Scramble for South-Central Somalia begins

[General Duke]

Baardheera:Cabsi & Dhaqdhaqaaq ciidan oo baardheere kajirta.

 

Baardheere:(Allpuntland)-Wararka saaka ka imaanaya Degmada Baardheere ee Gobolka Gedo ayaa kusoo waramaya in Dhaqdhaqaaqyo ciidan oo abaabulan & Cabsi dagaali ay halkaas kajirto islamarkaasna ay shacabku cabsi badan ka qabaan in halkaas ay Dagaalo culusi ka qarxaan.

 

Cabsidan ayaa timid kadib markii ay Ciidamo katirsan kuwa Dawlada Kumeel gaarka ah & kuwo Ehlusuna oo shalay gelinkii danbe la wareegey Magaalada Baladxaawo ay maanta dhaqdhaqaaq ka bilaabeen deegaano katirsan Degmada Baardheere.

 

Goobjooge kusugan Baardheere ayaa APL u sheegey in ay jiraan Cabsi badani,wuxuuna sheegey in dhinaca Alshabaab ay maanta si weyn u xadidayaan Amaanka magaalada iyagoo la soconaya Dhaqdhaqaaqa halkaas ay kawadaan shacabka magaaladu.

 

Cabdiqani Xayir

Allpuntland

[General Duke]

Baladweyn:Dagaal saaka ka qarxay Duleedka Baladweyn & Kacsanaan kajirta gudaha Magaalada

 

Baladweyn:(Allpuntland)-Waxaa saaka Waaberigii Duleedka magaalada Baladweyn ee xarunta gobolka Hiiraan ka qarxay Dagaalo xoogan oo u dhexeeya Ciidamada Alshabaab & Ciidamo kale oo kooxo kaladuwani isku bahaysteen kuwaas oo ay kujiraan qaarkamid ah Ciidanka maamul dhawaan halkaas looga dhawaaqay & kuwa Dawalada kumeel gaarka ah ayna ka dhexmuuqdaan kuwa Ehlusuna.

 

Dagaalka ayaa weli si xawli ah ku socda,waxaanan jirin Faahfaahin rasmi ah oo laga helayo Dagaalka,maadaama uu kasocdo meel miyi ah,waxaana dadka deegaankaas oo ay APL la xiriirtay ah sheegeen in dagaaladu ay dhanka magaalada Baladweyn usoo durkeen.

 

Dagaalada Baladweyn kusoo dhawaaday ayaa keeney in xaalada magaalada Baladweyn ay aad u kacsanaato islamarkaasna ay waxaana jira Cabsi ay shacabku ka qabaan in Dagaalku uu gudaha magaalada soo galo.

 

Cabdiqani Xayir

Allpuntland

[General Duke]

The combatants fighting for power in the South Central part of Somalia..

 

We have;

 

1. Ala Shiekh Hotel TFG, controls Villa Somalia..

2. Clan militias, Ximan, Galmudug, Doxada Shabelle, Barre Hiiraale, Abdi Shukri

3. Ahlu Sunna, Xeeraale, Abudwaaq, and in Banadir, disconnected but with a single purpose to fight Al Shbaab and Takfiir group.

4. Al Shabaab, powerful militia who now control, Baidoa, Kismayu, Marka, most of Mogadishu, Jowhar, holding to Bebeldweyne, but just.

5. Hizbul Xasan Dahir Aways, or Hizb Islam as some call it, controls Ceelasha Biyaha area of Afgoyee. Has no other power aside from talking to Yusuf Garad.

6. AMISOM, the most powerful fighting force in Somalia and in no position to do anything to anyone, they control both the sea and aiport of Mogadishu and protect Al Shiekh untill they get instructions otherwise...

[General Duke]

Qasaaraha ka dhashay dagaalkii duleedka Baladweyne oo sii kordhay.

 

Baladweyne: (Sh. M. Network) Waxaa sii kordhey qasaaraha ka dhashay dagaal maanta Duleedka Magaalada Baladwewyne ee xarunta gobolka Hiiraan ku dhexmaray Ciidamada dowladda KMG Soomaaliya iyo xarakada Mujaahidiinta Al Shabaab iyadoo dagaalku uu ku sii fidey meelo u dhow Baladweyne.

 

Sida ay sheegayaan wararka ka imaanaya magaalada Baladweyne ee Xarunta gobolka Hiiraan waxaa sii kordhay qasaarahaa ka dhashay dagaalo mudo socday oo Maanta deegaanka Ceelgaal ee duleedka Magaalada Baladweyne ku dhexmaray Xarakada Mujaahidiinta AL Shababa iyo ciidamada dowladda kMG Soomaaliya.

 

Qaar ka mid ah dadka deegaanka ayaa Shabelle u sheegay galabta in dagaalkaasi uu sababay dhimashada ilaa 10 ruux oo u badan ciidamada dowladda KMG iyo kuwa Xarakada Mujaahidiinta Al Shabaab ee maanta ku dagaalamay deegaanka Ceelgaal, waxaana lagu soo waramayaa in ay jiraan dhaawacyo intaasi ka badan.

 

Dhaawacyada ciidamadii Xarakada Mujaahidiinta AL Shabaab ee ku dhaawacmay Dagaalka deegaanka Ceelgaal ayaa la soo gaarsiiyay Magaalada Baladweyne ee Xarunta gobolka Hiraan sida Idaacada Shabelle ay u sheegeen qaar ka mid ah dadka Magaaladaasi.

 

Mid ka mid ah odayaasha dhaqanka Magaalada Baladweyne ayaa Caawa Shabelle u xaqiijiyay in dagaalku sacadba saacada ka dambeysa uu sii xoogeysanayo, waxaana uu tilmaamay in uu haatan ku soo dhaawaday magaalada Baladweyne ee Xarunta gobolka Hiiraan.

 

Dagaalka maanta ku dhexmaray duleedka Baladweyne Ciidamada Xarakada Mujaahidiinta Al Shababa iyo kuwa dowladda KMG Soomaaliya ayaa waxaa uu saameyn ku yeeshay dadkii fara ku tiriska ahaa ee maalmihii u dambeeyay awoodi waayay in ay isaga cararaan deegaanada ay isku horfadhiyeen dhinacyada dagaalamay oo uu ka mid yahay deegaanka Ceel-gaal.

 

Majiro wali wax war ah oo ka soo baxay Maamulka Al Shabaab ee Baladweyne iyo saraakiisha dowladda KMG Soomaaliya ee gobolka Hiiraan, oo ku aadan dagaalka Maanta ku dhexmaray duleedka Magaalada Baladweyne iyo qasaaraha soo kala gaaray.

 

Aqriso oo la soco Shabelle.net Saacad Walba si aad u hesho wararkii ugu dambeeyay ee Soomaaliya.

[xiinfaniin]

It does begun indeed.

 

Recent US policy shift is begining to have a negative impact on South Central regions. Warlords are begining to emerege to lay claim on as many lands as they can in the hope of receiving developmental funds intended for those regions.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

^^ back to end 2006 all over again

[xiinfaniin]

xaaji xunjuf, I hope not. There are two barriers against warlords latest plans.

 

1- alshabaab

2- AMISOM + TFG

 

meaning even if warlords defeat alshabaab in a decisive way, they will have to face AMISOM + TFG over the control of those areas/regions.

[General Duke]

The warlords will gain ground, but the TFG Al Shiekh Hotel wont do anything it is expected to implode soon enough. That leaves the international troops that will be increased in the south over time.

 

Just like in 2006 it was the end of the clan warlords in the south, soon it will be the end of armed fake religious groups in the south. What will come is the difficult thing to predict.

 

Its another quagmire.

[xiinfaniin]

^^AMISOM and TFG are inseparable in the current reality.

[General Duke]

^^^AMISOM is here to stay, Ala Shiekh group is not, they will be together for the transition but not after that.

[xiinfaniin]

G Duke, I don’t have the AMISOM schedule adeer. But I am telling you AMISOM is here to support Sharif (TFG).

 

Also we don’t know what the backers of this entity have in mind in terms of giving it a life support for extending its term through a parliamentarian motion, or letting it to die after 8 months or so.

[Somalina]

Originally posted by General Duke:

^^^AMISOM is here to stay, Ala Shiekh group is not, they will be together for the transition but not after that.

[General Duke]

^^^No one doubts that AMISOM are here to protect the TFG, but the international community keeps calling for the end to the transition, and Sharif's performance has not impressed anyone, aside from his die hard supporters.

 

Whats important to the powers behind AMISOM, thus far is an end to the "Transition", the passage of the new charter and the policy of supporting the North States.

 

Ala Shiekh group opposes every single one of these policies.

[General Duke]

Just this week we have seen fighting in Gedo, Hiiraan outside it capital Beledweyne. We have seen Cadaado & Dhusamareb

I'm Galgaduus change hands several times and around 30 civilians killed in Mogadishu alone. Yet there is hope for Sharif Ahmed and Ala Shiekh?