Castro Posted January 6, 2007 Mogadishu on the brink of guerrilla war as Islamists leave a power vacuum in their wake EVEN AS the Ethiopian Army began its assault this weekend on the "final" stronghold of the Islamists who have ruled Somalia for the past six months, the defeated faction was already reverting to a guerrilla war that will mean yet more suffering for people in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian soldiers, backed by tanks, armoured cars and jet-fighter-bombers, are pursuing hundreds of Islamist fighters into the dense Ras Kamboni mangrove forest at the southern tip of Somalia between the Indian Ocean coastline and the Kenyan border. Here the Ethiopians hope to declare victory for Somalia's fragile, secular, unelected Transitional Federal Government (TFG) - which has the seal of approval of the African Union and the United Nations - over the Union of Islamic Courts, which has ruled the country since June. continued... But the Ethiopians will inevitably find that their two-week-long blitzkrieg has been the easy part of the pacification of Somalia, whose new interior minister, Hussein Farah Aideed, son of a notorious warlord, admitted: "We have only a symbolic government. Ministries we don't have, a military we don't have. We're limited." Aideed's father, the late Mohammed Farah Aideed, was targeted by US soldiers in a failed raid in 1993 that led to the ignominious deaths of 18 American troops and the US withdrawal from Somalia. The rusted parts of the US Black Hawk helicopters shot down in that incident still lie on the ground in Mogadishu, the Somali capital. African analysts are asking: does Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's prime minister, think he is Africa's George W Bush? "We're going to turn this place into another Iraq," construction worker Abdullah Hashi said in reaction to the entry of Ethiopian troops into Mogadishu. Hashi said he was a member of a new anti-Ethiopian underground, with many other signs of an emerging resistance by Somalis who, whatever their differences, are generally united by dislike of neighbouring Ethiopia. Masked gunmen, shouting anti-Ethiopian slogans, are already emerging on the streets of the capital, a sure sign that a classic guerrilla resistance is underway. Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem, a Uganda-based political analyst and deputy director (Africa) for the United Nations' Millennium Campaign, said: "If a country with almost 100% Muslims wants to be governed Islamically, how undemocratic is this the overthrow of the Islamic Courts administration? Does Meles not realise that the Transitional Federal Government will remain a puppet regime?" The comparison with Iraq is inevitable, but the Ethiopians and the TFG face a problem that the Western allies in Iraq did not: the West toppled Saddam Hussein who was widely hated, but the Union of Islamic Courts enjoyed more support among Somalis than any other of their rulers in past decades. Though the puritanical courts frowned on films, dancing and music - widely enjoyed by Somalis, who tend to interpret their Islam liberally - the people of the towns welcomed the fact that life was safe under the courts' rule. People put away their guns, but they are again unlocking them in anticipation of anarchy. People threw support, whether reluctantly or enthusiastically, behind the Islamists because they established order, replacing the warlords who ruled by thuggery, threats and bribes. The courts managed to get the country's economy moving again, reopening Mogadishu's airport and seaport after they had been closed to commercial traffic for more than 11 years. WITH Somalia fundamentally unstable, with many weapons still in the hands of warlords, divided into complex clans, subclans and sub-subclans, it is totally unclear how the TFG intends to establish its writ. The task is daunting. The TFG has somehow to try to piece together a country that has not had a functioning government for 15 years. Those years have been marked by the fall of a dictator, general Mohammed Siyad Barre, followed by a civil war; the rise of a coalition of warlords; the failed US intervention; the overthrow of the warlords by the Islamic Courts; and now the arrival of yet another foreign army from a hated neighbour. Among the most important subtexts of the saga is the suspected presence in Somalia of at least three al-Qaeda-linked operators accused of involvement in the 1988 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and attacks on other Western targets. This explains US support for Ethiopia's invasion; the presence of the US 5th Fleet, normally based in Bahrain, off the Somali coast; and reports by intelligence sources that US special forces are operating on the Somalia-Kenya border. The Ethiopian-US grand design looks like turning into a very long war. High-level negotiations have begun to send in an African Union peacekeeping force. But given the failure of underfunded and undersupplied AU peacekeepers in Darfur, it is hard to see why they can hope to succeed in the even more fearsome cauldron of Somalia. Sunday Herald Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted January 6, 2007 ^^^Your wishes and the predictions of the western media wont come to naught, who will wage this gurrela war? You, and those who predicted a regional war, remmeber that? Mogadishu is clam, with some groups hiding behind the women and children and holding demo's. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Caano Geel Posted January 6, 2007 this is sadly predictable, lets hope the "We're going to turn this place into another Iraq," doesnt happen. The sooner the ethiopians leave and the Theives actually do diplomacy, the better. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted January 6, 2007 ^^^CG, you seem to be an honest individual, but all you have to do is go backa few weeks and remmeber all the predictions of a "regional war", sucking in the whole Horn, what has come of it? Now all the "experts" predict an Iraq style insurgency, what? Who will prosecute this war, the make belief army in cyberspace, those who predicted they would kick the TFG out of Baidoa? We have turned a corner, will there be some policing operations? yes, will there be trouble, by the scrapmerchants, clan courts supporters? yesits to be expected, but a war? No Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wisdom_Seeker Posted January 6, 2007 The resistance will come from the people, who are getting more and more impatient by the second. The Ethiopian troops should be given three days to pack and leave, if not then they have other intentions which are not beneficial to the Somalis or Somalia for that matter and should not be trusted. The sooner the Ethiopians leave the better. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted January 6, 2007 ^^^The "people" all we have so far is certain individuals who where getting rich of the clan courts, like Daylaf, and a few "business" groups who are hiding behind the women and children. They will lead a clan insurgency, another lame prediction by those who "Regional war", a blood bath, "Baioda will be captured by courts" and now they are predicting the worst a clan warfare within Mogadishu, to set the people further back. It seems, Xasan Dahir is using the old adage of "If I can not eat this meat I will put in mud so no one can". We have past those dark days, alhamdulilah. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fiqikhayre Posted January 6, 2007 An Iraqi-like insurgency springing up in Somalia or guerilla war as described by the Sunday Herald is quite feasible! Somalia will become just like another Iraq, yep it will most definately! Remember folks, we have a large border with Eritrea, which will try to fuel the insurgency just like the Iranians are doing in Iraq. Yeah and to our west their is the deseart kingdom of Samaale, where there is no effictive border control and from which insurgents can lauch their attacks inside Somalia and leave as soon as possible! No one can control that border as it is mostly sand and triabal no-mands land, where money and video-tapes to encourage jihadists are smuggled out! Yeah further more to the North-Easterns and Western we have 'Assyriya-Ajurania' effectively giving sanctuary and harbouring to the UIC leadership! Yeah one thing I forget, Somalia is very mountainous country, remember the 'Hora-Lora' impressive mountain-range a perfect hide out! And who can I forget 'Al-Wasinistaan province' tribal hinterland in the Somal Kush in the border of Garissaistan! The big jungle a gobi desseart like jungle bigger than that of Vietman, where the UIC fighters are currently hiding! Yeah our country is not narrow aswell its actually 'bright' like LA-New York! Somalia is alos a complex country with a near population of 45 million! Ethnicities that don't look alike and speak the same language! Last but not least Somalia is not just like a big village whereby everyone knows each other by their surnames, names, nick-names, grandfather names and clans! In Somalia we need ID's because we don't know who is who! But our greatest misfortune is to have a long border with Eritrea! All the good work, that has been done now will be undone! Because money, weaponary, political support will be given by our 'neighbour' Eritrea! But wait a minute for a guerilla war to start they don't need Eritrea or a base in a foreign country! Remember the Somali jabhads, that didn't had any foothold in another foreign country! They were all based in the gobi-like jungle! With their own airfields and resources etc. Libya was supporting them in terms of military hardware and medicine apaart from that they were absolutely 'self-reliant'! Expect Guerilla warfare and an Iraqi like insurgency inshallaah! All the ingredients mentioned above have the potential to push Somalia into a long guerialla war that is unlikely to end until the dirty Ethio's withdraw ofcourse, in a matter of days Aweys and Abuukar Caddaan will be back, even more quicker than the former warlords did before them! See you inshallaah, keep it up! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted January 7, 2007 In Somalia we need ID's because we don't know who is who! But our greatest misfortune is to have a long border with Eritrea! All the good work, that has been done now will be undone! Because money, weaponary, political support will be given by our 'neighbour' Eritrea! Not to mention the 400,000 strong clan courts army that has now melted into Mogadishu, and will wage the war through their Mukhabarat [secret service] and who will make the country un governable. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wisdom_Seeker Posted January 7, 2007 Duke it is pitiful that you always think that if you blame others for every problem the TFG has, that it will go away. Aweys is nowhere near Mogadishu. These people took to the streets on their own. Majority were against the Ethiopian invasion, while the others were against the discriminate disarming of the people of Mogadishu, while there are thousands of Ethiopian troops and warlords who are pouring into the city. The TFG needs to fix the problems they have motivated. It was the TFG who brought Ethiopian militias in Somali soil not the ICU. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted January 7, 2007 ^^^What majority, a city of a million or more and a couple of hundred are the majority? There is enough evidance that certain dupious business groups were behidn this demo. To coincide with the forcefull arms removal date. Thus the protest was about keeping the clan guns and nothing else. The TFG will try to fix things,but one can not fix some people who used to look up to the likes of IndaCade as a leader. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wisdom_Seeker Posted January 7, 2007 And now you want them to look up to warlord Abdullahi Yusuf as a leader. They will be better of if they supported Indha-Caddey than Yeey. You allegations are unsubstantiated, what prove do you have that the businessmen are behind this protest. You have seen it, there was hardly any person from Mogadishu who handed in their weapon voluntarily. And sxb there was no protest then. People just said straightforward “dream-on, you will have to kill me before you take this gun out of my hand while there are Ethiopian militias and warlords returning in Somalia” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
General Duke Posted January 7, 2007 ^^^Mystic here is the basic problem with you. Your first mistake is to call H.E Abdullahi Yusuf a warlord, thus if he is one so where, Egal, Tuur, Abdiqasin, Imsael Omar Gulleh and many other Somali leaders across the region. Yuusf was decorated war hero, who fought for Somalia in both 1964 & 1977-78 wars, a factional leader of the SSDF, like Tuur & Silanyo where the SNM. He is the founding leader of Puntland state, and has worked hard to keep the state together, and he was elected in an open election defeating, Cadow, A/Qasin and many others including all the warlords. Thus to compare him to the truck driver, or even prison warden Xasan Dahir who through a clan gang millitia colonised other unarmed people region, is ludicrous and beyond undertsanding. Thus go back and learn Somali history and dont rely on the hearsay you hear from lay people. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wisdom_Seeker Posted January 7, 2007 It is amusing when you write a bunch of nonsense to praise warlord Yusuf. What you have to say is nothing but hearsay, thanks for the advice. I will not waste time heeding what you have to puke. Once a warlord forever a warlord. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
