What is Next......?

[Juje]

TFG was probably not the ideal reconciliation government Somalia needed and it was known by anyone with an iota of logic that it was an entity that was designed and created by foreign elements that did not have the best Somali interest in mind. However it was a government that enormously enjoyed International recognition and support - this was a factor the Somali leaders of the TFG should have made use but on the other hand they embarked on recreating the deep divisions and animosity within the Somali people.

Hence the TFG since its creation until the present was marked by internal conflicts and petty politicking . Its first Prime Minister, Geedi, was ousted not by the required parliament vote but purely on the wishes of Yeey and the strict orders from the neighbouring Ethiopians who are not only the back seat drivers of the TFG but also forcefully occupy Somalia. Yeey emerged triumphantly from that episode but one year on he was facing the same scenario but this time he was on the loosing side. Arguably Yeey probably did not have the required number of MP’s needed to legislate the sacking of his PM, Nuur Caade, but neither were there enough MP’s to give Vote of Confidence to Nuur Caade and his new Cabinet and also to approve the Djibouti Accords. Nevertheless the latter triumphed with International support spear headed by the regional organisation IGAD.

Once again clearly demonstrating that decisions that concern Somalia and Somalis are being orchestrated from other chambers. Yeey was bitter to the end but he should realise it is a remedy that worked for him over the last four years. His resignation will not alter the destination of the TFG cause he was never in control of it, and it will depend on where the back seat drivers are taking the TFG to now :

1) Yeey resignation will trigger strong contest among TFG front runners , and it will reasonably question whether the TFG will continue as an entity. Look out for Geedi coming back and Gacmadhere lobbying for the top job.

2) The caravan will be seriously affected by the disintegration of the TFG and its proposals for joint government will be put on hold until the TFG can get its house right first – but then again this will entirely depend on the back seat drivers.

3) The arming of what is called as Ahlu-Sunna will see the elimination of Al-Shabaab from the Central regions of Somalia , and the catalyst to religion sect war that could probably last beyond our life cycle as this could spread to other regions of Somalia . Bear in mind that this is not a reactionary or spontaneous armed conflict - I believe arming of Ahlu-Suuna is well calculated move to counter Al-Shabaab and utterly disregards its circumstances such as creating a new division among the Somalis that is based on religions sects.

 

 

What is Next………?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

new shir in 2009 . dawlad cusub same people different place. just like 2000 lugu badalay 2002 eldoret.

[Juje]

Originally posted by Xaaji_xundjuf:

new shir in 2009 . dawlad cusub same people different place. just like 2000 lugu badalay 2002 eldoret.

May Be