Kismayo: alshabaab’s waterloo

[xiinfaniin]

^one uderstands where you coming from

 

praying for the continuation of somali tragedy under different conditions has been the only consistent prayer secessionist folks had for the last twenty odd years

[NGONGE]

^^ Wala xawola, xaaji! I fully approve of the SL dream but if price to save the lives of the foolish Somalis was to ditch the dream, I would happily do it. It's simply a political entity after all. I feel insulted that you would repeat the cantarbaqash of the feeble minded, saaxib.

 

(lakin, lets be serious here..you analogy was farfetched and with no hints of ever coming true).

[xiinfaniin]

^Rag rag dhalay

 

now next time i come to London (some parts of me visited the place) i shall sit down for a tea session with you

[Kamaavi]

Shabab meel aan gacanta lala gelin ayey lug la galeen dagaalkii magaalada inta loo dhaafay ayaa keynta magaalada korkeeda ah casharo wax ku ool ah loogu dhigayaa tolow ma gaari ayey isku qarxin si kale tabcada wey ku heli la'yihiine.The only thing which is left for them is to use suicide bombs just against the very men who have sheltered them.

 

Hogaamiyaha Ururka Xisbul Islam Sh. Xasan Daahir Aweys ayaa xalay kulan qarsoodi ah la qaatay saraakiil ka tirsan Ururka Al-shabaab, isagoo kala hadlay dagaalkii dhawaan labadooda dhinac ku dhexmaray Magaalada Kismaayo.

 

Dhanka Al-shabaab ayaa waxaa ka socday Sh. Mukhtar Roobow Cali [Abu-Mansor] iyo Sh. Axmed Cabdi Godane, kuwaasoo ka dalbaday Sh. Aweys inuu tanaasulo maamulka Kismaayo, isla markaana uu aqbalo maamul ay iyagu u magacaabeen.

 

Inkastoo saxaafada laga qariyay shirkaas hadana warar hoose laga soo xigtay saraakiil labada dhinac ka tirsan ayaa sheegaya in Sh. Aweys uu diiday inuu aqbalo soo jeedinta Al-shabaab, isla markaana uu ugu baaqay inay ka baxaan Kismaayo.

 

"Sh. Aweys wuxuu ku adkeystay in maamulka Kismaayo loo daayo Xisbul Islam, raaligelinta laga bixiyo dagaalkii halkaas ka dhacay oo lagu qaaday mas'uul ka tirsan ururkiisa" ayuu yiri sarkaal ka tirsan Xisbul Islam oo isqariyay.

 

Sh. Aweys ayaa la sheegay inuu ku wargaliyay madaxda Al Shabaab inay weerar ku qaadeen qabiilo si weyn uga qeybqaatay jihaadka iyadoo qabiiladaasi ay ay ka soo gurmadeen ilaa gudaha dalka Ethiopia.

 

Dhawaan ayaa ciidamada Al Shabaab waxaa lagu eedeeyey inay hubeeyeen kana barbar dagaalameen maleeshiyo beleedyo si ay ciidamada Xizbul Islam uga saaraan magaalada Kismayo.

 

Kulanka ayaa waxaa soo qabanqaabiyay Sh. Abu-Mansor iyadoo mas'uuliyiinta ay ku kala boodeen kulankaas, waxaana la sheegay in saraakiishii Al-shabaab ay codsadeen in mar kale kulan la isugu yimaado.

 

"Shirka waxaa soo qabanqaabiyay Gudoomiyaha Al-shabaab Sh. Axmed Godane iyo ku xigeeniisa Sh. Abu-Mansor, balse waa lagu guuldareystay ujeedadii laga lahaa oo ahayd in lagu dhameeyo khilaafka labada urur" ayuu yiri mas'uul Al-shabaab ah.

 

Ururadan oo isku bahaystay dagaal lagula jiro DF si xukunka looga tuuro ayaa ku dagaalamay gacan ku haynta magaalada dekeda leh ee Kismaayo, dagaalkaas oo dhaliyay khasaare u badnaa maleeshiyooyinkooda dagaalku dhexmaray.

 

Xisbul Islam ayaa ku habjabay in mowqif ka duwan midka nabadeed ee ay horay ugu baaqeen ay qaadan doonaan, hadii aan laga digtoonaan weerarada lagu hayo maleeshiyooyinkooda iyo saraakiishooda, isla markaana aan la joojin dacaayadaha.

[RedSea]

After more than three years the formidable war machine of Ethiopia, American planes, crazy suufis and warlord pretending to be religious they have been proven to be unbreakable. The American secret missions have failed, the Ethiopian army have simply cut and ran, and the warlords have been taught a lesson that they will not forget and are in hiding today. This group is not your usual four runner rag tag militia. They are men with principles and on a mission. Look out.

 

 

And there is bit Western bias in your history as well. Wellington finished off an already derailed Napoleon army at Waterloo. The battles that took place three years prior to Waterloo in 1812 in Russia had put a stop to Napoleon army's dominance in Europe.

[rudy-Diiriye]

true that!

[xiinfaniin]

the split of HI as predicted has begun

[Gabbal]

Xiin, it may well be a waterloo, and I would argue for both Xisbul Islam and the Shabaab's combined armed Islamist movement, but if I were to ask you, who are the Prussians and the allies in this case?

 

As you said, and I find myself in agreement with, the Gedo boys are not for rent and particularly by Sheikh Sharif or his men. Ironically enough it is my belief they could have worked something out with Abdullahi Yusuf but Shiekh Sharif or his men are out of the question. First impression was everything and the relationship between them has already been concluded as is apparent to anyone who observes this group.

 

My point is they aren't Shiekh Sharif's Prussians and essentially even if Shabaab was severly weakened and Kismaayo was as defenseless and ripe for the taking as possible, what arm of the TFG institution as it exist is capable of filling the void against clannish interests from clans who would be in a stronger position by the collapse of Islamist rule?

[Gabbal]

Oodweyne-

 

That group is not Al Shabaab in the way you suggest. Even so, one can say they do not feel threatened by the non-clannish agenda of the Shabaab which means they are not opposed to them. I do not think anyone can entice you to act when you do not feel threatened and most reer Gedo do not have an incentive to either fight the Shabaab or support the Sharif government.

[xiinfaniin]

Gabal, you do know more than I do that reer Gedo are not politically homogeneous. So ruling out their allegiance for Sharif when Sharif’s military chief is a Gedo son is at best premature. Since the base is not secure however I agree this time it’s unlikely Gedo will play active role from the clannish sense in this new conflict. But as soon as alshabaab’s military power is weakened, and their forces withdraw from Gedo as they will, Gedo’s Diaspora organizations will have a breathing room to organize for that region in a manner that’s independent of alshabaab’s or HI’s influence. Both groups mind you have strong presence in Gedo region.

 

As who will play the Prussians role, I think TFG and HI in Jubbooyinka are fated to form alliance against alshabaab. It’s becoming increasingly possible for such a link to be established. The political maneuverings has already started in Nairobi, and even if alshabaab defeat HI in the current skirmishes in the bushes of Kismayo, in the end it will be almost impossible for them to hold Kismayo under the current conditions.

[Gabbal]

HI in Jubooyinka doesn't exist awoowe. It is a tribal outfit masquerading in Islamic garb. Any sign of TFG and that tribal outfit pandering to each other will throw even the most secular Gedo son to fully endorse and participate in Shabaab's campaign against them. They will move from a largely neutral and non-active role, as you say, into a full participant. Gedo son or no son, difference in politics or not, Islamist or secular, Gedo boys are united on Kismaayo in terms of clannish matters against other clannish objectives. Both the Defense and police heads of Abdullahi Yusuf were Gedo boys, with Barre Hiiraale sitting next to him in Baydhabo, when Koojaar, Afgaduud, and their boys were chased out in broad daylight.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Belo

 

xaggee ila aaday. If that is real sentiment,it may be too late by then so participate it now awoowe.

 

tell Gedo folks you shall all become alshabaab to defend your clannish interest

[Gabbal]

They will not become, but they will watch their interests and their interest lies in the defeat of the tribal outfit in Islamic garb. That's more of a threat to them then the Shabab and you know it.

[xiinfaniin]

^^But isn't prudent for them to shape the conflict if they are serious in the outcome then to merely hope the outcome will favor them?

 

btw I dont blve the case with gedo is what you have described

[Gabbal]

You know the answer better than I. The longer the battle drags on and mutual weakening on both sides occurs, the better the outcome favors them. You are forgetting they lost clannish control of Kismaayo only as a result of an alliance between these current foes.