Round dirrin discussion on the nomad politiking

[Baashi]

At issue is the clan congress currently under way in Benadir.

 

I advocated for convening such gathering. Some nomads dismissed it as TFG scheme to secure legitimacy.

 

I don't have the agenda and I heard, through grapevine of course, that the two main rivals are not even part of the dialogue.

 

I'm back at it and I would like to engage a discussion with all of you. I would like to prove you wrong and show you why this gathering is very important.

 

Where is Xiin, Castro, Oodweyne et al? I assume you are all of the opinion that this conference is a farce. Come out and challenge me fellaz. Shah is on me I know y'all stingy so no worries it is free.

 

Anyone?

[xiinfaniin]

Welcome back yaa Baashe!

 

Very important indeed but for whom adeer? For Somalis? Or for tfg & Ethiopia?

 

Tfg staked much on this conference. But it got the basics wrong. If you think this gathering is any thing but a mere political maneuvering from the top boys of this entity, you owe me some enlightenment on this issue adeer!

 

To say it's a farce is understatement Baashow!

 

Shinbirayahow heesa,

Hesa heesa heease,

Hees wanaagsan heese

Halkan soo fariista oo kaalaya hortayda

 

La dur-duri Baashow.

[Jacpher]

^Shinbirayaaloow heesa would be understatement. It was every kids favorite song.

 

This gathering is a hoax to the Somali populace and lacks the capability of producing anything but puts evil warlords in power. Not all parties are involved, not all the core issues of the conflict are included in the agenda or even open for discussion. It reminds me of the movie What about Bob where Dr. Leo calls for family conference and dismisses in a second. The elders deserve the credit for tying and risking their lives in hostile place but at the end of the day, their effort would seem to have made no difference.

 

Waxaan maqli jiray Carrab alif aan toosin al-baqra ma gaaro.

[Baashi]

Haye raggu ma bigeys baa mise waa chai latte *smile*

 

Spill the beans Xiin and you Jimcaale as well. Are you guys saying this one is a farce? is that what I'm hearing from you?

 

Will explain my take on this in a minute but gotta get the sequences right first!

 

Just to throw you off what I'm saying is this one is extremely important for the opposition. Don't get preplexed I will put my cards on the table but before I do that tell me this: assuming that you are for dialogue to settle the conflict, where would be a neutral place for the gathering? Simple question!

[N.O.R.F]

^^Burco!

[Liqaye]

^^^^

Burco lol.

 

Hi brother baashi attempting to be the voice of reason as ever salaam.

 

Read my post on jiimcales thread I can not repeat it maybe it is a good starting point

[miles-militis]

Bashow - Allow me to briefly summarise in a passage.

- It is the best hope for the destitute lads and lasses on the ground (I know ney-sayers overlook this small factor).

- It shall serve a death warrant for the already fading opposition should they insist on boycotting the conference thereby remaining in the periphery [note the clause in here].

- It is "nirig hal xaaran ahi, nirig xalaal ah ma dhasho" for the ney-sayers in the Diaspora --- check Xiin and Co will have nothing to disassemble, no one to vilify, no idol to worship, no nubiles to beguile, no Gustavo to gut, no more Islamism in the horizon [‘geeri & geeri go’an iga dheh’ for them] – a non-starter!

- It is a new lease of life for the TFG and its proponents. It legitimises TFG's position as the nation's government.

 

Adigu feeno lafta inteeda kale!.

 

Staging the NRC in Mogadishu, state capital though teething with security challenges, has underpinning political significance, one which could not be underscored.

 

Tata…

[Jacpher]

How about Kissima?

 

The only obstacle is to get Hiiraale on the payroll or delegate the task to his former boss Ina-Qaasim Salaad.

 

Seriously, the gathering place should have been numero uno on the list. Forget about EU & UN for a sec and focus on what is it that’s needed this conference to accomplish? I think Kismaayo would have been a better alternative if TFG & its military might want the gathering to yield tangible results. I don't even think NRC is the correct word choice to describe this futile gathering.

 

Gotta run for Khutba.

[ElPunto]

^Take it away Baashi. It would be interesting to hear your opinion on what should be changed and what errors need to be corrected at this meeting.

[NGONGE]

I never for a minute thought that this conference was going to fail. For the simple fact that there is no other acceptable rivals to the TFG. The handful of people in Asmara can flail about all they like but not unless (and until) they organise themselves politically and offer a more attractive opposition could they really derail the big flood that is the TFG. Having said that, and to stay with the theme of flooding, I'll repeat my claim that, eventually, the TFG will drown in their very own vomit.

 

(that ambassadorship of Peru looms ever closer methinks).

[xiinfaniin]

Baashi---The venue of this conference is not important really.

 

The conference itself is a failure from reconciliation perspective; whether delegates stay put amid Mogadishu’s terrifying violence will in the end mean nothing for the Somali people. The fact those who are fighting tfg and Ethiopian forces in Xamar boycotted it deems the whole thing, as one Somali commentator put it, a badly composed theatrical.

 

Miyeeysan Somalidu inay wada hadlaan dani ku jirin, you may ask! Absolutely! Odoyaal masaakiin waa lasoo shirin karaa. Waxay oran lahaayeen waa loo meerin karaa. Laakiin Baashow xareed aan cirka ka iman dhulka lagama cabbo, as the Somali sayings goes! Haddii nimankani nabad rabaanna ha tixgeliyeen codsiyadda mucaaradkoodu soo jeediyey hana oofiyeen shuruudaha macquulka ee lagu xiray, the cardinal one being Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Somalia. Who’s going to keep the peace if Ethiopia withdraws is a legit q? We can discuss that but before that one needs to concede that point, namely as long Ethiopia is on Somali soil peace will remain elusive and afar! Midda kale, there is an element of justice that’s missing from the whole thing, and without it our conflict will only deepen!

 

I also find quite trivial to talk about the success of this shir for we know people who gathered there inaysan ahayn dadka colaadu ka dhaxayso…we also know that agendaha laga hadlayyo inuusan siyaasad shuqul ku lahayn…what are the challenges before this conference that its supposed to resolve in order for us to merit it success or failure. There is none! If tfg gets enough delegates in that venue, feeds them and shelters them, tries to keep them safe from the mortars, by tgs standards, the conference succeeds, and it will declare it as such! Is that it yaa Baashi?

[Baashi]

Super. Two more nomads I would love to read their considered opinion are Castro and Nur. Having read their posts on the subject, it is safe to say that had they shared their two cents, they too would have made the case against the gathering on the grounds that a national reconciliation moderated by one side of the conflict, guarded by Habasha/TFG forces, and attended by clan representatives who have no militia to command, no authority to exercise, and no power to force a change in direction or purpose will not achieve the desirable goal. Therefore, I concluded that Xiin, Liqaye, Oodweyne, Castro, and Ngonge are somewhat on the same page as far as the outcome of this particular gathering is concerned.

 

On the other hand, Samurai seems to be residing at the end of the spectrum. It is not clear to me if he is of the opinion that the outcome of this conference in its present format will make any difference in the political situation of the country. Samurai is clear however, and Ngonge seems to agree, that from the big picture perspective the TFG as coherent political institution (somewhat) is a force to reckon with; with no counterweight on the horizon.

 

Now I am sure if the discussion proceeds forward a la akhyaar style (ahem! perhaps our resident Burcaawi my cyber pal Mr. Oodweyne can be persuaded to go easy on marqaan and focus on the ball and not on the players. Awoowe will make sure that all participants get their fill of caffeine. No dopamine is available in this dirrin...kaftan aan turxaan lahayn uga har awoowe) As I was saying if discussion proceeds in that direction and if making flawed logic is avoided (check ur line of reasoning before posting plz) I bet we'll reach the same conclusion and that is the outcome of this congress (in its present format) will be inconclusive and in the end nothing good will come out of it. Hence, I suggest we safe time and energy on this score as I agree with whoever makes that point. Likewise, the TFG's intention to see itself standing in the post-conflict era as a potent political force is crystal clear. Let us give a pass on that one as well.

 

Instead, let us see if we can agree on four basic points (will list in a minute), and once we assure ourselves that we are on the same wavelength on the basics, then and only then will I put my cards on the table. I will try to explain myself to the best of my abilities and if anyone of you finds holes in my line of thought, I will readily concede. If we do that, I think we will have contributed something valuable to this forum. I will warn you ahead of time if that were to happen, namely several nomads with different background, with different tribal affiliation adhering to different political persuasions and leading separate lives in the Second Life on the virtual jungle, my monthly magazine Waa Siday Tahay will sport a big bold headline: There's hope for Somalis - in Qurbaha! Not to mention the right wing gossipy Waxa-la-Yiri news will editorialize this discussion along the lines: Islamists, Nationalists, Unionists, Separatists, Tribalists, Detached and Cynics have made a temporary pact to lend their ear to each other!

 

Waa tahay. Let me table four basic premises for your consideration. 1) National level dialogue is the only way out of this prolonged conflict. I will add to that the rigidity of 'no-negotiation' attitude a la 'no negotiating with daba-dhilifs; no-negotiating with terrorists' will only serve as an obstacle to systematic exploration of how best to conduct a neutral and inclusive national-level negotiation. 2) Contestants: opposing wing of H tribe leaders with UIC leaders, Coalition of diverse clans that this TFG is believed to be made up, Gedo clan, clans that are sitting on the fence waiting the outcome of the current contest between the first two, and recovery zones up north must be willing to compromise on their stated goals so that the chance of them becoming constructive interlocutors is high. I will add to that the violence we have heard through the news does not advance the ball and in a sense is a perverted form of self-realization. 3) The leaders representing different sides at the dirrin must be able to control its rank and file. 4) Foreign intervention must not interfere in the reconciliation dialogue.

 

Let me hear if what I outlined in the above paragraph is practical benchmarks that can be used to determine both the credibility of participants and the neutrality of the congress.

 

Despite my criticism of how the gathering has been organized, managed, and the fact that parties that matter are not at the dirrin, still I support the current gathering for I have different perspective on the big picture! I also said this gathering is extremely important to the opposition!! Well I still stand by that statement and I bet once I spell out my reasoning of making that statement, most of you will come around and join me in supporting this process. Now I am not going to reveal my hand until we agree on the basics I have outlined above (I'm open for modifications). I have to note that the need for some sort of government however imperfect is absolutely necessary - period.

 

Before I ran out of ink let me remind all of us what the outcome of any successful national-level reconciliation should look like. At the conclusion of the gathering, the following will have happened:

 

1. TFG and other political forces are reconciled.

2. Parties agree what just and inclusive government with broad domestic support will look like.

3. The newly formed government gets real and tangible donor and international political support.

4. Inclusive and independent committee takes on the difficult task of disarmament.

5. Security in Benadir improves significantly.

6. The newly formed government endorses the deployment of AMISOM and/or UN forces (minus Ethiopians).

7. Troop contributions and funding are sufficient for it to be effective.

8. Congress announces a firm date for Ethiopian forces' withdrawal.

9. Congress agrees to bring in Islamists in drafting a permanent constitution.

10. Congress makes a progress in putting Somaliland/Puntland dispute to bed.

11. The new TFG, Puntland and Somaliland make progress in agreeing a practical federal arrangement.

12. Somalis move to post-conflict era

 

Ku durduria!

[rudy-Diiriye]

hello, i think we losing the the big pic... this country is under occupation by its enemy..!

 

Yeey and his theatre is sham is not gonna last, cuz u know and i know, not everybody is invited to this round table. THE MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES ARE NOT THERE!!

 

Besides, whats the point of holding a political meeting between fighting clans in the lions den with guns pointed at THEM.

 

u know who is gonna show up there! only tugs and afmiishars. IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN HELD IN NEUTRAL CITY LIKE CAIRO AND EVERYBODY INVITED.

 

this meeting is a show! and really bad one... it aint gonna do nothing for somali ppl..!

[Allamagan]

I wonder what kinda people expecting if anything will ever come out of this so-called reconciliation thing? There will be no final peace deal (solution) reached there as long as these stooges have amhaaro and also the amhaaros still fiddling somali affairs.

[Baashi]

Mr. Oodweyne,

 

The heart of the argument is arguably the security. And here you have chicken-egg sort of a situation. AU and UN want to see tangible political progress in Benadir before they deploy their troops in Somalia. UIC and one side of H tribe wants Ethiopians to vacate Benadir prior reaching deal on the political front. TFG wants to have its security guaranteed in the event Ethiopians vacate Benadir. This is not an easy problem to tackle.

 

Another problem is sinister machination of both sides of the conflict. One wing of H tribe has lost the control of large swath of the South including Benadir. It is no secret that they would rather have no progress in any area be reconciliation, security, and political front until their political fortunes improve one way or another. Inclusive government of national unity means nothing to them without economic and political base to bargain with. Remember these are clans who have sacrificed so much in blood in order to claim stake in fertile land.

 

Likewise, TFG wants to present itself as the locus where each and every clan is represented while the truth is that TFG is essentially a vehicle for two influential clans who made a pact to help themselves emerge as political power houses in the post conflict era. These two clans have suffered at the hands of the other side and they are not in the mood of relinquishing power to their nemesis.

 

In addition to these undercurrents you have clans who are sitting on the fence. They endorse TFG in principle but they are not helping in its effort to finish off the opposition.

 

On top of that all international political and donor support are conditioned on making progress in political front.

 

Given the complicated situation on the ground and the numerous layers of interests, one has to consider the big picture and what failure means to the future of Somalia and Somalis. After all developments in this year will arguably shape the course of events in the coming years.

 

It is stalemate. While the ongoing conference won't tackle the political issues of importance, it will serve as an ice-breaker kind of start. There is no harm in having tribal representative talking about clan grievances. It is beyond me why would one object to that.

 

Moreover, at the conclusion of this convention, the political questions will remain unaddressed and hence the status quo will be where it is at today. That's not good for the TFG and it will lose face with international actors who bought the line that few spoilers with terrorist leaning will not stop the masses' desire to have government restoring normalcy.

 

With that background let me answer some of your questions. First of the agenda. Awoowe you won't have an agreed document where every T is crossed and I is dotted. As to guarantor that have teeth to implement whatever is agreed that would be the AMISOM/UN and its mandate is limited to provide security; nonetheless that mandate can be expanded by the participants. As regard to mediators, this is supposed to be a process owned by Somalis so in that sense there will be no third party unless one or both of the contesting side demand it. The venue can be negotiated and its not a big deal even though it would be perfect to hold it in Benadir for historical reasons.

 

You have to concede that an agreement can't be reached on the four points you've listed unless the parties start talking in preliminary meetings before official congress convenes.