Kenya: We Must Not Become Embroiled in Somalia

[Abwaan]

Kenya: We Must Not Become Embroiled in Somalia

 

John Mbaria

October 3, 2006

 

Last week, Somalia Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Gedi was reportedly snubbed by Kenya's Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang'ula when he called on the latter at his Nairobi office.

 

Mr Wetang'ula may have had his reasons for not meeting Gedi, but for Kenya to retain the respect of all the warring parties in the region, it ought to always remain neutral on the internal affairs of its neighbours. The country should also adopt a foreign policy that does not sacrifice its long-term strategic interests at the altar of America's proxy wars.

 

Indeed, Nairobi, which had earlier pledged to send its soldiers to protect the Federal Transitional Government in Somalia, may be awakening to the folly of supporting the troubled transitional government.

 

When Kenya led the heads of state of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad) in declaring that the grouping would send troops into Somalia, it seemed to have decided to take the path trodden by the Ethiopians, who have sent troops to protect President Abdulahi Yusuf's government. But unlike the Ethiopians, we have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose if we pursue such a path.

 

One can only hope that the Kenyan government will listen to the counsel coming from Somalia. If the truth be told, President's Yusuf's government is made up of the same warlords responsible for much of the killings, robbery and mayhem in Somalia over the past one and a half decades. The fact that they came to Nairobi to establish a government speaks volumes about their popularity back home. Many people in Mogadishu are happy with the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) for restoring peace and order in the capital.

 

Kenya should not blindly align itself with those in the region keen on securing US strategic interests. Ethiopia is currently facing a myriad problems that it hopes to tackle by engaging in proxy wars for the US. On the one hand, there is widespread poverty in much of the country and President Meles Zenawi is looking up to the West to bail him out. On the other hand, the 30-million-strong Oromo people have never given up their struggle for self-determination from what they have all along considered the "Abysinian Empire."

 

FURTHERMORE, IN its quest for the secession of Ethiopia's eastern region of ******, the United Western Somalia Liberation Front has been a constant headache for Zenawi's government. Ethiopia fears that the latter could gain the backing of the Islamic Courts rulers to wrest ****** from Ethiopia.

 

Zenawi is also widely believed to have retained power in the 2005 elections through not-so-scrupulous means and has dealt ruthlessly with Ethiopians who openly campaigned against his rule. This led to a withdrawal of aid by the West, including the US. Observers believe that by sending Ethiopian soldiers to protect President Yusuf - thus staking a claim to a prominent role in the so-called war on terror - Zenawi is reaching out to the US for economic goodies and other support.

 

Seemingly, this is paying dividends. The US - which believes the UIC is not only offering refuge to al-Qaeda operatives but is also spreading a dangerous fundamentalist ideology - has found in Ethiopia a regional darling as attested by recent comments by the US Deputy Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, Don Yamamoto. The latter was recently quoted as saying that Ethiopia "shares and supports US strategic goals on the African continent."

 

But in doing all this, Ethiopia may be readying itself for a military showdown with the UIC, which said last week that it was training 2,000 fighters to defend the country from the invaders. "I have no doubt that the Union of Islamic Courts will fight against the Ethiopians. If the soldiers don't go back, we will go to Addis Ababa," Moalim Hashi Mohamed Farah, a top UIC official, was quoted as saying in the media last week.

 

WHAT NATIONAL or regional goals would Kenya stand to attain by sending our young men and women into Somalia? There are those who believe the UIC's growing influence could spread dangerous fundamentalist ideologies in the region. True, Kenya has suffered two major blows at the hand of terrorists. But who really were the terrorists targeting when they killed hundreds of Kenyans in the two attacks? Was it the many jobless people in town on that fateful August day eight years ago? Was it really the dancers who died in the Kikambala hotel? Sadly, Kenyans were incidental victims of the attacks: US and Israeli interests were the target.

 

There are other reasons why our soldiers should not venture into Somalia. First, the government of Abdullahi Yusuf is not particularly popular. Second, the UIC is bringing a semblance of sanity, order and peace to a country everyone had given up on.

 

Third, the UIC is getting a significant measure of popular support. Fourth, in times of adversity, Islamic countries know how to support their own and may consider Kenya - where 80 per cent of the population is Christian - a part of the hostile circuit.

 

Lastly, Kenya and other Igad countries should be really concerned that the Islamists have taken control of the strategically located Kismayu port and have declared war on any army that dares to venture into the country.

 

It is easy for the UIC to whip up nationalist emotions among millions of Somalis, who would end up perceiving Kenyans and soldiers from the rest of Igad as meddlers and invaders. Memories of the bodies of the 19 US soldiers that were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu in 1993 ought to be fresh in our minds. We do not have the capacity, and neither is it in our interest, to engage in a protracted war against a people who might rediscover a long-lost unity in treating us as invaders.

 

Kenya stands to maintain its respect among and good mutual relations with its warring neighbour by dropping all pretences of knowing what is best for the Somali people. It should stop pursuing America's geopolitical agenda.

 

It is time Kenya became bold enough to tell the US that democracy cannot be enforced by bombs and soldiers. Dialogue, whether with the UIC or with warlords, is not only less disruptive, but is also a win-win strategy as it also gives Igad, the US and its regional supporters a chance to understand (for purposes of containing) the spread of fundamentalism in the region.

 

Source: The East African