A Cyclone is heading towards Somalia

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Source: USAID Famine Early Warning System Network

Date: 14 Nov 2003

 

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Tropical cyclone update and potential impact for the Greater Horn of Africa - Issue 1

 

14 - 16 November 2003

 

This is an ad-hoc regional bulletin, which provides information to facilitate contingency and response planning in areas at risk of, flash floods and damaging winds associated with tropical cyclones. It is a collaborative effort between FEWS NET, USGS, local and international partners.

The presence of tropical cyclones off the northeast coast of Somali, which is slowly drifting inland, may have both adverse and beneficial impacts within Somali and neighboring countries. For areas within its expected landfall, there are concerns for potential heavy rains and strong winds. Its positive impact will be beneficial rains in the drought prone areas of the Sool plateau as well as parts of the neighboring pastoral livelihood zones in Kenya and Ethiopia. This advisory highlights the forecast cyclone trajectory in next 2-3 days, its potential impact. FEWS NET will continue to closely monitor this cyclone.

 

Current Situation

 

The current weather situation as depicted by the Meteosat imagery confirms the presence of the unnamed tropical cyclone with a westward drift towards the northeast Somalia coast. This storm currently has winds of 55 - 70 knots, or 25 - 35 m/s. Field reports indicate increased cloudiness and rains in parts of Mudug, Nugal, Bay and Bakool and Gedo regions in Somalia. This is also evident from the Meteosat imagery with extensive cloud bands already engulfing these areas. The current location of the cyclone has also resulted in increased rains extending southwards into central districts of Kenya. According to NOAA forecast, the tropical cyclone landfall is expected to be on Somali on 16 November 2003. Its potential impact will be intense heavy rains and damaging strong winds within the vicinity of the cyclone.

 

Expected impacts. Areas that are likely to be adversely affected by this storm are central Somali, parts of northern Somali (including Sool Plateau) and Somali region in Ethiopia, delineated in a red circle. Apart from these adverse impacts, the presence of this cyclone is generally expected to result in beneficial rains in the adjacent areas of southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya where the seasonal rains have been erratic and lighter than normal. This scenario is subject to change, but of now, it is well supported by the available data. FEWS NET and partners will continue to monitor the cyclone and provide regular updates.

 

Contacts and Web-site Links:

 

- FEWS NET Kenya and Somalia (nmutunga@fews.net, sidow@fews.net)

 

- USGS/FEWS NET - Nairobi (ggalu@fews.net, hgadain@fews.net)

 

- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/briefing.html (Africa Weather Hazard Briefing Page)

 

Readers are invited to visit www.fews.net/

 

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Related Documents:

Latest Emergency Updates: Horn of Africa Drought; Somalia

Latest By Country: Ethiopia; Kenya; Somalia

Other ReliefWeb documents by: USAID Famine Early Warning System Network

Source URL: http://www.fews.net/

 

 

Home Page: www.reliefweb.int

Email: comments@reliefweb.int

[nuune]

wixii shar ah ilaahoow ka leexi Somalia,khayrkana ilaahoow nagu soo qulquli,roob wanaagsan baan rajeenayaa inuu di'i doono xagga faalka markaan u kaco,

 

CIID WANAAGSAN

[ferocious]

Subxana allah.........my prayer go out them...

 

God i hate Geography :rolleyes: ,and their predictions

[Sophist]

Aloow kabadbaadi.

 

War caawa qof walba markuu Taraawiixda tukanaayo Alaah hakabaryo Masiibadan inta Rabi kaduwo.

 

Sophist