Demonstrations against peacekeeping force

[miles-militis]

Could someone explain to me as to why we should oppose foreign troops intervention? What is it that they (troops) could do that had not been done on to Somalia and Somalis?

 

Would the idea appeal to the opposing camps, should Ethiopian troops had been excluded?

 

If still no, what is the solution? And please, for the Almighty sake, let us not fall on to the good old “we can do it ourselves†line? Then what?

 

Now, let us be careful in lumping the whole of Somalia in one wad - fact remains it is only segments of Mogadishu's residents predominantly followers of the pseudo wadads of Somalia that opposes not only foreign troops, but a government in itself – perhaps a quarter of Mogadishu's residents, if not less. That being the case, their voice must be heard as stakeholders, and should not be suppressed, whilst at the same time not overestimating their influence; therefore the government (the PM) must come up with a plan to accommodate their concerns and grievances, legitimate or otherwise.

 

If one looks at Somalia's map, only handful regions are in opposition. For instance, only Banadir and its environs incl. parts of Lower Shabele are on the outside as things stand at the moment, with the rest of the country already aboard. And here is where PM Gedi should be concentrating his efforts – reaching out to the wadads and their followers.

 

LB - Somalis have failed now and then to sort their problems out amongst themselves; now it is for others to sort things out for them. And whilst I dislike foreign troops on Somali soil, I see no alternative, hence my support for their involvement as a neutral force in facilitating (critical) the disarmament of armed militias throughout Somalia.

 

On the issues of relocation, I trust is not only a viable option, but the most pragmatic one; yet before such a decision has been presented to the Parliament for sanctioning, the PM (Geddi) with his executive powers must explain his policies and strategies for relocation to the general public – so far that had not happened, and here lies some of his trouble. The public are looking to and for answers, and unfortunately none are forthcoming where our Premier is concerned.

 

Jamatatu – inaAdeer I understand you oppose foreign troops, but let's reason though, shall we? What do we do then?

[Gediid]

Sam

Lets not become over enthusitastic over foreign troops.You never know what they bring.As someone with no stake in this issue I I think that idea sucks.If we go by your estimate and conclude that its only a handful of the people that oppose foreign troops then I would ask you to look no further than 1993 when the US government tried something similar.What happened we all know granted though the US had both the firepower and the finances to slug it out yet they chose to leave.Back then many were saying it was only a subclan who were involved.If we make the same assessment and say its only the wadaads this time round then its for certain that this is doomed from the word get go.

On the issue of relocation I personally think that is where Abdullahi is heading.The whole issue of foreign troops is just a smoke screen to divert attention from his real motive of moving the capitol to somewhere else more friendly to his rule.I could be proven wrong here but all arrows point to that direction.....

[Sky]

gediid you do have a stake in this issue, no need to front saaxib. as a seccesionist its bad news coming your away if the perceived enemy of the northwestern seccesionists, c/yussef will receive full recognition as de facto president of all of the united states of somalia from the us and thereby the whole international community when/if the man secures muqdisho and makes it his seat. game is practically over for seccesionists in the northwest.

on the issue of relocation, what? can you blame the man for feeling the need to make baydhabo the interim capital when you see all those military officers and foreigners being killed like flies in muqdisho, all these killings are a provocation to c/yussef. let alone himself. villa somalia would have to be guarded like crazy if he goes before securing muqdisho with reliable troops and not the ragtag ciyaal suuq that roam in muqdisho now. behold saaxib, the keyword here is interim, muqdishos status as the undisputed capital city of somalia is not under siege unlike you want us to believe. the issue is to secure muqdisho first, till then c/yussef stays in baydhabo -isnt it also a somali city that deserves to host its president-

to end my story, if youre smart youll know that if c/yussef gets killed, the whole tfg is killed with him and thereby the hope for somalia to go back to normalcy. thats why all somali patriots shouldnt rush and act like kids, we waited one- and a half decade for this opportunity, so we can certainly wait another few months.

 

And if Col. Yey thinks that with foreign troops he can triumph, he is wrong. America with its state of the art weapons and more than 100,000 thousand troops couldn't dare to take Falujah from an ilequiped melitiamen. I think the foreign troops will only add one more deadly dimension and will seriously complicate the matter.

 

What Col. Yey needs to do is to appraoch the problem in traditional Somali way, "SHIR - GEED HOOSTII" and follow the painstaking process of solving one problem at a time. But that is highly unlikely since he is a man who had got used to solving things with the barrel of the gun. Well, if that is the case, then as they say: geelow daaq, daaq oo markaad ciin daaqdo ayaa laguu yaaba...

sacadadiin, who says anything about triumph. didnt muqdisho say they would welcome him a green carpet and wet flags, than why the hell do you have in your mind these foreign troops are meant for offensive, if that was the case i would be the first to oppose. even a senile dog knows no one can trust the muqdisho faction leaders, so they shouldnt be surprised if c/yussef wants to bring troops with him anyway. i mean people forget the city is not owned b the faction leaders, its owned by the people and they are under the tfg. so this fallujah affair you predict wont happen, unless reer muqdisho betrays everyone for all to see and goes full frontal with c/yussef from the get go. but i do acknowledge the possibilty that a fallujah affair could happen in our capital.

 

those shirs maybe worked for the north in somaliland and puntland, and they could also work in for example bay, bakool, hiiraan etc but they wont work for areas held hostage by invaders from alien clans. taas iska iloow saaxib, c/yussef aint no fool. when i was in gaalkacyo this past summer, i was taught that in somali society you wont get anything done if you play nice. i think c/yussef made a virtue of one of his flaws, being a mean a.ss mothaphucka.....

[miles-militis]

Gediid - I agree one never knows what will come of the foreign troops (FT) upon arrival, and one must be very cautious as to their involvement. But here, let us develop the rationale against FTs: for what reasons(s) do we oppose? and what are the alternatives?

 

By the way, the issue concerning FTs is for the Parliament to debate and decide upon its course; however, the decision for relocation was for the Ministers and has already been reached.

[Gediid]

Sky

I know you wont believe this but I heard your argument before, well honestly 14 times before to be specific so thats why I say lets not get over ourselves here.One issue at a time.I think a wise reer Xamar said it well when he/she said canjeero sidey u kala.... the rest I'm sure you know.The issue is foreign troops and if you wish to stretch it a bit relocation of the capitol...... Try to to stick to that sky.

 

Sam

I missed the decision on the relocation,could you please update that for me.

 

 

PS

I'm in the mood today for some intellectual debate,lets please make sure that it stays that way instead of the usual snide remarks we have become accustommed to lately....

[miles-militis]

Gediid - I thought you knew that a couple of weeks ago (first week of Feb., if not mistaken), the Council of Ministers chaired by the PM debated the issue of temporarily relocating the seat of government, and operating from a city other than Mogadishu, and on the same day voted for Baydhabo. Minister Ato suggested 120 days for Baydhabo with the rest, 47 I think the number was, agreeing to his suggestions. I'll see if I could lay my hands on the news bulletin.

 

Correction ... it was the FTs the Council of Ministers had sanctioned, and NOT the relocation which I trust is still pending ... a decision for the Council of Ministers NOT requiring Parliament's approval.

[Gediid]

That totally eluded me Sam.Thx for the update....

[miles-militis]

Gediid ... Correction ... it was the FTs the Council of Ministers had sanctioned, and NOT the relocation which I trust is still pending ... a decision for the Council of Ministers NOT requiring Parliament's approval.

 

They debated the issue, but did not reach a decision to that effect.

[Gediid]

Sam

I suppose my theory still stands then.FT's issue is a smoke screen to relocate the capitol city..... I think after the foreign observer team thats supposed to assess the situation in Xamar leave we might see a change in tactics.Something on the lines of Xamar cant be tamed and we need a capitol to operate out of.I'm sure Abdillahi knows his continuing legitimacy/support among the international community depends on his ability to relocate to any place within Somalia as soon as possible.

Anybody with a different opinion plz share that with us.

[Baashi]

SW,

First two assumptions:

1. Warlords have significant firepower and they have the resources and ability to mobilize their clan militia.

2. “Maxkamadahaâ€, another viable force in Mogadishu, have the ear of many loyal folks in Mogadishu.

 

The objective of the FT mission is:

1. To disarm the “willing†warlords (now government ministers) who pledged to give up their own weapons.

2. To secure government installations from the occupiers for the government.

 

The problem:

1. The warlords have changed their mind and they are not willing to hand over their weapons.

2. “Maxkamadaha†vowed to wage war against not only FT but even the government.

 

Now, the goal of going to Mogadishu is to have a functioning government operating the most troublesome city of the country as the leading indicator that the reconciliation has indeed taken root in the country. That’s the expectation of any successful peace conference and thus the rational behind the insistence of government going back to its historical seat and be functional one to prove Somalia have moved on from perpetual civil war to post-conflict government.

 

The goal is not to be simply on the ground with the FT protecting you from your own subjects (be it freelance thugs or organized clan militia). The goal is to go there with the cooperation of the warlords who are part and the parcel of the government. The government was supposed to take up political problems with monumental proportions from militia rehabilitation, property reclamation to preparing the country for referendum for the permanent constitution (federalism is on the referendum as well).

 

With FT present on Somali soil and warlords not on board, war is imminent. With Mogadishu up in flames, governance is impossible. War between the members of the government means civil war. That means we are back to square one. The government will lose its legitimacy. It is that simple saaxiib.

 

I say change the whole equation. Start with the international observers including Arabs and secure financial and material help for the government in Baidowa. I think Inna Yussuf have a viable case to make if he goes down the relocation route. Scrap the FT altogether and take away warlords argument.

[Sophist]

As my fellow cham had asked, Why appose FTs?

[Sky]

With FT present on Somali soil and warlords not on board, war is imminent. With Mogadishu up in flames, governance is impossible. War between the members of the government means civil war. That means we are back to square one. The government will lose its legitimacy. It is that simple saaxiib.

walaahi arin muhiim ah baad taabsiisay. that risk is a great possibility and even imminent if shit hits the fan. i didnt thought about that. i guess politics never goes without pitfalls, so this is definetily one for the tfg to ponder on.

 

I say change the whole equation. Start with the international observers including Arabs and secure financial and material help for the government in Baidowa. I think Inna Yussuf have a viable case to make if he goes down the relocation route. Scrap the FT altogether and take away warlords argument.

do you know that if the government sits in baydhabo that they wont get anything near the material and financial support of anyone as when they are situated in muqdisho. thats the problem. white house and downing street letteraly said, we will only fully recognize c/yussefs government when it is in its capital muqdisho. so c/yussef needs to balance hastiness to go to muqdisho with carefulness not to get killed. but to make matters short, the tfg will get the 'prizemoney' when it sits in muqdisho and not in baydhabo. and i fully understand it, if i was an outsider i wouldnt trust a government that cant go to its own capital either.

[miles-militis]

Baashi – brilliant my dear fellow – now let us peel the assumptions each in turn ... hang on though .... allow me to chew on the assumptions and collect my thoughts over dinner.

 

In the meantime, let me throw a wrench in the mix, so to speak. Let us assume Geedi and inaYusuf listen to the masses in Mogadishu and come to their senses, and scrap FTs altogether. And with political leaders (warlords) and Islamic Courts (lawlords) armed, how do you then disarm the nation?

 

Gediid – I do not think relocation to Baydhabo or to any other city (with the exception of Hargeysa) is as difficult as it appears with the likes of Ato et al proposing 120 days .... and when (next few days) it comes to pass, the Council of Ministers shall sanction it with a majority vote.

[Coloow]

Whatever happened to the spirit of reconciliation? some would ask: was the Nairobi debacle about retaliation? Why the farce about peacekeepers when there is no peace to keep? Is this some kind of invasion? Whatever happened to the members of SOL who were hailing the "peace process"? Why are they turning to stooges of the government? What would FT troops accomplish? Could their presence lead somalia into yet another nasty war? is the FT issue turning into a tribal/regional discourse instead of a genuine process? why the sudden negative portrayal of mogadishu as a place to be tamed by FT? Why are other alternatives like relocation not explored? Is there a "warlord" in Somalia who has said NO to disarmament? Suppose, so called peacekeepers arrive in mogadishu and a nasty warlords uses it to his advantage-and hell breaks, who would be the victims? Somali women, children men etc.

 

Is history repeating itself given 1991/1992 when an american led force invaded somalia in good faith- but was forced out by somalis?

 

As the old saying goes "Taladaan la ruugin waa lagu rafaada".

 

Some questions to be pondered before we applaud moves that could endangour the fragile reconciliation process. A move that is likely to turn the clock back to the days of the civil war.

[Waaq]

I think it is time that all Somalis realize that nobody in this world gives a damn whether or not this war is ended. This is our last chance to receive even minimal assistance from the international community to put Somalia back on a positive path.

 

The warlords within and outside the government will never disarm unless they feel assured of some piece of the pie, peferably similar in size to the current one. Nevertheless, it is unlikely these foreign forces will serve as an offensive force, so power is unlikely to move the matter forward. But, a perceived neutral power is necessary to hold accountable any agreements that have been reached.

 

I don't think relocation is an option, not because it is not desirable, but it is politically unfeasible.