Northern Alliance in Somalia!

[xiinfaniin]

Remember them those Afghanis who tailgated American victors in the recent Afghan war! Picture them warlords as they entered town after town on the heels of American tanks and erected their dirty flags and chanted with victory songs! I see some parallels here in Somalia to that of the Afghan warlords! Although this time the victor is camouflaged with Ethiopian military uniforms, still it remains the same. The warlords though different in many ways remain clueless as the ones who headed NA in Afghanistan.

 

Many of us got it wrong as to what the level of American commitment to this war was. We thought that we were facing Ethiopia and its third-rated weaponry! We calculated we could beat them hands down, and in the process eliminate its trusted lackeys in Baydhabo. Wrong, we were. It was not Ethiopia who did the fighting and faced those brave Somali sons. It was America who delivered the final bunch that exacted a depressing setback to the ICU’s fighting force! It’s however a setback. One can only defeat men but not ideology and creed. ICU represented a political ideology based on Islam. And it will come again. What happened in the recent fights are lessons learned.

 

Now our Northern Alliance, as I hinted, are from the shallow end of the gene pool. Especially the elderly man who heads them is. Devoid of any sort of a political vision, the man is indeed a shameless character who would try anything to attain his political objectives. Simply put, for him means justify the goal. But this time, the grave he dug is a bit too deep---may he be the first to fall in it! Now there could be three scenarios from this latest reshuffle.

 

 

1- Ethiopia reduces it military presence in the south (concentrates on the access points, i.e. harbors and main airports), establishes Geedi as a strong man in the Mogadishu, reconciles Geedi’s clan with their main rival clan in the city and gets a permanent foothold in the south. I say this the most likely outcome.

2- Ethiopia wises up, withdraws its troops, and the world comes in with cash and rebuilds Somalia and puts it back on its feet. Unlikely outcome.

3- Ethiopia stays on and other African troops send troops to disarm Somalis as the old man wants and clannish mistrust deepens and the era of warlords commences afresh!

 

In the meantime, and independent of above listed scenarios, Islamism grows and deepens with a hardened view about this world and what it stands for. The sons of the Somali sahwah will develop a realistic military strategy and sit it out and wait when a new opportunity presents it self and they will strike very hard. NA on the other hand will prove itself to be, well as Castro puts it, a doorknob!

[RedSea]

^ I fully agree.These people have their own corrupt political interests whom some have fallen for.The set back that the ICU has suffered has misled some to believe that Everything will just be o right after the ouster of our shining star,the ICU.As you superbly painted in the last paragraph,we must all expect a unity in the hearts and souls of the ordinary somalis everwhere after witnessing the humilation and naked aggression of Tigray regime in Addis into somali territory,especially our landmark city of Xamar.The hall of shamers will regret this in many days to come,and the ICU with more support from the somali than ever before will make a comeback insha Allah tacalaa and yes indeed strike deep and hard.Some may think this isn't impossible,but who dares to question the Xaq ku dirir,the blood of the ordinary has risen.Impossible is for dulmi to privail over Xaq.

 

Stay tuned Insha Allahu Tacalaa,this could be a turning point in somali history as we have already seen an ugly header of it,good will follow,as Allah said "inamacal cusri Yusraa" ease will follow difficulty.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Indeed Islamic movement will be back! These sorts of setbacks are expected when one sets out to do what the Courts attempted to do. Such is the nature of what we desire yaa Redka! You see the Ethiopian supporters (their claim that they Somalia to come back is an insult to our intelligence) in this site will soon find out what the real game is. No matter how hard one tries to minimize the significance of Ethiopian presence in Mogadishu, it is next to impossible for this to be a charity act from Ethiopia. They have their agenda, and quite ironically their agenda may help Islamist cause and enhance Courts credibility.

 

The dilemma to avoid this is just problematic that I don’t see them having easy way out of this. They will have to maintain a number of troops in the name of pursuing the remnants of the Courts and that alone is enough to show the warlord supporters for what they are!

[Castro]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

1- Ethiopia reduces it military presence in the south (concentrates on the access points, i.e. harbors and main airports), establishes Geedi as a strong man in the Mogadishu, reconciles Geedi’s clan with their main rival clan in the city and gets a permanent foothold in the south. I say this the most likely outcome.

2- Ethiopia wises up, withdraws its troops, and the world comes in with cash and rebuilds Somalia and puts it back on its feet. Unlikely outcome.

3- Ethiopia stays on and other African troops send troops to disarm Somalis as the old man wants and clannish mistrust deepens and the era of warlords commences afresh!

There's no withdrawing Ethiopian troops, Xiinow. Invasions (then occupations) are not weekend outings and this one is financed by the great uncle Sam. Have you not read what Gaildon said in the quote below?

 

I'll go with number 3 in your list.

[xiinfaniin]

Agreed! In # 2, I was just sugarcoating it and setting up a snare for the doorknobs (normally I am civil and courteous, but the term you coined is hard to resist) of this site!

 

 

I think it would be option # 1 and as we speak the recruitment has started! Geedi will follow old man steps to gain the trust of Ethiopia. He is loyal and young but what he lacks is a supportive base like the old man has. Old man’s advantage was that he was not only loyal to Ethiopia but he also maintained a political base that’s receptive to his and Ethiopia’s plans. Geedi with the help of Ethiopia will do the same, I say. Mogadishu is very significant not only to Ethiopia but to many in the west, and if Ethiopia gets a foothold by satisfying political ambitions of the major tribal groupings who call it home today, we are indeed in a new era yaa Castro! Of course good Somalis would plan and sketch a parallel plan to dislodge Ethiopia from their soil.

[Duufaan]

indeed, there is similarity but than taliban = court and the Taliban movement never made any come back.The court is history and will not come back any soon.

 

The clan court never made transition from local to national level and they had number of warlods in their rank. The clan fighters was not commited to fight advanced ethiopian. They made tactical mistake after tactical mistake. they also give up early. They retreated from moqdisho to Kismaanyo?

 

You maybe have right for Geedi but the Old man want run the show by himself and his more experienced. The ethiopian made mistake also, there is no easy way out. They would rather maintain their comfortable tactics but this it will not be easy.

 

The likely outcome.

1) Puntland extention ( weak clan goverment)

2) moqdisho warlods return

[xiinfaniin]

^^^Taliban are back saaxiib, and so will Courts men!

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Albert Einstein once definedd insanity as doing the same thing but expecting different results. Do you not see that under this defination, some of you here are insane. You have predected the downfall of the Somali government and were proven wrong so why do you continue with it. We thought this and that is just not good enough. be good sportsmen and give a rest and admit that your beloved terrorist have been defeated for good and will never return. did you not hear that they shaved their beards before the government intered the capital.

[xiinfaniin]

Oh dear never do you know that shaving beards could be a tactical move that could indeed serve as a means to reach specific objectives including, but not limited to, trapping Ethiopian troops in the capital. If there were predictions made about the fall of this government then only a fool would need a proof of it when it’s quite apparent that there is no government to speak of today. Unless of course riding Ethiopian tanks substitute government authority.

 

ps: What say you about the premature revelations as what hatched plans are for future Somali/Ethiopian relationship yaa NN ?

[Jacpher]

NN: Insanity is accusing people what you've no proof of. Don't go around charging people of something you can't provide evidence for.

 

Xiinoow, I prefer Nothern Alliance in a heart beat. They were crediable to their constituents and not ready to sell the land for pennies.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Agreed! Kuweena wax ka liita malaha yaa Jimcaale!

[Khalaf]

Xiin,

 

The ICU does no wrong in your eyes? Wala wa yaab..................the main reason TFG is opposed is that people c the clan of Abduallahi Yusuf .........I gurantee with same actions of the TFG but the leader being the clan of the south loyalties would switch,...somalis worship clan adeer not Allah Most Great.....thus true islam rising in somalia is not a political reality anytime soon.

 

Two, give the old man a little credit, he was elected in 2004, for two years he stayed in Baideo peacefully... war i la hadla, lets come to table and talk, survived an assaination attempt on his life.......and doesn’t want ethiopain troops but international troops to stabilize the country and take guns away from all the militias.....but even if he was a saint ppl wouldnt trust him because he is not their clansman! Two odayga built Puntland......and even between close kinship of reer puntland u are aware of the power struggles and bloodsheed..........what hope is there for all of somalia? Only Islam or a dictarship but for islam to rise jahilnimo of somalis most be defeated u only do that by following the nabi scw (educate) not by force or the gun like the icu!

 

with that said i dont think the true believers in the icu will give up this fight........but you need popular support which can only come with an open masscure and oppression of somalis by outsiders (unlikely to happen) or the somali populace become islamized-happens with islamic training, education not bullets. In the end the population will support Islam but jahilnimo most go.

[xiinfaniin]

Jahilnimo mus go indeed, adeer! Whatever mistakes icu commited were negligible in my eyes given thier genuineness in resurrecting somalia from its near death. We can go back in time and debate about the past but today you have individuals who brought amxaaro to crush thier own people.

 

You need to speak to that yaa Khalaf! Midda kale there is a differnce between liberating your people and ruling and governing them. the function of true muslims in somalia today is the first and not the latter yaa Khalaf!

[Gabbal]

Xaalada siday haatan u taagantahay sow idin kuma haboona inaad ka doodaan?

[General Duke]

These people are still bitter about something. Because in a logical world we know wars cost a great deal, occupation even more. Look at te US, the richest nation on Earth and it is finding it difficult to be in Iraq, an oil rich state.

 

Now they want us to belive , little poor Ethiopia can sustain a long term occupation of Somalia, the poorest on Earth.

 

Taking into account, Somalia being a soverign nation, hostile. Also the Adis regime has said it over, and over gain it will leave in matter of weeks.

 

What information, evidance do you have to back up these claims, you keep making?

 

Or are you using the same logic that made you belive that the Clan Courts would be able to defeat the TFG and Ethiopia a few weeks back?