War clauds on Mogadisho

[Zaylici]

I have recently talked to freinds, relatives in North Mogadisho and Bermuda areas; the general feeling is that this is a war that would weaken the political and economic power of clans in Northern Mogadisho;the general reasoning is that the current access to economic sources would give them an economic power, followd by political power which would be available to dictate the distiny of mogadisho, its sorrounding and beyond;

 

So, most of the people are now gathering resources to attack positions currently being accupied and beyond; the clan sentiment in northen Mogadisho is currently alarming; I would soon write a paper and dessiminate it throughout Somali and non Somali websites. My judgment is that this would be like 1991-1992 war, the reason being there is large military supplies and femine is about to come in full force; the combination of these forces( natural and human-made) did play a greater role in the disaster that engulfed much of Southern Somalia in 1990s.

We learn from research that civil wars rarely end in decisive victory; with this in mind, I am afraid overoptimism of the sides would be sufficient to initiate the war and sustain it for sometime; when many perish, the civil war would end, followed by protracted societal depression.

 

What do you think about the possibility of clanisation of Mogadisho Conflict and its aftermath political remifications on Mogadisho and beyond.

[General Duke]

^^^ I agree with the above statement, it would be tragic if it is played out as the warlords want.

[codetalker]

ZAYLICI -

 

You made a good point about the deadly combination of military weapons and famine, both of which fueled the terrible war of the early '90s. Today, Xamar is in a similar predicament. The players might've changed but the clan loyalty remains as strong as before.

 

The important question is: "How will the Islamic courts maintain their ideological appeal?" Attacking the economic infrustructure of "some" warlords while others are allowed to keep their isbaaros intact is not wise policy. Hiding under the banner of "Islam" can only work for so long - before the masses awaken to the blind grab for power, money and land.

[Gabbal]

Zaylici-

 

What did you friends have to say about the fact that Sheikh Sharif (head of the Islamic Courts'), Abukar Cadan, and Bashir Rage all hail from north Mogadishu?

[Zaylici]

Horn of Afrik, you have asked a good question; you are right sharif, head of the Islamic courts and Caddani are both from northern Mogadisho Clans, from this perspective, the claim that the current fight is against a particular clan rings false.

But one you go a little bit deaper, you will see a different picture; it is has been confirmed, and I too did from different, unrelated sources, that the war was not participated by Islamic courts alone, but were joined by clan militia loyal to worlords from Kismayo areas.

 

To put clearly, Mr Horn, the war is not now between Worlords and Islamic courts, if this were the case, it would have conforted th hearts of Northern Mogadisho clans, beleiving that the worlords deserve this fate, unfortunately this is not the case, Courts, to their detriment, have acceppted the support of clan militia, possiibly in fear of losing the war. This choice have changed the dynamics giving the war clannish picture rather than its admirable picture: warlords vs courts. Thus, they say, why be indifferent while my evil, which would be useful, in some cases, be defeated by another evil; from thier perspective, their warlord is lesser evil.

 

I too Horn of Afrik wished that Islamic courts shouold relay on their own power and keep away from clan politcs; this did not happen.

 

Moreover, as you are aware power and wealth in Somalia is distributed on clan basis; whoever his clan losses the war, regardless the cause and idiology, sustains perminent disability in relation to Somali economics and politics.

 

Now, Northern Mogadisho clans face a delimma, a real one, as they confirm; should we allow Warlords to be defeated, if so are we willing to accept post-warlord politico-economic realiity.

To give some little information, currently among southern Mogadishso clans dominate the Islamic courts: Ifka xalene, Warshada Caanaha, Shirkoole are all dominated by southern Mogadisho clans; wheras there is only onne court in the current Islamic court allience from Northern Mogadihso, Yaaqshiid,led by sheif Sharif; add to this the new non Islamic courts militia, such Indhocade, Goobaanle. If you do, the balance of power, obviously is on the side of Southern Mogadisho clans in relation to Islamic courts. This is indirect contrast to the nenw allience, majority of the warlords in the allience are from Northern Mogadisho clans.

 

This balance of power is what worries Northern MOgadisho clans. Victory against warlords, though, desirable, leads to southern Mogadisho dominance in Mogadisho and beyond; this is what inclines these clans in the north to endorse the lesser evil.

 

From this perspective, clinisation of the conflict and protracted urban warefare is enavitable leading to me beleive that this would be, if combined with femine that is looming in the horizon, a great disaster whose consequences would be felt for many years to come.

[Zaylici]

I concur wholeheartedly with you, Oodwayne, on your assesment on the matter. People do not lack historical memory;I hope they will use their experience to avert another disaster. However, it is possible that the new allience or Courts, may entertain false overoptimism: such as social revolution or American dollars. This may be sufficient, as I said to initiate and sustain the war for sometime, but this period would be detrimental to the civilian population in the city.

 

There is general beleif in northern Mogadihso, that American money would make the difference; some claim money has already came, and it would continue to come; if this line is substantiated, then many would entertain this reassoning and thereby start and sustain an expensive war for sometime. It is not known however, wheather US would bring the resourcecs needed to undertake this expensive war. No, one it appears to me is willing to support such warlords who have blood in their hands, for this reason they are optimistic for no reason.

 

On the other hand, Courts, may beleive that Non Southern Mogadisho clans would fight for them in the anticipation of Jannah and an end to suffering of Mogadisho population. This is a valid point, it is not known, however, wheather these groups would hang around when the war gets bloodier, protracted and complex, that is when pure clannism removes its mask and takes the driving seat to challenge its opponent clansmen.

 

General Duke and Codetalker, you have both raised an important points; particularly, Codetalker your appreciation of femine and clan factor in this respect, is right, in my judgment.

[Gabbal]

As always, Zaylici, your take on the situation is very enlightening. I hope, no pray, that (1.) the Islamic Courts' realize accepting support from non-traditional courts' miltiias is a detriment to their cause and overall ideology and (2.) that the people of Mogadishu reach a common objective to drive out the Warlords from their midst.

 

I believe that Islamic Courts' should be applauded for their ideology and for destroying the perception one naturally had of the warlords. I think the people of Mogadishu are in a pivotal moment in history when the veiled mask and facade the warlords built around themselves has been shattered beyond repair. I would hope the Islamic Courts' continue on the platform of non-tribal affinity they rose on and that they look for the confidence to realize that they can get their message across successfully without fear of defeat. Fear that is obviously leading them to accept support from traditionally non-religious militias.

 

It all comes down to this; will the Islamic Courts' salvage their reputation and reafirm their non-tribal affinity or will they feed the warlords the ammunition to rise up segments of the Mogadishu populace against them in the name of clan?

 

I pray the Islamic Courts' will succeed in making sure the Mogadishu populace understand the current saga is a war of ideology and nuthing but that.

[OLOL]

Zaylici is masqurading and hiding behind the analytical mask here He is therefore biased in his assessment of the situation in Mogadishu. His constant promotion of the northern-mogadisho -clans - read "A" and their immagined apprehension of economic and political loss at the hands of the southern-mogadishu clans read "H" should be enough to give us a hint of his biased mindset. once can read under the lines his trepidation and quite subdued loathing of the "H" clans and obvious support and cheering for his "A" clan. Thus, all of his points are "hal bacaad lagu lisay" Somalis already said ... shiikh tolkiis kama jano tago..no matter how many schools one goes, how many books one reads, how many degrees one gets, how many times one choose to portray himself neutral and objective, deep down, one is infested with the disease of Qabiil and Qabyaalad.... none can be fooled here ....we are all sick....

 

for this war, no one will win..and for somalis ...they won't learn from history...and will continue on the path of doom and destruction....until the day of judgement ...and may the gates of hell be welcomed to the ..warmongers, warlords, cyber warlords, clannish cheerleaders and hypocrites,,,,,,Amen!

now let us talk about Eritrea, Asmar and my newly built Villa and beautiful bride ...I was away .....

[Zaylici]

Mr Olol, you really have made me lough; real hard. Rather than raising a points or invalidating my points and concerns that I have raised, you resorted to a wholesale refutations( hal bacaad lagu lisaay) on the basis of inneundos. True I may have insinuated a bais towards north Mogadisho, but that does not mean the points that I raised are invalid and therefore a product of clanish mind. I have gathered information about the areas that I have freinds. Why don't you enlighten us too about the feeling of south Mogadisho areas, and what is the general feeling, so that we may learn from one another and therefore improve our understanding of these manumental dynamics, rather than taking the easy way out?: charectersing my pointns as clanish thing, rather than refuting them.

 

True, we may all be sick, as you have said, meaning, I suppose, that we are all baised to one side; I have never seen someone who is not without some perspective( impossibility of aperpectival thesis) and hence with some bais. This is a natural human tendency eminating from the fact that they are immersed in socio-economic and political conditions;for instance we worry about our families more than strangers. We therefore send money to them, rather than to strangers who are, in some cases, better suited than our families. Is that a baised?. Yes. is that bad?. No, at leat in so far as human culture is concerned. Thus, it is inaccurate to catogarise some concerns as clanish, and therefore end of the story. Rather the best way, in my judgment, is to accept baised tendencies as natural outgrowith of human conditions and then proceed to deal with them logicaly.

 

Any way, Mr Olol thanks for the loughter. I really, have no grudge against southern Mogadisho clans; If I, sometimes, do, I fight against them ferociously before they appear in my writtings. I strive to do what I anticipate from others. So, I refrain from aggressing others to be save from their aggression.

Let us hope that events would take a better course for Mogadisho residents and for Somala at large: Amen.

[xiinfaniin]

I think some nomads here are overanalyzing this conflict and few have already injected their clannish perspectives into the assessment of what this latest conflict could give birth to. I also found, I must say, good Zaylici’s appraisal of current situation and his gloomy predictions as to the fate of northern Mogadishu tribes quite pessimistic, to say the least. It also goes without saying that I see Odweyne’s mournful cry and his lament on the supposedly ruined political fortunes of Mogadishu clans as misplaced as I suspect him to have worn the wrong lenses to aptly analyze these developments. For him the defeat of these warlords represents an astounding win for the TFG and the policies of the man who heads it. And he would rather have preferred, if I were to hazard a guess, to see them united instead and form a unified front against what he perceives to be illegitimate entity. But to be fair both men’s concerns about the price poor civilians would pay, if this war were to turn out as destructive as some suggested it would be, are legitimate, I must note. Still, I beg to differ from the so-far-established view in this discussion, and by that I mean the view that says this conflict is similar to that of early 1990’s, in which much was lost to no cause. And so obliged I felt to chip in and throw my few cents in to the discussion.

 

I believe, contrary to the prevailing view, at least on this forum, Mogadishu is not slipping back into the days of Aidiid and Mahdi. This conflict is between mercenary-turned-warlords who have little regard, if any, for ideological and national considerations and Islamic courts who has been serving that community for nearly a decade now and whose record of goodwill and concern for their community is indisputable. It is not clannish in nature, I insist. I think HA asked very good question about the peculiarity of court’s coalition and how it defies the clannish calculus that we all accustomed for. What unites between Sharif, Aweys, and Addani is ideology, rather than a clan. Because of their religious platform, their political thinking transcends clannish lines and rises above usual tribal settings and its political calculus; a fact that throws off balance even otherwise enlightened and educated nomads on this very site. So that should commit the notion of characterizing this conflict as a clannish to the flames. It just does not hold water.

 

Another fallacy that’s beginning to formulate here is the notion that courts would loose credibility and rupture their repute if they somehow don’t show an open hostility toward other warlords who are not part of this current conflict. Simply because Indhacadde, Goobaale, and other less significant criminals in the south differed with Qanyare’s hastily formed coalition and, in some instances, openly pledged to support the courts, Islamic courts and for that matter the cause for which they stand is damaged. Or so the argument goes. That, I hold, is a cheap dent and does not make the Islamic court’s struggle against other mercenaries tainted and their stance impure. It does not suggest hypocrisy, as some nomads implied, and to me it is just part of normal dealings in a big and difficult city as Mogadishu is definitely one. One needs to understand realities on the ground and the political dynamics that brought this conflict to the forefront. Islamic courts have long accepted the harsh political and security realities of that city and swallowed their pride. They accepted that they are not the only armed entities in Mogadishu and hence can’t act as the sole power in it. They settled to control limited jurisdictions and ceded large portions of the city to the armed gangs where the culture of warlordism thrived. It was a bitter bill that the courts decided to take in order for them to function in their jurisdictions peacefully. That has been the default security and political arrangements of Mogadishu until Qanyare and co announced their coalition and declared war on the Islamic entities. Logic dictates that they would only fight against those who attacked them or made clear that they would attack them. Why would they do otherwise unless one incorrectly assumes that these sheikhs are drunk with power and would smash any potential opponent without giving it a proper thought? That’s not only an unsound strategy politically, as it opens another and an unnecessary front, but it is also logistically impossible for them to do so. Further more, it emits unmistakable and familiar odor of clannish smell when one always brings to the discussion the family links between AQasim, Aweys, and other players in the south and somehow suggests that this conflict is going to be the antecedent of their perceived political dominance in that region. That I found to be very naïve and utter misreading of the political dynamics of that city in particular and in the south, in general. It is also a misread to the political competence of the men who set up these Islamic courts as they have no intention to weaken warlords to strengthen other opposing warlords. It also does not do justice to the masses who support these courts and are still dieing for its cause as we speak. It is a high time for the cyber intellectuals to give these mullahs their dues, I say.

 

Another asinine comment that I have been reading from these pages last few days is the assertion that both warring functions are warlords. Suffice to say that the record of Islamic courts is in stark contrast with that of Qanyare and co, and the court’s militias are no armed slum-dwellers who set up roadblocks and willfully rape and kill. It is quite a stretch to equate the two as they represent two very different ideologies.

 

Finally, it is my belief that the fateful day in which Mogadishu warlords are utterly defeated, and the dignity of its people restored is not far away. So let the men of faith do their best to unchain shackled innocents of that city.

[Zaylici]

Mr Xiinfaniin

 

Indhocade and Gobaanle joined the war, while members of Islamic union courts have opted out, this would have alarmed you to the non-propitious omens, but you have rationalised by imphazing its politic-military necessity; at this stage, I agree with you that it is a political necessary, from the perspective of the warlords, but would't you agree that it comes with a price? Clans who opted out whose warlords are weakened aren't they in position to be flooded by their wildest nighmare and hallucinations? I think so, thus, support received by courts from clan militias though enavitable comes with a price, I am not sure if you are willing to appreciate the concerns raised by the pragmatic nature of Islamic courts in ralation to clan dynamics in Mogadisho.

 

More alarming is the military presence of non-Islamic courts clan militia, such as Goobaanle and Indocade, at the highway that links northern Mogadisho to its immediate hinterland, warsheekh and other districts. This military phinominon fills Northern Mogadisho clans with fear and anger sufficient to incline them to support bloody warlords to escape from the fate that may be imposed by Mullahas who may resort to many detrimental acts as conditions demand; put yourself at the shoes of these folks, then you will appreciate their reservations and delimmas. This is the point that I have raised Mr Xinfanin, after discussing with some freinds in Mogadisho who were knowledgable with Mogadisho dynamics.

 

The current arguments constitute a complex misunderstanding between clans in Mogadisho; such compex misunderstanding is usually a precondition for protracted warefare; that is why I was worried about the possibility of taking the disputes into the battlefeield.

 

Unless you are so commited to your idiology, which holds for the majority of the people, I hope you will appreciate this complexity.

[Zaylici]

Originally posted by Zaylici:

Mr Xiinfaniin

 

Indhocade and Gobaanle joined the war, while members of Islamic union courts have opted out, this would have alarmed you to the non-propitious omens, but you have rationalised by imphazing its politic-military necessity; at this stage, I agree with you that it is a political necessity, from the perspective of the Mullas, but would't you agree that it comes with a price? Clans who opted out and whose warlords are weakened aren't they in position to be flooded by their wildest nighmare and hallucinations? I think so, thus, support received by courts from clan militias though enavitable comes with a price, I am not sure if you are willing to appreciate the concerns raised by the pragmatic nature of Islamic courts in ralation to clan dynamics in Mogadisho.

 

More alarming is the military presence of non-Islamic courts clan militia, such as Goobaanle and Indocade, at the highway that links northern Mogadisho to its immediate hinterland, warsheekh and other districts. This military phinominon fills Northern Mogadisho clans with fear and anger sufficient to incline them to support bloody warlords to escape from the fate that may be imposed by Mullahas who may resort to many detrimental acts as conditions demand; put yourself at the shoes of these folks, then you will appreciate their reservations and delimmas. This is the point that I have raised Mr Xinfanin, after discussing with some freinds in Mogadisho who were knowledgable with Mogadisho dynamics.

 

The current arguments constitute a complex misunderstanding between clans in Mogadisho; such compex misunderstanding is usually a precondition for protracted warefare; that is why I was worried about the possibility of taking the disputes into the battlefeield.

 

Unless you are so commited to your idiology, which holds for the majority of the people, I hope you will appreciate this complexity.

[Jaylaani]

There are more warlords here in SOL than back there in Mogadishu.

 

 

How did you’ll come with those analyses?

[xiinfaniin]

^^Adeer dadka ha cayne dood la imow ama dhegeyste ka noqo.

 

Odweyne, my good man, why do you always choose to speak more grammar than truth? I read your lengthy piece and it seems that you’ve decided to address what I did not say rather than what I said. You see, I am with the courts on this one, though I know that they have their shortcomings, as they present a better alternative to this painful Somali conflict. Come back and address the points I raised saaxiib, rather than dwelling in the lower part of the discussion.

 

Zaylici, I have not overlooked nor ignored the intricacy that involves Mogadishu’s politics. In fact its that very complexity which I sensed that you oversimplified when you asserted that northern Mogadishu community are in a war footing against Islamic courts as they suspect that they are destined to loose their political capital for their foes. I in turn insist Northern clans truly represent, both numerically and politically, the majority of Islamic courts. If the courts win, then that community would win. Indeed, all Mogadishu residents would win. Though you have shown good analytical skills, you are using wrong gauge to measure the pulses of that part of the town, and hence your assessment fails to emerge from that clannish era where every thing is examined through the lenses of clan. This war is unprecedented as it departs from the norm of killing each other for mere ancestral lineage; it is a war rooted in religious principles. I would also like you to acknowledge that this war, from court’s perspective, is a defensive war and a struggle to exist. From the warlords perspective though, this conflict presents (at least from their earlier assessment) an opportunity to demonstrate to the interested world that they are indeed competent and able to put up a good fight with the alleged terrorist who supposedly freely roam in that city. True that this conflict produced an insurmountable set back for certain warlords, namely those who hail from the northern part of the city, but that does not mean that community would loose if their warlords are defeated. It is the opposite of that, and as soon as the incompetent warlords are removed from the scene, better and able souls will emerge from the ruins of their defeat. Further more, how could one suggest that the leaders of the Islamic courts, who have a fairly diverse background, would some how be dominated by the warlords of the southern part of the city?

 

As I acknowledged the complexity of Mogadishu, would you also admit that it would be a rushed assessment, and hence incorrect, to predict a gloomy fate and political disappoint for the Northern Mogadishu at this juncture?

[Jaylaani]

^^^my point exactly. Waa maxay budkan aad qaadatay saaxiib.

 

Listen, I don't need to make "dood" for the sake of argument.