NASSIR Posted October 20, 2006 Somali sabre-rattling 10-20-06 It was the style of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) that caught the eye of Somalis, Somalia's neighbours, and the international community at large. Somali politics is like a pendulum. It swung too far in the direction of chaos under the tenure of secular warlords and now is swinging in the direction of law and order -- albeit Taliban-style. The UIC now dominate southern and central Somalia with an iron grip. Militant Islamist militias are now forcibly and systematically disarming rival secularist, clan and tribal-based counterparts. A semblance of order is assured. The militias hold sway over the streets of numerous cities and towns while UIC religious scholars promulgate Islamic Sharia laws. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG), in sharp contrast, is viewed as a valuable interlocutor as far as Western powers are concerned. They are also valued as allies against Islamist militancy, both by the West and by neighbouring countries with sizable ethnic Somali and Muslim minorities such as Ethiopia and Kenya. The TFG, however, controlled by disgruntled warlords who jeopardise the coherence of their own political position by threatening to revert to violent means to realise their political ends, has failed to build any confidence in the nascent Somali democratic process. Many Somalis now believe that TFG leaders should be prevailed upon to share power with UIC leaders. The UIC leadership, for its part, has a way of steering between an overzealous application of strict Sharia laws, which could cause a backlash in some parts of the country, and a pragmatic approach to political manoeuvering. It is uniquely poised to play a political role in this predominantly Muslim nation of 12 million. The problem, though, with the UIC is that where opposition to their religious zeal has shown teeth their tolerance has worn thin. A case in point is the Juba Valley where the local population has been less welcoming to the UIC's strict enforcement of Islamic Sharia laws. Their bigotry has resulted in a deluge of Somali refugees flooding northeast Kenya. Locals are finding it difficult to cope with the Islamists' jargon-littered programme. The larger truth is that the humanitarian situation in Somalia is rapidly deteriorating with Somalis fleeing conditions at home in ever-increasing numbers. Most end up in Kenya. More than 30,000 Somalis have poured across the porous border into Kenya this year. There are an estimated 150,000 Somali refugees in camps in Daadab, northeast Kenya. The influx has alarmed the Somali authorities. "In the process of living in Somalia and in flight, they need guns to protect themselves," Kenyan Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju explained. "As soon as they get into Kenya, they no longer need guns to protect themselves, but guns become a currency, then it compounds the security situation that we have in Kenya." The TFG's troubles stem from the conclusion its leaders have drawn about how it should use its limited powers. Even though the current wave of Somali refugees are mainly fleeing from the stranglehold of the militant Islamists, the exodus is unlikely to improve the TFG's reputation or help the forlorn, indecisive interim Somali government in any practical way. Nonetheless, in the wake of violent incidents in some southern Somali cities stormed by the militias of the UIC, there might be some popular resistance to the militant Islamists in certain parts of the country -- a potential political powder keg. Further, there are persistent reports that the UIC is split along ideological lines with militant Salafists and Qutbists, on the one hand, and moderates led by Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, who is reportedly said to favour dialogue with the West, on the other. However, even the moderate sheikh recently attended a press conference in Mogadishu dressed in military fatigues and brandishing an AK-47 rifle. The more militant strands are led by the mercurial Sheikh Hassan Dhahir Aweis, an old avowed foe of the Ethiopians and archrival of Somali President Abdullah Yusuf. Aweis, with his trademark henna- stained beard, is not particularly charismatic. He is, however, almost always met by adulatory crowds. "It is regrettable that in the process of the preparation for the third round of peace talks in Khartoum at the end of the month, the secretary general of the League of Arab States is not neutral in managing the affairs of Somalia," Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi wrote in a letter addressed to the African Union, the European Union, the United Nations as well as the Arab League. The TFG of Somalia, officially a member of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) -- a grouping of seven East African nations -- desperately wants 3,500 IGAD troops, mostly Sudanese and Ugandan, to be dispatched to Somalia as peacekeepers patrolling the streets of major Somali cities. The UIC, however, vehemently opposes the presence of foreign peacekeepers, African or otherwise. "We warn the international community that it will pay a heavy price in the future if it fails to stop or even condemn the violations and aggression by the Islamists," said TFG spokesman Abdul- Rahman Mohamed Nur Dinari. The Islamic Courts indeed are setting up military training camps throughout southern Somalia to school youngsters in fighting "foreign troops". The TFG and the Islamists signed an interim peace accord that stipulated the eventual amalgamation of their respective troops into a unified security force, the nucleus of a Somali national army. But the terms of this agreement have always been a hard sell in Mogadishu. The prickly question of foreign peacekeepers, if not speedily resolved, is bound to poison the air at Somali peace talks scheduled to take place in the Sudanese capital Khartoum 30 October. Source: Al Ahram Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
