Somalia's peackeeping conundrum

[Jabhad]

Somalia's peackeeping conundrum

By Joseph Winter

BBC News website

Thursday, 7 December 2006, 16:59 GMT

 

 

The UN Security Council's resolution on sending peacekeeping troops to Somalia has sparked a furious reaction from the Islamists who control much of the country, even though there is no prospect of foreign soldiers setting foot on Somali territory for many months, if not years.

 

 

Even the East African body, Igad, which originally made the request, is deeply divided on the wisdom of sending troops into a country awash with weapons and which has not had an effective national government for 15 years.

 

 

The resolution, passed unanimously by the 15-member council provides for an 8,000-strong force, to be known as Igasom, to protect Somalia's weak government in Baidoa, the only town it controls.

 

 

A European diplomat who closely follows events in Somalia told the BBC News website: "There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before it's implemented."

 

 

'Invaders'

 

 

Matt Bryden, Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank, agrees for several reasons:

 

 

Firstly, the resolution does not mention who would pay for the force - a key consideration.

 

 

The reality is the government is deeply unpopular and the UIC has filled the vacuum they have vacated

 

 

Matt Bryden

International Crisis Group

 

 

Secondly, states which border Somalia are excluded from sending troops, because they are seen as having their own interests in the country, especially Ethiopia.

 

 

This only leaves three Igad members - Eritrea, Sudan and Uganda - and of these, only Uganda is in favour of the Somali mission.

 

 

Uganda is not going to send 8,000 troops by itself, although there is a possibility that other African countries could volunteer soldiers.

 

 

After the United States' debacle in Mogadishu in the 1990s, no western country is going to send troops to Somalia - and they would only further inflame the Islamists.

 

 

Thirdly, the virulent Islamist opposition to peacekeepers will not encourage other countries to risk sending their troops to Somalia.

 

 

Why does the UN want to go in now that the Islamists have done a better job than the UN would ever have done.

 

 

 

 

 

"Deploying foreign forces to Somalia is seen as invading forces and the Somali people are prepared to defend themselves against aggression," Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) official Ibrahim Adow told the BBC.

 

 

He said that the Islamists had succeeded in bringing peace and security to the areas under their control - most of southern Somalia.

 

 

"We see this as creating instability in Somalia. Most of Somalia is peaceful," Mr Adow said.

 

 

'Fundamental misunderstanding'

 

 

But the UIC have been most vocal in their opposition to Ethiopia troops, who are specifically ruled out of contributing to the peace force.

 

 

Optimists hope this clause will be enough to persuade the Islamists to agree to back the resolution.

 

 

The European diplomat further suggests that the peace force could deter regional states from intervening in Somalia.

 

 

There have been fears that Ethiopia and its rival Eritrea could fight a proxy war in Somalia.

 

 

Mr Bryden, however, says that the resolution could in fact tip the precarious situation in Somalia over the edge.

 

 

"Militants within the courts could now take pre-emptive action against the government before the peacekeepers are deployed," he says.

 

 

He says the idea of a peacekeeping force comes from far-away officials who "fundamentally misunderstand the situation".

 

 

"From a distance, this is a broad-based government established in Somalia, which is under pressure.

 

 

"The reality is the government is deeply unpopular and the UIC has filled the vacuum they have vacated."

 

 

Skirmishes

 

 

Other Somali observers, such as Festus Aboagye from South Africa's Institute for Security Studies, are more supportive of the UN resolution and its backing for the government.

 

 

"Granted, the UIC holds sway over large sectors of Somalia, nonetheless it is not the legitimate government of Somalia," he told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.

 

 

The European diplomat insists that the proposed force is intended to provide protection for the "institutions which the international community and the UIC recognise" and to train a future national security force.

 

 

He stresses that this force is not intended to threaten anyone and should be welcomed by all those who are committed to peace.

 

 

The US, Ethiopia and the Somali government have accused the UIC of being in league with al-Qaeda and say they want to destabilise East Africa.

 

 

The UIC strongly denies such suggestions.

 

 

Despite increasingly belligerent statements and the odd minor skirmish in recent weeks, the UIC and the government are due to resume peace talks in Sudan.

 

 

If that leads to an agreement, any peace force could be redirected to monitoring that deal.

 

 

The effects of the UN resolution on the prospect for a deal are not clear, however.

 

 

Mr Aboagye says it will reduce the military inequality between the two sides and so make an agreement more likely.

 

 

But Mr Bryden says it could reduce pressure on the hard-pressed government to reach a deal.

 

 

Over the past 15 years of conflict and anarchy, Somalis have grown used to seeing peace agreements come and go.

 

 

The one setting up the government two years ago was wildly feted but has not brought about peace.

 

 

They hope that before too long, there really will be a peace to be kept, whether by foreigners, or a national security force.

[Jabhad]

Thu Dec 7, 2006 7:45am ET

By Sahal Abdulle

 

 

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somalia's powerful Islamist movement said on Thursday that U.N. endorsement of an African peacekeeping force will "add fuel to the fire" in the Horn of Africa nation that many fear is on the verge of all-out war.

 

 

But the interim government -- whose aspirations of restoring central rule to Somalia were dented by the rise of the Islamists this year -- welcomed the prospect of military support and cited resolution promoter the United States for thanks.

 

 

The U.N. Security Council endorsed the peacekeepers on Wednesday to help prop up the Western-backed government of President Abdullahi Yusuf. But it also urged the authorities to pursue peace talks with their Islamist rivals.

 

 

After pressure on Washington from the European Union, the final resolution barred peacekeepers from border states, whose presence in Somalia was viewed as potentially inflammatory.

 

 

"The U.N. authorizing new weapons is like adding fuel to the fire," Islamist spokesman Abdirahman Ali Mudey told Reuters.

 

 

Ibrahim Hassan Addow, the Islamists' de facto foreign minister, said his militarily strong movement would forcibly resist any peacekeeping forces.

 

 

"Somalia is at peace now and we see this as an attack and introducing destruction back to Somalia," he said. "We see this as an invading force and we will have to defend our country.

 

 

Diplomats, however, see any actual arrival of peacekeepers as still a long way off, saying the U.N. resolution may be designed more for political than practical impact at the moment.

 

 

Let alone unresolved issues of funding and other logistics, fears that peacekeepers may attract foreign jihadists to Somalia may also make the African Union baulk at sending in soldiers.

 

 

Al Qaeda head Osama bin Laden said soon after the Islamists' June takeover of Mogadishu that any deployment of foreign forces in Somalia would be seen as an anti-Muslim "crusade".

 

 

SOMALI GOVERNMENT THANKS U.S.

 

 

Government officials in Baidoa, the only town it controls in Somalia, praised the U.N. move and thanked its main backers, the United States. The government's bid to restore central rule for the first time since 1991 has been dented by the Islamists' rise and takeover of a swathe of southern Somalia including the capital Mogadishu since June.

 

 

"We welcome this decision and we are thanking all the members of the Security Council, especially the American government which tabled the resolution," Deputy Defense Minister Salad Ali Jelle told Reuters.

 

 

"This will bring solutions not war."

 

 

U.N. special envoy to Somalia, Francois Lonseny Fall, said the east African inter-governmental body IGAD and the AU would now flesh out the plans.

 

 

"All that is left is to determine the financing," he said.

 

 

The Islamists and government had been due to meet in Sudan next week for talks. But that looks unlikely now due to the controversy over the peacekeeping issue.

 

 

(Additional reporting by Marie-Louise Gumuchian in Nairobi)

 

 

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

[Kamalu Diin]

I don't know where TFG is less popular than USC/ICU warmoners.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

All over somalia, other than i guess puntland, even some of the S-landers are against this warlord-government. It is sad that you don't even know when you are seen as a piece of meat on the ground.

[Kamalu Diin]

Do you think people from Gedo 700,000 people, Jubada Dhexe 450,000 people, Jubada Hoose 850,000, Bay 900,000, Bakool 380,000, Shabeleha Dhexe 1,100,000.. they care about USC/ICU.... give me breack about 4.5 million people are not with USC/ICU except under accupation.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Stop with this USC/ICU nonsense you ********

 

I am not from their tribe yet i still support them and what gives you the idea that all those people oppose the ICU.

 

*************** *********

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Aflagaadada jooji, baliis

 

[ December 08, 2006, 02:38 AM: Message edited by: Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar ]

[Kamalu Diin]

ICU Just like their predesors USC are running with guns, and they think the gun will bring every thing underthem.

 

Kismayu Aantee haa

Marka Aantee haa

Hargayso ku Dar Ya ka dheh.

Galkayo ku Dar wir wir wir wir