Winners Losers and the fate of Somalia :post TFG

[General Duke]

 

The winners are clear in the demise of the TFG. It is the secessionist camps that apart from the Hargaysa bombings and the emergence of Goodane have largely been spared the blood shed and problems of the south. They have even made some gains on the ground.

 

The main problems facing Somaliland is that it has a paper army, that Riyaale is very unpopular with the major clan and has now tended to become more authoritarian and corrupt.

If the new election goes well the project of the secessionist will be on course, thus it is important that the election is seen as fair and not rigged, a new face will probably help rejuvenate the secessionist cause even further.

 

Puntland has been a clear loser in the demise of the TFG, it spent man and material to help support Abdullahi and has lost much in its internal security and development in the pursuit of the Somaliweyn dream. It now has no choice but to divert its attention to its western fronts and realign its interests. A big question will be answered in the coming months when it is clear what the makeup of the new administration is.

 

The many troops of the TFG armed forces from Puntland will no doubt return and play a key role in the security of the state.

Puntland has also benefited from the demise of the TFG, it has over the past few months become more united, more focused on its internal issues as it slowly moves into a policy of isolation from the South.

 

The southern groups:

 

The RRA and indigenous clans of the south [Lower Shabbele, Jubba’s] have been the clear winners of the TFG rise and period of power. The armed clans of IndaCade, Xasan Dahir and others have been largely castrated and their hold over the region is non existent. The city of Baidoa is doing better today than any other time since the war, this was largely thanks to its position as the Parliament capital of Somalia.

The cities of Marka, Barava and others were under the control of a single armed sub-clan that has been routed by the TFG/Ethiopia and the remaining members chased by the Al Shabaab group as they came into the area.

 

The former armed clans of Mogadishu:

 

This group which for a decade or so was the preeminent power of the south have now lost that position and it is very unlikely they will ever regain it.

This group has been the clear loser of the TFG rise and they tended to believe that they will regain some strength with its demise. The problem for their assumptions is clear, the clans of the south who were unarmed before are now armed, the parity of power has also shifted. Thus the regions of Bay, bakool, Gedo, Lowr Shabbele, Jubba’s have become tougher for the likes of IndaCade, Goobanle and others to come back.

 

The Al Shabaab: This group or groupings has become the most dangerous armed group in Somalia’s south or are portrayed conveniently as the most dangerous. It is set to make big gains soon and might swallow up areas within the capital. I doubt they can actually take it so long as the AMISOM troops are within the capital area, and they do not even need to do this.

 

The biggest problem is that these groups are independent of the armed clans of Mogadishu and their new hero Sharif Ahmed. This presents a dilemma for everyone, will they recognize Sharif Ahmed or anyone else or will they continue to fight as they have before. Both scenarios are possible though the stage is set for confrontation which will send Mogadishu and the south even deeper into the abyss.

[Qudhac]

WWW.CALAACAL.COM

[MZanzi]

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[Jacaylbaro]

Duke has finally spoken ..... now leave the old man alone

 

 

The winners are clear in the demise of the TFG. It is the secessionist camps that apart from the Hargaysa bombings and the emergence of Goodane have largely been spared the blood shed and problems of the south. They have even made some gains on the ground.

 

The main problems facing Somaliland is that it has a paper army, that Riyaale is very unpopular with the major clan and has now tended to become more authoritarian and corrupt.

If the new election goes well the project of the secessionist will be on course, thus it is important that the election is seen as fair and not rigged, a new face will probably help rejuvenate the secessionist cause even further.

 

[General Duke]

JB: The truth is Somaliland decision to stay out of these issues has been wise.

They have gained much, though they seem to be a target for Al Shabaab as everyone else is and Goodane is a local which presents certain problems.

 

Never the less my only difference with the secessionist camp is the land issue of SSC , and that can be resolved through dialogue preferably. I am not worried about the secessionist paper army and all and they will not blow themselves up like the other dudes.

 

Qudhac, a man devoid of ideas who could not even read as my man JB demonstrated.

[Jacaylbaro]

The issue of SS will be solved Insha Allah ,,, I don't support any sort of violence unless it is necessary.

[Geel_jire]

@ Duke has the fat lady finally sung for you sxb ?

 

Duke applauding secession .. I thought this day wouldn't come ... maybe oday yey is worse off than i thought .. hmm by any chance are you seeking asylum for the old man in hargeisa ?

[General Duke]

JB: I know you was never one of the crazy gang or how did they describe you a Cyber warrior..

 

GeelJire: The secessionist’s are the clear winners here. The rest of us have bad grades, Puntland gets a (D) The clan courts and the armed groups of Mogadishu get a (F) your group get a Horrible (HF).

 

Thus unlike you I try to use reason and these folks secessionist have gained an advantage.

[LayZie G.]

Dukey, there are no winners, just losers.

 

You believe that S-land can somehow advance their secession dream because adeero aa is casilay?

 

C'mon eedo, don't give false hope to that tuulo.

 

Secessioner are busy discussing the somali leaders and arguining back and forth about Nur Cade and yey, while all along forgetting that they have their own leader who is out begging the neighbouring countries for a handout, instead of staying put and governing his people.

 

That said, these secessioners seem to denounce our leaders for appealing to the international community, while their leader can't get a sit down. God knows he tried begging for help too many times. S-Land is "dameer dabadiisa ujeedin"

[nuune]

Leezi-Gaal, wax waalan, heedhe Somaliland wey dhaqaaqdey, soo ma ogid iney duushey

 

 

Duke, adeeroow bal yara naso, qumaati baad u dawakhdey wallee!

[Jacaylbaro]

The secessionist’s are the clear winners here. The rest of us have bad grades, Puntland gets a (D) The clan courts and the armed groups of Mogadishu get a (F) your group get a Horrible (HF).

.... loooooooool@HF ,,

[LayZie G.]

^LOL NUUNE, ADUUNYADA WAXA UGU NECBAHAY BOOTAYAALKA OO SECESSIONERKA EH, AKA YOUR BUDDY, THAT JELLO CREATURE. KULAHAA S-LAND WARNS AGAINST AXMAARO PULL OUT. WUXUU U HADLE SIDA IN QOF S-LAND DHAGEESATO.

[General Duke]

L-GIRL: I am no fan of the secessionist , however who gains from the demise of the TFG and let me be frank, after Yusuf there will be no TFG the way he went will send shockwaves through his base and many predict that most groups will go back to their home towns thus going back to pre 2004. We will have certain individuals with titles like President and so on, just like pre 2004. Who does this suit the most?

 

If Somaliland is lets say 1/3 of Somalia and they do no not recognize the central government and then now you have Puntland which is another 1/3 of Somalia not recognizing the government. The remaining 40% includes large areas under the control of your favorite folks.

 

The world media will say, Somali has no central government and all these think tanks that people specially the groups supporting Nur Cade kept quoting will just say there is no central government. Who does this benefit?

 

Yes the secessionists are captivated by the TFG, because they know who Yusuf is, what Puntland represents more deeply than the southern folks do.

Thus they know sense that Puntland energy will be spent elsewhere and they might even get a resolution from that end which they covet.

 

The demise of the central government only helps those who do not want a central government and that is the secessionists camp.

[nuune]

Leezi Gaal, looool adiga hadalkiisa maa ku dhibaayo, adba waxaa doonto daldal see camal adi yaakhayoo

 

 

waxaan u maleenayaa, wey dhaqaadey, wey duushey, s-land is here to stay, s-land warns against ethio pull out looool, erayadaas aa iska dhax aragtey yeah

[General Duke]

Nuune, adeer everything comes to an end. The end of the TFG does not mean much on the ground other than shifting political prospective and the biggest one is that within Puntland. Abdullahi Yusuf retirement will spell a competition for the new top leader and thus changing of the guards.

 

As for the comments about resting, I am a young man old boy don’t superimpose my person for yourself.