Dispacthes: Warlords next door

[SomaliThinker]

Yes we are adeer yes we are loool

[General Duke]

You keep contradicting yourself, you need a break lad.

[SomaliThinker]

nope my foolish friend just being Sarcastic old boy i hope you know what that means loool.

[NGONGE]

Originally posted by Abtigiis & Tolka:

Ngonge

 

I am amazed by your level of understanding of somali politics. Unless Alshabab is out of the arena, no warlordism will thrive in Somalia if and when the TFG disintegrates. We will have a different problem of taming the whims of some extremists. A new challenge. But no Mohamed Dheere in Jowhar or Yey in Garowe. Things have changed.

 

And for all the efforts to complicate your analysis, I found it elementary and parochial. maybe, I will have to down my argument to fathom yours!

 

But that is quite characterstic of people who lived in East Africa (K,T,U) and are later day converts! I have a Sijuu friend of mine (a born again Somalilander) and history in Somalia has started in 1980s for him. Ngonge reminds me of him. Of course, my assumptions on your origins are based on your name and method of analysis.

Somali politics is simpler than a simple man sampling his first simple mardoof, saaxib. All prickly and sour but never lasting!

 

Now will you stop being silly and start acting like a grown up in your replies? I gave you a scenario; your mission here is to explain why you dismissed it. Or else, I just wont bother in replying to you and might as well return to referring to all that you post as stuff and nonsense. Don't faff about now, man up saaxib, man up.

 

Ps

History in Somalia started for me in 1993 (if that would help you beat the hell out of that straw man).

[Abtigiis]

1- The TFG is made of a collection of warlords :

 

Correct

 

2- If the TFG breaks down, those warlords will go it alone

 

Some will, some won't. Not all those who try will succeed.

 

3- If they go it alone they shall become an extra problem/side in the Somali dispute

 

They won't. Alshabab will overpower them. Hassen Turki will take lower Jubba (with the support from allies from Muqdisho), Hiiran will fall to Islamic courts affiliates, Jowhar is already under influence of Alshabab affiliates, Mukhtar Rooobow will take over Bay and Bakool. Yey will come back to Garowe (but won't be able to withstand internal dissent in puntland and full scale Alshabab invasion: assumption Ethiopia not there)

 

4- Someone will have to negotiate/deal with this extra problem

 

No deals. They will vanish.

 

5- This is not different to negotiating/dealing with the TFG now.

 

See the answer in No.4.

 

Having replied to your queries in Bold, I will not mind the usual Nonesense and stuff business! Please continue to use it.

[NGONGE]

Ah! And you claim to understand Somali politics? If you permit me to say, with all due respect of course, that your reply was lazy, ill thought and pathetic.

 

Now I know you are a staunch supporter of the Shabaab and I have no problem with that. My only hope is that you've decided to support them after a period of soul searching and weighing up the pros and cons of such support. However, now that you've made your choice I'm afraid you've got the blinkers fully on.

 

You concede the point that some of the former warlords may go it alone (and others might not). Yet, you then go into a world of absolutes where the Shabab conquer all that stands in their way and take over large swaths of territory! It's as if nothing had taken place in Somalia in the last two years and the ICU is still as it were back then.

 

To compound your hasty reasoning, you actually try to argue that if Abdullahi Yusuf should go back to Growe he will not have as strong a say as he used to have! Who says, saaxib? Who says? Is this not the same Puntland that is sending him its young sons to fight and die on his side?

 

War wax macqool ku hadal and try to control your impulsive emotions. Stuff and nonsense indeed.

[Abtigiis]

Ngonge

 

The more you talk, the more I see you are neophyte in Somali politics matters, Saaxiib. Abdullahi Yusuf is getting recruits because of the power and resource he is enjoying right now. Somali's are notorious for changing sides when your star falls. Some will still support him, but many will desert him as well.

 

Indeed, all the facts on the ground suggest the ICU is as it was in 2006 and more. You haven't said what happened in the last two years that change their standing.That I said they will run over most of the South doesn't mean I support Al-Shabab. Why are you so judgemental, oday?

 

Just ask yourself one question? Who is holding the fort against Alshabab now in Mogdisho and Baidoa?

 

The last thing I will like to remind you is to go easy on your unconstructive and hysterical croons. They won't make your points more clear, or mine more dim. So, easy. You only have one opinion, just say it. Don't make it like a consensus of many.

 

All we are talking is opinions, afterall.

[NGONGE]

Do you actually think before you type that collection of spaghetti alphabet you keep mistaking for an argument, saaxib?

 

There is so much trash in there I'm tempted to come at you with a broom instead of any reasonable reply. But, still, I shall persevere and twist your nose further. If you like to be shown up for the simpleton you are, you just came to the right man, saaxib.

 

Lets start from the end: you say it is all opinions. That is good and fair. I have no problem with opinions at all. I'll share mine and view yours. However, if yours happen to be weak, pointless or simple waffle I shall tell you that they're weak, pointless and simple waffle. To come back at me and tell me it's only your opinion is not going to change that, saaxib.

 

2- The Ethiopians along with TFG soldiers are holding the fort in Mogadishu right now (though I wouldn't use that phrase myself. It implies two standing armies with one under siege or something).

 

3- The facts on the ground suggest the ICU is as it was in 2006? This is the same ICU that is divided today and have its leaders scattered all over the place? The same ICU with Sh. Ahmed cavorting with the TFG, funny-eyed man promoting himself and the rest lounging in Asmara?

 

4- I see you're changing your stance now regarding Abdullahi Yusuf and are saying that SOME will support him and some will abandon him.

I reckon if I keep at you I'll get you to strip away this stubbornness of yours, one item at a time, until you're left with nothing but empty words and red cheeks. But, please, don't let me stop you. Continue, continue..

[N.O.R.F]

Where is the other thread? Hmmm

[LayZie G.]

Abitigiis, I am tempted to cheer u on(just something about underdogs, na mean?), but dare I betray ngonge?

 

Speaking of NG, there is no bite to him, all barks.

 

Please, do continue.

 

PS:Update, scoreboard has been erased, we are starting W/nil-nil.

[NGONGE]

^^ I'd sooner wolf whistle you than bark or bite A&T, darling.

[Kashafa]

Yet, you then go into a world of absolutes where the Shabab conquer all that stands in their way and take over large swaths of territory! It's as if nothing had taken place in Somalia in the last two years and the ICU is still as it were back then.

There is no Somali tribal militia on the face of the earth that can stand up to the fury of the Red Cimaamad blitzkrieg. This has been proven, time and again, up to a point where in some cases, TFG tribal troops refuse to fight if they do not have Etho troops with them. The fighting quality/ability of the cimaamad-wearer is unparalleled, no serious observer of the Somali scene will question that.

 

 

This case scenario is the most realistic:

 

3- If they go it alone they shall become an extra problem/side in the Somali dispute

 

They won't. Alshabab will overpower them. Hassen Turki will take lower Jubba (with the support from allies from Muqdisho), Hiiran will fall to Islamic courts affiliates, Jowhar is already under influence of Alshabab affiliates, Mukhtar Rooobow will take over Bay and Bakool. Yey will come back to Garowe (but won't be able to withstand internal dissent in puntland and full scale Alshabab invasion: assumption Ethiopia not there)

 

4- Someone will have to negotiate/deal with this extra problem

 

No deals. They will vanish.

Aptly put. F deals. They. Will. Vanish.

[LANDER]

Abtigiis iyo Tolka,

 

Brother I'm not sure why you’re wasting your time trying to explain matters that should not require any explanation. Your last few posts are highlighting facts that should be obvious to anyone who has remotely followed the on-goings in Somalia in the past 3 yrs. You see, some have an uncanny ability to tell fictional stories and it would seem they try to translate that very same ability into their own perception of reality. Well I won’t state the obvious there, but I will say that you were being generous in your use of the word ‘parochial’ in reference to what would be described as unfounded.

 

I have mentioned this before and I will say again, among the three main actors named in the conflict of Somalia, (U.S.A, Ethiopia and the resistance)none is more important in changing the situation on the ground than the U.S.A. For reasons that again should be quite obvious to most of us. Given the political climate in the U.S. and the changes that may (or may not) soon come. I think this is an opportune time for those who want to see real peace and freedom in Somalia to make their mark.

[Abtigiis]

Originally posted by NGONGE:

There is so much trash in there I'm tempted to come at you with a broom instead of any reasonable reply. But, still, I shall persevere and twist your nose further. If you like to be shown up for the simpleton you are, you just came to the right man, saaxib.

 

Lets start from the end: you say it is all opinions. That is good and fair. I have no problem with opinions at all. I'll share mine and view yours. However, if yours happen to be weak, pointless or simple waffle I shall tell you that they're weak, pointless and simple waffle. To come back at me and tell me it's only your opinion is not going to change that, saaxib.

This has accounted for more than 75% of your reply to my comment. Does it have anything to do with the scenarios we discussed? Again, on opinions, unless you just being naughty for the sake of it, who has said mine is pointless and yours is correct?! The judge and the jury- the 'unparralled' NGONE? War nagala tag sheekada!

 

What has Sheikh Sharif's detachement got to do with the military operations on the ground? Do you think that will affect the might of Alshabab (supported by Eritrea)? And on Abdullahi Yusuf, unless you wish to belive your own mental creations, my point was clear. Don't make it sound like a choice between if some one follows him, he will be intact; if someone hasn't he will be out. Some people will still remain loyal to him (but won't be enough to save him) but most will desert him if the tide turns against him.

 

This argument is not going anywhere, and I won't extend it any further.

 

And may I remind you again to talk about the issues; not the person who has commented.Because my constant appeal for you to calm down has apparently been taken as a weakness, I am compelled, I hate to do so, to say this to you. Contrary to the inflated self-importance you have of yourself, nothing in your argument validates the grandiosity felt inside your chicken head!