The Holhol Incident

[Mintid Farayar]

Over the last few days, a lot has been written on the Internet and in this Forum regarding the Holhol episode. A political meeting of traditional leaders was to take place in Holhol. This meeting had long been rumored to be adverse to Somaliland's interests and was explicitly stated as such by the young Garaad who originally called for the meeting. Shortly after the arrival of the Garaads, a division of Somaliland's military forces moved to the area, taking full military control of the area. Then some hours later, a delegation of Sool natives from the Somaliland government arrived, convening a closed door meeting with the Garaads. An agreement was reached to prematurely conclude the meeting. The meeting was adjourned after 48 hours (originally it had been slated for at least 5 days if not longer).

 

What are the ramifications of this incident? Many Puntland supporters in this Forum believe/state this shows the hostile attitude of Somaliland towards the majority in Sool. They claim this is the final nail on the coffin. I disagree with that analysis. Here is why:

 

Since the fall of the military dictatorship in Somalia, it's been an open secret that the Sool community has been divided in its allegiances. Three factions are present:

A- Those who support Somaliland

B- Those who support Puntland

C- Those who support neither entity but would rather wait for a central gov't in Mogadishu

(A fourth faction is rumored to exist, supporting Al Shabaab)

 

 

With the Holhol incident, Somaliland drove home the point that it and it alone physically controls all of Sool. Puntland remains powerless to exercise any influence in the region. More importantly, for the supporters of Puntland within Sool, it has become apparent that Puntland has neither the desire, the will, or the power to protect them. Somaliland accomplished this without the slightest physical harm coming to a single individual. Meanwhile, Sool inhabitants observe their cousins(Sool natives) who support Somaliland thriving as successful, integral members of the Somaliland business, social, and political community. The power of the contrast between these two observations(the Sool constituencies supporting either Somaliland or Puntland) cannot be underestimated.

 

Now, the outrage we're hearing daily is the radicalized Sool diaspora (the young Garaad happens to be a member of this group). A large portion of the Sool diaspora happen to be the remnants of the military dictatorship who occupied high positions in the dictatorship (or their offspring). This small, but highly vocal, segment of the Sool population lost power, wealth, and prestige with the demise of the regime. Somaliland (and its majority clan) are blamed disproportionately for the destruction of that regime and the émigré status this community finds itself in. This diaspora community has the power of the purse behind it (remittances) and hitched its wagon from the beginning to the Puntland experiment as protection from Somaliland. Due to their greater financial power, higher education, and greater access to the media they've been able to drown out all other segments of their region and clan. They were the architects of both the Nairobi conference and the Holhol gathering. The agenda and outcome was already preset for both.

 

Somaliland, by its latest move, showed in the clearest way possible that it's here to stay in the region and must be accommodated to its satisfaction. The fact that it did this without any physical harm coming to anyone is a testament to how well this was thought out on the Somaliland side. Somaliland's actions demonstrated the futility of hoping Puntland can be a bulwark against Somaliland's claims on Sool. This sentiment/frustration was voiced even by the stridently anti-Somaliland young Garaad who originally called for this gathering. He even went so far as to claim certain Puntland ministers set him up to be arrested by Somaliland (in an interview within the last 48 hours). The level of desperation and paralysis is at an all time high within the Puntland supporters of the Sool region. Meanwhile, the Somaliland supporters within Sool can point to the daily successes of their project in persuading the masses (the majority of whom have never tasted the high life of Villas and Land Cruisers in Mogadishu).

 

In closing, it seems the tussle over Sool between Somaliland and Puntland is finally drawing to a conclusion.....

[Thankful]

During last Decade Lascaanod was in Puntlands hands longer then it was in NW Somalia's hands. If that is any indication that the fight is far from over, I am not sure what is!

 

Puntland is playing it perfectly, just sit back, because pretty soon Reer Sool (like it has happened in many places in the world), will look at NW Somali's government in Hargeysa and will come to the realization that they have little to no representation, that the dominant family in hargeysa has put themselves in a position to always be either President or Vice Pres!!!

 

Reer Sool will start demanding "no taxation, without representation."

 

They became fed up before and chased Riyaale out, (who has never returned)!

 

As long as the Admin in NW Somalia continues to discriminate against Reer Sool, they'll always be tension!!!

[Mintid Farayar]

As much as the other side tries to present a different narrative, the true situation as stated in my earlier posting is buttressed by the young Garaad's interview a day earlier. He seemed livid with 'the betrayal' by Puntland, which he supported in the competition for Sool.

 

In another thread, others in this Forum seemed to have come to the same conclusions, i.e.:

 

Originally posted by Abtigiis & Tusbax:

On the other hand, the highlight of my previous post on this issue should have been my advice to Garad Jamac not to rely on unreliable Pirateland. It seems he has abondoned Holhol,now another plac e further down the south is being talked about, and I guess if Somaliland sends police there, the venue will be relocated further to the South. If this south-looking trend continues, the meeting might take place in Galmudug and its credibililty will be lost!

Link to Thread

[Mintid Farayar]

Even those arguing for a different narrative of what's transpired agree with the basic premise of my earlier posting.

 

Exhibit:

 

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

I note the exuberance of the secessionists, and I honestly think it is somewhat justified---.

Link to Thread

[NGONGE]

^^ Though I am on your side, I have to respectfully say that you (and my guru) are talking nonsense here.

 

If what you're after were a tit-for-tat or a humbling of PL, then I'd say you are on the right track and probably won the argument (for now). However, if what you wrote above was an actual analysis of the situation, I fear your bias has got the better of you. You talk of those in SOOL who are pro SL with the confidence of someone who has never experienced political betrayal before. Yet you have, and you must surely remember how things panned out in 2003.

 

If we are being truthful here, I think the real leanings of the people of SOOL are really unknown (even to themselves it seems). The strong man in LA believes his interests lie with SL but the same man, not so long ago, also believed that his interests are better served by PL (could you guarantee he will not switch again?). The Garads and others, today, believe that they should stick with their cousins in PL, yet, with diplomacy and some bribery, they could easily change their minds and decide that the sun really rises on the SL side.

 

Until and unless the SOOL leaders and elders are in agreement on where they stand and what they want to be, any talk of an SL or PL victory is presumptuous. SL should have let those elders have their meeting and come out with a declaration one way or another.

[Qudhac]

Ngonge

 

You have to understand the most of the garads are acting out of their own political allegance rather than as representetives of the region. and all in all their influence is very limited interms of swaying general public.

 

the likes of xabsade and other local political players have far more powerfull infuence than these hired elders, who normaly serve whom ever is in power in hargeisa and garowe and have always done from the days of cigaal and c/y.

 

you must also understand there have always been loud minority from sool whom maily reside in the west who are very anti-somaliland (mainly based on tribal baised and old wounds from siyad barre days).

 

because this minority usually shouts the loudest people believe this is the opinion of sool inhabitants, i can assure you if sool was that anti somaliland then somaliland would not be there for a day.

 

since somaliland wields huge influence in the region this notion that majority of reer sool hate somaliland with passion has been found to be baseless, as reality of today suggest otherwise.

 

unfotunately the young garad jamac of today has been hijacked by this load minority group that reside in western countries, he has clearly demostrated his political imaturity by aligning himself with such hardline groups some who actually carry out terrorist activities in las anod.

[NGONGE]

^^ Where were the majority between 2003 and 2007? Why did they not kick PL out? Adeer dee naga daa this habit of looking at things with only one eye. Ta kale fur aad Garowe argtid.

[Mintid Farayar]

What's interesting here is that you have only Somalilanders debating the merits of this theory while the usual vocal supporters of Puntland have gone deafeningly silent ...

 

Having said that, Ngonge's main point seems to be that present leadership in Sool has a history of switching sides & cannot be assumed to be on the Somaliland bandwagon for long. While this point has its merits, Ngonge seems to have missed the crux of the argument which is not about elites but rather the perceptions of the grassroots . The facts being created on the ground are similar to the same facts that were created in the rest of Somaliland under Egal's tutelage (mid '90s onwards) -

Prominent elites in the rest of Somaliland have flirted with the idea of Somaliweyn but proved unable to woo the public to the idea. The same process is being enacted today among the grassroots in Sool - to accept the reality of Somaliland regardless of the exiled elites who enjoy the hospitality of foreign hotels and foreign citizenship.

 

Now in all fairness, the anti-Somaliland forces are not idle as displayed by the recent appearance of terrorist bombings in Las Anod. Just today, as we speak, a bomb wounded the Governor of Sool and killed one of his bodyguards. A female civilian pedestrian was also severely wounded. However, this tactic will backfire. Civilians do not appreciate terrorist bombings in their midst and the Governor and bodyguard , while representatives of Somaliland, are still Sool natives with their sub-clan constituencies . This will not endear the anti-Somaliland faction to the natives of Las Anod. All Somalis within the Somali peninsula prize peace above all else , a fact lost among the exiled anti-Somaliland elite (who all live in the safety of foreign capitals) who are funding these bombings.

 

Secondly, the international community which monitors the region closely strongly opposes these forms of terrorist actions and will further aid the Somaliland security services to deal with the rising tide of terrorism on the Eastern front.

 

So, in clarification, this is much deeper than elites playing musical chairs . Hearts and minds are at stake and it's to Somaliland's advantage to empower the grassroots!

[NGONGE]

^^ Fine. Lets play it your way. In what esteem would you say that the natives of Sool hold these 'elites' (or as everyone else calls them: Garads)?

 

When you compare it to the SL situation in the 90s, are you really saying the SL elders of the time were complaining about being occupied/mistreated (or whatever the current complaints are) by Egal? Have the people of Sool fell out with PL/Somaliweyn or even had a war with them? Is there historical mistrust like the one the people of SL had (at the time) with anything southern?

 

I agree with you about wooing the public in Sool but doubt that vilifying their elders is the right way to go about it, saaxib.

 

Clan is EVERYTHING and if the mind-set you're showing is the accepted policy of SL, I do not blame the Sool 'elites' for trying to fight for their region (because clan is everything).

 

Take a step back and have yourself another look, saaxib.

[Mintid Farayar]

Ngonge, You misrepresent my point to make yours. The elites I refer to are not the Garaads , but rather the exiled, radicalized diaspora . The reasons for this radicalization are explained in my original post in this thread.

 

My position on the Garaads is one of complete respect, even though I might disagree with the political leanings of some. I've stated so in enough threads where others have badmouthed them.

 

The relationship between the majority of the Garaads and the Somaliland leadership is not one of enmity as Puntlanders would have us believe and have convinced you, obviously.

 

I recommend you listen to this interview below conducted by an anti-Somaliland website with a reporter who happened to be in Holhol during the latest incident. While the interviewer tries to feed him (the reporter) leading questions averse to Somaliland, the eyewitness comments on the comraderie and friendy banter that was taking place between the Somaliland delegation and the Garaads in Holhol during the latest incident in that town. At the end, he states an accommodation was agreed to between the Garaads and the Somaliland leadership . This is quite different from the narrative others are painting in the diaspora!

 

 

Saaxiib, ku noqo Analysis-kaaga...

Interview with Reporter from Holhol

[Che -Guevara]

Miscalculations are easy to make but hard to fix.

[xiinfaniin]

Originally posted by Mintid Farayar:

Ngonge,

 

Saaxiib, ku noqo Analysis-kaaga...

Interview with Reporter from Holhol

A quick translation of the 'analysis' Macno Yare posted for NGONGE

 

The Hargeysa admin successfully prevented from SOOL traditional elders conference at Hol-hol to conclude peacefully. As a result the elders changed the venue of the meeting to Carooley and Buro-wadal settlements. The elders announced that they have made progress on the issues they thus far discussed, and promised that they will issue a communiqué at Carooley and Buro-wadal after consulting with Garad Jama and Ugas Farah, two prominent elders who could not attend the meeting due to Somaliland threats.

[NGONGE]

MF,

I have not represented anything you wrote. The problem here was about the Garads meeting and the SL government preventing them from doing so. How in the world would I know that the 'elites' you speak about were people different from the Garads who are central to this problem?

 

Stepping nimbly over Xiin's hyperbole, let me repeat what I said earlier and what I'll continue saying. This is not a wise way to do things (regardless of PL's position). The position you hold here is very weak and the argument you present does SL no favours.

 

Now, I can see you mistook my own position as some sort of support for PL or the nonsense its supporters are trying to sell here. I do not need to listen to any PL advice on this issue. The news keeps showing them up at every turn. However, what they are saying is no different to what you are saying. AND, this is why I am picking on you. You are on my side dammit.

[xiinfaniin]

^^The difficulty of making a difference without distinction

 

 

The whole notion of closing non existent borders is weak awoowe

[NGONGE]

^^ A different argument altogether, Xaaji. What was that about difference without distinction again?