Honorable Exit

[NASSIR]

Me, Can Somalia stand on its feet if the 4.5 is banned and AU withdraw?

 

We have seen the largest displacement and biggest humanitarian crisis. It's impossible to keep the TFG part II run on this rickety course.

A new reconciliation effort must start and the al-shabaab leaders must be invited and their conditions met, that is eliminating the 4.5 clan formula and having the Ugandans agree to phased withdrawal.

 

The bulk of the financial assistance that was given to Somalia for security, state building and reconstruction went to AU's operational budget. They are not peace-keepers but special forces trained by AFRICOM to contain Somalia's insurgency.

 

In the end, what matters is the preservation of innocent lives.

[Jacaylbaro]

Chaos theory ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[Belial]

Its already chaos.

[me]

Oodweyne,

 

My argument is simple. Our nation is at crossroads. We are in a critical phase.

 

The actions that Sharif Ahmed takes at this moment can either prolong or shorten this war.

 

The Somali people have been maneuvered into the undesirable situation where a choice have to be made. Before the choice was between Sharif's TFG and the Xiz Islam / Shabab coalition.

 

Many valid arguments could have been made by both sides, the Xiin's and Kashafa's of Somalia both brought sensible arguments that were worth examining.

 

But the situation on the ground has changed. Different variables have entered the equation.

 

The choice is no longer between Sharif's TFG and the Xiz Islam / Shabab coalition.

 

The choice is between living under a Somali government by the Xiz Islam / Shabab coalition. or to live under occupation by our neighboring countries.

 

We now face the nightmare scenario of:

 

1. Long term occupation and division of Somalia by both Ethiopia and Kenya.

2. Long and brutal civil war.

 

Let us not entertain the foolish idea that Sharif's TFG will have any relevance once Ethiopia and Kenya invade Somalia. They will then directly control him and his paper administration and dictate the course of action.

 

Sharif's TFG will not benefit from any invasion by Ethiopia and Kenya.

 

Sharif’s TFG will be the first casualty of any invasion.

[Jacaylbaro]

Don't mind Mr. Me, he is advocating for a chaos theory and don't want any peace in the Somali peninsula.

 

He is always on the side of the opposition and those armed groups.

 

 

Markaa, he is just sitting in one of those western countries and watching the fighting on the net. I wonder if he is Somali at all.

[Belial]

I think ME is one of the few who makes senses here on SOL. The other is Nassir.

 

You my friend should not be talking about Somalinimo...

[RedSea]

We hear time and again that somali people in the south would rather prefer anarchy over a government. I think that is entirely not true. If the people get an honest entity that says what it does and does what it says then I think dadka way u hogaansanaan lahayeen. It's not so much that s. somalis have rejected and destroyed every transitional govt in the past, there just hasn't been any new leadership with fresh ideas. They just keep recycling over and over the very same people who started the destruction. The latest one is led by a man with clean slate as far as we know of, but his entire goverment structure and the way it opts to operate is just carbon copy of the past failed transitional govt.

 

A movement like that of icu in 2006 is needed. People are Muslim, they want muslim govt. If they cant get that, they want at least honest leadership that harbors their needs in mind. Not tribally motivated warlord or immature politician who seeks fame.

[me]

Many valid objections have been raised and they are worth a reply.

 

==================== ==================== ====================

 

First of all let us understand that the conflict in Somalia is complex. There are many wars going on at the same time.

 

If we take a closer look we will see that there are the following wars going on.

 

1. The Somali civil war that has pitted clans and other political actors against each other. Let’s call this the Clan war.

 

2. The regional war between those fighting for the Somali national interest and regional forces that are fighting for their own national interest. Let’s call this one the Regional war.

 

3. There is the global war that has pitted the Radical Islamists of this world and the powers that be. Let’s call this one the Global war.

 

4. There are also economic interests involved, whether they are local, regional or global. From local business people trying to monopolize certain economic assets to energy resource firms looking for hot deals. Let’s call this one the Business war.

 

The situation is too complex for most of us to understand and grasp what is actually happening at any given moment. It is also fluid and the actors keep repositioning themselves. Alliances are temporary and ideologies are almost non-existent. Even the Islamist ideology in Somalia can be called superficial. The ‘policies’ they implement in the regions under their control betray their lack of vision.

 

This situation due to its many variables has forced many people to be a bit schizophrenic when it comes to supporting political factions. If we look at Hannibal up there, in the Clan war he supports Somaliland, in the Regional war he supports the Somali interest and in the Global war who knows. The contradiction is obvious to most of us (Somaliland is an Ethiopian proxy) yet this seemingly intelligent young man chooses to ignore this fact. I wonder how many people rhyme their conflicting interests or rather ignore them.

 

We can understand his situation; the whole Somali nation is in that same position. His identity as a man from a certain clan, born into the Somali nation, who is of the Muslim faith and from a certain socio-economic background forces him to make rather strange choices.

 

The lack of consistency and flip flopping back and forth is the reason why the war in Somalia has lasted so long.

 

The reason why the Shabab / Xiz Islam seem to be winning at the moment is because they are using time tested methods of warfare and more importantly they have found a way to rhyme the conflict of identity that is to be found within every Somali.

 

For example the supporters of Somaliland have focused only on one war of the first three wars I have mentioned above, namely the Clan war. They have played this war rather well; the existence of the secessionist administration after 18 years proves this point. However they have lost the Regional war by becoming an Ethiopian vassal. We can say the same for the Puntlanders, they have played the Clan war well only because they too have accepted the status of an Ethiopian vassal. These two administrations have overcome the first obstacle only to be defeated on the second obstacle, thus becoming disqualified in the long run.

 

Shabab / Xiz Islam have linked the first three wars. They choose not to part take in the Clan war and decided to transcend it. In the Regional war they maneuvered themselves into the position of being the sole champion of the Somali National interest. They have also been foolishly drawn to part take in the Global war.

 

Those who wish to counter Xiz Islam and Shabab need to learn how to walk the tight rope that is Somali politics and need to offer a coherent and a consistent vision to get Somalia out of its current predicament while transcending clan and without ignoring Somalia’s national interest and rights as a sovereign nation.

 

Sharif Ahmed has proven that he does not understand the dynamics of the Somali conflict and the way to reconcile the conflicting identities that are present in most Somalis today.

 

This is why he should resign instead of also capitulating and making the Somali government an Ethiopian puppet.

[NASSIR]

Me, you avoided answering my question.

But here is my prediction.

 

 

Possible invasion of Somalia which would bring in both benefits and drawbacks.

 

Probable strategy for the new invasion.

 

* Kenya will be given an international mandate to invade Somalia, its troops coming from Liboi, the Bajuni Islands and Mandera. The aim is to reach the strategic port town of Kismayo and immediately place a puppet pro-tfg administration.

 

* Ethiopian troops will also enter from Beletwein and Gedo regions and crush immediately the Shabab forces. The goal is to reach Mogadisho and embark on a clean-up measures in conjunction with the TFG part II. The local clans of the President will be involved in the urban warfare that ensues and lend their complete support.

 

* D-jibouti might send troops

 

US Intelligence, air strikes, and logistics support.

 

*Somaliland and Puntland will have specific roles assigned, that is to commit joint troops in support of Sheikh Sharrif's administration in exchange for legal and greater autonomy and assisstance in the fight against Piracy--which is chief reason the west has its interest on the restoration of the Somali Republic..

 

The Benefits:

 

Once the Shabab forces disintegrate, the powers that be in Mogadishu will try to put down the theological fervor that feeds Shabaab's insurgency by winning over the patriotic Youth through Rehabilitation and Incentives, thus the return law and order that will smooth the way for permenant government.

 

The Preservation of Somali Cultural Identity. For instance, revolutionary Arabic programs that now instruct, finance and organize extremism will be met with the revival of literacy campaigns and cultural programs that remind the young of their heritage: individualism, altruism, religious tolerance, traditional poetry, Somalinimo, family and egalitarian values.

 

Drawbacks:

 

* Prolonged occupation of Somalia

* The Partition of Somalia into a mutually hostile, clan-based states.

* The exploitation of Somalia's marine and land resources.

The return of illegal fishing

* The federal government will renounce any territorial claim to Somali-galbeed and NFD.

[ANWAR]

Sharif must fight back!!!!!!!!!!!!

FU'''''''' AL-SABABA AND THERE' JINN LEADERS :mad: :mad:

[Somali Pirate]

shiekh sharif is finished. he should do the decent thing and resign before he's forced to resign.

 

 

if only he listedn to opposition demands back in february.

 

he can still survive if he still accepts the demands of al muqawama

[LayZie G.]

Hence, the less we hear from your lips about Al-Shabaab trying to recreate some kind of "Somali Nationalist State" (on their own myopic and crooked way, no less), and, therefore saying on their behalf that their action is in one piece with that sort of a long term objective of that kind, the more others may be incline to detain themselves at your behest; so that they could ascertained what really you are saying that is worthwhile of their time, indeed.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr, Brrrrrrrrr, Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Somali Pirate]

game over mr sharif. either accept the demands of the opposition or watch yourself get humiliated like your predeccessor.

 

good analysis by the way ME