Ethiopia’s Zenawi: Betting on a losing horse

[Castro]

By Jamal Madar

 

Jan 6, 2006 — Meles Zenawi may be celbrating in his palace in Addis Ababa for his lightning victory over the poorly armed and ill-trained forces of Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) but his victory may soon prove to be hollow.

 

Zenawi’s US backed war aim was essentially two folds: First, to disrupt or destroy the ruling apparatus of the UIC and, depending on the success of combat operations, decapitate the whole UIC regime. Second, to replace the UIC with the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) headed by Abdillahi Yusuf, which is more receptively attuned to the Ethio-US interests and provide protection to it until such time when it has reasonably attained the capability to defend itself from Islamists.

 

Undoubtedly, Zenawi, under instructions from his US benefactor, has succeeded to remove the UIC from power, for the time being at least, but he has not been able to decapitate the UIC. The UIC forces hastily abandoned Mogadishu to spare civilian population from death and destruction and dispersed their militia and heavy weaponry around the country to fight another day. Conversely, the so-called extremist elements within the UIC, which Ethiopia and the US longed to capture or kill, are still out there in the wilderness, thumping their noses at Melez Zenawi.

 

As part of its on-going war against what George Bush described as “Islamo fascists”, Washington gave Addis Ababa the green light to invade Somalia and topple the UIC, which it [Washington] views “a new Taliban and al-Qa’ida sympathisers who were turning Somalia into a haven for terrorists including those responsible for the US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998,” according to The Australian.

 

"Washington encouraged Addis Ababa to go ahead. They provided the same sort of diplomatic cover they did for Israel going into Lebanon last summer, and for similar reasons — to keep a foothold in the region," said analyst Michael Weinstein according to The Daily Nation.

 

The TFG, which Zenawi staked so much of Ethiopia’s credibility, is not only ineffectual and unpopular, but it is also powerless militarily and cannot protect itself from the Islamists without prolonged Ethiopian military presence in Somalia- something, which Zenawi cannot afford at the moment because of the growing ONLF insurgency in the Somali region of Zone 5, his current hostilities with Eritrea coupled with the ever-increasing domestic opposition to his authoritarian rule and the international pressure on Addis Ababa to pull back its troops. Moreover, the perception in the Somali street is that ‘the TFG is nothing more than ‘a motley collection of traitors and mercenaries who are at the beck and call of Meles Zenawi’ and has little or no popular support in the country. Surely, if the TFG had any support among the Somali people, it wouldn’t have needed Ethiopia to fight for it. The only credible support that the TFG has until now comes largely from the heartlands of Abdillahi Yusuf’s hometown- the self-autonomous region of Puntland.

 

The TFG may be recognised by some 88 countries but, in the eyes of the Somali people, it is a discredited and reviled government associated with warlords. Most, if not all, of the blood–thirsty warlords who wreaked death and destruction across Mogadishu and its environs for the past one-and-a-half-decades were cabinet ministers that belonged to the TFG.

 

These warlords include: former ministers such as Security minister, Mohamed Afrah Qanyare, Trade minister, Muuse Sudi Yalahow, Religious affairs minister, Omar Mohamoud Mohamed and minister for Militia and Rehabilitation, Botan Isse Alin

 

Other warlords, without portfolio, inlcude Mohamed Dheere whose reign of terror in Jowhar- the seat of the TFG- put him in collision course with Abdillahi Yusuf and Ali Mohamed Gedi over government’s meagre resources. Eventually, Mohamed Dheere had to kick out the Ethiopian backed TFG from Jowhar forcing the government to flee to Baidao. Ironically, when the Islamists expelled him from Jowhar, Zenawi took Mohamed Dheere to his bosom and trained him and his followers in Feerfeer, Ethiopia.

 

Needless to say, these TFG warlord-ministers caused untold misery and mayhem right across the country.

 

It was only in June 2006 when the Islamists fully seized control of Mogadishu and defeated the TFG warlord-ministers that Prime Minister Gedi had actually sacked the four ministers in question for their involvement in the Somali bloodshed.

 

With the backing of Ethiopia, it is now business as usual for these same warlords. Mohamed Dheere is now back to Jowhar to restore and re-establish his warlord ship. Another warlord, Mohamed Afrah Qanyare, returned to his old hunting ground, Dayniile, Mogadishu, to re-exert his authority in there.

 

There is no doubt that the TFG lost its mantle of legitimacy when it allied itself with Ethiopia. It would be hard for the TFG to shrug off its image of subservience to Meles Zenawi as well as its past era of jungle mentality and warlordism.

 

On the contrary, the UIC forces brought about peace and stability throughout much of central and southern Somalia. They re-opened Mogadishu airport and seaport for business, both of which closed for more than one-and-a-half decades. They cleaned and collected mountains of garbage from the streets of Mogadishu, restored law and order, expelled all blood-thirsty warlords who killed, maimed and destroyed the lives of thousands upon thousands of Somali people and sold innocent muslim clerics by the dozen to the US as part of the CIA extra-ordinary rendition. The UIC authorities removed all barricades erected by TFG warlord-ministers in the main roads between townships and cities. More importantly, they evicted all squatters who occupied properties owned by other people and returned them back to their rightful owners.

 

If there were any blunders and mistakes to which the UIC authorities fell victim, it was that they have over reacted with their approach to certain sensitive and contentious issues, such as the banning of Khat where thousands of people’s livelihoods depended on, their empty rhetorical threats against Ethiopia [though Ethiopia occupied Somali territories] and the break-away republic of Somaliland where they could have won friends rather than enemies.

 

Such is the stark difference between the TFG and the UIC. It simply defies the conventional wisdom as to how the people who suffered so much for so many years under the warlord-ministers of the TFG would suddenly welcome back and offer support to their tormentors.

 

Given its past record of warlordism and its unholy alliance with Ethiopia, it is hard to imagine how the TFG would ever govern the country without popular support, which is the key to its success. If the past is any guide, the prospect of a protracted guerrilla war tactics against Ethiopia’s occupying forces and its puppet TFG is now a more realistic scenario than ever before. Surely, Zenawi is betting on a losing horse.

 

* The author is a Somali-Briton based in London, UK. He can be reached at adammadar@yahoo.com

 

Sudan Tribune

[Liibaan]

Ma Xabashi baa loo ooyayaa

 

 

well Hergeysa faction 10 times looser, they are not even in the map

 

see also another garbage article from somalidiid

 

 

Somaliland “Why Ethiopia didn’t help us?

 

Ethiopia recognized TFG, and also provided to TFG with trained and equipped troops

 

We (Somaliland) Only need recognition from Ethiopia!!! Its unfair at all

 

 

Mele Zanawi Of Ethiopia Made A Mistake!

Ibrahim Mead —

Ottawa, Canada —

28 December, 2006

 

 

Governments often lie when they indulge or engage wars! They tell their people lie and do the same to the world!

 

Prime Minister Zanawi lied about his war against Somalia. He lied to his people about it just like Mr. Bush did! But Mr. Mele is no Bush!

 

 

SNM of Somaliland was the first entity that created an atmosphere and an environment of trust, of knowing each other, and learning each other. That is between the two peoples of Ethiopia and Somaliland first and that of Somalis at large as well during the ten years the movement was there in Ethiopia. The trust grew and so the understanding. They appreciated each other. Engaged with each other and –live- and-let live.

 

Now you can see unsuspected unimpeded movement of people and trade across the borders of the two brotherly peoples.

 

That was an endeavor mainly made by the SNM as well as the successive governments of Somaliland.

 

Mr. Yussuf and like minds, cannot do that for Ethio-Somali relationship. He simply has neither the intuition nor the tendency of thinking right. Worse yet he can’t tell the truth, and that was why the government of Hailo Maryam put him in jail!

 

Mr. Mele bet the wrong horse here!

 

 

In his misguided adventure of bombing out troubled Somalia Mr. Zanawi is destroying a decade old trust between the two peoples and the coexistence that worked thanks to SNM and the successive governments of Somaliland and his own government and the one before his.

 

 

The prime Minister Made a mistake in three scores:

 

1) Lack of recognition of Somaliland. If he did Somaliland would have helped the mess in Somalia and help Ethiopia in that endeavor. More he keeps Somaliland on ‘stay the course’ more Somaliland feels alienated thus may move away and to words the extreme.

 

2) Putting all rotten eggs in one basket. That is betting the wrong horse. That is choosing nothingness from some thing. That is siding the homeless entity of Mr. Yussuf than those run most of Somalia, untamed, as they are, the UMI. But they could be tamed.

 

3) Evading a sovereign nation of Somalia no matter how troubled they are is wrong!

 

 

In Islam there were two Hijra during the life of the Prophet (pbuh). The first was to Ethiopia and the King of Ethiopia at the time welcomed the Muhajereen. Every Muslem must recognize and appreciate that. We Somali Landers do.

 

However there was a third Hijra to Ethiopia after the prophet, least known as it is, and that was when Somalilanders sought refuge from the all out, merciless bombardments of the Somalia government war planes against Somalilanders to extinction! During the ethnic cleansing there!

 

We don’t forget that and never shall we forget it. We appreciate what Ethiopia has done for us at the time. We are thankful for that.

 

 

However we don’t condone nor do we agree in any measure the evasion of Ethiopia against Somalia despite ..! We are not scurrilous rhymesters like warlord Abdillahi Yussuf.

 

 

UMI group made a tremendous mistake when they bragged that they will conquer Somaliland and further will cross the border and included that with the Somali inhabited Ethiopian eastern region. They ought to stop that none sense and worry about their own Somalia with out provoking others.

 

They did many good things the collection of follies in Baidabo failed to address let alone do some thing in Somalia. They brought peace and stability as well as integrity to the areas under their jurisdictions

 

They better immediately recognize Somaliland and seek mediation and understanding with Ethiopia. Somaliland has its land and people.

 

UMI has their land and people. They are in their country. They don’t have their offices in Kenya as the Mercenaries in Baidaba do! They have theirs in Mogadisho.

 

Abdillahi Yussuf and others have their belly and pokets! They don’t have neither people nor land to rule!

 

UMI must confess Ethiopia as well as Somaliland that they are responsible people and not reckless Mullas. Somaliland and Ethiopia must seriously listen them because their people are behind them. They don’t work in inertia and they are not working in vacuum as wrongly trusted Mr. yussuf and gang do. Therefore Ethiopia must stop attacking and start talking to them.

 

 

IC. There is a big question mark of the intentions and the intuition of the International community! IGAD intentions to word Somalia are a known quantity. It is an evil one! Each member country has a particular interest and never is partial thereof. But how about the rest? EU in particular?

 

How can the IC bestow an international recognition to a none- existent government? To a homeless group headed by a buffoon, a warlord! In retrospective Mr. yussuf upon his nomination as provisional president of Somalia came to Johar city after over a year in Kenya and this is what he said: “ Do you know my name” he asked the crowd came to see the conflict resolution president. “ President Abdullahi” they responded. “Not correct” he said. “ I am going to tell you my real name. I am the cursed one! [Habaar qabe]” he bragged, “ I am a man of war; I shot the first bullet in Somalia. I killed many people etc, etc.” ha laughed and laughed! How under any moral campus would the international community recognize such person as head of a recognized government?

 

How with conscience the international community ignores the overdue, the well deserved and well strived for recognition of Somaliland! Somaliland will be part of the solution and not part of the problem would it be recognized.

 

 

All in all isn’t possible to assume that the none existent but recognized entity is there as a license provider to Ethiopia to invade Somalia, or any one else that shows they have the license given by the ‘name only’ homeless government of nowhere but Baidawa, to do what they want to do!! To occupy Somalia under the pretext that the recognized government of Mr. yussuf invited them to do what they are doing! What else can you say!

 

 

“…Those who believe, work righteousness, engaged much in the remembrance of the lord—and defend themselves after they are unjustly attacked

 

 

…. And soon with the unjust know what vicissitudes their affairs will take--- these were the scurrilous rhymesters who were doomed to come to an evil end” Al ayah

 

 

However peace.

[Liibaan]

Faysal Cali Waraabe oo ku Hor Ooyey Wakiilka Itoobiya u Fadhiya Hargeysa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Warkii 06-Aug-2006 iyo Qormadii: Leyla Cabdiqadir

Gudoomiyaha xisbiga UCID ee maamulka Hargeysa, Faysal Cali Waraabe, ayaa maanta ku hor ooyey wakiilka Itoobiya u fadhiya Hargeysa meel fagaare ah, isagoo oohin darteed indhihi guduuteen dhuuntina xirantay. ....................

 

 

"Maanta Itoobiya aad iyo aad beynu gacmaha ugu furnay inagu, aad iyo aad beynu u soo dhaweynay, dakadi beynu u sameynay. Lakiin maheyno Itoobiya wax ay inooga gadisan tahay wadamadi kale," ayuu ku ooyayey ina Cali Waraabe oo ilintu dhabanadiisa qoysay.

 

"Baabuurteeni baa lagu gubay, 90 baabuur oonu leenahay baa lagu gubay Itoobiya," ayuu ku calaacalayey ina Cali Waraabe oo marba marka ka danbeysay dhuunta sii xirmeysay isciil kaambin darteed.

 

"Colaad badan oo Somaliyeed beynu ku qaadnay saaxiibnimada Itoobiya darteed...," ayuu ku ooyay ina Cali Waraabe oo indhihi guduutay marki danbana dhuunti xirantay isagoo aad isu ciil caambiyayey.

 

Fasal Cali Waraabe oo oohintiisu uu ku qoslay wakiilka Itoobiya u fadhiya Hargeysa, ayaa waxaa cad oohintiisu inay aheyd mid uu kaga raadinayey Itoobiya calool jileec, balse Itoobiya ayaa waxey u aragtaa oohintan mid ka soo yeertay Somali anan fahansaneyn siyaasada iyo taariikhda Geeska Afrika midna.

 

 

Waxa isaguna shirka ka hadalay Gudoomiyaha Xisbiga UCID Eng: Faysal Cali Warabe oo ka hadaly Arimaha wadamada aynu Jaarka nahay wuxuna Yidhi Md Faysal.

 

Gudoomiyaha Xisbiga UCID Eng, Fay Cali Waraabe waxa uu dhaliilay dawlada Ethiopia, waxaanu tilmaamay inay ina ictiraafto iska daayo ninkii inoogu nebcaa inoo caleemo sartay, isagoo arrintaa ka hadlayana waxa uu yidhi “ Ethiopia waxay ka nasatay colaada soomaaliya, maalintii ay ay SNM ka abuurantay Ethiopia, waxaanay ahayd markii u horeysay ee ay dawlada Ethiopia ee ay ciidamad Ethiopia intay ka tagaan xadka Somaliland, ee ay tagaan Ereteriya oo ay dhulkaas nabad u noqdaan.Maanta Somaliland way soo dhaweysay Ethiopia oo dekedii (Berbera) ayaa loo sameeyey, ilaa imika ma hayno waxay Ethiopia inooga duwan tahay wadamada Kale, waxa laynaga gubaxay 90 baabuur oo aynu leenahay, waxaana iyaga (Ethiopia) uga soo baxay baabuur tiro badan oo ay leeyihiin: nabadgelyada ayaan ku sameynaa†Ayuu yidhi faysal cali waraabe

 

Saaxiibtinimada Somaliland ee Ethiopia colaad badan oo soomaaliyeed ayeynu ku qaadnay “ Saaxiibtinimada Ethiopia waxaynu ku qaadnay colaad badan oo soomaaliyeed, Inay gacanta ina qabato oo ay Dawlada Ethiopia ina daadahayso iska daayo, ninkii inoogu nebcaa (C/laahi Yuusuf)ee laas-caanood qabsaday inoo caleemo saartay, waxaasina wax soconayaa maaha, Aniga (Faysal) iyo C/laahi Yuusuf in midkaayaba sariir lagu seexiyo aanay ahayn†Ayuu ka yidhi faysal doodii

 

 

Hadhwanaagnews

[Liibaan]

Riyaale "This is not the first time that I met Meles. We are always received warmly when we come to Ethiopia, because this is a brotherly country.

This time we shared issues that concern our area. Although we are not recognized by Ethiopia we share security, border and many other things.

 

So we talk about these and new developments in our area. We just correspond on that and we have good understanding when we come here¦

 

We always discuss about our destiny as one of our major issues… It's good.

 

We have no better friend than Ethiopia¦ They always treat us as brothers(Ethoipians) , as young brothers. They help us better than any other country in the area!!!

Ethiopians come to Berbera and send their goods through Berbera and bring their goods from Berbera. It is open for them!

 

we have captured a lot of people that tried to infiltrate Ethiopia. They are now in our custody. They are members of the ONLF, About thirty. They have been trained in Eritrea. Luckily we have captured them. And they are now in court; because we don't accept anyone to attack our neighbours¦

 

We were united in 1960 but we have with drawn from that union. We will not go back to the union.

This is their problem. They have to solve their problem, as we have solved our problem, We will call them(non-somalilanders).

We know each other. We will tell them the truth. They cannot cheat us (non-somalilanders) as they cheat the other people¦How can we help them? There are about 50 warlords. Everyone has his area. Who do we reconcile? To whom do we talk? We don't know¦We don't know. They are terrorists. They want to destabilize our country, because we are practicing the rule of law in our country. They want to make our country the same as those in Mogadishu.

 

They have been sent from Mogadishu, Al-Quaeda and all that, To certain extent, yes . We have captured the main organs operating in our country, While I was away from the country. Another four were captured while I was in the country¦ No, thank you for the interview.

 

I would like to thank the Ethiopian people, the Ethiopian government. That's what I want say. " Warlord Riyaale

 

 

Faysal Cali Warabe's [in] famous saying: a boy born in Hargeisa has more commonality with one born in Addis Ababa than one in Mogadishu.

 

"Inanka Xamar ku dhasha, Kan Addis Ababa ku dhasha ayaa iga xiga "

[N.O.R.F]

Not a fan of Riyaale's but when did he order Ethiopia into any Somali territory to kill Somalis/Muslims?

 

and that where the buck stops people,,,,

[Liibaan]

Making exuses for your warlord

 

Riyaale jailed hundreds of innocent Somali from western Somalia in Hergeysa and Northwest like Sheikh Muhammed, and shipped them to Addis Abbaba claiming that captured Terrorists

 

 

You don't see all those, because you are blind and full of hate

[N.O.R.F]

you are right i hate gaal raacs