70 000 people and brought untold hardship to two of the world's poorest nations.

 

Now analysts are warning of a repeat as troops build up ahead of an end-November deadline by an independent boundary commission for Ethiopia and Eritrea to mark out their border.

 

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real," wrote the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a report on the growing crisis.

 

"A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart - more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis."

 

The ICG urged the United States and the United Nations to flex their muscles "to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated".

 

Washington sees Ethiopia as its best ally in the region, but ties with Eritrea have deteriorated so much it may put Asmara on its list of terrorism sponsors for backing Somali Islamists.

 

The United Nations has a peacekeeping force of 1 700 people charged with monitoring a security buffer zone on Eritrea's side of the 1 000-km frontier.

 

"International indifference of mistaken confidence could cost the people of the Horn of Africa dearly," the ICG added.

 

The think-tank report came after Eritrea accused Ethiopia for the third time in a week of planning an invasion, an allegation Addis Ababa has termed an "absurd" fabrication.

 

The ICG cited US estimates that Eritrea had 4 000 soldiers, supported by artillery and armour, in the "supposedly demilitarised TSZ" as well as 120 000 troops nearby.

 

Despite an offensive against insurgents in its east, and a foreign mission in Somalia where it is helping the government fight Islamist rebels, Ethiopia also maintains 100 000 troops on its border with Eritrea, the ICG added, quoting US estimates.

 

"The situation could hardly be more explosive," it said.

 

The neighbours have been in dispute since the independent boundary body awarded Eritrea the Badme town in a 2002 ruling.

 

Although it now says it accepts the ruling, Ethiopia is still insisting on dialogue over implementation.

 

"Eritrea has right on its side on this point but has played its cards very badly," the ICG said, referring to Eritrea's disputes with the United Nations and expulsion of foreign staff.

 

"Ethiopia has played its hand skilfully. It has used its position as the major power in the region to win US toleration of its intransigence," it added.

 

"It would not be surprising if Addis Ababa believes an effort in the near future to stage a coup in Asmara and use force against an Eritrean government that has few friends would also be tolerated in Washington."

 

Both run by former rebel leaders, Ethiopia's 81 million population dwarfs Eritrea's five million.

 

The ICG forecasts that if war breaks out, Ethiopia would seek to take Asmara and Assab port to topple Eritrea's government.

 

Frustrated by lack of progress, the boundary commission says the nations have until the end of this month to mark the border physically, or it will fix the border on maps and let it stand.

 

Diplomats worry that date could prove a trigger.

 

The ICG took a swipe at both nation's authoritarian governments, calling Eritrea "one of the most repressive regimes in Africa" and saying Ethiopia has "no intention to genuinely democratise".

 

SOURCE: Reuters, November 5, 2005

[Castro]

About time!

 

Despite the (false) impression this looming war is good for Somalis everywhere (even in Ocadenia) by opening yet a third front on Ethiopia, unfortunately, the entire Horn of Africa is likely to suffer even more than it does today. Many lives of the innocent will be lost and many more will be displaced, likely permanently.

 

Who will benefit? Dabodhilifs on all sides. War profiteers. The makers of weapons. The West. NGO's. etc...

 

Allow sahal.

[Che -Guevara]

New Eritrea-Ethiopia war fears

 

Ethiopia is said to have 100,000 troops on the border with Eritrea

Ethiopia and Eritrea may return to war over their disputed border without foreign moves to resolve the crisis, warns the International Crisis Group.

The ICG wants US and UN intervention as the military build up by both countries on the border is at alarming levels.

 

The International Boundary Commission has given the two countries till the end of November to mark the border physically or it will fix it on maps.

 

But foreign diplomats fear the deadline could end up being a trigger for war.

 

 

Some 80,000 people died during the border war between 1998 and 2000.

 

The disputed town of Badme was awarded to Eritrea in 2002, but Ethiopia insists on talks about the border demarcation.

 

 

Click here to see a map of the border

The United Nations has a peacekeeping force of 1,700 charged with monitoring a security buffer zone on Eritrea's side.

 

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military build up at the common border has reached alarming proportions," an ICG report on the crisis says.

 

The influential think tank now wants the US and the UN to make it clear to both governments that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated.

 

"There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart - more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis," the report said.

 

The report comes after Eritrea for the third time, accused Ethiopia of planning an invasion.

 

But Ethiopia has dismissed the claims as a fabrication.

 

The ICG estimates that Eritrea has 4,000 soldiers supported by artillery and amour in the demilitarised zone and some 120,000 nearby.

 

And it says Ethiopia maintains 100,000 troops on the border with Eritrea.

 

The US views Ethiopia as its main ally in the region, while it has named Eritrea as sponsors of terrorism for backing the ousted Somali Islamists.

[Che -Guevara]

Castro......You are on the money, war will not benefit anyone in the horn , but unfortunately the jingoistic attitude by Abyssinia towards to the rest of the horn including the southern nations in present Ethiopia is what's gonna spark this war. Man like Zenawi believes Abyssinia's right to reign the Horn.

[Paragon]

^^And anyway Eritrea can't keep it up. Resources, you see.

[xiinfaniin]

The formula for a peaceful horn is the following.

 

1-Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords.

2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived.

3-After five years of a bloody civil war between them, the Tigrinya and Amhara tribes must be given a hand to produce dominant warlords that get orders from Asmara.

4- ****** must be reunited with the Somali republic.

5- Somalia must bring eastern Ethiopia in its sphere of influence after incorporating ****** region.

6- after about 20 years of creating new reality in Abyssinia, Somalia and Eritrea must come into agreement to share Ethiopia’s human resources to.

 

As per the above formula, the horn region needs a war. The war we are currently having is happening in the wrong theatre. The sooner this war creeps deep into Ethiopian territory, the closer the realization of peace gets.

[Castro]

^^^^ I must say I like the hawkish view atheer. And it is indeed tragic that all the misery has descended upon our people but I'm not one to wish similar calamities on anyone, including the (people) Tigray, Amhara or Eritreans. If Zenawi is toppled, it would be great for that will mean dabodhilif Yey is gone as well and the mini Somali states will have no sugar daddy to support them.

 

Let's see.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Ethiopia, in its current form and strategy, is a danger to the Horn region. Zenawi can be toppled today. But his toppling will not change the suicidal policies of this poor nation I am afraid. There must be a war in Ethiopia to alter the nature of this mad state. If you've been following those Amhars who have been testifying in the American congress you must have noticed what they oppose is not necessarily current American/Ethiopian strategy in fighting terror as they see it but the lack of good governance and democracy in Ethiopia. In other words, they don’t really mind Ethiopia’s violent domination and influence in Somalia.

 

Adeer dabodhilifs are your people. You can buy them out. You can entice them with some other goodies. Concentrating on them is missing the point really. What needs exponential thinking is to how to take this fight inside Ethiopia and influence the great nation, albeit sleeping one, of Oromia. Research on Ethiopia, and look at their economy. Infrastructure. Supply routes. Airports. Schools. Hospitals. There are no Somalis who love Ethiopia as alleged. Those who are with them today see it as their interest. The politics of forming alliance with Ethiopia has become a necessary variable in the Horn political calculus. A noble strategy in my mind would be to break and dry up the source instead of talking about or fighting the dabodhilifs yaa Castro...

[Baashi]

Somalia is not occupied. Benadir is. Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, the two Shabeele's, the two Juba's, Gedo, Galgaduud, PL, and SL residents made crystal clear where they stand. None of them wants to lift their faryareey. They don't want to help Benadir residents out. According to their actions, that fight is not theirs. They couldn't care less if the whole place is put in the furnace!

 

Why???????????????

[Castro]

^^^^ Myopia.

 

First they came for the Somali-Galbeed

and I did not speak out

because I was not from Somali-Galbeed.

 

Then they came for the Benadiri's

and I did not speak out

because I was not a Benadiri.

 

Then they came for the Shabeeles

and I did not speak out

because I was not from the Shabeeles.

 

Then they came for the Puntlanders

and I did not speak out

because I was not a Puntlander.

 

Then they came for the Somalilanders

and I did not speak out

because I was not a Somalilander.

 

Then they came for me

and there was no one left

to speak out for me.

[Zafir]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

^^Ethiopia, in its current form and strategy, is a danger to the Horn region. Zenawi can be toppled today. But his toppling will not change the suicidal policies of this poor nation I am afraid. There must be a war in Ethiopia to alter the nature of this mad state. If you've been following those Amhars who have been testifying in the American congress you must have noticed what they oppose is not necessarily current American/Ethiopian strategy in fighting terror as they see it but the lack of good governance and democracy in Ethiopia. In other words, they don’t really mind Ethiopia’s violent domination and influence in Somalia.

 

Adeer dabodhilifs are your people. You can buy them out. You can entice them with some other goodies. Concentrating on them is missing the point really. What needs exponential thinking is to how to take this fight inside Ethiopia and influence the great nation, albeit sleeping one, of Oromia. Research on Ethiopia, and look at their economy. Infrastructure. Supply routes. Airports. Schools. Hospitals. There are no Somalis who love Ethiopia as alleged. Those who are with them today see it as their interest. The politics of forming alliance with Ethiopia has become a necessary variable in the Horn political calculus. A noble strategy in my mind would be to break and dry up the source instead of talking about or fighting the dabodhilifs yaa Castro...

Looks like you're employing utilitarianism, asking the ruin of innocent people yaa Xiin,is that justifiable in your cause?

[xiinfaniin]

^^I am not asking the ruin of innocent people. I am merely stating what needs be done to stop Ethiopia from destructing us Somalis further than it has already done. Yes Baashi has a point and Somalis have been used against each other. Castro even elaborated on that point further. What gets me though is the people being not able to see the big picture. Dabodhilif this and dabodhilif that wont do the trick adeerayaal.

 

Besides Ethiopia has a very shaky foundation that’s built on the graves of innocent people. I am not that humanitarian adeer; to safe Somalia I am willing to sacrifice Ethiopia if it comes down to that! So yes I am praying the collapse of Ethiopia with all its consequences. Still though I can clearly see the moral quandary in this Zafirow!

[Gediid]

^^^^Easier said than done.Ethiopia's destruction will not happen anytime soon Xiinow.They have the west to thank that for and no matter what you say or do will not change that.For centuries that is how they have survived and that is how they will continue to survive.Qiiro Japan(qiiro yar oo raqiis ah) aan meel gaadheyn wax eey ka tareyso arrintan baa iska yar....

 

Arrintan oo kale nin baa beri hore ka gabyey inta yar een ka xasuusto wuxu yidhi

 

Meel Aad joogtan dagaal labta ka ogaada

Haddi Madax nili gooyo Lugaha meermeersha

 

Marka Xiinow raggu waa bilaa madax ee lugaha ayaad qurbe bilaash la dhex mereysanysaa

[NGONGE]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

The formula for a peaceful horn is the following.

 

1-Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords.

2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived.

3-After five years of a bloody civil war between them, the Tigrinya and Amhara tribes must be given a hand to produce dominant warlords that get orders from Asmara.

4- ****** must be reunited with the Somali republic.

5- Somalia must bring eastern Ethiopia in its sphere of influence after incorporating ****** region.

6- after about 20 years of creating new reality in Abyssinia, Somalia and Eritrea must come into agreement to share Ethiopia’s human resources to.

 

As per the above formula, the horn region needs a war. The war we are currently having is happening in the wrong theatre. The sooner this war creeps deep into Ethiopian territory, the closer the realization of peace gets.

A peaceful Horn or just a peaceful Somalia?

 

At any rate, I doubt if number four there applies. I don't think the Somali people of that region would want to join Somalia (if they manage to break free from Ethiopia).

[Fabregas]

Originally posted by Baashi:

Somalia is not occupied. Benadir is. Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, the two Shabeele's, the two Juba's, Gedo, Galgaduud, PL, and SL residents made crystal clear where they stand. None of them wants to lift their faryareey. They don't want to help Benadir residents out. According to their actions, that fight is not theirs. They couldn't care less if the whole place is put in the furnace!

 

Why???????????????

Perhaps you have an answer in mind?