Oil and Sudan’s Coming Referendum

[Kamaavi]

Three months and one week remain until the people of Southern Sudan have the opportunity to vote for independence. Apprehension is growing that an oil war is in the making. But such fears should be tempered. War between northern and southern armies over the country’s oil-rich border region is unlikely. Instead, a messy mix of intraparty struggles in the South and local armed resistance in oil-bearing regions pose serious threats.

 

Oil had previously fuelled an over two-decade civil war between the North and South, leaving two million dead until the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed in 2005. Since peace was established, the North’s ruling National Congress Party and its southern counterpart, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement have no interest in disrupting their yearly windfalls of oil revenue by returning to war. Even with southern separation almost assured, when it comes to oil, the North and South will be attached to one another for years to come.

 

It would be an act of economic suicide for either side to make a move to capture oil fields by force. Over 80% of Sudan’s oil production and reserves lie beneath landlocked southern soil. But the only means of exporting the crude oil, extracted from the ground by a trio of Asian national oil companies from China, India and Malaysia, is through a set of pipelines heading northeast to the Red Sea. Until the South develops its own pipeline, which would take years, it is in quite the bind. If it wants to continue to profit from essentially its only source of revenue, and it has handsomely at over $9 billion over the past five years, it will have to continue sharing oil revenues with the North. At the same time, the North’s dependency on oil, measuring in at 60% of its annual revenues, will certainly have to take a sizeable cut to please southern leaders.

 

Tensions have previously driven the NCP and SPLM to blows over oil. In May 2008, hundreds of civilians were killed and thousands displaced in the aftermath of a violent confrontation between northern and southern armed forces in the oil region of Abyei. Yet inevitably the NCP and SPLM managed to iron out their differences, and the oil revenues continue to flow. The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in July 2009 essentially stripped the Abyei of its oil-rich status, placing the key oil field of Heglig outside of the region. But the decision did not lead to armed conflict as many expected. Two years earlier in 2007, the NCP and SPLM settled a dispute that saw French oil major Total retain its rights to a massive oil block in Southern Sudan. More recently, the North has agreed to resume payment of the southern oil share in foreign currency after the South cried foul in receiving Sudanese pounds from Khartoum’s central bank, undermining its ability to purchase imported goods. But while the NCP and SPLM have continuously found a way to share the spoils, the influx of new oil wealth has caused other problems.

 

Southern Sudan is on a path to continue the sins of a long line of endowed yet unscrupulous African oil producers. Government salaries have made up the fair share of consecutive budgets while major towns in the South continue to lack heath, education and infrastructure investment. Southern finance ministers come and go over corruption scandals, providing political ammunition for those who would like to see the SPLM fall apart. More alarmingly, there is discontent from within.

 

Oil may prove to be a highly divisive factor in power struggles in an independent Southern Sudan. The forces of high-ranking SPLM members, Unity State Governor Taban Deng and General Paulino Matip, clashed last October in Bentiu. Matip has close ties with a US oil outfit, Jarch Capital, which according to its Chairman Phil Heilberg is hoping to capitalize on ‘sovereignty changes’ in Sudan. Jarch’s claim to oil concessions stand in opposition to those of other companies signed up with the southern government. The former rebels may face their own rebellion soon enough in an independent Southern Sudan.

 

A Niger Delta scenario of entrenched conflict between local armed groups and government security forces is brewing in Sudan’s oil regions. Four Chinese oil workers were killed in 2008 during a botched rescue attempt by Sudanese authorities after the workers were kidnapped near the oil town of Heglig. Local populations have seen little benefit come out of oil. Rather their impoverished situation has been worsened by the environmental degradation brought on by negligent oil companies operating under an utter lack of regulation. The cost-cutting discharge of contaminated water from oil reservoirs has lead to the death of livestock and serious illness among local populations.

 

If the northern and southern governments wish to continue to profit from oil after the referendum, they must end their bickering over oil revenues and start to tackle the negative consequences of oil development at the local level. The SPLM must get its house in order and put an end to any dealings its members might have with oil companies looking to make a quick buck. Both parties must also start to take the well-being of local populations in oil-bearing regions seriously. Ignoring the needs of those who live closest to their main source of income is simple common sense. Northern and southern armies will unlikely square off over oil heading towards the referendum. But ensuring a wider stability will only encourage future investment and growth in Sudan’s oil sector.

[Saalax]

Good luck to the people of Southern Sudan and their referendum.

[Kamaavi]

Sudan’s NCP warns against unilateral referendum in Abyei

 

Friday 5 November 2010

 

The northern Sudan ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has warned its peace partner and southern Sudan ruling party SPLM against organizing unilaterally a popular vote on the future of Abyei which lies on the North-South border.

 

Didiri Mohamed Ahmed (Reuters) The Abyei Referendum Commission has not yet been formed due to differences between the NCP and SPLM over who will participate in the referendum. The NCP says all the population of the oil producing area, including the Misseriya tribe who enter the region for a few months a year are eligible, while the SPLM says only the Dinka Ngok can vote.

 

In October, the signatories of the 2005 peace agreement failed to agree on the voter eligibility during a series of talks brokered by the US envoy to Sudan Scott Gration held in Addis Ababa.

 

A senior NCP member, Dirdiri Mohamed Ahmed, who is in charge of Abyei file on Thursday accused the SPLM of preparing to annex Abyei to southern Sudan before or at the same time as the south’s referendum on full independence.

 

Dirdiri who was addressing a meeting of the NCP members from the Dinka Ngok youth organized at the headquarters of the ruling party in Khartoum, warned that if the SPLM undertakes such measures it would be a "flagrant violation of the Abyei Protocol and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement" (CPA).

 

He further stressed that the Interim Constitution provides that none of the two parties can amend the 1956 border before the referendum is conducted.

 

"If the parties do not agree on an alternative for the referendum there is no way to amend the border unilaterally," he said.

 

The NCP delegation to Addis Ababa meetings said in a press conference held in Khartoum in October that it was not possible to hold Abyei referendum as scheduled on January 9. It called further to discuss other alternatives including the delay of the referenda.

 

The official responsible for the Abyei dossier said the NCP informed the former South African President Thabo Mbeki who is leading the ongoing efforts to broker a solution for the row over Abyei Referendum about this "dangerous development".

 

Mbeki who chairs the African Union High Level Panel on Sudan on Monday announced the adjournment of talks between the two partners of the 2005 peace agreement scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa on 27 October without indicating when they would meet.

 

Nonetheless, he stressed that this postponement will not affect the ongoing preparations to hold the referendum on 9 January as scheduled. He added the parties need more time to agree on the agenda of the talks.

 

In accordance with the CPA, the population of Abyei is invited to decide whether they want to be part of the north or a possible new country in the south. This vote will take place simultaneously with another one on self-determination in Southern Sudan.

 

Source : ST

[Kamaavi]

South Sudan rejects Egyptian proposal to delay referendum

 

Saturday 6 November 2010

 

JUBA - The government of the semi autonomous region of south Sudan (GoSS) on Friday rejected an Egyptian proposal calling for a delay to the conduct of the upcoming self determination referendum in south Sudan.

 

The referendum is the culmination of a six year peace agreement between Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the former southern-based rebel movement the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), who have governed the south since 2005.

 

Speaking to Sudan Tribune in the regional capital of Juba on Thursday, Marial Benjamin Bil, minister of information and broadcasting services said the vote on self determination would on go ahead as planned because both parties had agreed to it.

 

“The two parties have already agreed to conduct [the] referendum on time. It has been discussed and announced several times. The last presidency meeting also reiterated the conduct of referendum on time. So, there is no delay here,” said the minister.

 

The head of the referendum commission said in press statements last week that holding the vote on time would amount to a "miracle".

 

Bil said that the referendum date had been agreed as part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which ended two decades of war.

 

“The 2005 peace signed between the two parties and which was signed by Egyptian government as an eye witness to the agreement, allows conduct of the referendum on 9th of January 2011”, said Bill.

 

There is nothing, he said, that would prevent the conduct of the referendum.

 

“The environment would be conducive. The government of south Sudan is committed and confident that the environment would be conducive for the conduct of the referendum because the exercise will be conducted with participation of the international observers, civil society organizations and forces of United Nations,” he said.

 

The minister also dismissed claims by the NCP that completing the demarcation of the north-south border was a prerequisite for the conduct of referendum.

 

The Egyptian government on Wednesday expressed concerns that post referendum violence would create an influx of migrants from its neighbor to the south.

 

"We fear separation may be accompanied by some violent actions that affect Sudan’s relations with neighboring countries and Egypt, which circumstances may oblige to host Sudanese" fleeing unrest, the official MENA news agency quoted the Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul-Gheit as telling a committee at the consultative council which is known as Shura council on Thursday.

 

"This is matter of concern that requires adequate preparations," he said.

 

"It is not a problem if the referendum is delayed for several months.........Sudanese should take into account the priority of the importance of life over the importance of holding the referendum on time " MENA quoted the Egyptian minister as saying.

 

Egypt has been historically opposed to South Sudan’s secession for fear that it would affect its share in their share of the Nile waters.

 

By Ngor Arol Garang.

[Kamaavi]

South Sudan Political Parties’ Council launches referenda action plan

 

Sunday 7 November 2010

 

JUBA - The recently formed Southern Sudan Political Parties’ Council (PPC) and other leading civil society organizations have officially launched the PPC’s action plan to promote the code of conduct for the referendum on south Sudan independence and the popular consultations in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile.

 

JPEG - 31.1 kb

AU’s Aminata Mansaray (L), Justice Chan Reec (center) and Fibel Ufondi addressing journalists on the launch of the referenda action plan in Juba, Saturday, November 06, 2010 (Sudan Tribune)

 

The action plan is supported by the African Union (AU) High-Level Panel on Sudan, led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.

 

South Sudan is 66 days away from holding a referendum vote in January 2011 on whether it wants to remain united with the Muslim-dominated north or secedes to form its own independent nation. All prognoses indicate that south Sudan secession is a fait accompli.

 

According to a press release issued on Saturday, the action plan includes the expansion of the PPC and its alternative coordinating bodies, which are tasked with promoting the code across all 10 states in South Sudan.

 

The PPC’s acting chairperson, Fibel Ufondi, told journalists on Saturday that the referendum code, which was adopted during a recent conference of Southern Sudan political parties in Juba, would guide the action plans aimed at ensuring a peaceful and credible conduct of the planned ballot.

 

Ufondi acknowledged the continuous commitment of AU panel to promoting free, fair, timely and credible conduct of the referenda, urging the government and civil society organizations to cooperate with the panel.

 

According to the PPC, the launch of the action plan will coincide with the official commencement on Sunday of South Sudan’s extensive media campaign for the referenda, which aims to include various media houses in the region.

 

“Our other objective was to use this occasion [action plan launch] to contribute to the government’s efforts in marking the start of the media campaign with momentum,” the PPC’s press release issued during Saturday’s briefing reads.

 

Aminata Mansaray, a senior officer at the AU liaison office in Juba, said it was important for the outcome of the referenda to reflect the wishes and decisions of the southern population.

 

She affirmed that the AU would remain committed to its rightful mandate in ensuring that the ongoing negotiations on Abyei as well as other referenda-related consultations progress smoothly ahead of the two plebiscites.

 

For his part, Justice Chan Reec Madut, the Chairperson of Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau (SSRB), said that the action plan adopted by the PPC was a timely initiative that would boost efforts to prepare people for the referendum.

 

Madut stressed that the code of conduct is essential to the voters’ education exercise, which he described as the milestone for the achievement of a free, fair and credible referendum.

 

Source: ST

[Kamaavi]

Originally posted by Libaahe*:

Good luck to the people of Southern Sudan and their referendum.

 

[Kamaavi]

Saudi FM says Sudan referendum could lead to more violence

 

(AFP) – 1 day ago

 

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The top Saudi diplomat said on Saturday that Sudan's coming referendum on the south's independence could reignite violence in the country rather than bring peace.

 

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said the original reason for the January referendum was to bring peace between the north and south in the wake of a two-decade-old civil war.

 

"The solution needed is to stop the fighting between the north and the south," he told reporters.

 

"If the referendum leads to a renewal of fighting, that is what we fear," said.

 

He stressed the referendum, scheduled for January 9, must be fair and free, but reiterated Riyadh's worry that the largest Arab country by territory will be split in half.

 

He said the Sudan referendum marks "a critical juncture in its history, threatening its territorial division."

 

The referendum is part of a 2005 peace deal that ended a two-decade-old civil war in Sudan which left an estimated two million dead.

 

An important aid donor to Sudan and ally to President Omar al-Bashir, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly expressed concern over the referendum without openly stating that it is opposed to it.

 

Copyright © 2010 AFP. All rights reserved

[Kamaavi]

Former Nigerian leader urges people of Sudan to live together in peace

 

 

APA, Abuja (Nigeria) Nigeria’s former military head of state Abdulsalami Abubakar has called on the people of Sudan to learn to live together in the interest of humanity.

 

Abubakar is a member of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel on Sudan (AUHLP) chaired by the former President of South Africa, Mr Thabo Mbeki.

 

He said in statement mailed to Abuja on Sunday that no matter the outcome of the referendum scheduled for January 9, 2011, the people from the northern and southern parts of Sudan must live together as they share a common border and heritage.

 

“Whether Southern Sudan separates or not, they are bound to live together, they must find ways and means of living together.

 

“It is a must for them to continue to be together as they share a common heritage, hence they must accommodate each other,” he said.

 

Abubakar said there were many people from Southern Sudan living in the North as there were many people from Northern Sudan living in the South.

 

“There are issues of citizenship, joint ownership of what used to belong to Sudan, among many others that must be sorted out amicably.

 

“So by nature, geography, border and heritage, they are one people and must find a way to live together through the spirit of give and take,” Abubakar said.

 

However, Abubakar said the Doha peace negotiation on Sudan was yet to provide results as the major rebel groups have refused to attend the meeting.

 

He said the Doha negotiation, which started two years ago, might end up like the Abuja Peace Accord which did not record any achievement.

 

“Just like the Abuja-Dafur Peace Accord which some rebels refused to sign, and therefore made the implementation of the accord so difficult, so also, unless we have the major rebels attending the Doha Peace Negotiation, the issue of Darfur will continue to be a very difficult thing,” he said.

 

Abubakar, however, expressed optimism that the forthcoming referendum would at least put certain issues to rest as on the issue of Darfur.

 

Abubakar said the UN and the international community, the government of Sudan and that of Southern Sudan have pledged to provide the required logistics for the registration of voters which would soon commence.

 

MM/daj/APA

2010-11-07

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

it's irrelevant what former Nigerian leader says what is the stand of the current Nigerian govt

[Kamaavi]

Abubakar is member of the AUHLP on Sudan. He didn't mention position of his gov't. Simply put the core of his optimistic call was the feeling that the referendum would put certain issues to rest. So xaaji saab, could you elaborate, on which points of his call you agree to disagree?

[Kamaavi]

President Al Bashir Back Home from Qatar

 

Monday, November 08

 

President Al Bashir returned home yesterday afternoon after a two-day visit to Qatar in response to a kind invitation extended the Emir of Qatar State, H.H. Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.

 

Al Bashir talks with the Emir focused bilateral relations, developments of situations in Darfur, progress on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement implementation, as well as the ongoing preparations for the referendum stage.

 

 

Before winding off his visit to Doha, Al Bashir met with the AU-UN Joint Chief Mediator, Djibril Bassolé and Qatar's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ahmed bin Abdullah Al- Mahmoud in connection with progress on Darfur peace negotiations brokered by Doha.

 

 

The President lauded efforts dedicated by Bassole and Al- Mahmoud regarding the Darfur issue resolution, commending the huge support Qatar extends to the mediation and negotiating parties.

 

 

The Joint Chief Mediator Bassolé was optimistic that negations would be culminated by the signing of a final Darfur peace agreement during the coming December.