Malawi Soldiers set for Somalia death trap

[Castro]

Malawi soldiers are on the verge of being sent to help the weak Somali transitional government in a peacekeeping mission to help restore security and order after weeks of fighting wrestling power from the grip of the Islamists.

 

Other African countries that might offer troops include Uganda, Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal, Benin and Ghana. But so far most countries are sticking to the line that they have to be asked formally for contributions.

 

Ibrahim Gambari , the undersecretary-general for political affairs, told reporters after briefing the U.N. Security Council that Nigeria, South Africa and Malawi "are said to be considering sending troops" to Somalia. "We hope that these countries will actually go ahead and commit."

 

The international community have been calling for an African peacekeeping force in Somalia as soon as possible to help create order out of chaos and insecurity. But it is only Uganda, which has promised around 1,000 troops already prepared deployment.

 

In theory, everyone who needed to approve it has done so. The United Nations okayed the idea back in December 2006, before the war between Islamists and the interim government. And the African Union (AU) and East African body IGAD say they're willing to send more than 8,000 peacekeepers. But given the challenges of pacifying a country where people carry guns like handbags, African nations seem reluctant to get involved.

 

Ethiopia - which dispatched the Islamists from Mogadishu and other key towns - has accomplished its mission and wants to withdraw its troops within weeks. But without Addis Ababa's muscle, Somalia's interim government - now precariously installed in Mogadishu - looks decidedly wobbly.

 

African countries simply don't have the cash to send in the necessary troops and equipment without outside help. Uganda Monitor newspaper reports that the government has written to the United Nations and African Union "begging for logistical support" as a troop battalion awaits parliamentary approval to deploy in Somalia. It needs not only money, but bullet-proof vests, hats and other military gear, the paper says.

 

The Ugandan Defence Ministry has reportedly yet to receive an answer, but there's a little more time because parliament is in recess and isn't due to restart business until January 30.

 

Nigeria's foreign affairs minister has been quoted saying the Nigerian government won't comment until after an AU summit in Ethiopia on Jan. 29-30. The U.S. air strike at the beginning of this week may also have complicated matters. On top of that, some African nations already have peacekeepers in Ivory Coast, Sudan and Congo, and just don't have a lot of spare capacity.

 

Even if African countries do manage to stitch together a peace force, a few thousand more men with guns won't help Somalia's rival clans share power more equally or lead to a representative government with real popular support.

 

Somalia has not had a functioning government since clan-based warlords toppled dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 and then turned on each other, sinking the Horn of Africa nation of 7 million people into chaos.

Nyasa Times, Malawi

[Castro]

South Africa: Circles of Fire - Staring Into Somalia's Complex Inferno

 

January 12, 2007

 

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen

Johannesburg

 

THE Ethiopian-led and US-backed overthrow of the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia has been swift, but the question of Somalia's future is still wide open. The answer is important to the peace and security of much of east Africa, Washington's war on terror and the millions of Somalis in need of humanitarian assistance. In the absence of a political deal between the transitional government, the more moderate elements in the Union of Islamic Courts and clans, the country stands to return to warlordism. And even if there is a deal, the government could suffer a radical Islamic insurgency. Al- Qaeda has called for an Iraq type insurgency to dislodge the Ethiopian "crusaders" from Somalia.

 

With all the foreign meddling, are the more upbeat scenarios -- such as the type of agreement that emerged in Somaliland, which seceded from Somalia -- possible?

 

The US is attaching increasing strategic importance to Somalia. It already has a military base in Djibouti and last week it dispatched an aircraft carrier to join naval vessels offshore. The US has long been concerned that al-Qaeda fighters fleeing Iraq and Afghanistan would go to Somalia, and it now wants to cut off a sea escape for Islamist fighters.

 

It is highly likely that it was to forestall the possibility of an insurgency that the US launched air attacks this week on what it says were al-Qaeda members, who along with Islamist fighters had fled pursuing Ethiopian troops.

 

As much as it may have done the US a degree of political damage to demonstrate a substantial show of force in Africa, it was an opportune moment for the US to claim some success in the war on terror.

 

With the request for US support having come from the internationally recognised interim government in Somalia, the US had legal ground for action. And while the new secretary-general of the United Nations, Ban ki-Moon, as well as the European Union, Norway and Italy, have criticised the US over the attack, the silence from Africa, including SA, has been overwhelming.

 

What the US, the Ethiopians and the Kenyans fear most is another Afghanistan. Both Afghanistan and Somalia have suffered from a weak central government and warlordism at various stages. And in both cases, a short campaign pushed out Islamist governments. In Afghanistan the Taliban have resurfaced with a vengeance over the past year.

 

If an Islamic insurgency is prevented, or at least restricted, in Somalia and the wider region, the campaign to overthrow the Islamists is likely to be claimed as a successful model for Washington's war on terror.

 

The campaign in Somalia was not US-led. It was led by Ethiopia, a regional power, allowing the US to avoid casualties and the need for a substantial troop presence. Politically, the US may well have preferred that the Ethiopians -- and ideally the transitional government -- do the entire job, but circumstances probably made that hard.

 

The US has clearly learnt -- from Iraq and Afghanistan -- that the end of a campaign can be illusory, and can be used by its enemy to regroup. The Taliban were overthrown in Afghanistan nearly five years ago and after relative quiet for four years, they have regrouped.

 

Somalia allows the US to point to a success in its war on terror at a time that it is facing severe problems on its other fronts -- notably Iraq and Afghanistan. However, Washington will keep a watchful eye from its base in Djibouti. The lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan have not been lost on the US military and a recent US defence department report on counter- insurgency underscored the long-term nature of such campaigns.

 

But the foreign interest from the US, al-Qaeda, Ethiopia and Kenya in Somali clan politics is a risk to any future settlement. Somalia is a theatre for proxy wars and will continue to be so for some time, given its strategic location so close to the Bab al Mandeb choke point into the Red Sea, which leads into the Suez Canal. Further, clan politics makes it susceptible to foreign powers who want avenues to challenge their rivals. The danger would become incendiary should, say, Iran decide to use Somalia as an arena in which to challenge the US.

 

The real problem Somalia faces now is: what next? That's the very question the US failed to answer in Iraq and it is bound to be the most challenging problem with any regime change situation.

 

The Islamic Courts raised international fears of a new terror base in Africa but Somali analysts agree that their six-month rule provided law and order and some other state functions. With a sense of order, open clan rivalry was reduced.

 

Richard Cornwell, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies, says that while a Taliban-type state was never a prospect, the Taliban provoked Ethiopia with calls for jihad and its support for rebel groups. Jihadist rhetoric and recruitment of foreign fighters was a further provocation.

 

It will be difficult for the transitional government to establish legitimacy, due to Ethiopia's involvement in the overthrow. In Mogadishu, warlords and clans are rearming and preparing to defend their turf and seize opportunities that have come from the end of the Union of Islamic Courts' control.

 

The UN's preferred solution appears to be a peacekeeping force, preferably dominated by Muslim countries. SA is among those considering the request but is insisting that the clans reach a deal before a mission is sent. But if the clans do reach a deal, would there really be the need for such a force to be sent at all? It could merely emerge as a target for extremists.

 

Somalia's clan politics have always been complicated, but they are getting a lot more dangerous.

AllAfrica.com