Under an Acacia Tree

[Cowke]

Originally posted by Peace Action:

For partical reasons, let us shorten the list of stackholders to Puntland, Somaliland and the south. I totally agree that it is about time Somalis sit down on dirin under a tree as Baashi use to suggest before and as you are suggesting today.

 

The main problem in Somalia is in the South and mainly in the capital city of Mogadishu. How to pacify the south and this city has perplexed everyone who attempted to do it.

 

The stakeholders in the South must be persuaded to attend a Somali dirin somewhere in a neutral place inside Somalia where the outcome will be binding on all. The question I have what place can be peaceful and yet acceptable to all stackholders from the South such as TFG, Al shabaab, HI, Ahlu Sunna, and reps from clans, Puntland, Somaliland?

Ina salad boy said it on VOA what the solution is. You need every section of mogadishu be clerics/politicians/oday/business community/diaspora to be apart of the peace of process so that hamar can be united in all the key areas of that city? This will pacify the city as no section of society was left out of the process.

 

Its kind of similar to the garowe conference in 1998 or even the burco conference.

 

U need bring all stakeholders from each section of every clans society and unite everyone. Politicians are not even to pacify a city. Thats all they send to peace conference is politicians from clans.

 

There needs to some sort of criteria that has to be set by an indepedent watchdog that monitors that "quality" is maintained during the peace process. We can't expect moryans to sit down and agree? we need halal stakeholders that have met certain criteria that has already been set by indepedent watchdog to sit down and discuss for nation what path to take.

 

Bringing moryans won't help because all they will care about is that little cash they getting from isbaaro's and airport taxes and that is what comes first for them its their pockets before the nation system.

 

So ina salad boy gave the solution on VOA and that solved north-east and north-west somalia issues

[Thierry.]

Good topic Saxiib,

 

In my view there are a lot of problems that greater Somalia suffers, however without a shadow of doubt the single threat and problem at this moment is the zero sum game the various pseudo Islamist groups are playing.

The South should not be painted with one brush other groups have matured and realised (albeit at the expense of growth and death of many innocent lives) that they cannot win out right therefore negotiation and comprise however slow and rigid it is the only solution.

 

My proposal is the rest should cooperate and make the new kid in the block wake up and smell the coffee. For if he brakes the south we all know he is only going to one direction.

 

We cannot sit under a tree and negotiate when the youngest brother sits there with a suicide vest on, and believes the key to heaven is for him to blow himself up.

 

T

[Che -Guevara]

MMA That's unfortunate about your dad but reality dictates if you want young men to die for, you either buy them (Al-Shabaab don't have resource) or you give them something they could believe in and sense of purpose. Al-Shabaab gave these young men sense of purpose and with such devotion, I don't think any warlord would stand chance and Sheikh Sharif won't certainly be in Villa Somalia if it wasn't for the well armed AMISOM mercenaries.

 

I don't know how long the West will continue giving money to AMISOM and Zenawi but I do know is that TFG or if anything that comes after is useless and weak. And one doesn't negotiate with weak.

 

We will see how long they will continue pouring money into AMISOM but time is all on Al-Shabaab's side.

 

Personally, I hope Al-Shabaab takes over the country. Mercenaries in Xamar and American drones are the only obstacles now.

 

We could sit under any tree when the country is secured.

[N.O.R.F]

Originally posted by Hales:

Its this symbolism that im talking about and is more decisive in keeping you unrecognized. You see im not denying the powers those you mentioned; butim implying that Somaliland will always be a controversial issue and something that American and western leaders would not get involved nor are interested in, unless it somehow ends up having the geopolitical and historical significace of a country such as Kosovo overnight. But even then because of the historical differences between the two and the more illogical reason for seccession from Somaliland it wouldnt be looked at the same.

Also just because one nation in the USC decides to recognize Somaliland it wouldnt end the whole recognition affair, all the nations in UN wouldnt end up doing the same thing. But like you said the Arab element would always be there.

Also Italy a powerful European nation is keeping the issue blocked in Europe so there goes your UNSC from Europe and you would bet your chances on China who has Taiwan to deal with.

Somalia or the TFGs stance is clear on this, the issue is a matter of seccession If they do pull of such a thing such as recognition, there would be potential unneccessary consequences and it would be destabilising.

 

 

But the truth is that the African union is an African entity that in general represents the African nations independently and Western nations (that helped establish it) would refer to it symbolically, since major western stakes arent involved.

This is why the symbolism is so strong.

Would you propose a carrot or two for SL?

 

Thierry, quite true. We would have to tell everyone to strip to their underwear (and then put their clothes on again) before they approach the tree

[Chocolate and Honey]

Step 1: Let each major and minority clan from the South send representative from various backgrounds(Education, Bussiness, Law). Conditions: a)The elected representatives must NOT be part of(AND have never been part of) any elected goverement(TFG, Puntland) prior to this. B) Elected representatives MUST have formal education.

 

Step II

A free election must be held. In this stage, the presidential nominees must present CLEAR action plan. They must also expose their political stance. For instance, if one is wanting to a democratic goverment, then one should declare it and not pay lip service to Islamic sharia. The people have to have a choice.

 

Step III

ANY groups NOT part of the goverment must be disarmed by the goverment backed by international forces. This is where the parliment and elected officials come to play. Al-shabaab dhulka maka dhalin. They're the sons of somebody.

 

The Seccessionist should be left a lone in this early stage of the game to avoid starting another civil war. Once the goverment stablizes and the country begins to build, then they should be invited to a roundtable discussion.

[N.O.R.F]

^Indeed. Wish to draft the ‘Somalia Inter Clan Peace Initiative’? This would be in the form of a contract signed by the representatives of all clans and their sub-clans.

 

The political make up is all wrong at the moment.

 

Oody,

 

Fair enough but the point Hales is making is a telling one. SL’s recognition is dependent on the international community. This community is made up of various stake holders notably the Arab League of which Somalia is a part of. The UNSC will be swayed by these stakeholders. Most members of the AL have good relations with the UNSC and would never accept the partition of one of it’s countries without the express permission of that country (Somalia) in case it is them fighting to keep their country intact in the future.

 

I believe the ONLY way SL can achieve recognition is through a referendum in a stable Somalia. Now, if Somalia gave it’s acceptance of a referendum in the first 5 years of a stable and back on track country would that be enough of a carrot for SL? In that time Somalia will obviously do it’s upmost to sway public opinion in SL and probably offer more carrots such federal autonomy and a rotating presidency between clans.

 

So, will you accept (as I pass you another plate of xalwa and an extra sweet cup of Somali tea)?

[Chocolate and Honey]

Norf,

I would draft it but only in the form of a Ghost writer,lol! Politics, specifically Somali politics boil my blood.

 

 

I believe the ONLY way SL can achieve recognition is through a referendum in a stable Somalia. Now, if Somalia gave it’s acceptance of a referendum in the first 5 years of a stable and back on track country would that be enough of a carrot for SL? In that time Somalia will obviously do it’s upmost to sway public opinion in SL and probably offer more carrots such federal autonomy and a rotating presidency between clans.

 

Afkaaga xalwa lagu qabay. This is exactly the point I've always emphasized in regards to SL. I say this to anyone against the Seccession: first,NOBODY wants to be a part of a failed country with no goverment to speak of.

Somalia has to agree with the seccession for the International community to recognize SL but before Somalia does that, The Somali goverment has to be given an opportunity to present its case for UNITY and sway public opinion. In order for this to happen, there HAS to be a stable, functioning Somali goverement for at least 3-5 years.

[rudy-Diiriye]

no jacjacleh! that aint gonna work.

[Haatu]

The only problem in the South is that Al Shabaab & XI will never sit down and talk to anyone, whether Shariif or Shaydaan. Other than that, it's manageable.

 

If the TFG wants to succeed, it needs to get the support of either S/land or P/land; P/land probably. Without the support of one of the above, it will fall into the abyss with Al Shabaab taking Xamar Caddeey. What it also needs is an inspirational leader who is a born orator who can win the support of the populace and the wealthy merchants. It is well known that these businessmen are the ones who supply the various factions with weapons and finance. If they were to be united in support for the TFG, then winning over the rest of the population will be much easier. But as long as the businessmen are opposed to the TFG, then it will struggle to sucure Xamar iskaba dhaaf Dalka oo dhan. Back to the point of winning over the support of the northern administrations; by having one of them on board, it will provide the TFG a base to train its troops and to launch expiditions to recapture the vital North-South road which the economy of the country depends on. P/land will also provide it a base to test the federal system where the government & the P/land regional administration share tax revenues and to draw up the blueprints of the future nationwide economy. As for the armed terrorist groups, their death knell was its persecution of the innocent public. To defeat these terrorists, all the government needs to do is provide the public with a real alternative that can provide a measure of stability. If the government presents itself as this alternative, then the general public will rally behind them no doubt. As for S/land, like Hales & CH said, let the national government have it's say first. After say 10 of unity, let a referendum be held. If they choose succession, then sadly no doubt the national government will send in the troops and an another civil war will break out. But if they choose unity, then Hargeisa should be made into the cultural and financial capital with the stock market based there. As for P/land, before any of this can be achieved, it has to promise it will follow the federal charter and not demand more than it deserves. And that means no you can't have a representative to go with the TFG to international meetings.

[Abwaan]

lol@ soo dhaweynta Norfsky. Intaa markii la helo maxaa xiga?

[Saalax]

Since the problem seems to be in the south inorder to have a stable somalia , a peace must be in the south particularly the capital mogadishu, since the south seems to be the major problem and woes of somalia i will list 10 ways to bring peace to the shattered land.

 

 

1.Dismantle any Anti Peace groups /Al Shabab / X.I etc.

 

2.Disarm the local militias in urban cities for Ex. Mogadishu.

 

3.Make sure each clan is up for peace if not ask them why and meet their demands if it's a necessary approach.

 

 

4.Dismantle Warlords as they are also part of the wider problem since each have many weapons and militias which cause continuing unrest for 19 years in the south.

 

 

5.Form a very strong national army include all ex enemies if they are willing to work with you in rebuilding the lost paradise called somalia.

 

 

6.Make sure the national troops are given their necessary salary if not we both know what will happen they will either desert the army and join rebel groups/extremists etc.

 

 

7.Make every clan the leaders of their deegaan as this will reduce them seening the government as a violation to their clan territory and rights, appoint police chiefs, mayors, governors etc from people who are natives to the deegaan to reduce the tensions.

 

 

8.Invite all opposition parties those who are interested in peace, and those are not interested try to pressure them to attend the peace first, if not confrontation is necessary.

 

 

9.Try to meet each groups griefs and demands as they will make the government possible for everyone to join since they will know it's based on fairness and each groups griefs are met.

 

 

10. End of the Road.

 

 

that is my two coins on southern somalia.

[Hales]

Thanks Norfy for clearing up what was trying to tell Oodweyne, he doesnt seem to understand. And i agree that it should be done that way.

 

 

Ok Oodweyne i did not write that Italy was part of the UNSC this is what i meant, in your own words

 

UK and France have already signed on to a common platform with their EU partners in regarding this issue; but that is, by-the-by, a "holding position

 

And this is basically the whole point of the debate which i responded to in the first lines in my second reply

 

 

Which means, if the political weather were to change in these two countries, then, all talk about what the old European's common policy may have said about Somaliland's issue will be so much of a yesterday's dog's breakfast

 

The decision to create a new state would not be so simple and nations would not simply rush into as your saying because their is a difference in thinking of foreign policy. A decision to recognize and put the seccionist regime first instead of Somalia would be a major decisions which would involve the AU nations and the Arab league. Plus like you said its symbolic, the two entities are there for a reason and are very important. This is not 1950 where the big four used to take all the decision without any consulting.

Theres nothing major in stake for the western powers, so they would naturally leave it to the entities which knows the region best.

 

You said security would be promptly a reason for recognition of Somaliland for example you could argue that they can because Somaliland would be in a threat of invasion by Alshabaab 1) Somaliland is hardly involved in Somalia, so there is no foreign policy or involvement in the stabillization of Somalia 2) if their was a foreign policy there is Ethiopia and Puntland which does have an interest in Somalia and Puntland, and Ethiopia would carry out the tasks like they did in 2007.

 

What im saying is that a country like Somaliland is alien (lack of understanding of the nation and its history and the implications) and would much rather take the safe path and wait for Somalia to emerge.

 

Lastly its true that African Union and Arab league are a smoke screen in relation to the powers the UNSC nations but like i said its not just about power its about taking a big decisions which would have many effects throughout the region and involve many nations.

So far this has been the case for 20 years and one of the many reasons why Somaliland hasnt been recognized.

 

I hope this my arguments the settled now.

[Peace Action]

Oodweyne,

North gave you a reasonable scenario for SL to get recognition and for the life of me, even though you said no, I still have no clue what you wrote. Come back and answer why you will insist on a path that produced no results for 20 years and reject out of hand this reasonable proposal.

[AfricaOwn]

Originally posted by Oodweyne:

Norfsky

,

 

 

Similarly, Somaliland have rejected out of hand; and I am sure of it, that even Kulmiye party (

if it comes to power in Hargeisa

) will reject it out of hand indeed now....

 

 

Regards,

Oodweyne.

Basically..Very simply put.

 

norf is just a confused character.

[me]

Secessionist thread, opened by a well-known secessionist.

 

Nothing of interest here.