Somalia - it ain't over yet, or for years

[Jacpher]

So Ethiopia's conventional army is defeating the Islamic Court Union's militia in the field. What a surprise. Not.

 

Months ago when it first became clear that a confrontation between Ethiopia and the ICU was brewing I noted that the ICU couldn't stand up to a conventional army. What I also noted is that it didn't matter - neither Ethiopia nor the internationally impossed interim Somali government have any popular support in Somalia. So what will happen is a guerilla war. And it will be exceptionally savage because the Ethiopians will fight it savagely as well as the ICU - they will depopulate entire villages, engage in retaliation killings and so on.

 

Ironically the very thing that Ethiopia wanted to avoid - its own Somalis getting uppity, is now more likely to happen than ever. And the very thing the US wanted to avoid - al-Qa'eda having a power base in Somalia will happen for sure because other than Eritrea the ICU has no other possible allies.

 

There's going to be more good news for Ethiopia for some time. But since they don't have an occupation military large enough to occupy and pacify all of Somalia I have a hard time seeing that this is going to turn out well for them in the long run. And what it will do, guaranteed, is further radicalize the ICU.

 

Ethiopia isn't going to "win" this war in any useful sense unless they're smart enough to end it relatively soon and force some sort of treaty. If they go the distance they will bleed and bleed and bleed.

 

Source

 

[Taliban]

Originally posted by Jimcaale:

Ironically the very thing that Ethiopia wanted to avoid - its own Somalis getting uppity, is now more likely to happen than ever. And the very thing the US wanted to avoid - al-Qa'eda having a power base in Somalia will happen for sure because other than Eritrea the ICU has no other possible allies.

Indeed. Just as how the US is regretting its blunder in Iraq, Ethiopia will regret its adventure in Somalia, insha'Allah.

[Alle-ubaahne]

^^That is right, the coming of Jab iyo Naaso-beel is facing the enemy as a gift from the Mujaahideen of Somalia.

 

They will die and make somalia their graveyards, insha-Allah.