Ethiopia, TFG likely to derail the Djabuuti peace accord.

[RedSea]

Thursday, July 03, 2008

 

The analysis in post D'jibouti agreement between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia failed to address potential obstacles to the peace agreement that would cause its failures. Most of these analysis focused mainly on one party to the conflict and failed to critically examine all sides of the conflict by merely putting emphasis on the emerging cleavage and widening philosophical differences between the leadership within the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia; that is whether their disagreement is recipe for the complete collapse of the agreement before its implementation begins. By viewing the Accord through the lens of one perspective, fails to objectively examine the overall accord.

 

In this essay I will try to present a different analysis as a rejoinder to these perspectives by examining all sides of the conflict including Ethiopia and Eritrea as outside spoilers and potential catalysts for the failure of this peace agreement, as well as present some suggestions to counter these obstacles. It’s noteworthy to highlight that I am a proponent of this Accord, yet skeptical about its success and very concerned about some of the provisions in the agreement.

 

Many of the write-up in the aftermath of the D’jibouti agreement expressed optimism yet unfairly over-emphasized the disagreement among the Alliance leadership as the likelihood catalyst for the failure of the agreement by spreading defeatist notions before the ink dried up; implying that the Alliance will not deliver what they have agreed to, due to the emerging disagreement among its leadership. In fact this is just a fig leaf intended as a smoke screen for Ethiopia's ambitious dream to prolong its illegal occupation by putting blame squarely on the disagreement between the ARS leadership. In hindsight, when taken into account the following factors, it becomes obvious any violation of the agreement is likely to arise from the TFG/Ethiopian opposition and not as a result of the conflict within the ARS, because the ARS is united in a matter of principle for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops through military or political solution.

 

Ethiopia an outside spoiler

 

As demonstrated by the deeds and actions of Ethiopia in the past, it has always played an outside spoiler in all the past Somali peace agreements and perpetuated the Somali crises for the past 17 years and illegally invaded Somalia on December 2006. In his response to this invasion, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia stated that "Our defense force has been forced to enter a war to defend [against] the attacks from extremists and anti-Ethiopian forces and to protect the sovereignty of the land." This could not be farther from the truth, as Ethiopia has been Somalia's perennial enemy and its desire to cause eternal crisis in Somalia is its chief objective.

 

 

 

As Quincy Wright (1965:2) rightly notes that war can't be said to be occurring when the antagonists do not recognize each other as participants, but see the opponent simply as an obstacle to the achievement of certain goals, as geographical barrier might be. From national security perspective, the Union of Islamic Courts could not pose danger to the sovereignty of Ethiopia as Ethiopia is more than capable to deal with threats from poorly armed militia. Accordingly, stakes are even higher for Ethiopia this time around for the following assumptions and it will utilize every trick in the book to derail the D'jibouti accord to pursue its historic hegemonic interest in the region:

 

 

a) The financial life-line that has been feeding Ethiopia’s regime for the past two years to fight off Islamic threats, real or imagined is likely to be cut off if the D'jibouti Accord is implemented and Ethiopia is forced to withdraw its troops from Somalia.

 

b) There is the likelihood that potential domestic uprising due to food shortage and higher unemployment rates as a result of draughts and Ethiopian government's regressive domestic policies.

 

 

 

c) The power of the puppet government of Mr. Yusuf will be extremely diminished to the extent of any power sharing agreement that arises from the D’jibouti Accord will not serve the interest of Meles Zenawi.

 

 

Moreover, the geopolitical interest of Ethiopia is at play here and wants to keep Somalia in perpetual chaos; a case in point is this open letter titled "ETHIOPIA IS BEING CIRCLED BY ITS ENEMIES" and is addressed to the Ethiopian Diaspora, intellectuals, Ethiopian nationalists and government officials. In it the writer Mr. Tecola W. Hagos of Washington DC urges them to prevent the proposed D’jibouti reconciliation efforts initiated by the head of UNPOS, H.E. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla, and the writer uses religion and nationalism as the basis for his reasoning and why it is obligatory on every Ethiopian citizen to take every step necessary to challenge and oppose Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla’s peace initiative. The writer demonizes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla by tearing apart the envoy's personality and tarnishes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla's report to the UN Security Council and claims the report is "a direct threat to the very existence of Ethiopia".

.pdf"]http://www.tecolahagos.com/Article_UN_Somali_Envoy2[1].pdf

. Subsequently, during the peace process Ethiopia's ambassador in D'jibouti attempted to derail the peace process, and when that failed the feared head of the Ethiopian Intelligence Services in Somalia, Mr. Gabre was dispatched to influence the TFG delegation and as stated by many close observers to the process accepted the agreement when amended to include a provision that will give a face-saving exit to the Ethiopians into the agreement in article Seven section B in which ' the TFG will act in accordance with the decision that has already taken by the Ethiopian Government to withdraw its troops from Somalia after the deployment of a sufficient number of UN forces". As illustrative by the bolded italic, that addition was made to indicate Ethiopia has already made a decision to withdraw, when in fact it was included to meet the demands made by Ethiopia’s Gabre.

 

TFG as an inside spoiler

 

Though Ethiopia failed to wreck the outcome of the D’jibouti Accord to its benefit, its cronies in Baydhabo are at full force to hamper the peace process to serve their masters in Addis Ababa. According to local sources in Baydhabo, parliamentary members closely allied with the Ethiopians are contemplating to introduce a motion to remove the TFG Prime Minister to create political crisis that will bring down his government and open doors to new opportunities to justify Ethiopia’s presence in Somalia for a protracted time and eventually kill the entire peace process. Others including the TFG president are making controversial statements on local radios to discredit the accord by attacking the personalities associated with peace process.

 

Other members of the TFG parliament will oppose simply for their personal interest as they benefit from the war economy and aid and donor money, while they are also concerned about what the uncertain future holds for them.

 

 

 

Recommendations

 

As Sally Healy of Chatham House puts it in her latest report, ‘Ethiopia has become deeply embroiled in Somali politics and has invested too heavily to settle for a quick exit.’ Indeed, the terrorism rhetoric by Meles Zenawi is just a devious ploy and what drives fundamentally its policy is the existing dispute with Eritrea. And this is equally true with respect to Eritrea and that the welcome reception extended for the ARS is not what shapes its policies towards Somalia, but is using the presence of the ARS as bargaining chip to divert international attention from its regressive domestic policies and its border dispute with Ethiopia, a case in point is its opposition to the currently signed D'jibouti Accord. Given these realities, and the fact that both are using Somalia to conduct their dirty proxy war and both have captive audiences that could derail the peace process, it is paramount that following steps are taken concurrently;

 

 

1) The UNPOS must ask the immediate deployment of the UN troops in Mogadishu without any delay and immediately ask the Ethiopian troops to completely withdraw from Somalia. This will give credit to the agreement as opponents of the accord will have less influence to inflame opposition to the deployment of UN troops.

 

2) Support the ongoing dialogue between and within the ARS. While it is also necessary to make the process more inclusive and invite the likes of Sheikh Hassan Aweys as he can influence the military wing of the Alliance and is in a position to woo the Al-shabab wing of the Alliance.

 

3) Pressure Ethiopia not to act as a spoiler to the peace process as it has always done in the past.

 

4) Urge the International Community to support the peace process politically and logistically without any delay as it is regrettable the UN Security Council has not yet discussed the peace agreement and did not pass a resolution with respect to this peace accord.

 

Author info:

 

Abdirizak Omar Mohamed is and independent researcher and a member of Somali Canadian Diaspora Alliance who holds Masters degree in Environmental Studies focusing on post-conflict development from York University, Toronto and can be reached at Email:

abdirizakom@gmail.com

[RedSea]

Watch this vid:

 

Prof. Ibbi was a member of the TFG parliament. He confesses what really went down and who derailed the Khartuom peace agreement.

 

Here is part. 4

[Peace Action]

Red you posted an article that support the Djibouti accord which you oppose. This is what the auther concludes:

 

1) The UNPOS must ask the immediate deployment of the UN troops in Mogadishu without any delay and immediately ask the Ethiopian troops to completely withdraw from Somalia. This will give credit to the agreement as opponents of the accord will have less influence to inflame opposition to the deployment of UN troops.

 

2) Support the ongoing dialogue between and within the ARS. While it is also necessary to make the process more inclusive and invite the likes of Sheikh Hassan Aweys as he can influence the military wing of the Alliance and is in a position to woo the Al-shabab wing of the Alliance.

 

3) Pressure Ethiopia not to act as a spoiler to the peace process as it has always done in the past.

 

4) Urge the International Community to support the peace process politically and logistically without any delay as it is regrettable the UN Security Council has not yet discussed the peace agreement and did not pass a resolution with respect to this peace accord.

 

If the shabaab have any brains they will support this agreement because it will force Ethiopia to withdraw yet they continue their mayhem and have no concern for the long term damage they are causing. If the withdrawl of Ethiopia can be achieved politically why not give it a chance and spare further Somali blooshed.

[RedSea]

^^That is no conclusion, those are 'recomendations' for which were left out in the Jabuuti accord. Which are in exact line with what I also said.

 

Ethiopia and not the TFG has always stood on the way the destrupted any direct talks between somalis.As proven by the former TFG parlamantarian in the vidoe. The Ethiopian army General showed up in Djabuti during the talks,that should send a clear signal that Ethiopian wants to be included in first hand in everything somalis do.

[Peace Action]

Don't back track. The agreement calls for Ethiopia withdrawl in four months to be replaced by UN troops. Exacly what the author wants which you opposed from the get go without much thought. Why don't you support this agreement because you have no long term strategy of resolving the Somali problem and you think shabaab are winning so why sign agreement when you are close to winning.

[RedSea]

^Put forth a legitimate peace accord that includes the withdrawal of ethiopian troops from Somalia unconditionally and without a second of a delay.

 

The article clearly states how the TFG (inside spoiler) and the EThiopians (outside spoiler) are trying to put motion out along to amend anything they may think can end the invasion.

 

They have opt out of the khartuum agreement according to the TFG representives like Professor Ibbi. This could be another one of those.

[Peace Action]

This is a legitimate agreement signed by all parties and endored internationally and four month is not a long time in these can of conflicts. And Ibbi is revising history. Here is what happened, the same lack of forsight as the likes of you are displaying:

 

SOMALIA: SOMALIA: Talks between interim gov't and Islamic group halted

02 Nov 2006 11:39:07 GMT

Source: IRIN

Printable view | Email this article | RSS [-] Text [+]

 

More KHARTOUM, 2 November (IRIN) - Mediators have called off talks between Somalia's transitional government and the Islamic group that is dominant in the south, saying further consultations were needed before the peace process could proceed.

 

The talks, which were due to be held in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, were intended to reconcile Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) with the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).

 

Sources said the main bone of contention was the UIC's demand that Ethiopian troops allegedly deployed in Somalia should withdraw.

 

"It was commonly established and agreed that there is a need for further consultation on both substantive and procedural issues to move the dialogue forward," the mediation team comprising the African Union, League of Arab States, European Union, Organisation of the Islamic Conference, United Nations and the east African regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), said in a combined statement.

 

Amid widespread fears that lack of dialogue could lead to an escalation of violence between the two sides, the mediators urged them to exercise restraint.

 

"The Somali parties are urged to exercise full restraint and to commit themselves to their previous agreements reached in Khartoum," they said, in reference to earlier agreements in which both parties undertook not to pursue military solutions to the conflict.

 

The UIC delegation insisted that Ethiopian troops leave Somali territory before it sits down to talks with TFG representatives. The UIC claims the troops have been deployed inside Somalia to support the TFG. The TFG, meanwhile, has denied the presence of Ethiopian troops, claiming that the only Ethiopians in the country are military instructors.

 

"Ethiopia has declared war and invaded Somalia," Ibrahim Hassan Adow, head of UIC's foreign affairs department, who led the group's delegation to the talks in Khartoum, told IRIN on Thursday. "It's an invasion as we all know, and the world is not focusing on that issue."

 

Both parties to the conflict were also at odds over the composition of the mediation team.

 

The Arab League was to co-chair the talks with Kenya, the current chair of IGAD, but the TFG expressed reservations over the League's neutrality. The UIC has objected to Kenya's mediation, saying the country is biased in favour of the TFG, and that Kenya is one of the states favouring the deployment of foreign troops to Somalia - an idea strongly opposed by the Islamic Courts.

 

The UIC took control of the capital, Mogadishu, in early June and has continued to extend its authority over much of southern and central Somalia, challenging the legitimacy of the TFG, which was set up in 2004 in a bid to restore law and order after 15 years without a national government.

 

The TFG has also claimed that Eritrea - a bitter foe of Ethiopia since the 1998-2000 border war between the two countries - had sent armed forces to Somalia to back the UIC. Observers fear fighting could ignite a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea on Somali soil.

 

nk/jn/jm

 

IRIN news

[RedSea]

Allegedly ???

 

Saaxib we are talking about a man who was one of the main reps of the TFG in khartoum accord vs. an article which is unware of the inside scoop of somalia.

 

Believe the man who rep the TFG instead, he even brought the documentes signed by the head of parliament disallowing Ethiopian troops into the country just before Ethiopia decides to put forth another motion to challenge it, which they succeeded obviously.

[N.O.R.F]

Originally posted by Ceyrow jr.:

Watch this vid:

 

Prof. Ibbi was a member of the TFG parliament. He confesses what really went down and who derailed the Khartuom peace agreement.

 

Here is part. 4

Confirmation if ever there was such a thing. Needless to say some will still 'blame ICU'