The New Saviour: Federalism- Or is it?

[Sophist]

The New Saviour: Federalism- Or is it?

 

 

The eagerly anticipated first child comes with divination defects; the childless parents accept it with much elation for they have got rid off their lament of not being equal to their other nomads. Conversely, the future of the child is bleak for they live in tenuously harsh environment that requires much of their attention. Attention that they can not afford to give as their nomadic nature dictates, hence within years, the very baby that they much wished to have becomes an economic burden. Such is parallel to this ill-thought Federal System. An idea because of its alien nature appeals to many of the Somalis who have gathered at the thirteenth Somali Peace Initiative in Kenya. One wonders briefly in hilarity (just before despondency gets its seat and is compelled with poignant pity) how such idea can be thought about and expected to work without much forethought in regards to Somali ‘political’ stature. Are we in the same position to those parents? The answer that comes promptly to my fervent mind is CERTAINLY we are; but almost as these positive words follow from my lips, the mind conjures up a question that beguiles it and induces to ask: Can we nurture such a child and give its most sought element which will sustain him? As a young man without much knowledge of this intricate issue, I shall dive into this controversial subject invoking the intellectual sentiment of the Somali Ruugcadaa (White kneed), with assurance they shall come with their sharp swords leaving me with great injury but without death; only to come back with finer ferocity..

 

In this brief and hastily written piece, I will reflect the federalism and perhaps shed light to its murky alleyways in order those for who walks after shall come to no harm.

 

It is argued Somalia with its tribal (and the new division) and linguistic divisions that substantially coincide with territorial boundaries confront especial problems making effective unitary government to work. It is vulnerable to intense inter-group conflict, which leads hideously ghastly violence which in turn summons up some secessionist tendencies; the case of North-Western people of Somalia comes to mind. One institutional device intended to mitigate such injurious tendencies is Federalism. Of course, federalism has (and should have) other important goals and consequences and thus it have to be studied from variety of economic, social and political perspectives. Surprisingly, little research has been done on the effects of federalism in managing its effects particularly those third world countries. More so, the exact working of this system is little known amongst many Somalis who are currently rallying behind it. Thus, it is advisable to give it much needed definitions be fore we proceed into the main bulk of this piece. The root of the word federal lie in the Latin term foedus- Meaning convent or compact. Interesting root one might say considering the fact that a convent have to be voluntary. As Daniel Elazar explained more than a decade ago (exploring federalism, 1987) the federal process requires a “sense of partnership” and such sense cannot be imposed. This gives the partners concerned a sense of justice (I shy away equality which indeed quite problematic in political economy). Perhaps this is what Somalis need now. The current suspicions that are engraved within the respective tribes in Somalia might be resolved by federalisation; that is if the right institutions are at place. Now let us glance briefly at Federalism versus Centralism.

 

 

Federalism versus Centralism

 

Nancy Bermeo who is one of the few Political Scientists who gave the deserved attention to this phenomena argues that “Federal systems provide more layers of government and thus more settings for peaceful bargaining” Furthermore, they also provide at bare minimum the assurance of regional elites getting their hands on a greater stake in forthcoming political institutions; this is perhaps the driving force behind these pathologically power hungry bunch for their want of this system. With these political inducements one would expect fewer armed rebellions in federal states. This assurance tames the intense insecurity that that many of local warlords feel in their respective regions in Somalia. The minimum civil war within in federal states is illustrated below with comparison to that of centralist (unitary) states. . (Source: Ted Robert Gurr. Minorities at Risk: A global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts, Washington, Institute of Peace Press, 1993)

 

 

Table 1 - Measures of Accommodation

Measures of All States Dictatorships Democracies

Accommodation Federal Unitary Federal Unitary Federal Unitary

Armed Rebellion 1.13 3.14 0.92 4.36 1.59 1.20

Political Discrimination 1.54 1.95 1.42 2.05 1.67 1.88

Economic Discrimination 1.33 2.00 1.00 1.79 1.61 2.24

Political Grievances 1.67 3.11 1.08 3.16 2.29 2.92

Economic Grievances 1.87 2.56 1.00 2.14 2.72 3.28

Cultural Grievances 1.96 2.32 1.73 2.41 2.28 2.20

 

The incidence of ethnic (tribal) rebellion is more than four times greater in centralist dictatorships than in federal dictatorship. The fear that there would be another dictator springing up somewhere in Mogadishu and coercing people of Hargeisa would seem quite farfetched in federal state according to the findings of the above MAR report. This is obviously one of the advantages federal state would provide and coiling mechanism towards such fear. But one wonders whether such fears can be assuaged without federalism. Can’t we introduce a governing system that would not invest all its powers in the capital but would delegate certain authority to its local states? Would such state be much preferable to federalism which has become the prime catchall term in Somali recent politics? I say recent because this ill-thought system was devised in Sodare by that arch enemy of Somalia. Would such initiator hope to restore the glory of Somalia? The forthcoming answer is filled with invective emotionalism of which many would find it a mere diatribe.

 

 

The Role of Federal System

 

The role of the forthcoming government seems quite murky. Thus perhaps it would be wise to consider the following questions that are yet to be answered clearly. Does the national government have primary authority over the local economy? Does it have the authority to police the common market? Do all authorities of the land, especially sub-national ones, face hard budget constraints How about the institutionalized control; is the allocation of political authority institutionalized? There are pacts of weakness (Federal State of Somalia), who is going to draw the map of the state borders, and what are their jurisdictions? What is the role of federal government? What is the role of these states? This system is going to be a source of all troubles. As you know this pact advances those groups that have established local administrations. What about those who haven't organized themselves or established their own clan administration? What does this pact say about them? Who decides, who is the state, and their borders/jurisdictions?

 

These are some of the basic questions that any given state is obliged to consider prior to embracing the federal system. It seems such hastily prepared system neglects those fundamental questions with dismal excellence. The last question would have an incitingly inflammatory political and tribal conflict

 

Is this the Choice of Somalis or is it Imposed upon them?

 

 

History warns us the dangers of imposed federalism and indeed such warning merit a close attention. How can one reconcile the dour reviews of federalism in post-communist states with the decidedly more positive assessments elsewhere; United States comes to mind? Despite the economic structure of the comparatively different federal systems; one of the few commentators in this subject diligently argues that the origins of the two sister systems laid their eggs in different baskets. He points out that “in each of post-communist cases, failed federalism was the legacy of imposed rule and of a past shaped by dictatorial party”. The countries that broke away from the former Soviet Union has their federal status imposed upon them by the very “odd empire” (the latter word can be analogous to certain neighbour country with similar legacy) cantered in Moscow at the End of World War II (Putting together Federalism, Alfered Stephan, Oxford, 2001).

 

Almost all the federal systems that split apart or turned toward centralism were imposed by an outsider influencing the domestic political structure of the given country. Like the systems that collapsed in post-communist Europe ( other countries that come to mind are: Burma, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Libya, Malaysia-Singapore) these failed federal cases are all examples of a subtype that the Somalis can learn from. These empirical evidences give strong finality that federal agreements must be based on domestic covenants if they are to survive.

 

These failed cases also reveal a gruesome commonality. Each failed federal state that gave birth to secessionist civil war was either outright dictatorship or an inchoate regime led by unwise leader. Throughout of the modern political history there were no violent separatist movements that have ever succeeded in federal system based on covenant.

 

Although that there is much that remains unknown about federalism and its effects in third world, it is clear that the successful management of territorial cleavages in Somalia has a great deal to do with political institutions. The necessary institutional supports that are needed are both wise and federal. But this is just the beginning of the answer. There are great institutional variations within federal systems that can make the difference between failure and success, including (but not confined to) such technical and political issues as the design of the electoral laws, the timing of the election, the drawing of the state boundaries, this later issue would be a politically seditious. If this federal system that is proposed is going to be based on tribal territories where are we going to draw the boundaries? Since there are regions that are inhabited by different clans (Sanaag and Mudug, to mention couple where the capital cities of these two regions are divided to two different clans) how such a proposal going to divide these regions? It seems that these leaders are venturing into unknown waters, I wonder if this goes wrong what would be the consequence. Nigeria got its institutions wrong the first time and lost more than one million people to civil war as a result. But in Nigeria’s wise leaders then took a resounding action to reform institutions; meaning federalism has done more to relieve or contain secessionist pressures than to stimulate them. If these ‘political leaders’ are to adopt federalism voluntarily, they will have to know which institutional variations suits Somalia best. This is where one legitimate question comes to mind; that is whether the Somali people have been given the choice? With clarity, that is not the case. This whole thing had been propagated by the Somali’s historical arch-enemy. This does not mean federalism in its puritanical anatomy with wise governing can not work, why adopt a system that is stemmed from one country that desire your destruction.

 

Concluding Thoughts

 

The federalisation system that is proposed for Somalia is not a panacea and federalism is not guarantee of peace or of anything else fort this matter. However, there are undoubtedly situations in which such options should be spurned. Yet it is important not to reject federalism for spurious reasons, and it is historically inaccurate to argue that it brings on separatism and disunites the country. But one has to question it is applicability in Somalia even though, this piece briefly illustrated federalism can work; I am persuaded that it can work in Somalia with right institutions. However, I am left sceptical of the potential complications of this present proposal. A painful experience teaches us that anything that is not thought about fully fails. Skill and forethought are two elements that need to be cultivated before such a mammoth task is to be undertaken. I suspect the existences of both these elements are in paucity state. Once more, we the younger generation shall await and see whether that defected child is taken out of his parent’s environment to better place where he can grow healthy and lead promising life or whether he is bound by fate!.

[SA7RAWY]

"two state solution"???? You crazy man! We're not jews/arabs we are one somali ppl!!!

 

so called somaliland doesnt exist.It is a dream. period. not recognize! anyone who knows somalis know that ppl in ssh which are the same subclan as ppl in bari/nugal/mudug starts with 'h'. why would they would the subclans go join completely different clan?!?! called soamliland?!? that's like saying todheer is part of puntland. U see how ****** that sounds? why would somaliland subclan join differnt puntland clan? no subclans wants to be a minority in anothr clan's state. period.

 

also there will be 5 states and xamar as federal territory similar to the map on "Federal and Federal Now' topic. if u read new charter u would kow it takes more then two regions to form a state. this will all be discused/worked out in the next four years by commities and elders etc.

 

mr. odayaal,

you try to sound smart but your not. you are scared because you dont want somalia to be peaceful. that is ur whole argument for begging countries to recognize u! U know that riyaale the butcher/war criminal is begging to be presidnt of somalia. just like egal(ilaahay ha u naxariisto) wanted it too. What about tuur? He believes in somalia and he was aidiids vice president! so what does it mean taht the man who made so called somalialand now says he was just joking and playing politics!!! Do you think the corrupt killer riyaale would choose bankrupt so caleld somaliland instead of chance to rule new recognized somalia government?!? of course not! all so called somalialnd leaders wants to rule one united somalia. it doens't matter what ppl like u think. you r not even living there man.

 

Keep dreaming oldman--Somalia is One!!! Always and Forever!!

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

This proposed five "federal states" breakdown will never make sense to Somaliland. Waa hadii runta aan ka hadlanyno.

 

The chances of seeing Somaliland back to the union is worse than ever.

 

SA7RAWY, saxib, present your case in a civilized manner. There is no need to attack other nomads.

[General Duke]

Liibax,

 

You make no sense brother what so ever.

 

The five state solutions is the reality on the ground. The biggest most pressing issue today is how to satisfy most people and not just the secessionist who are a minority in the country. The point is how to bring peace in the south and I mean everything south of PUNTLAND.

Somaliland wants autonomy, self governance and funding without struggle and loss of life then this is the best solution for the aspirations of the North West.

But if we are talking about the realms of fictitious power and harking back to the 1960 defunct two state union, then it will be division and more wasted time.

 

Only time will tell but if the south recovers and joins Puntland in creating federalism and fairness through Somalia then I don’t think Somaliland without its dream of recognition would opt to stay out.

 

The people of the North West have no alternative to Secession and sectarian hatred at the moment, they see nothing but anarchy in XAMAR and ae told that this is how all of Somalia is. When there is an alternative it won’t be just General Ghalib and Tuur who will speak but a lot of those the quit majority who see no recognition and no progress who hate the business monopolies and incompetence of Riyaale.

 

However if one makes himself blind of reality then this argument will be wasted on you. Again don’t misunderstand me I think Somaliland is what it is the North Western part of a great country.

[General Duke]

Hey people,

 

Tell me if this MAP is NOT accurate, if it is not why should SOMALILAND be more important than ASAL or JUBA?

 

Is it economy, hey we live in Africa and there is not that greater a difference, heck I doubt that in 10 years Somaliland would have as much money as JUBA

 

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

SMITH, inadeer, did you understand what I wrote above, or you just one of those who like to spice up their posts with personal attacks on the first line?

 

Saxiib, as much as I wish to see a peaceful, united Somalia, I don't like inaan naftayda beenbeen ku maaweeliyo. My belief is that Somaliland will not accept this new system. If you disagree with me on this or have a much more credible evidence to prove me wrong, then present it in a civilized manner and tell me why Somaliland will accept this new "Somalia".

[Gediid]

Originally posted by Libaax-Sankataabte:

This proposed five "federal states" breakdown will never make sense to Somaliland. Waa hadii runta aan ka hadlanyno.

 

The chances of seeing Somaliland back to the union is worse than ever.

 

SA7RAWY, saxib, present your case in a civilized manner. There is no need to attack other nomads.

Libaax well said.

 

Smith stop running around with a map that makes no sense.You have posted and reposted that thing so many times in the last 2 days but it still does not make sense.

[General Duke]

Liibax,

 

Brother don’t take dialogue as a form of personal attack, spicing up posts is another matter altogether.

First we must set parameters about what we are discussing; we must be clear about who we are talking about. What is this Somaliland, Which will either accept and which might not accept this new reality?

 

Somaliland is not a person it’s a state, it hasn’t got one collective thinking, it has various contradiction just like what is referred to as “Reer Konfur”.

 

Also we must understand what is there to be accepted, a Somali nation on the rise will not be accepted by those who don’t want it. There will be resistance to change not just from “Somaliland” but from across the country as a whole, all the fat cats all the businessmen and al those who don’t see themselves in the picture will resist.

 

If the point is will Somaliland aka Colonel Kahin’s administration accept the outcome of the peace process, then no they will not because it is not in their interest to see a Unified Somalia. This is totally different to the people or other silent groups but Colonel Kahin earns as much as Georg Bush and I don’t think he want that to stop.

 

If we are arguing wither or not eventually Somaliland will become part of the Jigsaw puzzle that will be the Federal republic, I believe yes in the near future Somaliland will become part of Somalia because it will have no other choice. Again it has no other choice, with no recognition and no political will other than rhetoric on the BBC; I see it as short sightedness to believe that the status quo will remain indefinitely.

 

Somaliland has thus far failed to convince the international community that it deserves recognition. The rulers there might hold elections and fake referendums but truth will never be known as long as there is no alternative to the secessionist argument IN THE North West.

 

I am not be idealistic but the sign are on the wall, change is coming and the world has so far more than supported the Nairobi conference, if this leads to Government with world support, forget warlords and forget Colonel Kahin.

 

Again many thanks and don’t take these simple words as insult, now present your arguments Liibax, on how Somaliland will remain outside the process and how it will survive?

[General Duke]

Gediid,

 

The map makes sense its just maybe your colour blind LOL, I POSTED IT and will repost it to my convenience because it is SENSE it clearly marks where everyone is AT, right now.

 

Mr Oodweyn and others,

What facts do you want prsented?

 

1)That Somaliland dosnet control all the teritories it claims.

2) That your Somalialnd is not and has not been recognised by anyone not even Ethiopia or Djabouti.

3) That people such as General Ghalib, Abdirahman Tuur and others are out right supporters of the Union. Others such as Professors Galayr, and Samatar hate to even speak of breaking up Somalia.

 

......................

So with all of this when Somalia has been divided and has no recognised government, imagine how it will be with a recognised state?

 

So I wait your replies, with facts now you hear, no fairytales regarding the late Egal and others.

[Gediid]

Smith

 

Color blind,I think not but my point was simply warka local ka ah ama waxa reerku rabo waar meelaha internationalka lama keeno like Somalia Online where many divergent thoughts and views are exchanged.

[General Duke]

Gediid,

 

The map is local talk how come?

nd "reerka" what has that got to do with the map, I know none of my family invented it, I havent yet asked my Grandmother though LOL

 

i WAS EXPECTING A MORE MEATY response a more precise reply, How ever I would like people to present their arguments for Somaliland not joining the five state reunion

And I quote Liibax

"present your case in a civilized manner. There is no need to attack other nomads."

[General Duke]

Mr Oodweyn,

 

Many thanks for the frankness of your answers and the truth which at last you where able to admit.

 

I am serious that Somaliland will join a fair and federal state when and not if it’s created. My circular argument is that the people of Somaliland actions can be measured by the actions of their so called leaders those who propagate the idea. This is a good measurement as we have very little facts regarding the people, ah alas the referendum. Was it 99%? I remember Sadam Hussien getting 97% and Hafiz Assad getting 100% on the extension of their terms. But hey we are talking about a democracy here right?

 

Let’s go forward, Abdirahman Tuur as you have kindly pointed out was the first president of Somaliland the Washington the founding father, yet he left and went under the shadow of Aydeed. So much for the belief in Somaliland, when the man lost he went to Somaliweyn, this proves the point that it is not ideology but interest that drove him to create Somaliland in the first place.

 

Egal is another paradox, he was a Somaliweyn PM, then became an ardent Somali break up nationalist, if simplified if he stayed PM of Somaliweyn he would have found this Somaliland thing a bit troublesome, as we are assuming him and Tuur are no better than each other, just different faces of the same coin. So there goes two leaders, what about the SNM, was it a Somaliland liberation movement? Was the movement based on independence for the North West was this in its charter, the answer frankly is no. From this basic evidence my little brain can discern that Somaliland is just propagated by those who have interest in it, those who benefit directly from it. So the people I believe if given a fair chance and an alternative will follow what is in their interest. Their interest would not be to be left behind while other Somali’s progress. And I BELIEVE THE PEOPLE ARE AS SOPHISTICATED AS THEIR MOVEMENTS AND LEADERS.

 

Ooodweyn you wrote

 

“Mr Tuur, Mr Ghalib, Prof Samater, Dr Galaydh, do not,..I repeat,..Reed Carefully here please,..do not represent anybody or for that matter they do not represent “

 

I believe you are just playing with me by uttering such words, the men mentioned above are held in high esteem amongst their respective communities, but you would know better as one was your first president and two are amongst the brightest academics that ever hailed from the North West.

 

Again Ooodweyn you tend to lose yourself in what you write, like a Jeffrey Archer novel each line has punch but no substance.

 

You admit that

 

“that nobody had recognise somaliland so far!!, which is patently true!! for now; also you said it, that somaliland administration do not "Yet" control all of the land that they claim!! to rule in the original somaliland state, which is also a fact on the ground and it's true for now!.”

 

Dear brother unless I am mistaken that makes Somaliland no better than the RRA and other southern factions, both are not recognised by anybody and both don’t control territories they claim for now. This means and its simple that if the Somali republic gets recognised, pressure dear boy will mount exponentially on Kahin and crew they will have to negotiate and I think Kahin the way he handle things is an amateur compared to Tuur and battered Mogadishu was such a lure to the later imagine a clean one to the former?

 

However you insist on persisting. This formula is a save face option for the North West. It gives them what they have craved for autonomy, self rule. However I admit there are diehard fans of separation a Basque separatist movement no less LOL. Faisal Warrabe and his lot, like HIS SOUTHERN COUNTERPART Musa Sudi Yalahow believe in what they say. However the irony is they do not know what they are talking about.

 

Again and I KNOW you will agree

 

Somalia is not like 1960, now power is truly devolved we have no colonial surrogate mother giving us direction.

We have a fracture country, centralist’s, separatists, clan dominance, free market economy and federalism is the middle ground. It is the common thread which gives most what they want. Now a bunch of warlords in Nairobi might agree to a plan that makes sense, what then for you. What then, do you actually believe that you will be stronger than you are now? Can you tell us where you will get this might this money this influence that you the secessionist will deliver what you have so far failed miserably to deliver? A prosperous fully controlled recognised country with leaders of great integrity. All I see is a fractured poor monopolised region full of two faced leaders, kind of reminds of a town I once lived in I think it was called XAMAR?

..................................

SmithNwestern is the name ........

[Rokko]

SmithWestern, As a Puntlander, first I have a problem with that phony map. It is actually manufactured by the USC. The line that divides USC and Puntland doesn't go though GARACAD. Garacad is in the heart of Puntland na'mean. That tells you this is a fake map.

 

As for Somaliland, I agree with LibaaxSanka. It is not that easy for Somaliland to run after us all of a sudden na'mean?.

 

somaliland would only consider coming back when these conditions are met.

 

 

1. Make Somalia two federal states. Somaliland and Southern Somalia.

 

2. Move the capital to Hargiesa

 

3. Change the name of the country to Somaliland

 

4. Acknowledge the suffering of the poeple of the north.

 

5. Make the first president of Somalia someone from Somaliland. After the first 5 years, if someone from the South is elected as the president, the priminister should always be from Somaliland.

 

 

Then, the chances of seeing Somaliland back to the union is improved from 1% to 50% na'mean?

 

 

ya all should understand it ain't easy to satisfy Somaliland at this time.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Salaan...

 

Originally posted by Mobb_Deep:

1. Make Somalia two federal states. Somaliland and Southern Somalia.

 

2. Move the capital to Hargiesa

 

3. Change the name of the country to Somaliland

 

4. Acknowledge the suffering of the poeple of the north.

 

5. Make the first president of Somalia someone from Somaliland. After the first 5 years, if someone from the South is elected as the president, the priminister should always be from Somaliland.

^^^^^^^

 

I think Paltalk's radical and militant approach to Soomaaliland in his thread makes even more sense than what you listed above.

 

Marka waxaa rabtaa Reer Soomaaliland inee isbishaal laga dhigo oo buur lasaaro?

 

The map is beautiful and makes a lot of sense, however I am not into federal camp. Centralized Soomaaliya is my opinion.

_______________

 

Macsalaama.

[LANDER]

Mr.Oodweyne,

You make some very keen points, even though you will soon realize that a logical discussion with some people is hopeless and a waste of time.

 

Mobb_Deep,

Even though I don't agree with you, you're truly an unselfish individual who is willing to compromise no matter how large or little to see through a vision. Sad all the somaliweyn supporters do not have such a mentality. If somali politicians understood the meaning of the word "compromise" like you do, I think we wouldn't have so many problems as a greater somali race.