Jabhad Posted January 5, 2007 World Affairs How hopes of peace have evaporated Rageh Omaar Published 08 January 2007 Print version Listen Welcome to an uncertain and dangerous 2007 For the Arab world, 2007 began several weeks ago with a series of events that will be central to the politics of the Middle East and the Islamic world in the coming year and will make it tumultuous in more ways than one. Before Christmas, I wrote of a war almost certain to start between an Islamist movement, holding power in Somalia (my country), and neighbouring Ethiopia. The US was encouraging Ethiopia to invade and oust the Islamist group. Neither Washington nor Addis Ababa wanted to draw much attention to this war and so they launched their invasion on Christmas Eve. As I write, Ethiopian forces using fighter bombers, helicopters and tanks are occupying swaths of Somalia, including its shattered capital, Mogadishu. Barely any government or international body has said a word. The Islamists have retreated, taking much of their weaponry with them into the bush, and the weak and warlord-dominated transitional government, despised by most Somalis, has been brought to power and into the capital under Ethiopian guns. There is no doubt that the Islamist militiamen were being supported and funded from Arab states, either by governments or by Islamic movements. But there is also no doubt that the Islamists were genuinely popular, if only because they had ended the venal rule of the warlords who had preyed on Somali society. What's more, the Islamists had restored security to Mogadishu for the first time in years. The UN believes that Ethiopia's invasion has displaced at least 30,000 people and killed hundreds. As Ethiopia expelled the Islamists from Somalia, brinkmanship over Iran's alleged nuclear weapons programme passed a significant milestone. On 23 December, the UN Security Council voted in favour of imposing limited sanctions on Iran because of Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment. In truth, Washington has found it hard to convince others of the need to confront Iran robustly and had to fight tooth and nail to get these limited, cosmetic sanctions in place. But a symbolic red line was crossed, producing fury in Tehran, where the ruling authorities realised that Iran would face a lot more harrying over the nuclear issue in 2007. With an increasingly desperate and still ideologically zealous Bush administration, military action cannot be ruled out. In the same week, Washington got predictable support from Tony Blair who made absurd tub-thumping pronouncements to a bemused audience in Dubai. Iran was "at war" with the "moderate Arab world" and had to be confronted, he said. And, just as 2007 hove into view, came the recklessly sectarian execution of Saddam Hussein, even down to the detail of killing him on the day Sunnis celebrate the Eid al-Adha festival, rather than the following day, when it is celebrated by Shias. The worst is yet to come in Iraq. I find it hard to believe, but Blair, George W Bush and their Iraqi allies have made a former dictator seem a hard act to follow. Those of us who reported from Iraq while Saddam was in power can hardly believe that the man who murdered hundreds of thousands and invaded two neighbouring countries has been made to seem dignified while his executioners, Shia Iraqis, appear like balaclava-wearing thugs. In Lebanon, only the most fragile of ceasefires holds in check the unfinished war between Hezbollah and Israel. In Afghanistan, time has run out for the Nato commander who said the west had six months to turn the security sit uation around. That the Taliban, who once destroyed journalists' cameras, now court western reporters suggests they feel the tide of events is with them. Welcome to an uncertain and dangerous 2007. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Laba-X Posted January 5, 2007 Published 08 January 2007 ??? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
