The Lebanonization of Somalia

[Fyr]

Somaliland Times

 

Editorial

 

The Lebanonization of Somalia

 

It is common these days to read in Western political discourse about the “Somali syndrome†or “Somalizationâ€, two expressions that denote political anarchy and lawlessness. The equivalent of these two expressions in the Arab press is al-Sawmalah. In addition to shedding light on analogous situations in other countries, “Somalization†and the “Somali syndrome†serve as simple and easy shorthand for political conditions in Somalia, up to now. However, with the specter of foreign troops coming to Somalia, these terms may no longer be adequate, and we may have to return the favor of our Arab brothers and borrow the term “Labnanah†or “Lebanonization†from them, which stands for civil war and subsequent foreign intervention by a country’s neighbors.

 

Somalis are familiar with civil war. People in the south are also familiar with foreign intervention in the form of UN troops. Col. Abdillahi Yusuf , the head of the exiled Somali government, is lobbying hard to Lebanonize Somalia by introducing foreign troops from neighboring countries into Somalia. The colonel, his supporters, as well as all Somalis should ponder the following facts about foreign intervention in Lebanon:

 

1- When the Israelis entered Lebanon to crush the Palestinians, the Shias were so happy that the Palestinians were being kicked out of Lebanon, they met invading Israeli troops with flowers. Later, Shiites became the mortal enemies of Israel and they remain so until today. Similarly, Syrian troops first entered the Lebanese civil war on the side of the Christians, today most Christians view Syria as their enemy.

 

2- Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon turned out to be such a liability that it repeatedly offered to arrange its withdrawal with Hizbullah, and when the latter refused, Israel was reduced to withdrawing unilaterally. Israel’s evacuation gave Hizbullah’s reputation a significant boost. Hizbullah still touts this Israeli withdrawal as the only Arab victory against Israel.

 

3- Syria’s intervention was supposed to put an end to the civil war, instead Syria ended up staying until now under various pretexts, mainly that the Lebanese government wants it to stay. Diplomatic pressure from the United States and France, plus UN Security Council resolution 1559 have so far failed to evict Syria from Lebanon.

 

4- In theory, Syrian troops were supposed to be part of a larger peace keeping force from several Arab countries, but in reality, Syrian troops became the only Arab troops stationed in Lebanon and have been acting as if they were a permanent occupation force.

 

The most relevant point of the Lebanese case for Somalia, is that if the United States and France are having such a hard time getting Syria out of Lebanon, what are the realistic chances for forcing Ethiopia or other neighboring countries out of Somalia, once they enter it and show no inclination of leaving on their own. Since such chances are practically nil, and since there are many other important reasons for not sending foreign troops into Somalia, the African Union should not dispatch foreign troops to that country. “Somalization†or the “Somali syndrome†is already bad enough for Somalia. It does not need Lebanonization on top of that.

[NGONGE]

The most relevant point of the Lebanese case for Somalia, is that if the United States and France are having such a hard time getting Syria out of Lebanon, what are the realistic chances for forcing Ethiopia or other neighboring countries out of Somalia, once they enter it and show no inclination of leaving on their own. Since such chances are practically nil, and since there are many other important reasons for not sending foreign troops into Somalia, the African Union should not dispatch foreign troops to that country. “Somalization†or the “Somali syndrome†is already bad enough for Somalia. It does not need Lebanonization on top of that.

The problem that the United States & France (lets just call them the UN Security Council) are having with Syria is one connected with selectivity! Resolution 1559 requires Syria to withdraw all it’s troops from Lebanon (though Syria’s name does not appear in the resolution). It also expects the Lebanese government to dismantle the militant militias (read Hezboallah). It further states that the disputed territories between Lebanon and Israel are really not Lebanese lands but Syrian lands! Syria of course, agrees to withdraw, on principle, but demands equality when enforcing UN resolutions (see resolution 242 requiring Israel to withdraw from Arab lands).

 

The only comparisons one can draw between Somalia and Lebanon is the flimsy argument of foreign troops. The details, circumstances and what’s at stake are not comparable at all.

 

In the case of Lebanon: the UN, the United States, the European Union and the Arab league are all playing an active part and doing their best to conclude the matter to their client (s‘) satisfaction. In Somalia’s case, not even the African Union seems to be that bothered about the Ethiopian/Kenyan driven initiative to resolve the Somali problem.

 

The Lebanese problem stems from the fact that Lebanon and Syria are still the only Arab countries that neighbour Israel, which have not (yet) signed peace deals with that country! The rumours resulting from the recent killing of the former Lebanese Prime Minster allude to the idea that he was lobbying his government to finally recognise Israel and sign a peace deal (the logic being that the border dispute has been resolved with resolution 1559 - see above). Those accusing Syria of organising his murder use this argument as Syria’s motive for his killing!

 

 

Israel has already invaded and occupied Lebanon once. It realises that repeating such a move is futile but it wants to secure it’s own borders and forever silence the menace of Hizbullah; what better than resolution 1559 to help it reach those ends without the loss of one reservist? Syria on the other hand, needs Hizbullah to pester and bother the Jewish State and knows that if it withdraws its troops from Lebanon, Hizbullah will be forced to lay down its weapons. The consequences of Lebanon recognising the Jewish State will leave Syria as the only country that does not recognise Israel and is likely to marginalise its influence in the region! The stakes are very high.

 

Now compare and contrast that situation to the case of Somalia! All these newspaper (website) editors seem to suffer from delusions of grandeur. One day it’s the Balkanisation of Somalia and the next it’s the Lebanisation of Somalia! They try very hard to draw parallels with graver, more complicated and starkly different events to feed the reactionary mindset of their readership and avoid dealing with their true worries.

 

The editorship of The Somaliland Times would have been better off covering the story from a Somaliland point of view and attempting to, honestly discuss the consequences or implications of these troops entering Somalia. This type of reactionary drivel that they churn out looks and sounds good, but the stink it tries to induce is far from nice.

[LANDER]

I do agree with you Ngonge that the Lebanese comparison is a little far fetched, however one small part of your strategic analysis I think is a little skewed pertaining to these middle east land squabbles. I would agree with you on almost every point, except where I believe you under-estimate the role of Hezbollah as a significant and legitimate player in the geo-politics of this region. There is a reason why the so-called government of Lebanon was never really adamant until now to see the Syrian troops leave. Even today I think they say a few words in public to quell the popular support for the withdrawal of Syrian troops but behind closed doors, I’m sure they march to a different beat. The reason for that is somewhat simple, if the Syrian troops leave, Hezbollah becomes the most power military section within Lebanese society and the government would have a lot of trouble trying to dictate terms to this group who already controls most of Southern Lebanon. Also, a Syrian withdrawal could lead to sectarian and possibly once again religious fighting within the country.

 

As for you alluding to Somaliland and the Foreign Troops issue, I do wonder what consequences you refer to with respect to Somaliland since I fail to notice any consequences for Somaliland if foreign troops where to enter Somalia.

The editorship of The Somaliland Times would have been better off covering the story from a Somaliland point of view and attempting to, honestly discuss the consequences or implications of these troops entering Somalia

[NGONGE]

In the case of Hizbuallah, I’m not at all belittling their importance in this situation. As I’ve already mentioned, one part of resolution 1559 calls for the dismantling of militant militias in Lebanon! What other militias exist in that country apart from Hizbuallah? Another part of the resolution finally solves the disputed issue of borders between Lebanon and Israel. Surprisingly enough, these borders are the ones that Hizbuallah has been fighting the Israelis for since the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000. By having a UN resolution that recognises these lands as Syrian lands Hizbuallah’s reasons for continuing the fight are instantly wiped out! The third and most important part of the resolution calls for the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Again, with the withdrawal of Hizbuallah’s biggest sponsor, the party will be vulnerable to attacks by an internationally supported government of Lebanon! (Incidentally, the report stipulates that the government of Lebanon should have full control over all its territories. No need to guess which territories these may be). With Syria out of the picture, someone else is bound to fill the vacuum left by its withdrawal. It’s very unlikely to be Hizbuallah though (no supporters or sponsors anymore). The issue of civil war is also unlikely. The killing of the former Prime Minster seems to have united most people against Syria (not yet against president Lahuud). The Sunnis, Druz and some Christian factions are all demanding Syrian withdrawal. The Shia (Hizbuallah) and those with the president are still hedging their bets but the signs are they’re likely to give in to the mounting pressure. The ball now is in Syria’s court and all depends on her next move. So far, that country has been playing the waiting game and promising to withdraw its troops.

 

 

Your question regarding Somaliland puzzles me a little, saaxib! These foreign troops are likely to be mainly Ethiopian troops. They are entering a country that, until recently, Somaliland was part of (in fact, if we’re being honest and apply international definitions, Somaliland is still part of Somalia). The bulk of these troops are likely to be made of soldiers of a neighbouring country that those in Somaliland consider an ally! Again, this should at least raise a few eyebrows methinks!

 

The mission of these troops is to help the government of Mr Cabdullahi Yusuf take control of Somalia. Is a strong and peaceful Somalia good or bad for Somaliland? After all, at best, it can be viewed as a neighbour and at worst, it can be viewed as a danger to the sovereignty of Somaliland.

 

Instead of the Somaliland Times wasting its time talking about Lebanon or Somalia, as far away lands (especially in the case of the latter), it really should have looked after its readership’s best interests and tried to analyse the situation from a Somaliland standpoint. After all, the Somalia of Cabdullahi Yusuf is not in the Middle East or Las Vegas, saaxib. It’s right inside your beloved Somaliland; it’s in Laas Caanod.

[General Duke]

Instead of the Somaliland Times wasting its time talking about Lebanon or Somalia, as far away lands (especially in the case of the latter), it really should have looked after its readership’s best interests and tried to analyse the situation from a Somaliland standpoint. After all, the Somalia of Cabdullahi Yusuf is not in the Middle East or Las Vegas, saaxib. It’s right inside your beloved Somaliland; it’s in Laas Caanod.

Good point indeed.

[Garyaqaan2]

Instead of the Somaliland Times wasting its time talking about Lebanon or Somalia, as far away lands (especially in the case of the latter), it really should have looked after its readership’s best interests and tried to analyse the situation from a Somaliland standpoint. After all, the Somalia of Cabdullahi Yusuf is not in the Middle East or Las Vegas, saaxib. It’s right inside your beloved Somaliland; it’s in Laas Caanod.

 

 

NGONGE

sxb waxaa jirta maah maah soomaaliyeed oo dhaheesa " Runta dadka way ka nixisaa" And that is exactly what you doing.

 

It deosn't got more accurat then this It’s right inside your beloved Somaliland; it’s in Laas Caanod

 

waxaa anigu dhihilahaa waqooyeland riyada ka baxa.

[Fyr]

The similarity between Syria and Ethiopia is quite remarkable. Both countries are ruled by minorities, in the case of Syria “Alawite†which is some kind of Shi’a branch. And in Ethiopia we have the Amhara and Tigre coalition which is a minority obviously.

 

Both Syria and Ethiopia have common interest in neighbouring country. Syria is anxious about leaving Lebanon, because if they leave the “Bekaa Vallyâ€â€ it would provide Israel the best route for an invasion on Damascus. And it has historical claims on some parts of Lebanon. Some might even say “Syria has economical interest in Lebanon†for what ever reasons Syria has it will not leave until an external force arrives.

 

No one in Lebanon gets to be Prime Minister or President without Syria’s approval. They always reward the Christians with the Persistency and the Prime minister to the Sunnis and the speaker of the legislature to a Shi'a.

 

One of Syria’s pretexts for staying is that it accuses the Lebanese government of not implementing all of the constitutional reforms in the Ta'if Accord.

 

What ever interest Ethiopia has in Somalia it will continue to stay in Somalia for what every pretext it has. They will choose which leader to be elected just as they have done now, they will support different factions just like they are doing right now and just like Syria is supporting different fictions in Lebanon.

 

And if the international community start asking why Ethiopia still there, they will throw the terror card, or who knows they might sign some kind of agreement with the current government on when they can leave and use that to stay further just like in Lebanon.

 

 

Instead of the Somaliland Times wasting its time talking about Lebanon or Somalia, as far away lands (especially in the case of the latter), it really should have looked after its readership’s best interests and tried to analyse the situation from a Somaliland standpoint. After all, the Somalia of Cabdullahi Yusuf is not in the Middle East or Las Vegas, saaxib. It’s right inside your beloved Somaliland; it’s in Laas Caanod.

The Somaliland Times doesn’t have to analysis the situations form a Somaliland point of view because it doen't concern us politically.

 

The Somaliland Times in case of the editorial article, it has a Somali standpoint. We may not be in the same country, but we are still Somalis and for that the editorial has a Somali standpoint. The readers might be Somalilanders but they are still ethnic Somalis. The Somaliland Times doesn’t always have to have a Somaliland perspective it can have a Somali standpoint too. He is a Somali just like his readers.

[rudy-Diiriye]

ppl u forgetting that foreign troops had already been there and split like the wind!! what! yall already forgot that part!!

 

now u entertaining bringing african troops there! what a joke!! gimme a break!!

 

only solution i say 4 us! dump current warlords bring ppl on the table who r real nationalist folks who care about somalis! not yesterday's dictator dhabo dhilifs who some how woke up from a bad hang over and think that they can lead the ppl!!

 

amiin!!