US taking dangerous gamble in Mogadishu

[Castro]

Martin Fletcher

December 30, 2006

 

ETHIOPIAN troops, with Washington's tacit approval, have routed the Islamists who seized power in Somalia last June. The official Government forged by the international community in 2004 can take power. Good news, surely?

As one of the few journalists to have visited Mogadishu recently, I fear it is not. Far from restoring stability to Somalia, this week's developments could plunge the country back into the protracted anarchy from which it only recently emerged.

 

What struck me most forcefully during a week in Mogadishu this month was the gulf between the White House's view of the Council of Islamic Courts and that of the Somali people.

 

To Washington, the council is - or was - a new Taliban: al-Qa'ida sympathisers who were turning Somalia into a haven for terrorists including those responsible for the US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

 

That may or may not be true, but most Somalis welcomed the rise of the council because it banished the warlords who had reduced their country to chaos during 15 years of civil war. For the first time in a generation, people could walk the streets in safety.

 

Gone were the ubiquitous checkpoints where the warlords' militias extorted and killed. Guns were banned. The Somalis who had fled the violence were returning from abroad. The council did reintroduce public executions, ban the narcotic qat, and discourage Western music, films and dancing, but that seemed a small price to pay.

 

Most Somalis detested the official Government, which was created after two years of tortuous negotiations in Kenya between rival Somali factions, but was stranded in the town of Baidoa until this week because it dared not return to Mogadishu. The so-called Transitional Federal Government contains some of the warlords the Islamists drove out in June. It has relied for its survival on thousands of troops from US-backed Ethiopia, Somalia's most bitter enemy, whose Christian Government feared the Islamists would foment trouble among its own sizeable Muslim minority.

 

Washington backed the warlords in their losing battle against the Islamists. And it tacitly approved Ethiopia's military intervention to support the TFG.

 

It has even been passing aerial surveillance reports to Addis Ababa, according to US news reports.

 

Preoccupied with the spectre of Islamic terrorism, the White House is thus party to an attempt by a repressive regime in Ethiopia to replace a popular de facto government in Somalia with a widely reviled official one. It is a dangerous gamble.

 

The best - but least likely - outcome is that the TFG offers some sort of power-sharing deal to the leaders of Somalia's powerful Abgal and Habar Gidir clans. A more likely scenario is that the TFG fails to impose its authority, and Somalia returns to the clan warfare that has plagued it since 1991.

 

Equally possibly, the Islamists may have made a tactical retreat before launching a long and bloody guerilla war against the TFG and the Ethiopian troops that back it.

 

There are plenty of jihadists from Iraq, Afghanistan and the rest of the Islamic world eager to open another front in their holy war.

 

Some regional experts believe Washington should have encouraged any regime that brought stability to Somalia, even an Islamic one. Their fear now is that if Somalia is not already the terrorist breeding ground Washington claims it is, it will quickly become one if reduced once more to lawlessness.

 

The Australian

[Caano Geel]

^ Martin Fletcher is a London Times writer, this is the original article . And, he's been on the radio for the past week wailing this message (to no effect) as loud as he could.

 

Actually and surprisingly the London Times (a Rupert Murdoch paper) has been covering somalia at much greater depth than any of other English dailies.

 

Castro

You'll this intersting also:

 

 

---

 

Analysis: a military victory but Somalia vacuum looms

 

Rob Crilly, who has been covering the conflict in Somalia for The Times, says the Government's swift defeat of the Islamist militias, with the help of Ethiopia, suggests nothing more than a return to the political vacuum that has endangered the country for 15 years:

 

"There are lots of things up in the air today and it's too early to know quite what is happening in Mogadishu, but there are a few things that are clear. The first is that the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) simply could not cope with the firepower of the Ethiopian forces, who are fighting on behalf of Somalia's interim Government.

 

"The Islamic court militias, mainly made up of young, badly-trained fighters had no answer to the well-drilled, well-equipped Ethiopians and were defeated again and again.

 

"This has led to a rapid military victory for the Government and the taking of Mogadishu. The question is what happens next. Although until now the UIC was nominally in control of Mogadishu, and much of the country, ultimately power resides with the clan elders. If you have the support of the clan elders, you're in business.

 

"What we learned today is that last night, the Government approached the clan elders in Mogadishu and asked them to withdraw their support for the Islamic courts. They have done that, and without their backing, the court leaders left the city. What is less clear is whether the clan elders will now stand four-square behind the interim-Government, which beyond the support of the UN and the international community, has little legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Somalis.

 

"As for the UIC, they have now suffered a series of setbacks and most of their leaders are believed to be gathering in Kismayo, a town they still control in the very south of the country. Along the way, they have been distributing their weapons and their fighters among the clan elders. Some of the more practical-minded and moderate leaders will be expected to come to an agreement with the Government, but a big question remains over what the hardliners do next.

 

"Among these hardliners are a group known as the Shabbab: young fighters, fundamentalists, some of whom are Afghan-trained. They are believed to be responsible for the murder of Kate Peyton, the BBC producer, in Mogadishu last year and various attacks on aid workers.

 

"They really have no option but to fight. They are regarded as outlaws by the Government and may have the capability to launch a prolonged guerrilla war.

 

"Somalia's problem now is that there is a political vacuum, much in the same way there was six months ago. The Ethiopians have fought their way to Mogadishu, effectively giving the interim Government control over much of the country, but what happens when they withdraw? No one seems to have given much thought to what happens next, or what form a political settlement might take.

 

"Some of the analysts I have been speaking to today have compared the situation to Iraq: a swift military victory but with no plan for the peace. Somalia is almost back where it was six months ago, before the rise of the Islamic courts. Are they finished for good or will they come back? Or will the Government be able to win enough support in Mogadishu?"

 

source

[Castro]

There's a slim chance the TFG can pull off the biggest upset of all and bring the country back on its feet. But seeing how they got to where they are now, that chance is so slim it's practically nil.

[ElPunto]

^Hmmm - I would put the odds at better than that. Mainly because Somalia is starting off at such a low base - any incremental comprehensive improvement would be more than people have seen for a very long time. Man - if they could ensure that the Somali passport can become functioning again - many would be grateful.

[Caano Geel]

castro

I think that kind of irrational faith is called hope, so lets hope ...

[Castro]

Originally posted by ThePoint:

[QB] ^Hmmm - I would put the odds at better than that. Mainly because Somalia is starting off at such a low base - any incremental comprehensive improvement would be more than people have seen for a very long time. Man - if they could ensure that the Somali passport can become functioning again - many would be grateful.

They're not starting at a low base. Muqdisho was in relatively good shape when these goons arrived. So I disagree. And a passport is only as good as the countries that recognize it. Printing rainbow colored passports does not a government make.

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by Castro:

quote:Originally posted by ThePoint:

[QB] ^Hmmm - I would put the odds at better than that. Mainly because Somalia is starting off at such a low base - any incremental comprehensive improvement would be more than people have seen for a very long time. Man - if they could ensure that the Somali passport can become functioning again - many would be grateful.

They're not starting at a low base. Muqdisho was in relatively good shape when these goons arrived. So I disagree. And a passport is only as good as the countries that recognize it. Printing rainbow colored passports does not a government make.

Well - everything is relative! But removing checkpoints and establishing basic security in Mog was regarded as a big achievement only several months ago - so I'm not sure how much of a base has developed in Mog in that short time.

 

As to the passports - time will tell. Though one would think that a widely recognized government once it gets going would have its passports accepted as it is the 'legitimate' authority, no?

[Castro]

"Widely recognized" are the key words, aren't they? How widely recognized is Karzai? Or Al-Maliki? Legitimacy is a critical condition of any government, yaa LePoint, and the TFG sorely lacks it. And what little they had, they lost in the past few weeks. In addition to the monumental task of rebuilding the country physically, there's an even greater hurdle and that is legitimizing the illegitimate. There's no new blood here. It's the same old killers wearing different coats. I would have to suffer severe and sudden amnesia to support the TFG in their quest for power. Specially not after what happened in the past ten days.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

I think that kind of irrational faith is called hope, so lets hope .

Its not irrational faith Caano. When everything is pointing to the success of the Government, to say it will not succeed is the an irraational hope. People, terror supporters, we have seen your nosensical analysis and view of things, please call it a day already. The Government is now in control the whole country with the exception of three regions and kismayo. How many of you said that that would never happen? I know its a Somali trite to never own up to being wrong but to start making predictions that are even more remote then then ones that turned up to be wrong is, well, a little crazy. Take a break and see wither or not the government succeeds beyond this, or give opinion based fact and reason people.

[Faarax-Brawn]

There is a fundamental difference of opinion here Castro/Caano. Some Somalis[Aptly reffered to now as door knobs] Believe that letting the enemy of somalia fight their wars for them by invading their country are justified. Other somalis[Aptly called Proud,patriotic Wadanis] are of against these invasion and see the re emergence[by invasion] of the warlords of yesteryears as a turning point. Simply Put,The first Group are blind dabadhilifs of an illegitimate govt that used the power of 2 bullies to invade while the other group are patriotic somalis.

 

Now,If this Xabashi led govt can pull this off and reclaim the Wadan,is another whole argument for another 2years,Allah ya Waclam.But History will judge and hopefully these men will be made to answer this one day,Either by Allah or by a future somali truth and reconciliation tribunal. As of now,There is no more country called Somalia but an occupied nation.

[Caano Geel]

Naxar

Lets for a moment go by the recent history of *actual* events:

 

Exactly what have the members of the TFG achieved in the last 17 years individually or collectively, other than ousting Bare, and the ritualistic blood letting of the people of somalia and their respective militias.

 

Look the only achivement you can attribute to them so far is the mule swapping that result is its current face.

 

So partisan policits aside, saaxiib, as an *ideally rational* being, based on their past performance, expecting any change is a leap of faith

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by Castro:

"Widely recognized" are the key words, aren't they? How widely recognized is Karzai? Or Al-Maliki? Legitimacy is a critical condition of any government, yaa LePoint, and the TFG sorely lacks it. And what little they had, they lost in the past few weeks. In addition to the monumental task of rebuilding the country physically, there's an even greater hurdle and that is legitimizing the illegitimate. There's no new blood here. It's the same old killers wearing different coats. I would have to suffer severe and sudden amnesia to support the TFG in their quest for power. Specially not after what happened in the past ten days.

Castro - you need wide recognition and authority . That is what is missing from Karzai and Maliki. You have seen how quickly 'authority' was established by the ICU and then TFG. Strangely enough - it did not take very much in the way of force, manpower or money for either side. Because the populace is sick and tired of war. At present - TFG and their allies seem to wield the authority. Time will tell what they do with it. As to legitimacy - I think Somalis will judge that by results especially for the long-suffering south. A/Y is a warlord but when he led Puntland - most acknowledged that some improvement had been made. As such - the TFG has 2 out of the 3 - recognition and authority. And as you know, authority has conferred legitimacy in many a dictatorship anyway!

 

As to warlords - they will be around for at least another generation. Many will support 'their' warlord. I think comprises must be made with the less murderous ones and those others should be told to retire or else.

[Castro]

^ Fair though overly rosy.

[ElPunto]

^Well - you know what they say about Amxaaro/Tigree loving, unpatriotic, treasonous, anti-Muslim, gaalo-raac, munafaq dhabadilifs - don't ya?

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

The real wadanis, Brown, are the people who always have the interest of their people at heart. You and other who think like you are far from that. WE can have different opinion on what this interest of the Somali people is but is not our return to statehood our number one interest. Occupation, also, my friend is not how you define it to be. It is when one country takes over another, for what ever reason. If we are to define occupation as whats happening in Somalia, lets just say most of the world is occupied. It has accord again and agian in history, that when the government of a nation is besiged, it asks for the assistance of its allies for help. That is what Somalia has done. A few days. Our government will be in power, Ethiopian troops will be thanked for their assistance and sent back, and you will hate The president, prime minister and the rest of the government. aside from we are an occupied nation (The state of our nation for the past sixteen years is worst then any occupation I can imagen) what will be your excuse for not supporting our government?