War deg deg ah: Somaliland oo ka baxday Dhahar iyo Xinglool oo laga sii rasaaseyey

[NASSIR]

Originally posted by Paragon:

 

The only country that would have come was Ethiopia, and the only reason that would have brought them there, would have been the talk of 'terrorists in Sanaag' area. This means business to Ethiopia- they get funded to go to places where supposed 'terrorists' are hidding.

 

American dollars animates the Ethiopians as of late. However,

since Sanaag is now a conflict zone and the claim of global terrorists is out of the picture (due to Puntland being deployed there), Ethiopia cannot find any other reason to be there, nor can it choose between these two states.

Ethiopian interests in both states is at risk if it were to choose one side.

 

On the one hand, Somaliland, due to proximity to/and border with Ethiopia, there are economic and security interests that cannot be neglected at all. Also, Ethiopia has the privilage of being the only country that currently trades with Somaliland . If Somaliland's border conflicts to its east are solved, this may pave the way for International recognition. Thus, Somaliland trade would have the whole world to trade with. Ethiopia loses out in this prospects and must maintain an almost permanent conflict between Somaliland and Puntland.

 

On the other hand, Puntland is a great political asset to Ethiopia - it might be the only enabling entity in Somalia that has proved sucessful in Ethiopia's procurement of American dollars, all in the name of terrorists in Southern Somalia. Nationally, Puntland is the financier of the TFG, which has given the green light to Ethiopian invasion of Mogadishu. Ethiopia thus is left with no choice but to remain neutral between Puntland and Somaliland, for if it doesn't, it stands to lose alot.

 

The conflict, therefore, becomes a bull-fight between Puntland and Somaliland, while the inhabihants of the region become the grass. As for the advantages and disadvantages of a potentially prolonged war, Puntland has to mobilise its forces and bring its troops in Mogadishu to Sanaag, leaving Ethiopian troops to the control without any interruptions. Puntlanders have done the job of leading Ethiopians to Mogadish so now they can step down, as far as Ethiopia is concerned.

 

This war would exhaust both Puntland and Somaliland's strengths and would prove a major catastrophy for the locals. When both Puntland and Somaliland are exhausted, it would be time for Ethiopia to simply take control of the weak Puntland and Somaliland.

Well said, both SL and PL have learned their lessons long time ago. It is not wise to ignore the past and beat the drums of war. The reaction of Riyale to fire his defense chief is a good note.

[Paragon]

^^Lol, maybe it is a desciplinary action against him by the Tai Pan himself, Meles. Any state that attacks the other loses its defence minister . Could be what made Puntland retreat, to show that it take orders from the top and impliments it. But Somaliland hasitated and when Riyale realised Meles wasn't making idle threats, he sucked the Defence minister to show his loyalty .