British observers stay for Somaliland elections, despite al-Qaeda warning

[Jacaylbaro]

On the eve of presidential elections in the breakaway nation of Somaliland last week, an al-Qaeda-linked group used an audio message to warn the population against voting. Ahmed Abdi Godane, leader of the al-Shabab, released a message stating that “those who take part in those so-called elections will face the consequences”. The threat came just weeks after the shooting of a policeman in Somaliland and the arrest of 15 suspected Islamic terrorists, including six women, in possession of bomb-making equipment. Their arrest came months after a car bomb attack in October 2009 that left 25 dead and dozens injured in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa.

 

Despite the security concerns, an international team of 59 election observers – including several Britons – were in Somaliland to monitor the elections. There were supposed to have been more but some organisations, such as the Electoral Institute for the Sustainability of Democracy in Africa, decided that the security risk was too great. The observers spent the day at polling stations across the country where some felt that they would be vulnerable to terrorist attack. But Briton Michael Walls, joint coordinator of the observation team, was confident that everything had been done to secure the election observers’ safety. “We were heartened at the good spirit in which campaigning took place and optimistic that the vigilance of Somalilanders, and their evident commitment to a peaceful election, would ensure that the small minority who wished to disrupt the process would be prevented from doing so,” he said.

 

The conduct and result of last week’s elections are seen as crucial in determining the future of a country that declared itself independent in 1991 following a brutal civil war. In the eyes of the international community, Somaliland, a nation the size of England and Wales combined, does not officially exist, but Somalilanders are hopeful that this could change. “A successful free and fair election will have a huge impact on setting Somaliland on the right path to democracy, prosperity and international recognition,” says political analyst Hussein Dualeh. But equally, electoral irregularities, violence and terrorist attacks could push Somaliland closer towards the lawlessness of neighbouring Somalia. As well as issues with Islamic militants, Somaliland has also had ongoing conflicts with rebels in the semi-autonomous regions of Puntland, Sool and Sanagwell. Security issues, together with bitter disputes over voter registration, have delayed these elections by almost two years, which in turn has had its own destabilising effect on a country that had, until recently, enjoyed relative peace and security for nearly two decades.

 

“Terrorists live in the seams between countries,” says Michael Chertoff, former US head of Homeland Security under the Bush administration, explaining why, like the border regions of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the unguarded frontiers of the Sahel are attractive to terrorists. Stretching from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, the Sahel is increasingly being seen as the new front line in the war on terror but, ironically, the growing problem of terrorism in Somaliland might present an opportunity. Although the predominantly Sufi form of Islam practised in Somaliland does not lend itself to extremism, Western powers are concerned at the presence of an increasing number of radical clerics in the country, as well as the porous border with Somalia. With its strategically important position on the Gulf of Aden and a deep-water port in Berbera, Somaliland is positioning itself as an important ally in the war on terror. While conscious that too close a relationship with the Americans might not be popular with its population, the government also recognises the advantages that collaboration with the US could bring in terms of finance, long-term stability and, ultimately, international recognition.

 

As well as qualifying the country for aid and support from international financial institutions, recognition would also allow mining and oil companies access to the country’s natural resources. Large-scale extraction of oil, coal, gemstones and minerals could transform this country of 3.5 million, where over 40 per cent of the population live in extreme poverty. Hussein Dualeh is optimistic. “I firmly believe that Somaliland stands a good chance of being recognised as a sovereign state in the next five years if this election is conducted successfully and results in good governance thereafter,” he says.

 

When the rains come in Hargeisa, a mass grave beside the river is exposed. Bones protrude from the red earth, some still tied at the wrist. At the side of the airport road, a rusting Russian tank, plastered with election posters, is a reminder of Somaliland’s war-ravaged past and a symbol of hope for a democratic future. The long-awaited election, held on 26 June, will offer a major clue to Somaliland’s future.

[Jacaylbaro]

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