Scenarios Of Coming Wars, by Dr. Abdishakur

[NASSIR]

Scenarios Of Coming Wars Dr. Abdishakur Jowhar — --- — 20 February, 2005

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“And we made from water every living thing; will they (the scientists, the atheists and the agnostics ) then not believe?†Holy Qur'an, Sura Anbiyaa (21 ), Ayat 30.

 

"And Allah has created every animal from water" (Al-Nur[24]:45 ).

 

 

Deconstructing Some Euphuisms Peace Keeping Force: Unadulterated nonsense. If the warlords are able to disarm peacefully, they will also be able to keep the peace, and there will be no need for a peacekeeping force. If the warlords don’t disarm peacefully then what is required to disarm them is not a peace keeping force, but a robust force which will make peace forcibly and act as the armed security agent of the incipient state until such a time that sufficient national force can be reconstituted. In other words forcibly disarming the warlord will take a war and an army. If that army is from another it will be an Occupation Force by necessity not a Peace Keeping Force. Let us call a spade a spade. Sometimes truth hurts but it always allows for clarity of thought.

 

IGAD Peace Keeping Force: Complete Orwellian misnomer. Uganda is offering a force of 2200. Kenya is offering none. Sudan, Djibouti and Eritrea are sitting on the fence so far and are likely to contribute only a nominal force, if any, for reasons that will become clear later. The proposed force is therefore an Ethiopian Force.

 

Ask and ye shall know

 

Ethiopia has been shy about placing a number on the size of troops it will provide for the “Peace Keeping Forceâ€. Ethiopia has its own strategic rationale for keeping the size of their contribution elusive. We can develop a rough estimate however by considering two numbers. The first number is 1600: that is the length of the Ethiopian Somali border in kilometers. No body will ever know or count the number of Ethiopian troops that will crossed or have already crossed 1600 km of unguarded border in some unmonitored dark corner of the world. The second number is 20, 000; the number of troops president Abdillahi Yusuf requested. The Homeless President may be a bad dude but he is by no means a foolish one. And no one can doubt that he knows a thing or two about military and warlord matters; he has worked exclusively in these two fields of endeavor for all of his life.

 

It is not only the size of Ethiopian force that is not known, the answers to other crucial questions remain shrouded in mystery; what is the mandate of such a force? What will be its rules of engagement? Who sets these rules up? This pacification force, will it be led by Somali officials or by Ethiopian generals? What mechanism will be instituted to prevent abuse of the local population by a poorly disciplined fighting force? Who will be responsible for punishing the individuals in that force who act outside the rules of engagement? Who will determine when it is time for them to leave? If the Occupation Force decides to transform itself to a Colonial Force will Somalis be left with any legally binding recourse to kick them out? If the Occupying Force decides to create its own puppet government in a small town in Somalia that will repeatedly authorize its stay (an age old colonial tactic ) will Somalis have a mechanism that can side step such a puppet government, like an internationally organized referendum for independence. Somalis have signed treaties with the European colonialists in the 19th century. Now Somalis are about to lose their sovereignty once again, for a short time as the proponents of Ethiopian led IGAD force hope and a for a very long time as its opponents fear. Either way is it not wise to conclude an international treaty to safeguard the existence of a Somali nation in the future? Shall we not remember the metaphor of the camel and the tent. Would it not a much better situation if the Somali people ask for UN trusteeship for a limited term instead of calling in an old enemy turned suspect-ally to take over?

 

Ethiopian Motives

 

Ethiopia’s commitment to the issue of finding a solution to the Somali crisis is difficult to over state. They have spent time, effort, cash and they have occasionally engaged in intimidation and subterfuge to bring about the election of their man to the Somali presidency. Since his election Ethiopians have made it amply clear their commitment to provide the necessary muscle to force the establishment of their solution on the ground and by force if necessary. This level of commitment should raise a red flag in any healthy mind.

 

Meles Zenawi, the man who makes all the decisions that matter in Ethiopia, has studied medicine before joining the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF ) in 1974. He is by no means devoid of benevolence. However no one I know is naïve enough to believe that his determination to resolve the Somali crisis is based on the love and care he harbors for the Somali people. It is important for Somalis to understand Meles Zenawi, his motivation and the context that dictates his behavior.

 

Meles Zenawi has already committed the cardinal sin of the vast majority of Africa’s rulers. He has allowed himself to be irreversibly fixed to the seat of power. This has condemned him to the futile effort of preserving his power at the expense of the development of an institutionally based state power that can weld together his nation that remains badly fractured by ethnic and linguistic rivalries. One could imagine that his foray into Somali politics represents an externalization of his internal problems and an effort to rally Ethiopians around his rule. And why not, all strong men before him have bought time with such a maneuver. But even though he faces an assortment of armed opposition groups scattered around in his country and threatening mayhem Prime Minster Zenawi is not as yet desperate enough to resort to this last ditch maneuver.

 

Zenawi presides over a nation of 67 million that has become the poster child of poverty, and whose name has become synonymous with hardship, starvation and shocking statistics. He is aware that some 80% of his population is dependent for their survival upon rain fed agricultural and pastoral subsistence economy. He is also aware that periodic failure of rainfall, which has devastated his nation for centuries, is indeed becoming more frequent driven by global climate changes. Droughts have accelerated from a baseline of one every 15 years a century ago to the current rate of one every 2-5 years. The infamous drought of 1984 was quickly followed by others in 1987, 1991, 93, 99 and in 2004. There is a population explosion on foot as well; with a growth rate of 2. 5-3. 5% the Ethiopian population is expected to double by the year 2025, and this is happening in era in which there is less and less water to go around. Thirst, water, draught are nightmares that haunted all Ethiopian rulers. And now it has multiplied by several degrees and it has become for them a nightmare that happens at night and during the day as well.

 

In spite of the centuries old thirst Ethiopia is rich in water resources. Ethiopia’s Lake Tana and its blue Nile is the source of the 80% of the Nile water that reach the great and ancient nation of Egypt. Yet Ethiopia is prevented from extensive utilization of this water by the force of treaties concluded in 1929 between Great Britain and Egypt and between Sudan and Egypt in 1959. The waters that follow from the highlands of Ethiopia have enabled the rise of successive civilizations in the banks of the River Nile and its delta. The life of Egyptians is dependent entirely on the Nile’s water. Egypt is experiencing its own Population explosion. (Growth rate 2. 5%, current population 70 million expected to double in 2025 ) The Egyptians need much more water than ever before. They can tolerate no further decrease in water supplies for that would essentially mean death, and they have repeatedly made it clear they may as well die fighting.

 

Meles Zenawi knows that all conflicts in Ethiopia, the internal insurgency, his war with Eritrea, the land locking of his nation even his own rebellion against the old order have all been stoked and kept burning at one point or the other by nations down stream to the blue Nile. Indeed the only time the Egyptian made 7. 92 mm Rifle (Hakim ) was pressed into service was against Ethiopia in the first Somali/Ethiopian war of 1964.

 

At least in the current environment and in recent history the water argument between Egypt and Ethiopia has been a Zero Sum game. Ethiopians of all political stripes are astounded that they are expected to abide by treaties between Britain and Egypt in which they had absolutely no part. Somalis do understand the Ethiopian’s dilemma. They had experienced a similar problem themselves whereby they are learning to live with the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty of November 29, 1954, a treaty in which they had no part in its negotiation or signature and in which Somali territories of Haud and Reserve Area were given to Ethiopia. But that is old history.

 

Water Wars

 

Zenawi is determined to use the Nile water to pull his people out of poverty. He believes that Egypt will prevent his attempts in anyway it can. Recently he expressed the opinion that Egypt may indeed be arming itself for a war in East Africa. (See Addis Tribune Feb 11, 2005 ). Boutros Boutros Ghali (Former UN Secretary General, former Egyptian Foreign Minster ) shares Zenawi’s worries and warns “competition for water resources could provoke wars in Africa and the Middle East†(See BBC Feb 2, 2005 ).

 

Meles Zenawi also knows that a direct war on Ethiopia will be highly ineffective, given the distance and all. A much more effective strategy for Egypt is to remain with the old approach of keeping Ethiopians perpetually unhinged by internal and regional conflicts. The Oromo Liberation Front, ****** Liberation Front, Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict, Amharic nostalgia, tightening the land lock status and many other levers of destabilization could be tweaked to bring pressure on the Ethiopians and to have some control on their attempts to quench their thirst.

 

Somalis on their part must come to understand that t is impossible to appreciate Ethiopian motives without considering the problem of thirst. Terms that Somalis need to learn include riparian states, Nile Basin Initiative, the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Egyptian Sudan treaty.

 

Such an understanding is important because Somalis whether they like it or not are an integral part of the Nile equation. Zenawi may have indeed reached the conclusion that having his “men†in power in Somalia or at least having a strong hand in the politics of Somalia will be the best protection for his back as he turns around west to drink from the Nile. Egypt and other forces are already players in the field. There will be other moves in this dance. The chessboard is now the disintegrated territory of the defunct republic of Somalia. Expect that the Ethiopian-Eritrea conflict to warm up. Expect that Sudan and Djibouti will sit on their hands (with a lot of encouragement from up north ) and that Ethiopia will be left alone holding onto the tar baby. All this is also part of the Nile equation. The players are out there, the field is Somalia and Somali tribes are the chess pieces.

 

Somali Beneficiaries

 

Ethiopian intervention in Somali politics will breathe fresh life into the dying fiery brand of Islamic fundamentalism represented by Somalia’s El Itixad El Islami in Somali society. It will transform this group from hand chopping marginality to the absolute center of Somali political power.

 

Any invasion of Ethiopian forces will awaken the dormant nationalism of Somalis that becomes a factor only when an external enemy is at hand. The forces of nationalism will merge with those of Islamic fundamentalism and breathe fresh legs to the fundamentalist behemoth. Al-itahd is the only political organization that has a national fellowship and infrastructure that reaches beyond the tribe. Al-itihad also has the ideological basis and the secret cell-based structures that can readily fight and succeed in guerilla warfare. This dark force will be able to appeal to powerful imperatives of tribal honor, Jihad and Somali nationalism all at the same time. Little Amirs will crop up in villages and towns and cities and rural areas. Foreign Salafists will pour into the lawless country. You think Abu Musab Al-Zerqawi has prospered under American occupation of Iraq, just watch Al-itihad go after the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. You just watch.

 

The warlords are opportunistic predators; they are not driven by an ideological imperative or any deep seated believe system. In other words there is nothing that they would die for. They will yield to a more powerful force after initial resistance of testing the mettle of the opposing power. They will have to feel the pain first before they relent though. One should know that they will sacrifice many foot soldiers and all the civilians necessary but only if their territory of dominance is challenged. The Ethiopian army will stay out of their way when possible, bypass them at other times and give them a choice they cannot refuse when absolutely necessary.

 

Ethiopian forces are unlikely to pass beyond one or two Somali regions close to their border. Their main objective is to secure a base for building a Somali force under the nominal direction of puppet regime. It will be this Ethiopian sponsored and guided †Somali force†that will then fight and subdue all other Somalis who oppose Ethiopian dominance. The whole project in Ethiopia’s current thinking will be paid for by others as a loan or grant to a Somali state leaving Ethiopian in a win-win situation. The general principles of Ethiopia’s strategy will coincide with Abdillahi Yussuf’s three pronged plan (see my previous article the Homeless President ) and may take few years before the Mogadishu problem is tackled.

 

Somali tribes are no match for the army of a nation-state. No tribal structure anywhere in the world has been able to withstand the organizational structure of even the weakest state. Tribes could be readily set against each other for relatively mundane matters like revenge, tribal bride, corruption etc. Somali tribes are wild and lawless they are peaceful and complaint with orders whenever faced with state power.

 

Eventually Ethiopia will be driven out of Somalia. Somalis will remain under a brutal regime of local viscous Amirs or under equally vicious secular Warlords. The water wars will continue. And the Somali territory will remain a proxy field of Nile battles.

 

Dr. Abdishakur Jowhar

abdijowhar@yahoo. com

[NASSIR]

Tolstoy, it is an admirable article. I haven't read an article with such a powerful message and anylitically high caliber in a long time.

[Dhagax-Tuur]

A/calaykum.

 

 

Overall, an interesting article.

 

Meles Zenawi, the man who makes all the decisions that matter in Ethiopia, has studied medicine before joining the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF ) in 1974.

Dropped out of Med School and attended M.A for Biz studies. [a little correction]

 

This dark force will be able to appeal to powerful imperatives of tribal honor, Jihad and Somali nationalism all at the same time.

What does it mean? Is he for or against an Islamic organisation present in the Somali political arena? I don't like the tone and use of word.

[xiinfaniin]

This article appeals to my intrinsic sentiment toward Ethiopia and its motives. It invokes my religious and patriotic passions, and, I suppose, I should be looking for my old and rusty AK-47 and head to the frontline trenches!

 

BUT again, I realize and sadly so that Ethiopia is no new foe to us and it has crossed the border, invaded major cities, and caused death and destruction many times in the last ten years or so! The freedom fighters that I am about to join were/have been arrested by Ethiopian security and its allies in Hargiesa, Mogadishu, Baidoba, and Galkaio. The M-o-o-r-y-a-a-n-i-s who are vowing to fight today with Ethiopia, were the same ones whom Ethiopia paid yesterday to assassinate or arrest its enemy in Mogadishu!

 

So what should I do? I should sit it out and wait, as it’s quite possible that the only solution to dilute Ethiopia’s regional hegemony and prevent Somalia’s disintegration is to have a functioning government that could reinstate the national army of its own, albeit by the calculated support of Ethiopia, and establish stability of sort.

 

Of course I still think foreign troops without Ethiopia is visible.

 

I should be ready though for the day when the attacking army of the evil infidels invades!