Ethiopia: On a dilemma in the Horn

[Che -Guevara]

Feb 22nd 2007 | ADDIS ABABA

Should the West go on helping a repressive Ethiopia?

 

THE second most populous country in Africa and one of the poorest, Ethiopia is a test case for the West in its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty on the continent. But its government's undemocratic leanings have presented donor countries with a dilemma. Should they continue to funnel their taxpayers' money to a country that routinely jails and tortures its critics or should they turn off the tap and thereby hurt the blameless poor?

 

Most donors are keeping up or even increasing their giving. Britain, with qualms, is upping its aid from $180m last year to $260m this year. Some donors have harmonised and even pooled their support. Many have signed up to schemes to promote transparency and hold the government to account. Whether the nastier bits of Ethiopia's government will co-operate fully is moot.

 

 

So the donors—Western governments and charities—think that on balance they should continue to improve farming, health care, education and access to water in the rural areas where 85% of Ethiopians live. There are signs that the government's ambitious poverty-reduction strategy is working. Infant mortality is down, school attendance and literacy are up, though only 40% of Ethiopians can read and write.

 

Farming practice may be improving. In Ethiopia's wet highlands farmers may try to diversify crops. Ethiopia hopes to export hydroelectricity to neighbouring Djibouti and Sudan. Some agronomists think that, with enough investment, Ethiopia will be able to feed itself. That may be optimistic. The population of 75m-plus is growing by about 2m a year. Food prices in Addis Ababa, the capital, rose last year by 27%.

 

In any event, Meles Zenawi's government is finding it hard to run the show. Some 80% of the people in Addis Ababa probably back opposition parties. In response, the government has become harsher, muzzling free speech and forcing independent newspapers to close. Many journalists are in jail on trumped-up charges. Dissidents have been disappearing, along with critical websites. Telephones are often tapped. For more than a year, text messaging on the country's small number of mobile phones has been hampered by “technical difficulties”.

 

The government keeps up a hum of fear with attacks on opposition supporters. Teachers are a favourite target. Some have been beaten so badly in detention they could not stand up in court. Even schoolchildren have faced the authorities' wrath. In Ambo, west of the capital, some 14 of them in a secondary school were detained; some were allegedly tortured. The usual charges, if brought at all, are sabotage or treason. Suspects are often “found” to have links with familiar bogeymen: neighbouring hostile Eritrea; the Oromo Liberation Front, a movement in the centre and south; or, in the heartland of the once-ruling Amhara around Addis Ababa, “terrorist groups” whose existence is fuzzy.

 

The opposition's lot may be worsening. Dissidents say as many as 250 supporters were rounded up on terrorist charges after the African Union summit last month; some have disappeared. The opposition's main leaders have been in prison for over a year. Torture, especially against lesser-known prisoners, is common. If rural areas are taken into account, extrajudicial killings may run into thousands. But the opposition is divided, often has regional rather than national allegiances, and tends to take its cue from radicals in exile.

 

Moreover, despite help from abroad, the economy is struggling. Exports are worth $1 billion against imports of $5 billion. Sales of coffee and flowers to the West have increased but not enough. Mr Zenawi has applied for membership in the World Trade Organisation. He has also asked China for loans—some say for $3.5 billion.

 

But most of all he is banking on keeping up his friendship with the EU and the United States, whose administration was delighted by the Ethiopian armed forces' recent success in invading neighbouring Somalia, capturing its capital, Mogadishu, and smashing the Somali Islamists who had taken over there. Still, there are conflicting attitudes to Ethiopia in Washington. Congress has lambasted Mr Zenawi's human-rights record and demanded cuts in aid. The Pentagon, on the other hand, is dead keen to boost his armed forces.

 

In September, hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians from their vast and far-flung diaspora are expected to visit their homeland to celebrate the coming of the third Christian millennium, according to their ancient church's calendar. Some hope Mr Zenawi, in a gesture of conciliation, will free some of his opponents from jail before then. But do not bet on it. Mr Zenawi has got used to wielding an iron fist.

 

 

Source: Economist, Feb 22, 2007

[xiinfaniin]

Ethiopia is a concocted state with a very shaky foundation! Only two ethnic groups fully identify themselves as Ethiopians and wish it to survive as it’s. Most other ethnic groups, the majority of Ethiopian masses mind you, either seek a radical transformation that could threaten the very identity of Ethiopia or want an outright dismemberment of the state. Despite western presentation of Ethiopia and its history, it’s the very survival of the state itself, and not the regime, that’s at stake! More likely than not, the end of Ethiopia will come in the form of internal implosion as opposed to an external invasion.

 

Thanks Che for the article. It was a good read.

[Che -Guevara]

The population of 75m-plus is growing by about 2m a year

How would they support this ever-growing masses. This rampant population growth and the prevalent poverty would be its downfall. But I wonder what will the fall of Ethiopia would mean for the Somali?

[xiinfaniin]

I wonder that too as we dont know what the future holds for us! But my raw sentiment is that Ethiopia's fall would mean good for Somalia. The six plus million Somalis would either build a state of thiers or join other Somalis and make the dream of greater Somalia real.

 

I could list other positive things that could happen as a result of Ethiopia's collapse.

 

What do you think yaa Che?

[Peacenow]

What is the true popluation of Somalia???. No one really knows. I would guess it is over 15 million. Certainly more than 6 million. The CIA factbook, uses data from the last cenus in 1977!!.

15 million is not a small country.

[Che -Guevara]

^^^ I do believe it is more than six millions even though the infant and child mortality rates in Somalia is one of the highest in the world.

 

Xiin...I think the fall of Ethiopia would benefit Somalia if there is an able and honest leadership that could unite and steer the country to better future. A weak and fragmented Somalia in my view would not be able to deal with demise of Abysinnian empire. I don't see Somalis capitalising on just eventuality since Somalis could barely if at all deal with their own paramount needs.

[Taako Man]

I think he is talking about 6 million Somalis in Somali region located in Eastern Ethiopia. Not Somalia.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

African countries don’t know how to keep the interest of their own country and people in mind. So far Ethiopia is an example to why Africa is poor and impoverished. The money and resources which could be used to better the environment and the wellbeing of the people is being used to fight wars which have neither means nor cause! A proxy war. Africa is doomed to repeat the same mistakes. They are being exploited and made to fighting wars which don’t benefit them, the same way they were in World War I.