'Is new American Policy toward Somalia in the making?

[xiinfaniin]

Read this report.

[xiinfaniin]

Since it abruptly pulled out its troops 1993, America has showed little or no interest in restoring functioning government in Somalia. It declined to support Mr. Qasim’s government and tacitly sided with Ethiopia and it’s claims (Mr. Qasim is in bed with Alqaida). When Kenya hosted the Somali piece process, America has been noticeably missing from the process and didn’t seem to appreciate the significance of resolving Somalia’s conflict. It was very slow to react to the selection of the parliament and the subsequent election of the President.

 

The official reaction from the State Department was both ambiguous and reserved. That defied the logic of Ethiopia’s political clout: Ethiopia’s support of this government would secure Washington’s blessing. Have Somali conflict reached a point where the interest of Ethiopia diverges from that of US? Is America siding with Egypt, and not with Ethiopia, when it matters most? Where does this leave with the future of this unfortunate Somalia?

 

Or is it another opportunity for Washington to abort the current political progress in Somalia and prolong the civil war?

 

Perhaps I am reading too much in to this, but it seems to me that Washington’s insistence for this government to go Mogadishu and its objection against deploying foreign troops is on to some thing!

[wind.talker]

You're probably reading too much into this, sxb. America's interests in the Horn of Africa are protected by the Ethiopian regime; because, Ethiopia is Washington 'eyes and ears' in the region. The Egyptian factor - perhaps, America is giving Hosni Mubarak an incentive for his declaration of an upcoming multi-party elections in Egypt.

 

Whatever the case, America is far too busy socio-politically 'reforming' the Middle East to worry about some backward African nation like ours.

[Haddad]

Somalia shouldn't rely on Ethiopia, the US or any non-Muslim country. Ethiopia hasn't yet recovered from the shocks it sustained from mujahid Ahmed Gurey's battles and conquests, when it come that close to be totally overrun, and cried to Europe for help (the result of the Portuguese helping them). For that, Ethiopia will forever view Somalia as its eternal enemy, and work behind the scenes to undermine its stability. The US has no interest in a stable Somalia, because it has failed to stabilize it while spending $billions. Ethiopia's worst fears is a Somalia run with an Islamic system of governance. The US also fears that. And the reason why they associate such a system or anyone involved in the word "Islam" or "Islamic" with "terrorism" is, because they fear a repeat of what happened in the times of Ahmed Gurey.

[xiinfaniin]

wind.talker,

 

If America’s interest is protected by Ethiopia and Ethiopia, as you said, is the’ eyes and ears’ of Washington, why then these two governments aren’t on the same page as far as the support of this TFG is concerned? If America is too busy reforming Middle Eastern societies, and Somalia doesn’t register in Washington’s radar when it’s thrown in to the mix of world politics, why, then, Washington is compelled to make all theses recent pronouncements?

 

Wouldn’t it suffice for her to delegate these not-so-significant assignments to Ethiopia if there’s no tangible divergence of interest, as Tolstoy pointed?

[xiinfaniin]

Tolstoy,

 

I like your hypothesis of Ethiopia gradually losing regional significance as US shrewdly understood the dynamics of ‘the ever-shifting alliance building within the horn-of-Africa.’

 

Remains to be seen though, if this ‘geo-strategical’ change would cause America to pursue independent regional policy towards Somalia, given Kenya and Djibouti, and Yemen for that matter, are on the same the page with Ethiopia on this!

[wind.talker]

XIIN -

 

When the U.S. assigns a special envoy for Somali affairs, then they're truly taking charge. Their opposition to Ethiopian troops is understandable: they don't want to create more of the so-called Islamic extremists. If Ethiopian troops set foot on our soil, its jihad. Next thing you know, foreign fighters are in Muqdisho helping defeat the ETs. Which means the Somali conflict jumps from a tribal-political one to a religious one which could easily gain widespread Muslim support.

 

Besides, if you've seen Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi's press release, you'll know that he said the 'offer' is on the table. At the end of the day, after all this paranoia about Ethiopian troops, they won't arrive. The Parliament won't let them, the Somali people won't let them, the A.U. won't let them and the U.N. won't let them.

[xiinfaniin]

Mareykanka oo soo dhugtay Soomaaliya

 

Yusuf-Garaad

 

Dowladda Mareykanka ayaa sheegtay in ay ka soo horjeeddo in ciidan ka socda dalalka deriska ah la geeyo dalka Soomaaliya.

 

War ka soo baxay Wasaaradda Arrimaha Dibadda ee Mareykanka ayaa sheegay in Mareykanku la wadaago beesha caalamka iyo dad badan oo Soomaaliyeed walaaca ay ka qabaan ciidan shisheeye oo la geeyo Soomaaliya. Warku waxaa uu sheegay in dalalka Soomaaliya la deriska ahi ay dano iyaga muhiim u ah ay ka leeyihiin Soomaaliya, kuwaas oo sida ugu wanaagsan ee ay ku ilaashan karaan ay tahay dhismaha dowlad dhexe oo Soomaaliyeed oo waxqabad leh oo laga hirgeliyo Soomaaliya.

 

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Mareykanku waxaa uu sheegay in ciidan kasta oo la geynayo Soomaaliya aan laga qeyb gelin ciidan ka socda dalalka la deriska ah. Haddii ciidammo dalalka deriska ah lagu daro hawlgalka, waxay dowladda Soomaaliyeed ku noqoneysaa ayuu warku yiri caqabad aan laga tallaabsan karin oo uga gudban taageerada iyo kalsoonida ay uga baahan tahay shacabka Soomaaliyeed.

 

Doodda ku saabsan ciidammada Soomaaliya la doonayo in la geeyo, waxaa maalmahanba ka taagnaa khilaaf sii kordhaya. Waxaa uu khilaafku u dhexeeyaa gaar ahaan Madaxweynaha, Cabdullaahi Yusuf Axmed iyo Raiisal Wasaaraha, Cali Maxamed Geeddi, oo daafacayay kana dhaadhicnayay dadweynaha in la keeno ciidan shisheeye oo aan loo kala saarin saf hore iyo mid dambe.

 

Dhinaca kale waxaa ka soo horjeeda ra'yigaas hoggaamiyayaal hubeysan oo hadda Wasiirro ka ah dowladda oo ka soo horjeeda in ciidan laga keeno dalalka deriska ah. Hoggaamiyayaashaas oo dhammaantood ka soo jeeda magaalada Muqdisho waxaa ka mid ah, Ra'iisal Wasaare ku xigeen isla markaana ah Wasiirka Arrimaha Gudaha, Xuseen Maxamed Caydiid, oo isaga oo Baydhaba jooga BBC-da u sheegay in aanuu qabin in la keeno ciidan shisheeye.

 

Baarlamaanka Soomaaliya ayaa lagu wadaa in uu maalmaha foodda nagu soo haya go'aan ka gaaro waxa laga yeelayo ciidan shisheeye.

 

Rajo wanaagsan

 

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Mareykanka oo markii sannadkii 2000 dalka Djibouti lagu dhisay dowlad Soomaaliyeed aan sidaa u daneyn ayaa intii ka dambeysay weerarkii argagixso ee dalkiisa lagu qaaday Sebtembar 2001, waxaa uu u muuqata khatarta ka imaan karta Qaran burbura.

 

Hadalka Mareykanku soo saaray, waxaa uu muujinayaa in Mareykanku daneynayo waxa ka socda Soomaaliya, waxaana dadka qaar u muuqan karta rajo laga qabi karo in uu gacan ka geysto dhismaha dowlad Soomaaliyeed oo ku dhisan qaabka uu warku tilmaamay oo ah wadaxaajood iyo dib u heshiin.

 

Source: BBC

[General Duke]

Interesting indeed we wait and see. As for yusuf garad what ever he states must be taken with much salt Thanks to Xiin for the post.

[xiinfaniin]

Though there’s no certainty as to the final destination of the latest political storm in our beloved Horn, one can very much see that the political skills of all warlords, regional leaders, and other entities are put in to a test. Somalia’s current political status is threatened!

 

Mogadishu warlords are shaken to their core! This blustery wind is blowing to their direction. At stake are all the gains (political or other wise) that they’ve made last 14 years. For them, not-so-favorable changes seem imminent. Some of them seem to have resigned to the inevitability of coming changes. Others have promised their resolve and won’t relinquish power without fierce resistance.

 

In the northern shores, Somaliland politicians are pre-occupied and interested in the southern politics as they have stake in it. This time though, they seem to have decided to take sides. No foreign troops necessary to solve this decade old conflict, they say. Our brothers are capable of solving their problems without foreign interventions, they add. The injection of foreign troops, they warn, will exacerbate the situation. They seem to have lost the initiative for now and appear sympathetic for Mogadishu warlords! At stake are the future of Somaliland’s statehood and its relationship with Ethiopia!

 

The Puntland politicians are intoxicated by the unexpected victory of the presidency. They’re jubilantly celebrating and they seem, at the moment, to have exercised some political shrewdness and shifted the dynamics of the southern politics. Their perception-changing mission is bearing some fruits: Mogadishu status is on the table and deploying of foreign troops is on the agenda as well. They seem to have secured the support of regional powers. In that sense, stakes have never been higher.

 

BUT all of that was before America voiced its objection to the proposed deployment of foreign troops! More than any thing else the timing of their statement interests me! And if they seriously mean business, all the celebratory gunshots will cease and Mr. Yusuf political advisors have to adopt another strategy. As it seems, in America’s scale, Mogadishu (politically and economically) weights more than Mr. Yusuf concedes.

 

Why America would ever dwarf Ethiopia’s gains (assuming Mr. Yusuf is a close friend with Ethiopia’s leader)I ask? Or is it a political riddle that only few have the ability to decipher I wonder? Like the one put-forth by the great Somali poet Mohamed Dheeg of Hargiesa when he said:

 

Shebegga iyo dabinkii la dhigay sheyna geli waaye

Shuuqsigii wax loo kala wadiyo shaag is rogi waaye

Inta shooladee uu baqtiyey shamici nuuraayey

ee aan dib loo shidanahayn sheeg haddaad garato!

 

Ninka nabadda shaanshaan ku maqan mara shullaa geeyey

Sheekada khayaaliga raggaa shubaya ee jiifa

Goortay shadaaftiyo go'iyo shaadhka sare tuuri

Shaqaaqadana qaybtiisa heli sheeg haddaad garato

 

Shafka-reenka hoosiyo nacliga uurka lagu sheelay

Iyo qosolka sheeda ah ee dibnaa sheeshka laga qaaday

Iyo shuqulka aabihii dhintee lala shuglaynaayo

Shawahaaddu waa meel kalee sheeg haddaad garato!