Fussing and fighting continues…sixteen years and counting.

[Baashi]

Fussing and fighting continues…sixteen years and counting.

Waxa-la-Yiri “the day after” edition

By Doc-ka-Yeer inna Shabeel-Lagde.

*Commentary*

 

A new year is about to begin and the tragedy that descended upon Somalis in early 90’s has no signs of slowing down. If anything this New Year will arguably be the bloodiest year of all. The E-factor is on its way of reaching new heights as it approaches the peak on the sinusoidal curve.

 

The UIC’s staying power, Ethiopia’s regional and domestic interests, and TFG’s survival are all hanging in the balance. This is a conflict none of the players involved can afford to lose. After all, the big dog in Addis made a public commitment in which he vowed to protect the weak TFG if threatened. And today threatened they are.

 

PM Zenawi is determined to keep the lid on Ethiopia’s volatile ethnic composition under control and he can’t afford backtracking now in the face of UIC’s Jihad threat. To do so will farther embolden separatist factions, be Somalis or Oromo, inside Ethiopia and might endanger center-to-periphery order Addis, with Tigreans at the helm, enjoys today.

 

The UIC is now between coalition of powers that want to see its demise and TFG that want to use these powers as a tool to eliminate them as they have become effective political foe for the control of the post-conflict era government – if it ever materializes. It is unfortunate and from my point of view a disgrace that they have fallen to this trap where their all resources and energy are mobilized and directed to a conflict that have no end in sight. They now have to drop the ball in far more important social issues for they don’t have the institutional capacity to manage all the problems thrown at them.

 

With no significant cards in its hand, the TFG is hanging “in there” literally. No significant reconciliation process worthy of our mention is underway. With its report card showing big “F” on this score, the TFG paints the UIC with the convenient “Al-Qaeda” red color and tries to convince the Bushes of the world to help her get rid off this menace that’s growing in the strategic Horn of Africa.

 

In the middle of all these layers of intrigue are Somalis weary and tired of perpetual civil conflict fuelled by both domestic squabbling and foreign interferences. This conflict flares up under the background of devastating floods that rendered the life of some pockets of south unbearable.

 

Fussing and fighting among poor and illiterate Somalis will continue for now. In the meantime the elites and diaspora voices rooting for one faction ot another of this tragic civil war will keep doing their cheerleading from the comfort of a faraway and peaceful homes.

 

If one could put the collective silent thoughts of those who are so unfortunate to get caught in the middle of the fighting forces into words, their silent voices would read: WE WANT NO MORE TROUBLE. The fate has it that they have to endure one more year of fussing and fighting in their areas. Or so it seems. May Allah alleviate the difficulties they are going through.

 

Sixteen years of difficult and perpetual tug of war that neither contestants nor its backers managed to win a decisive victory is sure a preview of the hell itself.

 

What Waxa-la-Yiri frontline reporters found unforgivable is the missed opportunities that keep presenting themselves again and again and again. The unbearable sight we are forced to witness such as Inna Yussuf’s faith in outside forces seizing the power for him is only matched the theatrics of later day mu’min Indhacadde’s calling for Jihad against Inna Yussuf and his Ethiopian backers.

 

Sidii roon Allahayoow

[xiinfaniin]

Sidii roon Allahoyow, aamiin.

[Baashi]

Haven't you heard the great news yaa Xiin?

 

According to Waxa-La-Yiri's own Mr. Qishaaye, the top men of UIC and TFG have now agreed to sit down and look each other squarely in the eye and see if they can settle the scores in a ring behind big boy Bashir's mundul in Khartoum. That's great news...music to the Waxa-La-Yirri staff.

 

This route is a route the Editor-in-Chief of Waxa-La-Yiri has been writting about in the editors pages for last several weeks.

 

If this news is something to go by, the UIC looks to have gotten assurances from EU that Somalis will own the reconciliation process. The Ethios will hopefully recieve assurances that the Jihad against it off the table so that Melez can save face.

 

It is all good awoowe. Everyone wins. Above all the residents of the area can unpack their donkey and sleep in their Mundul for now and hope Uways and Yussuf for their infinite wisdom will at least agree to share power and cut the BS to a tolerable level.

 

Awoowe Alle-U-Baahane baan ku qalqaalinayaa in uu taxiga ka dego oo Jihadka ka qayb gale ee fi amaani laah .

[xiinfaniin]

Alle-ubaahane, waa shiddaysanyahay awoowe! Nin Jihaad u socda maaha ninku. Markaan is iraahdo wuxuu ka mid yahay ciidamada caaradka ah ee Baydhabo ku sii siqiyaba, Boston buu kasoo hadlaa .

 

Ever heard;

wax santuuri gaardiyi ogaa guusha nabadeede

Gunka laga haleeliyo ***** gadawyadeediye'e

 

As for the peace news, waan ku diirsaday saaxiib! Wax badan ma dhex yaalaane kiiska layska waalayaa! Nimankani odoga waa aqoonsadeen hadduu rabo in wax xukumo oo calaf dawlad nimo ku leeyahay ha la heshiiyo hana u tanaazulo.

 

Awoowe nin guri dhalo ah ku jiraa dhagax ma tuuro. Ina Yuusuf hal xiraale buu igu noqday. Wax garta wuxuu rabo la waa. Malaha ninkii qalab buris ka lihi wax walba musmaar buu moodaadi baa ku rumowday .

 

 

Allow nabad keen!

[Baashi]

lol@ninkii qalab buris ka lihi wax walba musmaar buu moodaa

 

You hear something new every day. Never heard this one. Good one though.

 

Looks like they are back to square one! I'm kinda wondering if the colonels are in full control. How could they give their word to high delegates of EU and after hours eat it back? Makes me wonder who's pulling the strings!!!!!!!!

 

Where do we stand awoowe...I'm confused! Is it draw? Too early to make the call? What is ur feeds say? U r in MN where news from the home front pours like CNN covering a scandal in Washington halls of power lol..

 

Igu akhri awoowe I'm all ears...

[xiinfaniin]

Baashi, the fight still continues. I have come to respect the invisible forces that seem to control the circumstances. How else would one explain the acceptance of the European initiative by both sides followed, almost simultaneously, by an eruption of war? Sword-rattler and tail-turner alike, war is what it is now yaa Baashi!

 

And from what I can gather, it is too early to make a call. But my political analysis tells me there could only be two scenarios, if this indeed turns out an all-out war:

 

1- Courts win by either militarily defeating TFG (and driving it out of Baydhabo) or by holding their ground.

2- TFG wins by significantly advancing into the Deep South. Bushing back the Courts wont mean anything for TFG at this juncture.

 

When I say ‘win’ here, I am using it quite liberally. They way I see it, yaa Baashi, is that in the final analysis TFG loses either way, if it indeed enters an open conflict with Courts and the door of negotiations with them gets closed shut. My reasoning is that if the TFG gets the upper hand this conflict, this war goes regional as the calls for jihad echoes in that part of our world. My assumption is Mogadishu will forever remain off limits for the TFG short of political settlement between the warring parties.

 

I can’t see Courts losing this fight. They are a radical remedy to our intractable political problem. To be sure, it will not help them socially (social agendas) or militarily as an entity. But their sacrifices may help eradicate a political attitude and put out of business a generation of warlord leaders.

 

I am going to Minneapolis sii aan wax usoo xuuraamiyo…IA!

[Baashi]

Originally posted by xiinfaniin:

 

I can’t see Courts losing this fight. They are a radical remedy to our intractable political problem. To be sure, it will not help them socially (social agendas) or militarily as an entity. But their sacrifices may help eradicate a political attitude and put out of business a generation of warlord leaders.

 

I beg to differ awoowe. They have already lost the war. I'm talking about the other war. This war is multivariable differential equation. Success is a function of...which is in turn is a function of...which has limitited ranges btw 0 to 1. Awoowe hadde ila soco waa shax cirka lagu dagayee e.