Kismayo: alshabaab’s waterloo

[xiinfaniin]

There are many student of history on this site so I shall not narrate the historicity of the battle of Waterloo, nor shall I repeat the grounds for Duke of Willington’s initiative to position his army as he did or Napoleon’s rationale behind taking the risk he took to drive the British army out to the sea and knock the Prussians out of the war.

 

But I see parallel between alshabaab’s desperate wars against other Islamist components in and around Kismayo to the infamous defeat that was exacted on Napoleon troops.

 

As the preparatory effort of all out war against alshabaab continuous in Xamar, with Xizbul Islam effectively taking over Beledweyne, and Baydhabo being what it is strategically untenable if seriously attacked, Kismayo in theory is the only prize alshabaab can seriously contend to snatch, and reasonably defend. The region has been a known strong hold for their military basis and hide outs, and has the type of topography that could sustain a long drawn out guerilla war. Sensing some degree of seriousness from other Islamist components in Kismayo in terms of establishing a more unified administration, alshabaab started a war of choice to eliminate their opponents.

 

But their opponents are becoming stronger, and the war is taking other dimensions, which were initially not foreseen by alshaab. Xasan Aweys may be sheepish in all of this, but others are putting a serious and fierce fight to tackle alshabaab’s madness. What begun as a mere squabble about how to equitably divide the revenue from the Kismayo port, may indeed become the turning point of the religious wars in the south.

As I said many times before despite the novelty of alshabaab fighters, they will be killed as they killed, and this war will at minimum put many of them out of action, it will trap some, and detain them preventing spilling other Muslims blood in the name of religion. For those of them who are in the knowing this conflict may give them some pointers regarding the apparent deficit of wisdom and lack of sustainable strategy, others will see this absurdity for what it is, and may abandon the project. The utterances of Ina Yacqub could no longer be accepted credibly, his voice does not resonate. If he was the deliver of victory news from battlefronts before, he is now akin a man who breaches loft ideals while he reeks of hypocrisy.

 

It’s already a waterloo politically and theologically, and it may as well be so militarily.

[Che -Guevara]

If history is anything to go by, there's never been any defining moment in the Somali conflict, and it's unlikely there would be one, but even we entertain the idea of Al-Shabaab's demise, I will be hard pressed to believe the "enemy" would sieze on that opportunity, new alliances would be formed and as they like to say, and the beat goes on.

[Mr. Somalia]

But I see parallel between alshabaab’s desperate wars against other Islamist components in and around Kismayo to the infamous defeat that was exacted on Napoleon troops.

^^^

Wishful thinking...!

 

Only a strong TFG with a determined leadership can deal the Al Shabab deviants the sort of Waterloo blow you speak of. But unfortunately, the hapless Sharif is very incompetent and we can only pray for a better leader to rise to the top.

[Johnny B]

^It sure will.

The cat is already out of the Box.

[Fiqikhayre]

Xiinfaniin nailed it on the head. If only they knew would we know the two above would not speak with such conviction.

[UZTAAD]

bal taarikhdu waxay suubiso iyo saadanbe aan dhowrno.

Jamac kadiye ayaa yiri bilowgii sagaashameeyadii

[General Duke]

In my youth I did frequent that station on many an occasion. But that was a different life.

 

As for the comparison, rubbish I say, one never heard the Duke of Wellington or his alliance begging Napoleon before the battle, in fact they quickly declared war on him as soon as he regained his throne. It was the short Emperor who wanted a truce, a respite to get his strength back.

 

Thus there is no comparison here, Al Shabaab will weaken, so will Hizbul ******, but it wont be Sharif who will reap the rewards, my guess is new figures will emerge soon insha Allah.

[Hassan6734]

Al-shabaabs days of terror is almost over.

 

Its funny how they attack Hassan turki iyo Sheikh Ahmed Madoobe and hve even resorted to calling them gaalo.

 

Since when did al-shabaab become the authority of whos Muslim and whos not?

[Peacenow]

Originally posted by Hassan6734:

Al-shabaabs days of terror is almost over.

 

Its funny how they attack Hassan turki iyo Sheikh Ahmed Madoobe and hve even resorted to calling them gaalo.

 

Since when did al-shabaab become the authority of whos Muslim and whos not?

Exactly. Couldn't have better said it myself.

Who are they to decide who is Muslim or not and then serve justice of life and death on them.

[Fiqikhayre]

The wars in the last couple of days have shown that Xisbul Islaam is a force to reckon with in jubboyinka. Many Al-Shabab youth and commanders have been killed and the fighting has been the most ferocious seen thus far, on both sides the death toll is high but who is the defeated and who is the winner. Even if Alshabab manage to somehow subdue Xisbul Islaam in jubboyinka it is a moral win for Xisbul Islam rather than Al-shabab as they won't go away. Kismanyo was Al-shababs only secure base without that they are lost and this is the beginning of the end for them.

 

I fancied the youth in Kismaanyo, they did a great job in pacifying the city and nearby environs but their downfall is their allegiance to foreign lead projects and agendas by questionable organizations based in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 

Whereas Somalia has been a country in war for over two decades now it is not befitting for such a nation to be the base for a global project&agenda like the one the organisation envisioned which needs a true society and not a burnt out nation and people like that of Somalia.

 

The global agenda cannot work in Somalia. Now the Youth want to tell us that their leaders and scholars are the better ones. Why should I believe that a foreign jihadist somewhere else on the globe is more qualified on the matters of Somlia than a local Sheikh who knows and understand the happenings in Somlia.

 

The americans want cross border men, they are looking for those they are not interested in Hassan Dahir Aweys and Hassan Caballa Hersi as this are internal issues for the somalis to deal with, the US cannot attack those individuals on the basis that they are 'terrorists' but they can attack those that they perceived have bombed their interests and than ran away to Somalia to hide in it.

 

The two individual Somalis mentioned are men that have an affection with Somalia and Somalis and they were part of those segments although not doubtingly Hassan Cabdalla Hirsi is a extremist in the pure sense of the word and has been the earliest forms of what is today Al-shabab but nevertheless this has become global now and others have the power over the youth and not them, although they or he was the forefather of all those revolutions.

 

And this extremism and dependence of foreign leaders not in Somalia will ultemily bring down the Shabab.

 

Thus I have a plan for any coming President in the future. The Youth should be incorporated into the law enforcing agencies in the future republic of Somalia. I mean they have build an enormous and efficient security apparatus. I would definatley take the elite of those and build the core of the police force with them and sack all those moryaans currently employed. I would employ and incorporate former Al-Shabab para militaries and secret service agents into the police force modern.

 

But I would not incorporate them into the military most definitely. They Youth should be amnestied the core and professional amongst them and incorporated into the police force and other law enforcing agencies.

 

Long Live united Somali Republic (federal) inshallaah.

[xiinfaniin]

the wise ones are planning for a more cohesive Somalia after alshabaab’s exit. they are not hopping for the anarchy to continue under different conditions as can be detected in the sentiments some nomads expressed here. as whether the Waterloo comparison is valid, time will tell. but the point should not be lost simply because one is bitter about what has been, the anology is rather about the mistakes made by the french general that hurried his defeat and the apparent strategic blunders alshabaab are embarking on today. indeed there are paralels. if nothing else one should appreciate the certainty with which Napoleon arose with as far as the wining the battle is concern for he breakfasted in leisure while his opposing general remained awake in the better part of that night writing war dispatches and at one point stating his intent to retreat to Brussels if Prussians could not provide the cavalry the battle required. that Napoleon confidence is not that different from alshabaab’s flagrant military campaigns to finish off the other side despite the consequence that could pose for them. Canole and Kambooni troops are in the bushes, planning for a campaign to frustrate alshabaab’s rule if not driving them out from the city in a fashion that is akin to the humble beginnings that brought these alshabaab fighters to the current vanity.

 

And i am not even mentioning the eternal rupture this will cause to the Keligii Muslim movement

[xiinfaniin]

Oodweynow, yours would have been a good comeback for a previous retort of mine had it been posted in the appropriate thread .

 

alshabaabs hasty war against their ideological brethren and the consequence it holds for them is the topic at hand. there are factors if combined that could easily finish alshabaab phenomenon off. But it’s also likely even in the absence of such convergence of political factors that alshabaab’s ascendance could be seriously halted. As I have noted this war has already sucked whatever little oxygen alshabaab’s theological argumentation had out, and as a result they are no longer occupying the righteous summit as it were. Politically they have met their waterloo, as it’s the locals they are fighting, not an Ethiopia regiment or AMISOM troops.

 

keep in mind, HI will most likely split and the tfg will have opening to ally itself with the one fighting with alshabaab. The gedo boys are not for the rent, and are struggling as most somalis are in the south.

[Che -Guevara]

Politics makes strange bedfellows

[xiinfaniin]

I appreciate your reasoning but my argument banks on the sheer fact alshabaab opened another front, and a more serous one at that…Gedo boys breaking heavily toward HI will definitely help but it’s unlikely.

[NGONGE]

Somalia has had many warlords and warring factions as SOL has had a Xiin analogy.

 

The only solid prediction anyone can make is that a new grouping shall emerge and the clan war shall continue under a different guise. Have we done communisim yet? It used to be big in South America you know.