Castles In The Clouds: Ethiopia’s Mythical Peace Process In Oga'den

[The Zack]

Castles In The Clouds: Ethiopia’s Mythical Peace Process In Oga'den

 

 

On April 9th 2010, Reuters reported “An Islamist rebel group which had threatened to attack oil and gas firms exploring a potentially mineral-rich region of Ethiopia has surrendered..“. The report went on to quote Ethiopian regime spokesman Bereket Simon as saying "After discussing with the government, the leaders of the organisation in totality have accepted to abide by the constitution of Ethiopia and desist from any armed practice,”… “The rebels would now disarm and form a political party” . With that began an well planned perception management strategy aimed at three audiences. The first being multinational oil corporations interested in Oga’den, the second western nations interested in the Horn of Africa and the third being ethnic Somalis from Oga’den residing in the diaspora. The objective of this perception management strategy was simple. It was to create the perception that a viable and legitimate peace process was currently underway in Oga’den involving stakeholders that could impact facts on the ground. The purpose of this strategy was to close the door on the internationalization of conflict resolution efforts focused on Oga’den following the embarrassing so-called “elections” which took place in Ethiopia towards the end of May, 2010 resulting in the ruling party and its allies securing 445 out of 447 seats in the national parliament.

To analysts this was a curious announcement by the regime. The United Western Somali Liberation Front (UWSLF), the “islamist rebel group” referred to in the report was clearly a spent force residing mainly in Somalia having had no operational capacity in Oga’den since days long gone when it used to call itself Al-Itihaad Al-Islaami fii ******* (AIAI in Oga’den) a franchised offshoot of the larger Al-Itihaad organization assigned to operate in Oga’den. What was interesting to analysts was that the very same Ethiopian regime that had announced the surrender of this organization had not claimed to have any military engagements with them since the 1990’s. However, suddenly, their surrender was being cast as a major achievement. All of a sudden, the regimes officials were speaking up this surrender to the press and anyone who would listen. They had hoped it would get major traction in the media. They were wrong. It became clear to them that peace with the Oga’den National Liberation Front (ONLF) was what was needed regain the confidence of oil investors and cast off accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Oga’den by credible international actors.

 

Only a few days after the May 2010 election, Ethiopian dictator Melez Zenawi announced that his regime would soon enter into an agreement with the ONLF. This announcement again came as a surprise and to analysts it was yet another curious development. Could it be that this announcement was for real?. It had been widely known that the ONLF had always been open to direct talks with the Ethiopian regime subject to the presence of a third party international mediator with talks being held in a neutral venue. Could it be that the Melez Zenawi regime was now genuinely ready for peace?

 

On the 2nd of June 2010, the Oga’den National Liberation Front (ONLF) issued a statement stating “A claim made by Ethiopian Prime Minister, Melez Zenawi at his most recent press conference that his regime will "soon sign an agreement" with the Oga’den National Liberation Front (ONLF) has no basis in reality and is intended to mislead the international community in general and foreign oil firms in particular. The ONLF wishes to make clear that we have not been, and currently are not, in discussions with this regime.” The ONLF statement went on to say “The ONLF has maintained a principled position that any negotiations with this regime can only take place under the auspices of the international community in a neutral venue with a third neutral party mediator. This regime has consistently refused neutral third party mediation under the auspices of the international community.”

 

If the Ethiopian regime was not talking to the ONLF, then who were they going to enter into a peace agreement with? It seems that the regime itself was not even certain as the agreement expected was later played down when a few unknown figures quietly arrived in Addis Ababa claiming to be senior ONLF officials. The regime was faces with an embarrassing reality. Not one known figure within the ONLF leadership showed up in Addis Ababa to support the regimes claims that it was a about to secure a deal with a major faction of the ONLF. Ethiopia had been had. Moreover, credible reports indicate that individuals who showed up in Addis Ababa counted among them people with a long standing relationship with ONLF intelligence. In short, it was a fumble on the part of the regime and damage control was urgently required.

 

As in all cases when people in power miscalculate, someone has to pay. In July 2010, the regime identified that person as non other than the so-called President of their puppet administration in Oga’den. He was promptly removed from office and replaced with his notorious security chief known to most as Abdi Iley. However, this move was not enough. Something had to be done for Ethiopia to save face. Following this embarrassment, the Ethiopian regime dispatched none other than the notorious General Gebre, known to many as the butcher of Mogadisho, to salvage what he could. It was immediately decided that another meeting needed to be held, this time in Washington DC with individuals in the Oga’den diaspora who had ties to the regime. The thinking was that another attempt could be made to convince the world that the ONLF had entered into a peace process with the Ethiopian regime. Ethiopia had calculated that by meeting with a few Diasporans having no legitimacy or constituency, it could dupe the U.S. administration into participating as a mediator thereby giving the process some legitimacy. By August 1st 2010 it was clear that there would be no third party mediator and Ethiopia’s delegation would meet alone with a few individuals in a hotel in downtown Washington DC. There was little fanfare for the meetings and at its conclusion it was announced simply that there would be further meetings, this time inside Ethiopia. Another failure.

 

While General Gebre’s gamble seems to have flopped, he no doubts will continue his efforts building on his experience in Somalia to carry water for the regime as he seeks to build castles in the sky by forwarding the notion that there is a peace process underway in Oga’den with the ONLF on one side and the regime on the other. What General Gebre and his boss Melez Zenawi fail to recognize is that peace is made with those who yield true power in Oga’den, those who command the armed forces and have the loyalty of the Somali people there. While meetings with a few desperate Diasporans may be convenient for the regime, at the end of the day they are left with the same reality on the ground. The ONLF is still there and still attacking troops of the regime inflicting casualties and gaining momentum on the battlefield.

Ethiopia continues to build castles in the clouds failing to recognize that you cannot build on a foundation that is not really there.

 

Oga’den Online Editorial