A Dark Deja Vu in Somalia

[Castro]

A Dark Deja Vu in Somalia

 

Analysis: The war between Islamist rebels and neighboring Ethiopia recalls an era when the agendas driving Africa's conflicts were never exclusively local, even if most of the victims were

By TONY KARON

 

To many Africans old enough to remember the Cold War, the bloody conflict currently unfolding in Somalia will be awfully familiar. Back before the Berlin Wall fell, localized power struggles all over the continent often turned into full-scale regional wars when the protagonists cast themselves or were cast — however improbably — as torch-bearers for Washington or Moscow. Such association would bring boundless diplomatic and financial support, not to mention boatloads of weapons and other military assistance, enabling local strongmen to wage self-serving wars for years on end. There's no Cold War any longer, of course, but in the case of Somalia, the"Global War on Terror"may be having a similar effect.

 

The U.S. has backed Ethiopia's military intervention on behalf of the beleaguered and unpopular — but internationally recognized — Somali government, in what looks set to be a protracted war that could draw in most of Somalia's neighbors. Washington's reason for supporting the offensive, rather than calling for an end to hostilities, is that the enemies of the Ethiopians and the Somali government are an Islamist movement viewed by the U.S. as in cahoots with al-Qaeda.

 

But the"war-on-terror"prism conceals the complexity of a conflict based on clan, political and regional rivalries that, in some cases, date back to the 1960s. And regional analysts fear that the tension will be exacerbated rather than resolved by the responses of outside players.

 

While the U.S. and Ethiopia have backed the Somali government and the warlords that operate under its umbrella on the banner of fighting al-Qaeda, the Islamists have allegedly rallied financial and military support from such quarters as Saudi Arabia, Libya, Syria and Iran by painting themselves as victims of an Islamophobic Western conspiracy. And Osama bin Laden certainly helped Ethiopia and the Somali government make their case for U.S. support when, in October, he warned Western governments to stay out of Somalia.

 

Ethiopia is not simply acting as Washington's regional policeman, however. It has a long-running border dispute with Somalia that led to two years of open warfare in the late 1970s, and it sees the nationalist inclination of the Islamists — and their vow to take control of the ****** desert from Ethiopia — as an immediate threat to its own interests. (The Islamists actually back secessionist insurgents in that region.) Given Ethiopia's intervention on behalf of the government, it comes as no surprise that Addis Ababa's fiercest foe, neighboring Eritrea, is supporting and arming the Somali Islamists.

 

For all the involvement of outside players, however, the Somali conflict remains a domestic power struggle at heart. It pits the Transitional Federal Government, a product of years of painstaking horse-trading among rival clan warlords, against the Council of Islamic Courts, a loose Islamist alliance strongly nationalist in character — which has vowed to break the power of the warlords and unite all of Somalia under Sharia law (although it happens to be led by clan rivals of the dominant clan in the government camp).

 

Like the Taliban in Afghanistan in the early 1990s, the Islamists' displacement of hated warlords in southern and central Somalia was largely welcomed by the population. However, the strictures they have imposed on the population in the name of a fiercely conservative interpretation of Islam have also generated resentment. But the regional and international context of Somalia is quite different from that of Afghanistan a decade ago: The Islamists cannot prevail as long as Ethiopia is willing to lend the beleaguered government its military muscle — well-armed and trained by U.S. advisers, in contrast to the ragtag and mostly teenaged light infantry of the Islamists.

 

But it is equally unlikely that Ethiopian military power will subdue the Islamist challenge inside Somalia. Indeed, the government's reliance on forces of the old enemy is unlikely to endear it to the Somali citizenry. Although Ethiopia promises to withdraw its forces within days, they had been active in Somalia for months before their presence was officially acknowledged, and a speedy withdrawal would leave a vacuum that the Islamists would once again fill. Yet having effectively repelled an Islamist advance on Baidoa, the Ethiopians risk losing much of their tactical advantage if they tried to capture Islamist strongholds, particularly the capital. Their goal, instead, according to Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, is to weaken the Islamists militarily in order to force them to negotiate with the government from a weaker position. But the fierce fighting last weekend and the passions stoked by open Ethiopian intervention may militate against any new compromise.

 

Instead, the escalating war will likely ensure that Somalia remains a failed state for the foreseeable future, a battleground not only for local clan and political rivalries but also for regional and international strategic"great games."There are unlikely to be any clear winners any time soon, but the losers almost certainly will be the Somali people, who after more than 16 years of war, warlordism and famine, can only look forward to more of the same.

 

Time

[Castro]

the escalating war will likely ensure that Somalia remains a failed state for the foreseeable future, a battleground not only for local clan and political rivalries but also for regional and international strategic"great games."There are unlikely to be any clear winners any time soon, but the losers almost certainly will be the Somali people, who after more than 16 years of war, warlordism and famine, can only look forward to more of the same.

This time, however, we're taking Ethiopia down with us.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

I doubt we will be taking Ethiopia down with us.

 

 

We always sink by ourselves

[Castro]

^ True, but this time, they're in the pool with us. We used to swim alone but now they put on their shiniest Spandex and jumped right in.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

This time, however, we're taking Ethiopia down with us.

Nin dhar cad wato, dhiiqo waa iska ilaaliyaa ayaa la yiri. Ama si kale ha u dhahee, guri muraayad leh qof degan dhagax ma tuuro, ayaa la dhahay.

 

Ha quursan, Kaastaro. A week ago non-existent, illegit dowlad ku sheega only controlled Baydhabo. It still controls meeshaas, inta kale qabqablihii ayaa xukumo. Amxaarada liked the former status quo, keeping each warlord's enclave in check and arming each side to hate the other. If the stooge, ultimate puppet madaxweyne ku sheega thinks Sanaawi would let him govern asagaa arki doono, let alone Soomaali people would let him rule Xamar. I repeat Xamar isn't degmooyin, oo laba milyan oo qof ayaa degan.

 

Xabashada, however, rather prefer that -- the chaos and dagaalooge rule -- than a strong proctectorate regime even. Chaos and anarchy that can easily be manipulated is better than a weak, non-existent [in the eyes of Soomaalida], even if it is a puppet.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Wishful thinking Castro?

 

Do you expect the Somalis to start fighting the Ethiopians.

 

Didn't you know we are all Somali-Ethiopians...

[Somali_Friend]

Originally posted by Castro:

^ True, but this time, they're in the pool with us. We used to swim alone but now they put on their shiniest Spandex and jumped right in.

Castro,

Nothing to you personal, but let the monday morning quarterbacks make some money analysing something they still do not understand.

 

Eritrea is not coming now, in case you missed it.

 

Eritrea has 1000km border with us. If instead they choose to fight to the last southern Somali against ethiopia, we will oblige, but they will not show up.

Their last soldiers are crying in Mugadishu. They coud not find a ricketty boat to take them home.

 

There is no regional war.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Didn't you know we are all Somali-Ethiopians...

What the... Ha dhihin saas. Amxaarka meesha ku jiro wuxuu rabay ayaa saan ahayd. War ha niyad jabin. Believe Xabash in uu dal Soomaaliyeed xukumo ma jiri doonto, and don't even give a faint optimistism the non-existent, puppet, stooge dowlad ku sheegaan burburtay.

 

Even hadee Maxkamadaha meesha ka baxaan, it will be an ugly clan wars that we witnessed the 16 years, especially a one that will surpass the early '90s. Eratareeya and Liibiya will arm angry clans Xabasho loo soo kaxeystay.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

Miskiin your enemy is not Ethiopia it is your fellow Somalis, who are cheering for the Ethiopians.

 

What can we do when we have Somalis who hate each other to death.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

They are virus, they will be eradicated. Believe me, they aren't that many. Soomaali badan ayaa soo kacay Amxaar duqeyneyso markee maqleen dhulkeena Soomaaliya. Marka don't ever, ever use "Soomaali-Xabash," Soomaali iyo Xabash dab iyo biyo ayee isku yihiin, neither can get together.

 

Xabashada, like the '77 uu Soviet u hiiliye, waxaa this time usoo hiilisay Mareykanka. Without Soviet, maanta Soomaali Galbeed ayaa fadhin lahayn, and without Mareykanka today waxaan ma dhaceen. Soomaali waa dad Muslimiin eh, Muslimkii usoo hiilin lahaana iyagaa midba mid loo rifayaa. Afrikaankii kalena aan isku qaarada ahayn Xabashta la saftay iskaba dhaaf, oo Soomaali Afrikaan uma heystaan inaa nahnay.

 

Marka ha quursan.

[Wisdom_Seeker]

AS you say bro miskiin. You truly are optimistic

[ElPunto]

Originally posted by Castro:

quote:

the escalating war will likely ensure that Somalia remains a failed state for the foreseeable future, a battleground not only for local clan and political rivalries but also for regional and international strategic"great games."There are unlikely to be any clear winners any time soon, but the losers almost certainly will be the Somali people, who after more than 16 years of war, warlordism and famine, can only look forward to more of the same.

This time, however, we're taking Ethiopia down with us.

I think this is nonsense - If you look at the way a single authority was established by the ICU so quickly after the initial skirmish in Mogadishu and now the same for the TFG after their initial skirmish around Baidoa. This tells you that establishing authority in Somalia is much easier than pundits had prophesied. And that there is little general appetite for war. Indeed, it seems the majority of civilians are ready to embrace anyone who wants to bring any decent semblance of order. How well the general populace embraces the TFG will depend on the removal of Ethiopians and not resurrecting the depravity of the warlords originally chased out.