Liibaan Posted June 23, 2010 Final Pre-electional Somaliland Poll Strongly Projects UDUB Party Winning by 54.5% of the Vote. The final Polls before the Somaliland Presidential Election - By Somaliland Public Policy Independent researchers Idris .A. Farah (Gaas) and M.A Shine are Research unit and Directors. While none of the contesting parties has conducted scientific and credible polls regarding Somaliland voter’s attitudes and preferences showing strong correlation between party campaigns and the actual wining of votes, they all have made strong forecasting about their prospects for victory. It’s not unusual for Somaliland political parties to claim victories that are contrary to the polls that have been conducted by independent observers. Nevertheless, based on our observations neither Kulmiye nor UCID has shown any capability for capturing the highest office in the land. Most independent political analysts we talk to believe that the fledging opposition parties lack the capacity to run effective campaigns to dislodge the entrenched UDUB party. Our study explores the voting behavior among social groups specifically gender, age, labor skill and the unemployed, the relationship between those groups and the 2010 election voting behavior by using the descriptive statistic analysis. It look closely at the impact of these social forces have on this contest by comparing it to the previous election to point at the differences between the three elections. Hypothetically, the impact of party identification, gender, and regional voting defenses on the 2010 Somaliland presidential election are bigger than collision of clan, gender and regional voting disparity on previous elections which people were divided severely by the clan - region split rather than ideology or party loyalty. Theoretically, the social, psychological, rational choice and mobilization theories can analyze this selection very well because people are voting in this time as a group; they have very strong loyalty to their party, and region. As our study projects civic groups mainly from ordinary people, such as families, associations, business people and young voters are giving their votes to Rayale while very young people, civil war veterans, the less educated, an unskilled labor force and the unemployed are mainly voting for Silanyo. In contrast, both business people and civil society voters are going to to support the success of this election. The care about the outcome of the Somaliland presidential election because as indicated by our observation they think that president Rayale is for peace, stability, development and motivated by UDUB’s’ progressive policy . Even though, the presidential campaign has just ended and regions are different in their political preferences, people are inspired by inspired by party identification and campaign organizer. At the same times all the candidates are getting their biggest support mainly from their respective party loyalty and geographic location rather than tribal lineage compared to 2003 election where the presidential hopefuls were getting their support mainly from their tribe. Political deference between parties is always sharps in Somaliland presidential race, but the 2010 presidential election is quite different from 2003 in terms of clan based voting. In 2003, according to a survey done by Somaliland election focus group 78% of each clan supported their candidate without building coalition with another tribe. However, in 2010 people are apparently voting through their party’s ticket. Gender differences in voting behavior were not so strong in Somaliland, but in 2010 presidential election it becomes stronger because more than 45% of women are going to vote for Udub where as 24% of women are going to vote for Ucid and 32% for Kulmiye. As the gender politics begin to emerge in Somaliland, some feminist think that there is room for Somaliland women in politics and are hoping that women would participate effectively in the Somaliland democratic process. READ MORE......... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
