What's Zenawi doing in Somalia?

[Wiilo]

What's Zenawi doing in Somalia?

 

By Fekade Shewakena

July 26, 2006

 

 

 

There is no question that any form of political development in Somalia is bound to affect Ethiopia one way or the other. Ethiopia and Somalia share a long porous boundary and ethnic Somalis live straddling the ill-defined boundary between the two countries. The fact that most of the inhabitants of the long border area are pastoralists who constantly move between the two counties at will also adds to the volatility of the region.

 

Moreover, Ethiopia and Somalia have also fought multiple bloody wars and some historical hostility still persists. More importantly, Somalia’s contention against Ethiopia has been manipulated by Ethiopia’s traditional enemies who think that weakening Ethiopia is in their national interest. It is also interesting and ironic to note that Somalia has been a good friend of Meles Zenawi and his TPLF during the days of his insurgency. Countries and parties interested in playing hardball with the Nile politics have always been rearing their heads from inside Ethiopia’s south eastern neighbor. Some have been supplying arms to flare the conflict between the two countries. It is hard to know if forces hostile to Ethiopia want to benefit Somalia, but their sole objective seems to be preserving a weak Ethiopia that is incapable of doing anything on the Abbay basin. Any Ethiopian government is therefore perfectly justified in being anxious about developments taking place inside Somalia and working to preserve Ethiopia’s national interest.

 

It is hard to understand where the current developments, particularly the rise of the Islam and Islamism as a unifying philosophy of governance would lead Somalia to. It is not at all hard to understand why larger number of Somalis who are known to practice a moderate form of Islam throughout their history would rally around Islamic leaders and Islamism now. For over a decade now, Somalia has been torn apart as a country and decimated into a failed state by thuggish warlords and clan chiefs who partitioned the country and divided it into medieval like fiefdoms. The people of Somalia have been tormented and plagued by lawlessness. A lot of them have become refugees around the world including in Ethiopia. The Islamic Courts have been the only institutions that have provided a semblance of government by handling matters of justice and social service in the communities. This explains the reason for anyone surprised by the immediate success of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) recently. The people of Somalia have been tormented and plagued by lawlessness. A lot of them have become refugees around the world including in Ethiopia. The Islamic Courts have been the only institutions that have provided a semblance of government by handling matters of justice and social service in the communities. This explains the reason for anyone surprised by the immediate success of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) recently. Somalis are sick and tired and fed up of these thugs some of whom are present in the flailing Transitional Government, some with life support by the government of Ethiopia and pandering to the global antiterrorism agenda. The attempt to characterize Somalis as hard line Islamists simply because they are rallying behind their religious leaders currently is not only unfair but also a misunderstanding of the ordeal of the people of Somalia and their frustration. Somalians are known to be fiercely independent people with a known sense of identity and dignity. Historians and social scientists familiar with Somalia tell us that the Islamists would not have significant following had the country was not turned into a failed state. We all know that they have rejected the use of the Arabic alphabet in favor of the Latin earlier in their history, despite attempts and pressure by many Arab countries to do that. Experts on Somalia advise against a rush to conclusion and on the need to talk to the ICU leaders rather than condemning them wholesale at the outset as terrorists. It is not even clear if the leaders of the ICU have a homogenous thinking of the role of Islam in government at this time. The rhetoric of some of the ICU leaders sounds fundamentalist, but it has to also be known that the ICU is composed of Islamic courts leaders that have difficulty understanding what to do with their new found rise and popular support. The wisest thing to do now is not to play into the hands of the extremists by inflaming the passion in the population and perpetuating the hopelessness that extremism feeds on. Much of the good that can come out from what is taking place in Somalia now therefore depends on outside forces and to the extent that they are understood while sorting out their problems.

 

The government of Ethiopia led by Meles Zenawi is now playing a shortsighted and unhelpful role in the Somali crisis. Meles Zenawi's intervention is not only negatively affecting developments inside Somalia, but also is leading the area into a larger conflagration. It is helping radicalize the movement in Somalia to the determent of both Ethiopia’s interests and the global war against terrorism.

 

It is unclear whether the stated objectives of the Ethiopian regime is being served by the actions Meles is and his TPLF clique are taking now or whether they have another objective to be served by irresponsibly inflaming the crisis in Somalia. I argue that the current policies of the Ethiopian government and its incursions into Somalia to defend a hated transitional regime cannot serve Ethiopia’s national interest. Nor do I believe that the incursions and meddling in the affairs of Somalia is to protect any Ethiopian national interest. It appears more of a game of playing the antiterrorism card by Meles Zenawi to find a cover from the crime his government is committing against his people and his political opponents.

 

That appears to be the reason why he is knowingly playing into the hands of the more radical elements in Somalia by giving them a unifying agenda. Meles knows very well that any Ethiopian military intervention could bring out old wounds between the two counties and powers Somali nationalism and helps the Islamists and anti Ethiopian interventionists on Somalia’s side. Meles Zenawi’s irresponsible intervention has therefore a lot to do with the interest of the hated regime he leads. After having twice mowed down peaceful demonstrators protesting his fraudulent election of May 2005, and imprisoning the entire leadership of the main opposition party the CUD and turning entire Ethiopia into a prison, Meles is facing a disappointed West that was craftily led into believing he is a reformer. It appears that Meles is trying to look a more loyal anti-terrorism ally for the United States and whether the widespread uneasiness among members of the US Congress and international humanitarian groups on his continued repressive rule. A serious bi-partisan bill demanding Meles Zenawi to account for his repressive actions and abuse of human rights is pending in Congress now. Meles Zenawi’s lobbyists employed for $50,000 a month by money snatched from the mouths of hungry children recently and a newly appointed ambassador are parading the anti-terrorism cooperation flag to cover for the crimes the regime is committing in Ethiopia. The outcry of international human rights groups and the growing pro-democracy Ethiopian Diaspora has shaken Meles standing in the West and among his allies who were intelligently manipulated into believing he is a reformer. Ever since the war on terrorism is declared and Meles offered himself to be the coalition of the willing, he and his tribal party the TPLF, have reaped various benefits, including being given a blind eye and defending silence by the United States administration while he mows down demonstrators like flies and herds citizens into a network of concentration camps throughout the country and after having been proven to have rigged the election both by the Carter Center observers and the observers of the Election observers of European Union, that declared the election lacking minimum standards of democratic electoral practice. The suspicion that elements of international terrorism exist in Ethiopia’s neighbor by the US government has served him very well too. If former US diplomat Herman Cohen is to be believed, Meles Zenawi was also feeding false information to the US government about terrorism in the Horn of Africa and about political actors inside Somalia while also recruiting friends from among the warlords who also called themselves antiterrorist with the same smart objective of garnering western political and financial support.

 

The question is therefore not whether Ethiopia should be concerned about the developments in Somalia. It is about what the regime of Meles Zenawi is exactly doing. It is not even hard to see as to why Meles is trying to inflame the conflict further and risk a wider conflict in one of the poorest areas of the world. Does anybody think this is in Ethiopia’s interest? Meles is a fairly sophisticated tactician and he knows it is not for Ethiopia or any fear of terrorism against Ethiopia. The inflammatory language coming out of the propagandists of the regime also says a few things about Meles Zenawi’s interest to inflame the region than solve any problem. The Minister of Information rant of “we will crush them†and the calling of an ICU leader a "scum†by a spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may seem words that come out of the mouths of individuals who grew up in Kuchira Sefer. But this is the general rhetorical attempts to inflame the passions and for emotions to run high to provoke war. This helps to shadow the terrorism being committed by Meles Zenawi himself against the Ethiopian people and perhaps military help to crush dissent against his hated regime. At this stage it is hard to tell how much the Ethnic policies of the Ethiopian government could fuel the tension at the border between Somalia and Ethiopia. Generally the pastoralists on the Ethiopian side of the border have been more related to their kin in Mogadishu than the Ethiopian center. The long held aspirations of the formation of Greater Somalia, by bringing ethnic Somalis dispersed in three Horn countries, is an aspiration long held among some Somali elite. Most of the wars of aggression Somalis fought against Ethiopia have been driven by this grand idea. It is not even clear now how much the incentive of Meles’s constitutional endorsement though Article 39 for separation would contribute to fueling the conflict in the border area.

 

Ethiopia as a big country and a potential power house in the region has a lot of positive role to play in terms of easing the conflict and leading to the direction of tackling one of the regions most serious problems- poverty. Since Somalia broke down in the early nineties, several thousand Somalis flocked into Ethiopia as refugees and lived mixed with the Ethiopian people. The view of these refugees about the Ethiopian people has been positively changed. They generally had friendly reception by the Ethiopian people and many Somalis tell me that they wish we all break the boundary between our countries and live as one people. The current military intervention of Meles Zenawi in Somalian territory is not only against international law, but also a dangerous adventure. (Meles Zenawi still keeps denying that his troops are inside Somalia even after witnesses, including members of parliament of the Transitional government he supports from falling, have testified otherwise. He is trying to use the same tactic lie making which is the whole mark of his rule in Ethiopia against the international community)

 

Somalia and Ethiopia are complementary in nature and have a lot to gain for their people if they cultivate sane and intelligent relationships between themselves. Ethiopia is the source of the major rivers crossing the Somali Desert. The varied ecology and agricultural practice between Somalia and Ethiopia can help develop an interdependent economy that can benefit the people of the two counties. Now a landlocked Ethiopia, the most populous landlocked country on the planet, can become a huge beneficiary of Somalia’s port facilities and its extensive boundary with the Indian Ocean just like Somalia can be a beneficiary of the Hydropower generation capacity of Ethiopian rivers. The pastoralists along the border whose livelihood is being increasingly affected by frequent global drought can be helped only with a good Ethio-somali development cooperation. The best thing that can happen to Ethiopia south of its border is a stable government that we can deal lawfully and directly with. It is morally reprehensible to benefit from the problem of a fellow African nation and a neighbor. Ethiopia is can only be a looser by having a failed state as its neighbor. Ethiopians should help Somalis sort out their differences and build a better country that can potentially become our partner in defeating the number one enemy that we all have to fight together – poverty. Perhaps prosperity for the entire Horn region depends on cultivating this potential for the good of the people. I see a serious need for a forum of Somalis and Ethiopians to discuss this issue and develop understanding. I think this can begin among the Somali and Ethiopian Diaspora. The Horn of Africa is the poorest corner of Africa and we know what that means by standards of Africa’s poverty. The most insane thing to do in this region is to ignite war and ask our people to carry another burden over their half dead bodies.

 

Ordinary Ethiopians should take a hard look at the adventurism of Meles Zenawi and his TPLF clique before our national feelings are dragged in into a useless conflagration. The river of blood our compatriots and our Eritrean brothers shed on that crazy war of 1998-2000 should be a lesson. We will fight any war to defend ourselves just like our fathers did. We don’t jump into other peoples wars that are fought for the slick purpose our tyrants devise to keep themselves in power.

 

The writer, Fekade Shewakena, can be reached for comments at Fekadeshewakena@yahoo.com